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Trade up and pick of AVT being scrutinized (merged)


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I agree.  I am so pissed we traded up for Revis when we could of got 2-3 mediocre to bad players

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah. While I get the fact that as a whole since the draft is a crap

At the end of the day the PFF analysts are a 6'9 foot failed baseball player, an Irishman who got the job because he was a good poster on an NFL forum, a lad who was the first person kicked off the ba

3 minutes ago, derp said:

I think the Vera-Tucker selection is nuanced. If it boiled down to athleticism to play guard, Kendrick Green who the Steelers took with pick 87 (Jets could have theoretically taken him with either third rounder) is probably more athletic than AVT and did an awesome job on outside zone plays last year.

They had him graded more highly than the pick they traded up to, he’s potentially got the versatility to play tackle (maybe a replacement for Fant down the road or a spot left tackle if Becton continues missing snaps), and he’s a definite day one starter on a line that can use one.

I don’t know what they would’ve done with the picks but it could have been significant. I’m boring and fall in the middle. Those picks are useful and the multiple swings on players are important. More importantly iOL isn’t exactly a premium position - to really justify the trade up and pick that high he probably needs to be a Pro Bowl guard. Safe bet to be good though which is at least helpful and the Pro Bowl level play isn’t exactly out of the question which is pretty cool. I think he’ll turn out well.

I agree and when I first heard the deal I thought maybe it was a little too much to give up but then thought about it and heard the Jets plan and  I feel better about it. I’m just saying I don’t think it’s some awful move like the analytics guys are saying.

One guy tweeted they could have had Darrisaw and Wyatt Davis instead of just Tucker.

Well maybe they didn’t like either of those guys for what their running or in general? 

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The thing that they seem to miss in their AVT trade vs Darrisaw at 23 argument is that Darrisaw is a tackle and the Jets were in the market for someone who could also play guard. It’s not complicated.

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6 minutes ago, undertow said:

Every GM has their own board and I know this may sound crazy but it's not always the same as a bunch of reporters and Youtube scouts.  Douglas obviously valued AVT much higher then what he could have got at 23 so he moved up.  Similarly and contrary to popular belief he probably didn't value Mims that much and had a bunch of players grouped together so he moved down last year.  What this years draft proved to me is he's not married to one draft ideology and is flexible....thankfully.

The thing I realized this year is the ego these YouTube/ twitter draft scouts have.

They get snarky and angry if someone dares  to disagree with them on a player.

It’s weird.

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1 minute ago, Beerfish said:

One of the guys the were going to pick in the 3rd round they got in the 4th round.

As with all things the value will be dependant on how the player turns out.  If he is a good long term starter it was a good move, of he is a pro bowler it was a fantastic move.

These analytics people like PFF believe it’s about the process and even if the results workout it wasn’t the  right move because their  numbers value  didn’t agree with it so it was a fluke not what you should have done lol.

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4 minutes ago, RogerVick1980 said:

The thing I realized this year is the ego these YouTube/ twitter draft scouts have.

They get snarky and angry if someone dares  to disagree with them on a player.

It’s weird.

Pandemic effect. 

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1. JD loves picks, you cant tell me that he didnt have a great reason to move up

2. its now been reported that NE was hot after AVT at 15 which is why JD traded up

3. as i said only other elite prospect was Darrisaw and he is a T only

4. who is to say that both AVT and Darrisaw would not be gone by 23?

5. both things can be true, we gave away valuable picks AND we got the player that we thought we needed to have 

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Becton is our Brick. AVT is our Faneca. Wilson is our Sanchez. Saleh is our Rexy. We just need our 2021 Mangold, Woody and Revis to make a push. 

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Just now, undertow said:

I never thought id see the day a group of people were so passionate about giving up a 3rd round pick in order to get a top 10 player......the group think is cult like.

 

2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

One of the guys the were going to pick in the 3rd round they got in the 4th round.

As with all things the value will be dependant on how the player turns out.  If he is a good long term starter it was a good move, of he is a pro bowler it was a fantastic move.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/04/14/new-york-jets-pass-rush-has-unstoppable-potential/

 

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16 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

1. JD loves picks, you cant tell me that he didnt have a great reason to move up He misjudged what was happening, the run on OL didn't happen when he thought it would.

2. its now been reported that NE was hot after AVT at 15 which is why JD traded up We have no idea if this thin reporting is true

3. as i said only other elite prospect was Darrisaw and he is a T only Why do you think Darrisaw can't kick inside?

4. who is to say that both AVT and Darrisaw would not be gone by 23? Take Jenkins

5. both things can be true, we gave away valuable picks AND we got the player that we thought we needed to have This we agree with, I like Vera-Tucker... I also like who we could had taken at 23, 66, and 86.  Could have added 3 pieces to the OL not 1. or 2 OL and 1 defensive prospect or tight end.

Responses in red.

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I can’t stand the analytics/value guys. I like having the numbers available, but the folks putting it out there are a problem. It’s a thing I’ve always noticed about this type of person. Information over experience. Information is great. We need it, but your numbers mean nothing without the experience and human element. 

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13 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

One of the guys the were going to pick in the 3rd round they got in the 4th round.

As with all things the value will be dependant on how the player turns out.  If he is a good long term starter it was a good move, of he is a pro bowler it was a fantastic move.

No doubt AVT would have been gone by 23. That was JD’s target. Period. And it was great value point chart wise. All the mocks had the top Tackles and Guards gone by 23.  No brainer. 

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56 minutes ago, RogerVick1980 said:

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah.

While I get the fact that as a whole since the draft is a crapshoot it’s better to have more picks then less and you should probably trade down more then up in general but there is so much nuance in football with scheme fit and other things to say don’t ever trade up is foolish.

The Jets feel Tucker is the athletic guard they need in Lafleurs system. They probably felt the guards they could take later on wouldn’t be nearly as athletic as him to run their scheme.

They also don’t want a repeat of the Darnold situation and want to protect their QB as much as possible so I get why they did it.

Like I I said I’m not anti analytics more info is good but I feel they take the human element out of it and deal strictly with value and numbers and it doesn’t work that way.

I remember PFF had a former GM on and they were telling him why don’t gm’s trade down basically all the time and the GM said you need a partner. Not every pick  is someone looking to move up into your spot.

I think you need a balance of numbers and nuance and human feel.

The analytics only deals with numbers and value.

 

 

 

I forget where I heard it but the Jets were rumored to have been looking to move up as high as 10th with Dallas, presumably for an OLineman.  I don't know if that would have been Slater or Vera-Tucker (and maybe we'll never know), but it does jive with JD reportedly having Vera-Tucker in his Top 10.

No idea how much more that would have cost to get to #10 instead of #14 but I'd have to assume the #34 may have been on the table at that point, which would have been very, very tough to stomach.

My opinion is that you take what the Draft gives you.  This year it was handing out offensive players hand over fist.  JD seemed to stick to his board.  I'd rather see the Jets use an extra pick or two to get a guy they want at a spot he deserves to be taken, rather than to reach for a player.  Imagine if the Jets didn't trade up, took a WR or someone at 23 (it could have been Elijah Moore there if the Jets truly had him in their Top 25), and then reached at #34 for a Tier 2 OLineman.  I wouldn't have been happy about that.  By all accounts and projections, the Jets may have solved the entire left side of their OLine for the next decade.  I can't complain about that.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

Responses in red.

your answers make total sense...if you were the GM. when you say things like "take jenkins" you lose me. they may have had him as a third round pick for all we know. we already know they had the OL as Slater, AVT, Sewell...which is not in line with most mocks.

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25 minutes ago, RogerVick1980 said:


Dont know where they come up with this garbage 

It doesn't make sense, don't bother making sense of it. And what the hell is the difference between saying "the best guard in the draft" vs "the best guard prospect in the draft"? Isn't that saying the exact same thing?

We get all of these kids are prospects since they haven't played a single down in the NFL and we don't know how they'll pan out. That's implied when people say "best guard in the draft". 

For nerds, these guys are morons.

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40 minutes ago, Jet2020 said:

Becton is our Brick. AVT is our Faneca. Wilson is our Sanchez. Saleh is our Rexy. We just need our 2021 Mangold, Woody and Revis to make a push. 

If Becton is only D'brick, I'll be pretty disappointed.  

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This is where data can be misused and the dogma around its misuse can be dangerous. 

The reality is that while there is a finite market for G salaries, you just don't see movement of pro bowl caliber (prospect or no) Gs in the free agency market. Further, in the short term, its been near impossible for us to attract them to NY when they do hit the market. With the immediate need to protect Wilson in 2021-22 and the absence of a viable alternative once KC attracted all the top OL FA - this is a perfectly sensible move - and I think thats why the punditry have defended it. 

Kendrick Green would also have been a good fit theoretically - i picked him in a bunch of PFF simulated drafts, but I am not an NFL talent evaluator and if the Jets had a dramatically higher grade on AVT than Green, its irrelevant. (Though I might have considered trading back into the 3rd to get Green for the RG position).  The Jets apparently had a top 10 grade on AVT and FF said they had him #7 on their board - what's the value of moving from 23 to 7, because to JD that's the value he saw (aside from the experience of the past two seasons looking at threadbare FA market for guards and his own experiencing drafting guys later for OL like Clark and knowing he needed a day 1 starter). 

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I don't really care how the trade grades out.  I care about whether the player taken at 14 will be a good player.  If AVT is an above average starter on our OL for the next decade, the quality of the pick at 14 is more important than the lost value in the trade.  If he is a bust, the trade up was bad regardless of the value.

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  • slats changed the title to Trade up and pick of AVT being scrutinized (merged)

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