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Trade up and pick of AVT being scrutinized (merged)


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18 hours ago, Jet2020 said:

Analytics prefer extra picks. Quantity over quality. Gives you better chances at finding a steal in the later rounds. But at the top of the draft, it should always be about quality. 

Any other draft year they'd have a point.  I know its been mentioned in this thread and elsewhere but in my biased opinion its worth re-stating at least one more time:  This year was all about the top 60 (ish) guys.  With a global pandemic, anyone outside of that range was going to be difficult/nearly impossible to scout properly.  Trading up was 100 % the right move and anyone who says otherwise is a 6-9 baseball failure.

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I agree.  I am so pissed we traded up for Revis when we could of got 2-3 mediocre to bad players

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah. While I get the fact that as a whole since the draft is a crap

At the end of the day the PFF analysts are a 6'9 foot failed baseball player, an Irishman who got the job because he was a good poster on an NFL forum, a lad who was the first person kicked off the ba

16 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

It has everything to do with the team moving up. That's the point. Was the trade worth it is a pretty standard and perfectly reasonable question to ask.

I don't think so, though. I think they're separate judgments/questions? 

  • One is: Is it worth it to trade up? In this case to get one premium prospect vs. one good (but less premium) prospect plus a couple more picks that historically have a 2-in-3 shot of not becoming even 3-year starters, with the further caveat that many of those 3+ year starters include the likes of Jordan Jenkins and Pat Elflein?
  • Two is: Is this player worth such a high draft pick outright? i.e. is a guard worthy of such a high pick whether you traded up or not?

If the Jets were sitting at #14 naturally, and took a guard there, then (by bypassing the opportunity to trade down as Minnesota did) we'd still have been selecting AVT - a guard - over whatever prospect we could've gotten at #23 plus the other pair of day-2 picks.

IMO it's incidental that the Jets traded up to #14 vs. whether they were at #14 in the first place and declined to trade down. Either way the result is the same: they chose [a guard at 14 + pick 143] over [picks 23 + 66 + 86]. 

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18 hours ago, Morrissey said:

I agree with their view.

Not everyone is going to agree with yours.

Its an objectively silly take.  Scouting was near impossible this year outside of the top prospects.  What PFF does doesn't qualify as "scouting".

Your takes are awful, as usual.  Of course you side with those PFF nerds who don't even use numbers in a useful way.  PFF is what happens when a bunch of Bar Stool Sports toolbags read a TI-83 user manual.  

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38 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I would love to see a link on this.  Not being snarky, as I believe you 100 %.  I just badly want to read many, many words about this rag-tag group of useless misfits.  

They openly admit who they are on the podcasts the whole time and how they ended up in PFF. None of them have any back round in the NFL, they just got jobs as PFF analytics and worked their way up.

Sam Monsoon, he's from Dublin ireland and posted a lot on an NFLUK forum and became friendly with the guy who decided to set up PFF and Sam  was asked to join the team at PFF from the start up and then moved to America.

Steve Pazzolo, he's an ex minor league baseball player who was big into stats and joined PFF and worked his way up to been a presenter.

Mike Reynor, he was on an early season of the bachelorette and was voted off first that season I think. He went to Notre Dame and got a job at PFF as an computer analyst and again worked his way up.

Austin Gale, he worked hard to get where he is and is very high up in PFF. He came from a shady background and is very open about it like living in his car, his father's drunken exploits and his mother's criminal past.

They all are an interesting listen on their podcasts but they are just fans of the game like me or you but get paid to study the data and make assumptions based on that. Their opinions are not to be taken as gospel because they have never worked in the front office of an NFL team so it's easy for them to criticize what they have never done themselves.

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Any other draft year they'd have a point.  I know its been mentioned in this thread and elsewhere but in my biased opinion its worth re-stating at least one more time:  This year was all about the top 60 (ish) guys.  With a global pandemic, anyone outside of that range was going to be difficult/nearly impossible to scout properly.  Trading up was 100 % the right move and anyone who says otherwise is a 6-9 baseball failure.

I don't even know if they do have such a point, or anyway not the double-point they're making. Either you believe a guard can be worth the #14 pick or you don't; and if you don't, then any team that takes a guard in the top 15 is 100% always foolish not to trade down instead. 

TBH I do somewhat feel that way about guards, but only inside the top 10 (that extra 6-8 picks above #14 isn't nothing).

As great as he is, unless he was the last piece of my SB team, admittedly there's no way I'd have drafted Q.Nelson at #6 who (as much as this term is overly thrown around) truly is a lock first ballot HOFer so far. In hindsight would he have been a better selection than trading up for Darnold? Quite obviously yes. But taking Allen (and keeping our three 2nd rounders) would've been better still. Nelson's great, but even if he's one of the top 3 guards in NFL history he's still not worth anywhere near the $40MM+/year contract extension Buffalo's about to give Allen.

So while I'd have missed out on drafting Nelson, I'd also have missed out on Jonathan Cooper. Also I never would have taken a safety at #6 instead of a QB the year before Nelson, no matter how highly rated Adams was. Everything said about Pitts would make him the only TE I'd have considered in the top 6, too, but I'm going off others' assessments about him and it'd depend on how bad the rest of the team is (am I picking at #5 because my QB and a handful of other key starters got injured, or was the roster as depleted as the Jets?).

These just aren't positions that are crazy-hard and crazy-expensive to more than adequately fill in FA or well after the top 5-6 picks (if not after round 1 outright). There are always exceptions to the rule, but the problem is every year people think such an exception has presented itself, and then you end up drafting Jonathan Cooper at #7, Barkley (or Trent Richardson or Fournette) at picks #2-4, and being told we should've drafted OJ Howard at #6 in 2017 because he was also supposedly a mold-breaker.

So... comfortably inside the top 10 (if not the top 5), ask yourself if it's still a pick you can live with if the player is ultimately just ok or even pretty good for years. If it's a QB or a LT? Absolutely. EDGE or WR or CB? Probably still yes. If it's a S or TE or G? Absolutely not.

I think that's where these PFF guys are correct (but I don't know whether they put it in just those terms or not): does this player need to be a star to prevent regretting the pick in a big way? At #14 I think they'll be disappointed if AVT is only pretty-good, especially if he's also struggling more than expected as a rookie, but given how G contracts have risen for merely solid (but not great) starters, they can probably live with it even if they'd clearly do things differently if given a second chance. However, AVT or any guard being the same outcome (not even a bust, but merely ok or pretty-good) it's a facepalm selection if they used a pick near the top 5 overall to get him; never mind if there were opportunities to trade down & add another 1st rounder and more, and still pick inside the top 15. 

I don't think there's some rigid rule about pick value that must always be followed. Draft classes are different; needs are different among different teams, or from the same team in different years; plus they follow FA periods which are also never the same from year to year. e.g. we'll never know for sure, but if the Jets had signed Thuney, it's doubtful they'd have still traded up for AVT. 

It should be obvious without saying it adhered to or broke some underlying "rule" but this will work out or not work out because of how good these players are and more importantly, independent of this trade, how good Wilson is.

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Any other draft year they'd have a point.  I know its been mentioned in this thread and elsewhere but in my biased opinion its worth re-stating at least one more time:  This year was all about the top 60 (ish) guys.  With a global pandemic, anyone outside of that range was going to be difficult/nearly impossible to scout properly.  Trading up was 100 % the right move and anyone who says otherwise is a 6-9 baseball failure.

this.  the jets didn't want a few OL prospects who could become good, they wanted 1 OG prospect who had the best chance of becoming an instant starter and had the best chance of becoming a star.  there was a lot of tape on AVT on 2 positions and he was on basically everyone's draft ranking as a top 15 guy if not a top 10 guy.  value is a relative term that fluctuates from draft to draft.

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We overpaid (when weighing positional value with the trade-up cost) to immediately improve the protection for our rookie quarterback.

I think that's a fair assessment. I think there are reasonable critiques and defenses of that move.

Think about it this way: If we had signed Thuney, we were willing to overpay a guard to protect our quarterback. 

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Just now, RedBeardedSavage said:

We overpaid (when weighing positional value with the trade-up cost) to immediately improve the protection for our rookie quarterback.

I think that's a fair assessment. I think there are reasonable critiques and defenses of that move.

Think about it this way: If we had signed Thuney, we were willing to overpay a guard to protect our quarterback. 

but if the jets did that, most everyone would be praising it.  the PFF model does not factor in cap hit.  it's purely based on draft capital.  if AVT becomes good right away, clearly he's a better value than Thuney, so you can infer the uncertainty of AVT becoming good factors into the value proposition.

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

but if the jets did that, most everyone would be praising it.  the PFF model does not factor in cap hit.  it's purely based on draft capital.  if AVT becomes good right away, clearly he's a better value than Thuney, so you can infer the uncertainty of AVT becoming good factors into the value proposition.

But we had to give up two third rounders for AVT and we wouldn't have had to give up any picks for Thuney. 

And of course, a proven commodity is more valuable than a projected return. 

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JN Before the Draft:  We must pick value players, at only premium positions like Edge and CB in the first round!  We can get Guards and RB's in the 5th!  Follow the chart, value is everything!  If it's not here, trade DOWN!

JN After the Draft:  Why are PFN attacking the trade up, we got an elite Guard to protect Wilson! So what if the chart says we gave up too much!  Don't they get it?

:-k

Lol. 🤣

Maybe stop caring about sports media "draft grades" a week after the Draft in question, and care more about how our new players will fir here and help us win?

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17 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

We overpaid (when weighing positional value with the trade-up cost) to immediately improve the protection for our rookie quarterback.

I think that's a fair assessment. I think there are reasonable critiques and defenses of that move.

Think about it this way: If we had signed Thuney, we were willing to overpay a guard to protect our quarterback. 

I think there's a shift taking place on the value of guards. Thuney is just the beginning, IMO.

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30 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't even know if they do have such a point, or anyway not the double-point they're making. Either you believe a guard can be worth the #14 pick or you don't; and if you don't, then any team that takes a guard in the top 15 is 100% always foolish not to trade down instead. 

TBH I do somewhat feel that way about guards, but only inside the top 10 (that extra 6-8 picks above #14 isn't nothing).

As great as he is, unless he was the last piece of my SB team, admittedly there's no way I'd have drafted Q.Nelson at #6 who (as much as this term is overly thrown around) truly is a lock first ballot HOFer so far. In hindsight would he have been a better selection than trading up for Darnold? Quite obviously yes. But taking Allen (and keeping our three 2nd rounders) would've been better still. Nelson's great, but even if he's one of the top 3 guards in NFL history he's still not worth anywhere near the $40MM+/year contract extension Buffalo's about to give Allen.

So while I'd have missed out on drafting Nelson, I'd also have missed out on Jonathan Cooper. Also I never would have taken a safety at #6 instead of a QB the year before Nelson, no matter how highly rated Adams was. Everything said about Pitts would make him the only TE I'd have considered in the top 6, too, but I'm going off others' assessments about him and it'd depend on how bad the rest of the team is (am I picking at #5 because my QB and a handful of other key starters got injured, or was the roster as depleted as the Jets?).

These just aren't positions that are crazy-hard and crazy-expensive to more than adequately fill in FA or well after the top 5-6 picks (if not after round 1 outright). There are always exceptions to the rule, but the problem is every year people think such an exception has presented itself, and then you end up drafting Jonathan Cooper at #7, Barkley (or Trent Richardson or Fournette) at picks #2-4, and being told we should've drafted OJ Howard at #6 in 2017 because he was also supposedly a mold-breaker.

So... comfortably inside the top 10 (if not the top 5), ask yourself if it's still a pick you can live with if the player is ultimately just ok or even pretty good for years. If it's a QB or a LT? Absolutely. EDGE or WR or CB? Probably still yes. If it's a S or TE or G? Absolutely not.

I think that's where these PFF guys are correct (but I don't know whether they put it in just those terms or not): does this player need to be a star to prevent regretting the pick in a big way? At #14 I think they'll be disappointed if AVT is only pretty-good, especially if he's also struggling more than expected as a rookie, but given how G contracts have risen for merely solid (but not great) starters, they can probably live with it even if they'd clearly do things differently if given a second chance. However, AVT or any guard being the same outcome (not even a bust, but merely ok or pretty-good) it's a facepalm selection if they used a pick near the top 5 overall to get him; never mind if there were opportunities to trade down & add another 1st rounder and more, and still pick inside the top 15. 

I don't think there's some rigid rule about pick value that must always be followed. Draft classes are different; needs are different among different teams, or from the same team in different years; plus they follow FA periods which are also never the same from year to year. e.g. we'll never know for sure, but if the Jets had signed Thuney, it's doubtful they'd have still traded up for AVT. 

It should be obvious without saying it adhered to or broke some underlying "rule" but this will work out or not work out because of how good these players are and more importantly, independent of this trade, how good Wilson is.

tl;dr you make fine points sir 

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46 minutes ago, adobolo2 said:

They openly admit who they are on the podcasts the whole time and how they ended up in PFF. None of them have any back round in the NFL, they just got jobs as PFF analytics and worked their way up.

Sam Monsoon, he's from Dublin ireland and posted a lot on an NFLUK forum and became friendly with the guy who decided to set up PFF and Sam  was asked to join the team at PFF from the start up and then moved to America.

Steve Pazzolo, he's an ex minor league baseball player who was big into stats and joined PFF and worked his way up to been a presenter.

Mike Reynor, he was on an early season of the bachelorette and was voted off first that season I think. He went to Notre Dame and got a job at PFF as an computer analyst and again worked his way up.

Austin Gale, he worked hard to get where he is and is very high up in PFF. He came from a shady background and is very open about it like living in his car, his father's drunken exploits and his mother's criminal past.

They all are an interesting listen on their podcasts but they are just fans of the game like me or you but get paid to study the data and make assumptions based on that. Their opinions are not to be taken as gospel because they have never worked in the front office of an NFL team so it's easy for them to criticize what they have never done themselves.

This is awesome news.  I will 100 % check it out.  Thank you!!

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5 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

I think there's a shift taking place on the value of guards. Thuney is just the beginning, IMO.

Maybe, or maybe the Chiefs and the Jets were both just desperate to improve their offensive lines, willing to pay a premium.

What reassures me is the two firsts, two seconds and cap space we'll have next year. Even if this move was expensive, we can afford it. 

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21 hours ago, RogerVick1980 said:

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah.

While I get the fact that as a whole since the draft is a crapshoot it’s better to have more picks then less and you should probably trade down more then up in general but there is so much nuance in football with scheme fit and other things to say don’t ever trade up is foolish.

The Jets feel Tucker is the athletic guard they need in Lafleurs system. They probably felt the guards they could take later on wouldn’t be nearly as athletic as him to run their scheme.

They also don’t want a repeat of the Darnold situation and want to protect their QB as much as possible so I get why they did it.

Like I I said I’m not anti analytics more info is good but I feel they take the human element out of it and deal strictly with value and numbers and it doesn’t work that way.

I remember PFF had a former GM on and they were telling him why don’t gm’s trade down basically all the time and the GM said you need a partner. Not every pick  is someone looking to move up into your spot.

I think you need a balance of numbers and nuance and human feel.

The analytics only deals with numbers and value.

 

 

What kills me is that I know (technically) as much about football scouting and the draft as some random nobody with a stained T-shirt and a plumber's crack yet even I knew Sam Darnold was doomed if the Jets were gonna Jet. They Jetted.

Me and almost every Jets fan I know echoed the same sentiment the day The Boot was drafted: if he's not protected, his growth will be stunted and the Jets will ruin him and then completely blame the suckitude on him. That, and the Knuckledhead Bros. needed to stay out of football operations on any and every level. All of it happened on the first part and none of it happened on the second part.

It's not a matter of being right or chest-thumping over a pile of ashes, but in all honesty, is anyone actually SURPRISED how it all played out? The writing was on the wall even before Gase was hired, especially given the fact that even with Sam Darnold and a HC pool that was less viable than a dead body it was still tough getting someone to come here. It's a glaring indictment of the meddling football ineptitude of the Johnsons. It was considered career suicide and a radioactive treadmill with a cesspool instead of a sauna.

The main reason to be excited is not Zach Wilson. It's the quiet way Joe Douglas threw his weight around - pun intended  - behind closed doors and definitively got the Johnsons to butt the hell out and let him do his job. That's one of the biggest reasons I'm fully behind this guy now. No-one else before has been able to do it. GO JETS!!!

 

 

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20 hours ago, undertow said:

Every GM has their own board and I know this may sound crazy but it's not always the same as a bunch of reporters and Youtube scouts.  Douglas obviously valued AVT much higher then what he could have got at 23 so he moved up.  Similarly and contrary to popular belief he probably didn't value Mims that much and had a bunch of players grouped together so he moved down last year.  What this years draft proved to me is he's not married to one draft ideology and is flexible....thankfully.

Thank you so much for this sane post!

Players are human beings and often have undisclosed issues that go into a team's evaluation of whether you pick a player or not, which goes far beyond what just transpires on the field.

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15 minutes ago, jetophile said:

What kills me is that I know (technically) as much about football scouting and the draft as some random nobody with a stained T-shirt and a plumber's crack yet even I knew Sam Darnold was doomed if the Jets were gonna Jet. They Jetted.

Me and almost every Jets fan I know echoed the same sentiment the day The Boot was drafted: if he's not protected, his growth will be stunted and the Jets will ruin him and then completely blame the suckitude on him. That, and the Knuckledhead Bros. needed to stay out of football operations on any and every level. All of it happened on the first part and none of it happened on the second part.

It's not a matter of being right or chest-thumping over a pile of ashes, but in all honesty, is anyone actually SURPRISED how it all played out? The writing was on the wall even before Gase was hired, especially given the fact that even with Sam Darnold and a HC pool that was less viable than a dead body it was still tough getting someone to come here. It's a glaring indictment of the meddling football ineptitude of the Johnsons. It was considered career suicide and a radioactive treadmill with a cesspool instead of a sauna.

The main reason to be excited is not Zach Wilson. It's the quiet way Joe Douglas threw his weight around - pun intended  - behind closed doors and definitively got the Johnsons to butt the hell out and let him do his job. That's one of the biggest reasons I'm fully behind this guy now. No-one else before has been able to do it. GO JETS!!!

 

 

Thank you too!

People act like there weren't TONS of posters out here who were saying that the Jets were going to RUIN Darnold based upon how the franchise was/is being run!  

I too am optimistic for the very reasons you clearly state!!!!

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4 minutes ago, Lith said:

But most of these analysts seem to ignore the 4th we got back from the Vikings.  We traded back twice from 143 and came away with 3 players.  So in return for the three picks above, plus a 7th we gave up in one of the trade backs, we came away with:

  • 14 Alijah Vera-Tucker
  • 175 Jason Pinnock
  • 200 Brandon Echols
  • 207 Jonathan Marshall

It was not a great trade by the value chart, but if AVT is an above average starter and one of these three guys proves to be a solid player, it worked out for us.  Quality of the draft picks is more important than value gained/lost in the trade,

 

Two more variables as well:

In the 3rd round, I think it was Wyatt Davis and Ben Cleveland that went (maybe one more IOL). Are those guys worth it to lose AVT over?

And second thing, Joe Douglas said he was going to take Michael Carter in the 3rd round.  We got him anyway. That narrows it down to one IOL in the 3rd round. Are either of those guys worth losing AVT over? I say no, but if you guys are high on them then I guess.

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Even Jason is hating on it?  Et tu, brute?

He ran numbers, and basically said "to match the expected excess contract value the Jets gave up at 23, 66, and 86, AVT will need to play like a 14M/year OG" - i.e. he needs to be elite

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2 hours ago, bitonti said:

Sperm if I told you last year that the Jets would lose 14 games and draft a guard top 20 you'd crap a brick 

 

LOL

Probably in the abstract, but it depends on what else you said.

e.g.

  • did they trade down from #2 and then #14 was their first pick?
  • when trading up, how many other picks did they have (this year and next year)?

If he traded up even further, into the top 10, and took a guard at #8 or something, I'd crap enough bricks to build a safe house for 3 little pigs.

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1 hour ago, Charlie Brown said:

Thank you too!

People act like there weren't TONS of posters out here who were saying that the Jets were going to RUIN Darnold based upon how the franchise was/is being run!  

I too am optimistic for the very reasons you clearly state!!!!

I'm a fan of the laundry first and foremost ALWAYS, but seeing as Sam Darnold went to an NFC team, I really hope he blows it up in in Carolina (unless it affects the Jets). He's not the only one who got tooled. The entire fan base got tooled. You, me, everyone.

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8 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

He ran numbers, and basically said "to match the expected excess contract value the Jets gave up at 23, 66, and 86, AVT will need to play like a 14M/year OG" - i.e. he needs to be elite

JD be like:  "Challenge accepted."

I like the confidence.  JD is an OL guy.  Move up for ones you like.  Why not?  

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10 hours ago, football guy said:

These are the same people who are parading the Bears giving up a future 1st round pick to move up 9 spots for Justin Fields. 

I'm not too concerned lol

I don't get it... that was a great move.

Bears desperately need a QB and giving up 1 future 1st is a small price for one.

Maybe you think Fields is garbage, but I don't feel that way...

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20 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

I don't get it... that was a great move.

Bears desperately need a QB and giving up 1 future 1st is a small price for one.

Maybe you think Fields is garbage, but I don't feel that way...

Isn't that the point? This is all subjective and what matters is the team board. Douglas apparently had AVT ranked pretty close to Fields (if AVT was 7 on Jets board as claimed here) and there for two 3s were reasonable to him. Same way you liked Fields so a future 1 is fine for you.

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6 minutes ago, ryu79 said:

Isn't that the point? This is all subjective and what matters is the team board. Douglas apparently had AVT ranked pretty close to Fields (if AVT was 7 on Jets board as claimed here) and there for two 3s were reasonable to him. Same way you liked Fields so a future 1 is fine for you.

I'm sorry you can't compare the value of a guard to the value of QB.

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11 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

I'm sorry you can't compare the value of a guard to the value of QB.

Any QB? Again - subjective. 

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15 minutes ago, ryu79 said:

Any QB? Again - subjective. 

Prettty much.. if there starters. 

Best guards in the NFL are being paid between $13 and $18 million a year. Mahomes is making $45 million a year. Darnold will make $18 million if his 5th year option is picked up. Derek Carr is making $25 million a year. Guys like Fitzpatrick and Dalton who won’t be in the league much longer are making little less than the best guards in football at $10 million.

 

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There is value added to oline when:

You have had a bad oline for a long time

You have a new young QB.

A smart team starts to build the oline a year or more before drafting a young franchise QB

A sane team builds the oilne at the same time as they draft a new Qb

An idiotic team falls for the shiny toys and neglects the oline.

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17 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

Prettty much.. if there starters. 

Best guards in the NFL are being paid between $13 and $18 million a year. Mahomes is making $45 million a year. Darnold will make $18 million if his 5th year option is picked up. Derek Carr is making $25 million a year. Guys like Fitzpatrick and Dalton who won’t be in the league much longer are making little less than the best guards in football at $10 million.

 

Interestingly, is easier to get those guys though. Often more difficult to get a pro-bowl caliber guard and we desperately needed one. But that's immaterial.

It comes down to what JD saw in AVT.  Whether it's a QB or a G - if JD had AVT at 7 on his board the trade makes perfect sense. And he's the one that has to be accountable for it.

Same for the Bears brass (who somehow weren't held accountable for Trubitsky) if they believe Fields is a star NFL QB in making (I like the kid) then their deal makes sense. Plenty of folks here have opined that was an awful deal - but they don't have to live with it.

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