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Trade up and pick of AVT being scrutinized (merged)


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The Jets entered the draft with a huge hole on the OL that they found themselves unable to fill in free agency, and Joe Douglas was determined not only to fill that hole, but to fill it with one of the top prospects on his board. The result was something of an overpay for an interior lineman. But that's what happens when you're either drafting for need or you fall in love with a specific player, and in this case it was both. In hindsight, if he had stayed put he could've drafted Elijah Moore, Tevin Jenkins, and kept the two third rounders (maybe drafting another guard prospect) and when you look at it like that, well, the value isn't great. 

But, bottom line, he filled that hole. If he's right on AVT, one side of the line is set for the next four or five years, and we really won't hear much more about that trade up to get him until it's time to re-up his contract. If he was wrong, we'll hear about it a lot. 

I don't think JD wanted to be in the position he was in, having to draft for need like that, and as the roster gets better hopefully he won't find himself in that position again anytime soon. 

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I agree.  I am so pissed we traded up for Revis when we could of got 2-3 mediocre to bad players

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah. While I get the fact that as a whole since the draft is a crap

At the end of the day the PFF analysts are a 6'9 foot failed baseball player, an Irishman who got the job because he was a good poster on an NFL forum, a lad who was the first person kicked off the ba

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah.
While I get the fact that as a whole since the draft is a crapshoot it’s better to have more picks then less and you should probably trade down more then up in general but there is so much nuance in football with scheme fit and other things to say don’t ever trade up is foolish.
The Jets feel Tucker is the athletic guard they need in Lafleurs system. They probably felt the guards they could take later on wouldn’t be nearly as athletic as him to run their scheme.
They also don’t want a repeat of the Darnold situation and want to protect their QB as much as possible so I get why they did it.
Like I I said I’m not anti analytics more info is good but I feel they take the human element out of it and deal strictly with value and numbers and it doesn’t work that way.
I remember PFF had a former GM on and they were telling him why don’t gm’s trade down basically all the time and the GM said you need a partner. Not every pick  is someone looking to move up into your spot.
I think you need a balance of numbers and nuance and human feel.
The analytics only deals with numbers and value.
 
 

Excellent take. We have become so polarized in every facet, that we refuse to see the good in things that we don’t necessarily support or understand. The PFF group pushes their side because it’s their bread and butter, but I believe they would be better served embracing the good in the football intuition that goes into certain decisions, rather than dismiss it because it doesn’t conform to their belief. It takes both careful data analysis and background knowledge to make a well informed decision, not one or the other.


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Draft value and $2.75 gets you on an NYC bus. Drafting quality players wins games, divisions, and championships. The only time draft value charts matter is when you give up the farm for a failed player. Nobody will remember or care about draft value if AVT becomes the player he was drafted to be. Value is fluid and changes over time. I don't have the the value for the trade the Chiefs made to trade up for Pat Mahomes, but I guarantee you that nobody cares if the Chiefs got "hosed" on the draft value chart at the time. (Yes, I am aware that AVT is not a QB)

I'd prefer if JD wins out on draft trade value, but I'm also ok with losing out on draft trade value if he hits on the picks. My guess is that the AVT trade up was the exception, and not the rule. 

 

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If it works it was right. If it fails,  it was wrong. The biggest factor,  far more important than draft savvy or wisdom is luck.

Sorry, but that's the truth. Just like the birth lottery. 

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The pick is a success if tucker starts and is successful fight out of the box. The odds of getting such a player in the third round is slim so the move makes good sense.  Let’s hope he’s not another Cadigan

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It’s a moot point. It’s a player they had valued as a top 10 player in the draft at a major need falling to 14. Worked out great for the Vikings because they got their guy at 23 plus Davis/Mond but none of that actually matters if AVT is a pro bowl level guard next to Becton for ten years. 

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8 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

This guy is still on about it. 

 

 

It's a fair criticism. In the end, we don't know if JD simply didn't like Teven Jenkins or the other OL that would possibly fall to him at 23. 

It was also a very weak/speculative draft class (thanks to Covid) in general so the talent in the 3rd round wasn't exactly jumping off the page for any teams. 

PFF had Carter ranked 89th (a 3rd round talent) we got in the 4th round. 

PFF had Sherwood ranked 67th (a 3rd round talent) we got in the 5th round. 

So it's not like the trade prevented us from getting 3rd round talent later in the draft. 

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21 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

This guy is still on about it. 

 

 

Clearly the actual Jets would rather AVT over Jenkins and Christensen. Quantity over quality doesn't always pay off. 

And if Darrisaw and AVT didn't slide to 23? Then what? They settle? 

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You cannot use our current knowledge of the situation to evaluate the change.  At the time of the trade there was not a reasonable expectation that any of AVT Jenkins or Darrishaw would have been there at 23. If the Jets knew that maybe they stay put. But being that the OL is as important as it is, the trade was 100% the right thing to do. I am sure JD wanted another OL but the way the draft fell Moore and Carter were just too good to pass on. I suspect we draft another first round OL next year.

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I get the whole Jenkins/Darrishaw thing, but I don't think that is relevant.  The Jets supposedly loved Vera-Tucker.  We don't know if they are right.  There are reasons to dislike Jenkins in particular.  I remember in 2006 plenty of discussions about D'Brick vs. others.  Some of us were thinking about say Ngata and Marcus Mcneil.  Cutler/McNeil would certainly have seemed better than D'Brick/Clemens.  McNeil had back concerns and more importantly WInston Justice went ahead of McNiel.  There may be good reasons certain teams don't like these guys, even the good ones.  Some of these guys are trouble.  Sometimes they hit like Sapp or Marino.  More often they are dogs like Dorial Green-Beckham.  This is the kind of deal where I give the GM the benefit of the doubt for now.  We will see how things go.

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I get that you can condemn the move based on value, and that's fine - even value is an opinion, everybody's chart is different. What bothers me about these critiques is that more often than not, the author has the attitude that "this was a mistake, no doubt about it" - for example, this Walder guy saying it "looks like a clear error". First of all, as stated above, nobody knew who would be available at 23 when the Jets made the move. Second - if you want to know 100% for sure if the move was a mistake or not, even in hindsight, you have to see what the players they 'could have' gotten without making a move end up being. Of course even then JD didn't have the benefit of having that info, but at least you could say 'in hindsight, it was a mistake' or 'it was a good move.

So if it was me writing the above post, I'd acknowledge that it's just my opinion, that I don't know what info the Jets had or what their opinions are of the players I recommended they draft at their original pick, or whether those players would have been available had they not made the trade.
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5 minutes ago, isired said:

I get that you can condemn the move based on value, and that's fine - even value is an opinion, everybody's chart is different.

 

Agreed.  In a vacuum, value made this a bad deal.  But the value of the supposed 2 OL Douglas passed on is in question because of the COVID scouting difficulties.  In my view, Vera-Tucker presented far more value than the 2 OL combined because of a more confident scouting profile of Vera-Tucker vs the 2 prospects.

In hindsight, knowing who would have fallen to him, I think Douglas would have made this trade regardless.  Maybe that's confirmation bias talking (for both my part AND hypothetically on his part too), but I think he was THAT confident in Vera-Tucker and he simultaneously lacked confidence in the prospects outside of the top 50/60.  Making the move up 100 % the right decision.

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1 hour ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Clearly the actual Jets would rather AVT over Jenkins and Christensen. Quantity over quality doesn't always pay off. 

And if Darrisaw and AVT didn't slide to 23? Then what? They settle? 

Exactly. Clearly, Walder's logic is don't get wrapped up in who's who...just draft A tackle(s) when it's your turn. But what if Saleh, LaFleur, and JD evaluated the situation and determined AVT to be a better scheme fit than Darrisaw (or a better LG fit at minimum)? All this analysis is well taken, and I understand what's being said here...but sometimes you draft a guy rather than a position. There has to be room in the analysis for drafting a guy that you view as an ideal fit for what you want to do. 

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1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

You cannot use our current knowledge of the situation to evaluate the change.  At the time of the trade there was not a reasonable expectation that any of AVT Jenkins or Darrishaw would have been there at 23. If the Jets knew that maybe they stay put. But being that the OL is as important as it is, the trade was 100% the right thing to do. I am sure JD wanted another OL but the way the draft fell Moore and Carter were just too good to pass on. I suspect we draft another first round OL next year.

I get the trade, but I definitely didn’t love it. It was pretty far from “100% the right thing to do.” Hopefully he’s the guy they believe he is. 

I’m not all that interested in talking about next year’s draft just yet (save that for the nerd forum) but I will unequivocally say that I will be passed off if he spends a first round pick on the OL three ****ing years in a row. If he’s supposed to be some kind of OL guru, he needs to be able to find them later on in the draft like every other successful football team does. 

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On 5/6/2021 at 1:30 PM, RogerVick1980 said:

All you hear from them is about getting “value” for picks and how you should never trade up unless it’s for a QB and blah blah blah.

While I get the fact that as a whole since the draft is a crapshoot it’s better to have more picks then less and you should probably trade down more then up in general but there is so much nuance in football with scheme fit and other things to say don’t ever trade up is foolish.

The Jets feel Tucker is the athletic guard they need in Lafleurs system. They probably felt the guards they could take later on wouldn’t be nearly as athletic as him to run their scheme.

They also don’t want a repeat of the Darnold situation and want to protect their QB as much as possible so I get why they did it.

Like I I said I’m not anti analytics more info is good but I feel they take the human element out of it and deal strictly with value and numbers and it doesn’t work that way.

I remember PFF had a former GM on and they were telling him why don’t gm’s trade down basically all the time and the GM said you need a partner. Not every pick  is someone looking to move up into your spot.

I think you need a balance of numbers and nuance and human feel.

The analytics only deals with numbers and value.

 

 

Vera Tucker is not only s damn good guard but he's a versatile player as well that fits exactly what JD has been preaching all along. He wants players that can do multiple things and fill multiple roles and that shows in this years draft with how many hybrid types he drafted.

Vera Tucker is also and most importantly an insurance policy at LT due to the fact Becton was missing a lot of snaps and a few games Vera Tucker can easily step in and has the experience to do so. Having that type of player is huge and you can forget the fact just how huge Becton is and how that might effect his body in the short and long term. JD realized this and put a premium on moving up to fill a role he's been talking about like I stated above. Easier to move Vera Tucker and plug in a guard than have an inexperienced Tackle protecting Zack's Blind side

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3 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

Vera Tucker is not only s damn good guard but he's a versatile player as well that fits exactly what JD has been preaching all along. He wants players that can do multiple things and fill multiple roles and that shows in this years draft with how many hybrid types he drafted.

Vera Tucker is also and most importantly an insurance policy at LT due to the fact Becton was missing a lot of snaps and a few games Vera Tucker can easily step in and has the experience to do so. Having that type of player is huge and you can forget the fact just how huge Becton is and how that might effect his body in the short and long term. JD realized this and put a premium on moving up to fill a role he's been talking about like I stated above. Easier to move Vera Tucker and plug in a guard than have an inexperienced Tackle protecting Zack's Blind side

If Becton were to miss any time, I’d expect Fant to move to the left side, Edoga on the right, and AVT to stay right where he is. 

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If AVT turns out to be another Mike Haight or Dave Cadigan  then trade up was a huge mistake. If AVT turns out to be Gene Upshaw trade was a stroke of genius. I for one am totally in favor of this trade Only time will tell 

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6 minutes ago, Paradis said:

mostly a defensive/ Jets homer post.

You want the analytics ppl to lie? It was a Draft Loaded with OGs, and we traded up for an OG...  Until AVT makes waves, we're gonna be graded against that decision. Don't be obtuse about it. 

You can still like the player and like the pick. Nothing wrong with that  - but don't be dense about the criticism. IOL was considered the deepest position in the draft - and we gave away two 3rd rnd picks for an OG. 

 

 

Pretty spot on. I think AVT is NFL ready and was the best guard prospect in the draft. I think Elijah Moore is going to be a very productive player on the Jets. Overall, I feel happy with the players from our draft.

But I also think the Jets squandered value and a chance to really come away with multiple OL picks in a deep draft or a quality edge or a better rated corner. 2nd and 3rd rounds were the money rounds for team-building and there was such a steep dropoff in talent somewhere in the 4th. We picked as if we are a playoff team looking to content for a title and not a rebuilding team with many needs. Trading up from 23 AND staying at 34 as a combination I think makes it especially hard.

End of day, potential to still be one of the best drafts we've had in the past 15 years or so.

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From everything I read prior to the draft, there was a ton of value for zone blocking OL in the mid rounds this year.  I was hoping Joe Douglas was going to take advantage of it, but he obviously chose to go in another direction and snag a high end prospect with a trade up in the first round.

Vera-Tucker will need to be a stud to justify the cost (both in terms of assets spent and opportunity cost) to obtain him.  How big is the drop off from Vera-Tucker to Darrisaw/Jenkins/other mid round solid grade prospects?  I don't have big issues with trading up, but if they decide to do so, I would prefer it's for a premium position.

Can it work out?  Sure.  Will it?  We'll see.

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2 minutes ago, CSNY said:

If AVT turns out to be another Mike Haight or Dave Cadigan  then trade up was a huge mistake. If AVT turns out to be Gene Upshaw trade was a stroke of genius. I for one am totally in favor of this trade Only time will tell 

Even if AVT ends up "meh" or "bad", it ends up being a good trade as long as the OL passed on also end up being at least a little bit worse. 

Thus, even if AVT wasn't truly the high-end prospect he was supposed to be, at least it was ALSO true that the OL prospects passed on definitely were bad prospects, as guessed properly by Douglas and all those who felt the prospects outside of the top 50/60 were almost impossible to evaluate under the COVID circumstances.  That would suggest the process by which the prospects were evaluated by Douglas was a good one.

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On 5/8/2021 at 8:13 AM, slats said:

The Jets entered the draft with a huge hole on the OL that they found themselves unable to fill in free agency, and Joe Douglas was determined not only to fill that hole, but to fill it with one of the top prospects on his board. The result was something of an overpay for an interior lineman. But that's what happens when you're either drafting for need or you fall in love with a specific player, and in this case it was both. In hindsight, if he had stayed put he could've drafted Elijah Moore, Tevin Jenkins, and kept the two third rounders (maybe drafting another guard prospect) and when you look at it like that, well, the value isn't great. 

But, bottom line, he filled that hole. If he's right on AVT, one side of the line is set for the next four or five years, and we really won't hear much more about that trade up to get him until it's time to re-up his contract. If he was wrong, we'll hear about it a lot. 

I don't think JD wanted to be in the position he was in, having to draft for need like that, and as the roster gets better hopefully he won't find himself in that position again anytime soon. 

pretty sure we had 3 holes on the OL and filled only 1 of them.

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34 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Even if AVT ends up "meh" or "bad", it ends up being a good trade as long as the OL passed on also end up being at least a little bit worse. 

Thus, even if AVT wasn't truly the high-end prospect he was supposed to be, at least it was ALSO true that the OL prospects passed on definitely were bad prospects, as guessed properly by Douglas and all those who felt the prospects outside of the top 50/60 were almost impossible to evaluate under the COVID circumstances.  That would suggest the process by which the prospects were evaluated by Douglas was a good one.

Isn;'t there a bit of difference between the draft day move itself and the long term outcome? It can still be a good move, but the player might not pan out. However, OG is the safest pick in the entire NFL draft so the likelihood AVT is very good is very high.

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24 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Even if AVT ends up "meh" or "bad", it ends up being a good trade as long as the OL passed on also end up being at least a little bit worse. 

Thus, even if AVT wasn't truly the high-end prospect he was supposed to be, at least it was ALSO true that the OL prospects passed on definitely were bad prospects, as guessed properly by Douglas and all those who felt the prospects outside of the top 50/60 were almost impossible to evaluate under the COVID circumstances.  That would suggest the process by which the prospects were evaluated by Douglas was a good one.

I'm not signing on for this.  I AVT ends up "meh" or "bad" and Darrishaw and Jenkins are worse, they still could have 2 other players in the 3rd.  What if Wyatt Davis is better than all of them?  It's happened before - I think Warford was probably better than Cooper or Warmack.  would you feel if you traded the Warford pick to draft Cooper?  What if any of the 8 corners taken in the 3rd round pan our?  Or the other bunch of offensive linemen?  Will Douglas still look good with a sh*tty LG then?  

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what i ascertain is jets would have drafted carter at 66 anyways,  so therefore we gave up a 84 and 107 (we got back a 143> I think) to upgrade to tucker (safest of all picks) over jenkins..

 

no trade might have been  jenkins, moore, carter at 66, 84? and 107, sherwood, carter2 and 226??

instead tucker, moore, carter, sherwood, carter2, and parlaying the 143 pick from tucker trade we got: echols, pinnock, marshall

 

so what some say allpro in tucker for years to make wilson safe on blindside for a decade over jenkins who is good but not tucker and we picked up a few late guys JD liked. Sure upgraded to tucker over what might have been at 84 and 107 (I say 107 cause jets would have picked carter at 66)

My guess JD wanted that decade long left side so wilson can  always feel he can slide left of he feels pressure for right side and he knew talent was there later so he parlayed that 143 pick into a few guys he likes.

Only time will tell... But I like knowing QB should feel confidense that left side is safe and also a dominant place for RBs to run or take dumpoff passes behind. 

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The Colts just signed Eric Fisher, pushing 30 and coming off ACL surgery, and passed on both Darisaw and Jenkins. For a win now team like them, maybe the most OT needy team in the draft to pass on those guys, makes you think that JD knew what he was doing, and traded up for a far superior player.

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49 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I'm not signing on for this.  I AVT ends up "meh" or "bad" and Darrishaw and Jenkins are worse, they still could have 2 other players in the 3rd.  What if Wyatt Davis is better than all of them?  It's happened before - I think Warford was probably better than Cooper or Warmack.  would you feel if you traded the Warford pick to draft Cooper?  What if any of the 8 corners taken in the 3rd round pan our?  Or the other bunch of offensive linemen?  Will Douglas still look good with a sh*tty LG then?  

So many what if’s. Everybody looking for a sure thing. Sometimes you gotta roll the dice and hope for the best.

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58 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I'm not signing on for this.  I AVT ends up "meh" or "bad" and Darrishaw and Jenkins are worse, they still could have 2 other players in the 3rd.  What if Wyatt Davis is better than all of them?  It's happened before - I think Warford was probably better than Cooper or Warmack.  would you feel if you traded the Warford pick to draft Cooper?  What if any of the 8 corners taken in the 3rd round pan our?  Or the other bunch of offensive linemen?  Will Douglas still look good with a sh*tty LG then?  

Sure.  In this situation, I can accept that the process was good but the result will have course been poor.  We would just disagree on how it got to that point.

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1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

Isn;'t there a bit of difference between the draft day move itself and the long term outcome? It can still be a good move, but the player might not pan out. However, OG is the safest pick in the entire NFL draft so the likelihood AVT is very good is very high.

Yes, absolutely.  Douglas' assessment of the prospects was strong from a big picture perspective, and he used that to determine it was worthwhile to trade up, and avoid a lot of the middle round prospects.  I think AVT absolutely will work out and make Douglas look good in hindsight.

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Even if AVT ends up "meh" or "bad", it ends up being a good trade as long as the OL passed on also end up being at least a little bit worse. 

Thus, even if AVT wasn't truly the high-end prospect he was supposed to be, at least it was ALSO true that the OL prospects passed on definitely were bad prospects, as guessed properly by Douglas and all those who felt the prospects outside of the top 50/60 were almost impossible to evaluate under the COVID circumstances.  That would suggest the process by which the prospects were evaluated by Douglas was a good one.

I wouldn't go that far. In a crazy-deep OL draft, if you're trading up into the top 15 for an OL prospect, you're expected to hit. If he whiffs for any reason other than an unexpected injury, it's a negative reflection on Douglas. There were almost 20 good OL prospects in this draft class. All of them won't hit, of course, but I'd be surprised if there weren't at least a half dozen taken at 23 or later that hit. 

For me the best rationalization - at the time - was something that didn't come to pass: it looked like 3-4 more OL picks were going to happen in the teens & early 20s before #23. I was pretty spot-on with someone like Humphrey being a major reach at 23 - not because he won't prove worthy of that draft slot, but because you could get him with our 3rd pick, and probably trade down and still get him in round 2. Turns out he went #63. But I think that's par for the course: some you guess right, some you don't. In both cases I was purely going by online mock draft tendencies, not any particular clairvoyance on my part. Also in fairness that was all said about Travis Frederick when Dallas took him at the bottom of round 1. At the time, he was almost universally considered the worst pick of the day. If he's an annual probowl/all-pro lineman, no one will care where he was drafted, particularly outside the top 10.

If they really had AVT as #7 on their board, you'd expect them to move up to make this pick and get - in their minds - 2 of the top 7 players in the whole draft, and have them both at such big team needs. If ends up playing like a top 10 pick, I'm totally good with the trade-up even if someone else picked 8 OL selections later pans out about as good, since the odds of nailing that one are lower, it's harder to predict who'll still be there later, and the Jets had (and still have) no shortage of picks.

However if AVT is meh or bad, then Douglas will be rightly vilified for wasting not just the original 1st rounder, but a high 3rd and yet another 3rd. If you do this, it's reasonable to expect that you're correct, and for fans to be intolerant if you're not.

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1 hour ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

 

Pretty spot on. I think AVT is NFL ready and was the best guard prospect in the draft. I think Elijah Moore is going to be a very productive player on the Jets. Overall, I feel happy with the players from our draft.

But I also think the Jets squandered value and a chance to really come away with multiple OL picks in a deep draft or a quality edge or a better rated corner. 2nd and 3rd rounds were the money rounds for team-building and there was such a steep dropoff in talent somewhere in the 4th. We picked as if we are a playoff team looking to content for a title and not a rebuilding team with many needs. Trading up from 23 AND staying at 34 as a combination I think makes it especially hard.

End of day, potential to still be one of the best drafts we've had in the past 15 years or so.

This is a weird draft in that there was quite of bit of talent available on day 4. The real dropoff was after the top 16 and this draft will be regarded as one of the worst drafts in recent memory because of the lack of true scouting on these prospects. AVT was one of the safest picks in this draft where Brandt/Kiper both had him as a top 10 prospect. The Jets came away with 3 of the top 16 players in this draft. Also, the Jets would have drafted Michael Carter at 66 as per JD.

So what are they going to do with their other 3rd round (86) or their 107th pick? Assuming they overdraft at 23 for Jenkins to play guard with AVT and Darrisaw both being gone.

The way I see it, the Jets came away with the best OL in the draft, yes better then Sewell and Slater for what would have amounted to a couple of 3rd rounders. With the Jets, I just want them to hit on their high draft picks.

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Posted (edited)

https://overthecap.com/valuing-the-top-trade-ups-in-the-2021-nfl-draft/
 

The concept of trading up in the NFL Draft is always a hot topic. Almost every team that trades up gives up far too much for a trade up but the trade is quickly defended because of the player that is selected.  The basic defense is every draft pick made by every other team is basically just a guy but this one particular player targeted by my team is special. Why?  Well football that’s why. Historically the trade up team actually “wins” 20 to 25% of the time so there is a chance that those saying it was a great trade are correct. With that in mind I thought what if we came up with a way to measure that “specialness”.

One of the things that I’ve mentioned through the years and I believe discussed on the podcast last week is that trade charts should never be static. The charts need to be dynamic to account for various factors with a primary one being the positional strength of the selection- a QB for example should cost more than a running back because he is far more valuable to a team. But static charts are what we have always used and so we usually look at trades that way.

When Brad and I worked on the Drafting Stage we wanted to take positional variability out of the equation since we were making a static chart based on average contract outcomes. Using salary data alone was skewing results because a “bust” of a QB (think Marcus Mariota) would outearn a solid hit at a less expensive position. To make the chart position independent we restated everyone’s salary based on the market conditions at the time, thus turning the $9 million QB into something like a 30% value while the $13 million running back would be like a 90% value, solving the problem of market inequalities.

We converted these percentages into a point system because, well that is what everyone does, but what if we utilized those percentages to make our draft chart dynamic to evaluate the draft trades?  What I did here was calculate the average of the top five contracts at every position and multiplied that by the percentage value of every pick. For example the top pick in the draft is expected to be worth 98.3% making Trevor Lawrence worth, on average, $37.8 million per year in today’s NFL market.

Since teams that trade up are trading up for a player we can calculate the expected return based on the specific position that they draft. Likewise we can determine the trade away numbers by taking into account the average result of the picks they traded away. To do that we multiply each pick by the average top 5 positional salary which is about $17.8M with QBs taken out of the list. We don’t use positions here because the trade down is blind. I also used the blind number if a team that traded up received a 2nd pick as part of the trade. As for future considerations I value those simply as being a middle of the round pick the following year or years. You can discount if you want but I just wanted to see the actual potential value being given up not weighing whether or not that how unimportant that is to my situation.

If we add the numbers all together we can determine how much value the teams wound up down in a trade up. By looking at this as a salary we can also determine the exact amount that the player they traded up for would need to add to his expected value to “balance out the trade”. Hence we can see just how special the player has to be to justify the trade.

I only looked at trade ups into the first and second round this year but also included a very oddball trade that the Texans made which included a future pick.

12. Browns Select LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah- $1.040 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
52 $5,097,979 59 $5,434,377
113 $3,517,506 89 $4,221,754
       
Difference ($1,040,646)    

Trading up for a linebacker is one of those decisions that is questionable. It is a position available in free agency and a position that ranks lower on the salary scale despite the presence of a few albatross contracts. Still as far as overpayments go the Browns did not do bad here at all losing about $1M in value. Owusu-Koramoah should bring in $5.1M in value to the team and they need him to be around $6M. That is the equivalent of a jump from what the market perceives AJ Klein to be compared to Jayon Brown. That is a reasonable ask.

11. Bears Select QB Justin Fields-$1.259 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
11 $22,509,001 20 $8,625,390
    164 $2,418,802
    16 $9,283,599
    116 $3,440,217
Difference ($1,259,007)    

While the Giants are rightfully being praised for accepting this deal since they were not taking a QB this is also a no brainer for the QB starved Bears. Despite giving up four selections Chicago only comes out about $1.3 million in the red because the pick was used on such a high value position. Depending on how next years 1 turns out the trade could slant more or less in their favor.  A $1M difference in the QB market is the difference between Carson Wentz and Jared Goff, whatever that may be. It is worth nothing that there are really no QBs that fit this salary range (Teddy Bridgewater and Nick Foles are the most recent) so Fields will either blow past this number or fall far below it. Chicago has some insurance against next years 1 being extra high due to having a veteran QB who may play some this year on a veteran team that has been decent the last few years .

10. Eagles Select WR DeVonta Smith-$1.491 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
10 $13,033,220 12 $10,132,179
    84 $4,392,305
       
Difference ($1,491,264)    

The Eagles are one of the smarter teams in the NFL and this move fits that mold giving up under $1.5M to make a bit of a leap in the first round for basically a 3rd round pick. By taking a receiver they take a premier position which is a decent use of the trade up. A $1.5 million leap is more or less the difference between Tyler Boyd and Corey Davis, so not something where we would require a massive jump in performance to make the trade worthwhile. Basically they need him to be a top 20 receiver to make this fair.

9. 49ers Select QB Trey Lance-$2.422 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
3 $30,812,719 12 $10,132,179
    16 $9,283,599
    16 $9,283,599
    80 $4,536,222
Difference ($2,422,881)    

This is a trade that San Francisco will take heat on because they misread the market for QBs in the draft but one that stands a reasonable chance of paying off. Lance would need to give the 49ers about $33 million in value which means he needs to be Kirk Cousins. At $30 million he would be closer to Ryan Tannehill. Im not sure there is an appreciable difference between those two in reality but that gives you the idea of the type of player Lance has to be to make the trade one the 49ers won’t regret. Due to them giving up two first round picks and a chance that one of them could be a very high pick in Lance busts this is a much riskier trade than the Bears one, but it did give the 49ers the ability to pick their guy here.  

8. Raiders Select S Trevon Moehrig-$2.727 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Traded Expected Value
43 $5,210,275 48 $6,043,010
230 $1,421,172 121 $3,315,738
       
Difference ($2,727,302)    

This is very similar to trading up for a linebacker in that it makes little sense given the positional value where the team actually gives up more by taking a safety than they would sitting pat and “being forced” to take another player. A safety at 43 would be expected to bring about $5.2 million in value to the team which is around the Chuck Clark/Eric Rowe salary range. He will need to be in the Rayshawn Jenkins range to make up the difference. What really ruins this for the Raiders was giving up that second high pick but only getting back number 230. They should have gotten a higher selection in return somewhere around 160. That was where they lost out

7. Bears Select OT Teven Jenkins- $2.82 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
39 $6,526,999 52 $5,806,907
151 $2,662,409 83 $4,427,632
    204 $1,775,017
       
Difference ($2,820,148)    

This was a harder trade to judge because at the time of the draft I would have considered Jenkins a right tackle which would have put the Bears over $4 million down in the trade. I split the value between the two positions which now makes much more sense for Chicago. This is one of those positions where there are no real comparables at $6.5 million (Riley Reiff is around that number but is an older player) so this is either going to be a home run for the Bears as competent starters at left tackle are worth $14 million a year or a flop as non competent left tackles make about $2 million a year. If he does play right tackle he would need to be a top 10 player at the position to make it an even trade.

6. Broncos Select RB Javonte Williams- $2.924 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
35 $5,582,768 40 $6,580,806
219 $1,565,730 114 $3,491,518
       
       
Difference ($2,923,826)    

I hated this trade when it happened and was actually surprised it wasn’t worse than this. Why anyone packages a second useful pick to move up five spots to grab a running back is beyond me The Broncos expected value here is that of a Kenyan Drake and they will need Williams to wind up being looked at more like Melvin Gordon, who coincidentally is on the Broncos. That would require Williams to be the 8th best back in the NFL. Unlike the other players on this list there is usually little value in the RB beyond the first four years so this is probably a tough one to justify but not as bad as I thought.

5. Texans Select WR Nico Collins- $4.436 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
89 $5,156,812 109 $3,623,814
    158 $2,528,742
    116 $3,440,217
       
Difference ($4,435,960)    

This is the lone pick I looked at that was not a 1st or 2nd round pick because it was just so bizarre. The team gives up a 4 an a 5 and a future 4 in order to jump into the 3rd round to take a receiver. The expected return here is about $5 million which is the David Moore class of receiver. They need him to nearly double his value to justify the trade and move into the Jamison Crowder/Robby Anderson production level. That 86% required increase is the 2nd highest in the draft this year. There is no explanation that makes any sense for this trade outside of them believing he is a first round talent that only they saw as a 1st rounder.  Given where this trade occurred this was probably the worst trade in the draft even if not the most costly.

4. Patriots Select DT Christian Barmore- $4.638 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
38 $7,728,758 46 $6,168,549
    122 $3,291,460
    139 $2,906,662
       
Difference ($4,637,913)    

The Patriots have been the most aggressive team this offseason and this trade was in line with that with the Patriots giving up two additional picks to jump 8 spots in the draft for Barmore. The expected production for an interior D-lineman at this spot would be similar to that of Roy Robertson-Harris and Davon Godchaux. The amount the Patriots gave up would need to put the pick closer to the Javon Hargrave/Stephon Tuitt/Akiem Hicks group. This would be an expected jump from around a top 25 player to just outside the top 10. That’s a gigantic leap.

3. Dolphins Select WR Jaylen Waddle- $4.863 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
6 $14,873,740 12 $10,132,179
156 $2,946,248 123 $3,267,381
    16 $9,283,599
       
Difference ($4,863,171)    

I defended this trade for the Dolphins when it was made with the expectation they were either still aiming for a QB or hoping to trade back with a QB needy team. Instead they end up trading an extra first round pick for a wide receiver who winds up not even being the top receiver taken. When they made this trade the board was pretty much set to where you knew they were getting the leftovers of the TE/WR group so its not as if they didn’t know what they were doing when they made this trade either. The expected return here is around the 15th highest paid receiver in the NFL and they will need him to him to play around the level of the top 5, similar to that of an Amari Cooper or Michael Thomas.

2. Dolphins Select RT Liam Eichenberg- $5.128 Million Given Up

Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
42 $5,331,259 50 $5,922,597
    80 $4,536,222
       
Difference ($5,127,560)    

This was another terrible trade for Miami giving up a 3rd next year that they hope everyone will forget about to move up 8 spots to take a position where the top players on average are drafted in the 4th round. They need to get nearly double the value from Eicenberg, about 10% more than the other two trades requiring a massive jump. They will need him to go from a projected level of around Zach Banner, around the 20th highest paid, to Bryan Bulaga who is the fifth highest paid. Now Eichenberg is versatile and perhaps could wind up at left tackle or guard which changes the equation and would not make it as bad as shown here but if right tackle is the spot they need him to be a top tier player.  

1. Jets Select G Alija Vera-Tucker- $6.801 Million Given Up

  Selection Expected Value Added Traded Expected Value Lost
14 $8,015,230 23 $8,213,133
143 $2,822,977 66 $5,103,664
    86 $4,322,897
       
Difference ($6,801,487)    

The Jets, by far, gave up the most to trade up this year. Guard is one of the lower valued positions that a team can draft and the Jets lose value just based on that alone. The expected return for pick 14 would be around $8 million for a guard, around the level of player as Gabe Jackson- basically the 13th or so highest paid guard in the league. To balance out the trade the Jets need him to increase that figure to $14.8 million. Among players on a multi-year contract that would mean he has to end up the second highest paid guard in the NFL. That’s a huge hill to climb and a very bullish assessment by the Jets as it would be the highest expectation level for any player in this years draft.

Edited by 32EBoozer
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