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Pauline: Jets could pick RB in first or second rounds


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20 minutes ago, choon328 said:

The Jets currently don't have a RB on the roster worth starting. The entire offense revolves around the running game and play action. Without the threat of a good RB there is no threat of play action. If the Jets don't have aRB they feel can be the bell cow on the roster and feel like only 3 on the RB's in this draft can be the guy from the start AND your ability to run the ball is the most important part of the offense running their scheme the way they want to then you certainly have to consider one of those 3 guys late in round 1.

The entire offense is based on a quality blocking scheme that you can just plug low investment running backs into. No team takes first round running backs to run outside zone. Given two of the three top backs in this draft aren't even good fits for the scheme, the idea that there are only three starting worthy backs in this draft for the Jets is asinine.

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If the 1st three picks were:  QB, RB, OG I wouldn't be mad at all. I know you can get running back production without drafting a RB high. But damn some star power on this team would be nice. Some

Najee or Etienne...count me in at 23. Then get a guard at 34.

If the Jets take a RB with either #23 or #34 then that RB had better be great at picking up the blitz because without upgrading the OL our new shiny QB will be blitzed 2/3 of the time and the RB won't

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3 hours ago, k-met57 said:

Najee or Etienne...count me in at 23. Then get a guard at 34.

I think if a top OL is there at 23 you have to take him. Top RB at 34 - was hoping for a NC RB in the 3rd round though.

 

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1 hour ago, Leftylarry said:

How about best player available in every round with a focus on those position, often works much better.

It'd have to be BAP with an eye on what else is left. I wouldn't reach based on what's left, but if you're talking about a group of players without much difference in ranking - particularly at 23 where we pick so quickly again after that - then it should make a difference if 2 of each position go in between there. Some positions the dropoff will be very steep; others negligible (or possibly you'd get the same player anyway). 

e.g. looking at the SI mock from a week or so ago, which was posted in the draft forum here.

They had Darrisaw going at 19. It seems unlikely he'll slide that far in reality, but we've seen far bigger shocks & slides over the years than that. However if he's really all that, and just dropped because of runs at other positions, then I'd be totally behind JD throwing a later 3rd rounder to move up (even if that pick is going to Miami). If the OL run is a bit earlier, rather than the 4th-5th-6th ones going at 19-21-22, then that changes things.

It's just a guess of theirs where players will go, but after they had us taking a corner at 23, there was only one more OL taken (predictably to Baltimore) from 24 through 33. So unless that BAP OL at 23 grades heads & tails above our next-best (or next-few best) on the board, the position can wait and you'll get pretty much - or exactly - the same player on the OL.

Ditto at corner, which is another need position. If there's an early run by #22, ffs I wouldn't want them rushing to the podium to take the 5th-best corner. Nor the 5th best edge rusher. Nor the 7th best OL. #23 is too early to be dipping that low at those positions. Not unless the steep (and consensus) drop-off was between the 5th and 6th edge or whatever position.

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If the Jets snagged Harris or Etienne at 23/34 and went OL for at the other, and then OL again before RD 5, that's probably the best opening day offense the Jets have fielded in a decade.

Kicking the can down the road at Edge and CB, but there are plenty of 1 year options left in FA at those positions, and maybe even find a starter in the 3rd rd(assuming they didn't got QB, RB, OL, OL).

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I would typically advocate for taking a RB in the mid rounds, but recent history suggests that may not be the best approach.

In the past few years, the late first and early second rounds have been a bit of a sweet spot for some of the best game changing running backs in the NFL today.  This is where players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook are being drafted.

The Jets drafted high athleticism players last year, and I expect them to continue to do so this year.  Etienne and Harris fit the mold.  I think both of them are going to be great NFL players, and maybe for once, the Jets will take a high profile RB and take advantage of young, fresh legs instead of giving out big second contracts to players with wear on their tires.

I would be completely happy with QB, RB, and WR being the first three positions drafted by the Jets.  It would certainly be a breath of fresh air and show a dedication to building around the new rookie QB putting him in the best position to succeed.

Joe Douglas is going to continue building up the OL, but from everything I have read, there should be some great value for zone blocking OL in the mid rounds, and I expect him to take advantage of the deep class.

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4 hours ago, BroadwayRay said:

If what he says is true, the draft could look something like this:

#2 - QB

#23 - RB

#34 - OL

#66 - CB/WR/TE

#87 - CB/WR/TE

This team has like two linebackers.  If we don't come away with at least one from this draft, JD will have blown it.  This is a very deep draft for lb and someone like Dylan Brooks should be drafted in the middle rounds, hell maybe even two. 

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3 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

2- qb- wilson

23- oline: vera tucker/jenkins etc

34- rb: ettienne or williams

66- wr: tylan wallace

86- te: tremble

There is ur 1st 5 picks my friends.

Change 66 to the Ohio St center and I’m fully onboard.

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6 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

This team has like two linebackers.  If we don't come away with at least one from this draft, JD will have blown it.  This is a very deep draft for lb and someone like Dylan Brooks should be drafted in the middle rounds, hell maybe even two. 

To be fair, this team needs everything.

"Who should we draft?"

 

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It really is not far-fetched to think we take Harris or Etienne at #23.  Let's take an honest look at the first round.

They way I see it, there are nine elite prospects besides the five quarterbacks.  In no particular order: Pitts, Chase, Waddle, Smith, Sewell, Slater, Parsons, Horn and Surtain.  After that, there is little difference in relative value until well into the second round.  Both of the running backs are going to be successful in the NFL and - barring injury - will have long careers.  It is reasonable to expect good return on investment, especially when you consider that the other choices are not elite guys.  Both Harris and Etienne are elite, but like "guard only" prospects, running backs get devalued because you can find serviceable players later in the draft.    Plus there is the Covid 19 factor that has impacted draft evaluation this season.  No combine and many player who did not play last season adds uncertainty to the review of these players.   Harris has been destined for the first round since High School.  Etienne is a four year starter would have gone in the first-round last year.   Neither's review has been impacted by Covid.  I can understand the argument that they would aid the new identity that Douglas and Saleh are trying to build.  But consider the alternative.

I could live with it but still think a trade down will yield better results.  There will be interest from other teams and our roster could use the depth that a few additional 3d-5th round picks  can offer the team.  A trade back from #23 into the upper third of the second round will yield additional picks in the 3d and 4th rounds.  That pick will yield a starting caliber prospect who has the same relative value as the player taken at #23.  Additional 3d and 4th round picks - for this team, this year - will add valuable depth and starting prospects at guard, linebacker, running back and safety.  We have the roster spots.  It just makes sense to trade back.  We can always draft a first round running back.  They are available late in the first round every year.  But I understand the argument.

As one poster said in exasperation.  "We have to stop talking ourselves out of players who can score touchdowns."

 

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I dunno, RBs often have a short lifespan, is the timing right or do you muddle through with these guys, build a powerful infrastructure, develop your QB and then in 2022-23  draft a high end 1st rd / early second rd TB as a finishing piece, that seems to me to make more sense.

 

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45 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

What has the lifespan been on all the DL,CB,S we have selected in the 1st round. 

A weapon and an OL. Many different combinations will work but those should be the two components. My favorite choice includes a trade up for Smith or Waddle but Harris, Etienne or E. Moore would do quite nicely!

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4 hours ago, slats said:

Uh, I was responding to someone who wants to start a rookie QB, RB, and two OL. That would be four rookies on top of the rookies at HC and OC. Jets added bets at RB and OL this year, too, so it’s not trotting out the same-same. 
 
Installing a new offense is a huge job. Another huge job is preparing a rookie QB to start on opening day. In a more perfect world, I don’t do those two things in the same year. That being the situation the Jets are going to be in, I don’t want two rookie OL and a rookie RB on the field with him all learning the offense and the NFL at the same time, while my OC calls plays for the first time under a rookie head coach. One more rookie on the OL is plenty. They can find one starting guard from what’s already on the roster. Continuity being important on the OL. Becton, McGovern, Fant, Lewis/Van Roten, and a high-drafted rookie should be a decent or better OL in the zone scheme they’re implementing. 
 
Want a third rookie starter? Grab an Edge/CB/LB to start on defense with one of those picks over the least valued position in the sport. 

Based on your earlier posts, I agree with you that trading back from #23 will yield the best results for our rebuild.  It is what I would do. 

But let me give you a counter-argument.  Say we take Harris or Etienne at #23.  If we take two starting guards in the 3d and 4th rounds, that does not mean that they are going to be starting on day one.  In fact, it would make sense to sit them for part - if not all - of their rookie seasons.  This is particularly true of Meinerz and Green.  Both have some technique issues to sort out - nothing serious - since it is the upside we need from them.  As for a rookie running back, our current stable of backs include a new Jet in Coleman and three unproven young players.  It is not like they are veterans.  We can expect a certain amount of stupidity from whomever we play due to the foolishness of youth.  But it does makes some sense to add some solid tomorrow to this backfield. 

I too am looking to add a back.  I think our rebuilding club would get good service from Chuba Hubbard or Elijah Mitchell - both of whom are good fits for our zone scheme.  I would use the early picks for chess pieces.  But I understand the argument that Harris and Etienne can help us.     

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2 hours ago, clayton163v said:

I too am looking to add a back.  I think our rebuilding club would get good service from Chuba Hubbard or Elijah Mitchell - both of whom are good fits for our zone scheme.  I would use the early picks for chess pieces.  But I understand the argument that Harris and Etienne can help us.     

I certainly don't mind a back later in the draft. If they take one early, though, that will be a prime 20/20 hindsight move that will look absolutely awful. There will be ten guys, looking back from the future, that would've been much, much better fits. 

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12 hours ago, Leftylarry said:

I’m not buying in there, Ty Johnson fits what they want to do , they drafted Perine who can catch and ADams and Coleman are there for a reason also, I don’t agree that they will draft a RB that high.

Additionally, don’t  be surprised if Etienne is taken by Jax maybe at #25 or for sure at #33 , they have a boatload of picks and Etienne would make TL very comfy back there so he probably won’t be there at #34 either.

James Robinson had a very nice rookie year for them.  They shouldn't be looking RB.

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17 hours ago, DoubleDown said:

I would typically advocate for taking a RB in the mid rounds, but recent history suggests that may not be the best approach.

In the past few years, the late first and early second rounds have been a bit of a sweet spot for some of the best game changing running backs in the NFL today.  This is where players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook are being drafted.

The Jets drafted high athleticism players last year, and I expect them to continue to do so this year.  Etienne and Harris fit the mold.  I think both of them are going to be great NFL players, and maybe for once, the Jets will take a high profile RB and take advantage of young, fresh legs instead of giving out big second contracts to players with wear on their tires.

I would be completely happy with QB, RB, and WR being the first three positions drafted by the Jets.  It would certainly be a breath of fresh air and show a dedication to building around the new rookie QB putting him in the best position to succeed.

Joe Douglas is going to continue building up the OL, but from everything I have read, there should be some great value for zone blocking OL in the mid rounds, and I expect him to take advantage of the deep class.

^^^This^^^

For too long the Jets did the ass backwards.  We need more young bucks trying to prove it especially at the RB position.  Any of Etienne, Harris or Williams at 23 or 34.  

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20 hours ago, Leftylarry said:

When I do those simulators, yes terrific IOLs are available, who IMO will mostly all be gone by the end of the second rd but we will see.

I don’t see Landon Dickinson, Creed Humphrey, Meinerz, Ben Cleveland, even  Josh Meyers there in the 3rd , maybe Meyers with the first pick of the third, maybe.

 

I just did a simulation with PFF, and Kendrick Green, Ben Cleveland and Brady Christenson were all there in the 3rd round when the Jets were up.

Brady Christenson will most likely be gone by the 3rd round, but who knows.  I would love to take Green or Cleveland if they are there in the 3rd round.

 

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3 minutes ago, Alka said:

I just did a simulation with PFF, and Kendrick Green, Ben Cleveland and Brady Christenson were all there in the 3rd round when the Jets were up.

Brady Christenson will most likely be gone by the 3rd round, but who knows.  I would love to take Green or Cleveland if they are there in the 3rd round.

 

Christensen may fall because he's a typical over-aged BYU lineman, aged about 30.

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17 minutes ago, mrcoops said:

Christensen may fall because he's a typical over-aged BYU lineman, aged about 30.

I can't find his age anywhere, which  probably means he's at least 25. I read somewhere he did a two-year mission while at BYU.

 

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26 minutes ago, Alka said:

I just did a simulation with PFF, and Kendrick Green, Ben Cleveland and Brady Christenson were all there in the 3rd round when the Jets were up.

Brady Christenson will most likely be gone by the 3rd round, but who knows.  I would love to take Green or Cleveland if they are there in the 3rd round.

 

Brady Christiansen is going to be 25 years old in September 

he's the Nathan Shepherd of the OL 

 

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20 hours ago, derp said:

The entire offense is based on a quality blocking scheme that you can just plug low investment running backs into. No team takes first round running backs to run outside zone. Given two of the three top backs in this draft aren't even good fits for the scheme, the idea that there are only three starting worthy backs in this draft for the Jets is asinine.

they won't take an RB at 23

but day 2 RB feels about right, considering how little they have and how important running the football is to Saleh's program

Trey Sermon is the dude

 

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On 4/27/2021 at 10:45 AM, Maxman said:

If the 1st three picks were:  QB, RB, OG I wouldn't be mad at all.

I know you can get running back production without drafting a RB high. But damn some star power on this team would be nice. Some real explosiveness!

If the first three picks are still contributing starters 4 years from now and for the Jets and not another team, it will be the best draft the Jets have had since Mangini regardless of where they play on the field. 

Just get good players.  Lots of them. 

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20 hours ago, derp said:

The entire offense is based on a quality blocking scheme that you can just plug low investment running backs into. No team takes first round running backs to run outside zone. Given two of the three top backs in this draft aren't even good fits for the scheme, the idea that there are only three starting worthy backs in this draft for the Jets is asinine.

I hear the offense is heavily dependent on play action passing. If that is the case isn’t a threat at running back a prerequisite?

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9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Brady Christiansen is going to be 25 years old in September 

he's the Nathan Shepherd of the OL 

 

He'll have a longer NFL career than most 21 year old RBs, though. 

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I skipped to the last page of comments, but I am not opposed to taking a RB early.  Look, we all agree we need OLine, OLine and OLine help, but we need playmakers as well.  Tired of these crappy RBs too.  Get it done Joe!

(I rather trade down from 23 for late 1, and more 2s and 3s if possible.  Then get a RB with top R2 pick.)

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11 minutes ago, bitonti said:

they won't take an RB at 23

but day 2 RB feels about right, considering how little they have and how important running the football is to Saleh's program

Trey Sermon is the dude

 

They haven’t shied away from injury prone guys. Still like Nwangwu day 3.

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1 minute ago, slats said:

He'll have a longer NFL career than most 21 year old RBs, though. 

the key word in that sentence is most 

if the Jets draft a RB in rd 2/3 this draft i'd enjoy a charity bet that player's career length vs Brady Christiansen 

I agree speed outside zone backs don't have a long lifespan, but if a 25 year old prospect doesn't start right away he's not really a prospect anymore

 

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1 minute ago, derp said:

They haven’t shied away from injury prone guys. Still like Nwangwu day 3.

if JD's only draft can be summed up it's "Boom or Bust athletes"  and "loves to trade down"

all those guys, especially day 1 and 2, had rare workouts by some measure or another 

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9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

if JD's only draft can be summed up it's "Boom or Bust athletes"  and "loves to trade down"

all those guys, especially day 1 and 2, had rare workouts by some measure or another 

Also think many day three guys are drafted to play roles, not be starters, and fans will always hate that. But it’s also part of why they’re all team captains. Roster’s so bad they need some locks to contribute rather than all gambles on talent.

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