Trade up and pick of AVT being scrutinized (merged)

[Joe W. Namath]

Who cares.  We have AVT.  Lets move on.

[Sammybighead]

Agreed, we got the guy literally every Jets fan wanted. Now all we’re doing is second guessing it based on some chart. Fantastic.

[Augustiniak]

The reality of trading up is, if the guy you drafted is good, nobody cares.  We all complained about what mccagnan gave up to get darnold but if darnold were good, we’d be ok with that.

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

 

Pretty spot on. I think AVT is NFL ready and was the best guard prospect in the draft. I think Elijah Moore is going to be a very productive player on the Jets. Overall, I feel happy with the players from our draft.

But I also think the Jets squandered value and a chance to really come away with multiple OL picks in a deep draft or a quality edge or a better rated corner. 2nd and 3rd rounds were the money rounds for team-building and there was such a steep dropoff in talent somewhere in the 4th. We picked as if we are a playoff team looking to content for a title and not a rebuilding team with many needs. Trading up from 23 AND staying at 34 as a combination I think makes it especially hard.

End of day, potential to still be one of the best drafts we've had in the past 15 years or so.

It's an interesting and telling draft for Joe Douglas... 

• There are GMs who let the board slide to them, and--
• there are GMs who have their crosshairs on a few names and they do what they can do get them..

Both methods have pros and cons... Joe's revealed himself to be the latter IMO... and i appreciate that confidence and focus (especially if it works out)... However the scenario where Joe's approach will yield a few winces/grimaces is when you ignore the value/strength of a draft class - and stay locked in like he did on AVT... Time will tell if there was a lesson to be learned here or not. 

[thebuzzardman]

Long and boring way to state they thought Jets trade sucked

[IndianaJet]

What’s the value of not having to worry about the left side of the line for the next 10 years?

[RutgersJetFan]

In any other year viewing trades in a vacuum from a positional standpoint makes sense. 2021 was just a preposterous year for trying to grade all of these guys and I think the positional aspect of things had to get thrown out the window in hindsight. So many unsure things, if it took a couple of third rounders to ensure your first 3 picks were starters then you have to take that regardless of position. 

[Beerfish]

I think a few things mitigates this trade.

Guard is a position that is rising in value.

Pairing a LT and high end LG creates a mini super unit on the left side.

The Jets have drafted a new young Qb increasing the value of oline.

Douglas's sin in this draft is the same sin he committed in his first draft.  Not double dipping at a position of need in a draft deep in those positions.  He should have taken a 2nd Wr last year and a 2nd olineman this year.  It is almost as if he made moves both years and then said, okay we're good for this year when we were not.

I like Douglas and think he is the best GM we have had in a while but imo he has had a slip up in each of his 1st two drafts by not double dipping. (WR, OL)

[artemusclyde]

4 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

Vera Tucker is not only s damn good guard but he's a versatile player as well that fits exactly what JD has been preaching all along. He wants players that can do multiple things and fill multiple roles and that shows in this years draft with how many hybrid types he drafted.

Vera Tucker is also and most importantly an insurance policy at LT due to the fact Becton was missing a lot of snaps and a few games Vera Tucker can easily step in and has the experience to do so. Having that type of player is huge and you can forget the fact just how huge Becton is and how that might effect his body in the short and long term. JD realized this and put a premium on moving up to fill a role he's been talking about like I stated above. Easier to move Vera Tucker and plug in a guard than have an inexperienced Tackle protecting Zack's Blind side

If Vera Tucker is playing left tackle we have issues. Watch the Oregon game where he was beat up on by the Oregon kids. He's strictly a guard/right tackle. Honestly his versatility is pretty overrated, Jenkins can play guard/right tackle too. Still not a fan of the trade up, really would have preferred us to take Jenkins or Darrisaw at 23 and another lineman in the 3rd.

[jetswinbaby!]

(Time Spent Reading Thread) minus (Value of Time Spent Reading Thread) =

(Less Than Zero / Worst Thread of All Time)...

[DoubleDown]

It's a fair assessment.

The Jets gave up substantial assets to move up for a guard in a draft that was supposedly deep at the position.

The Jets obviously had a high grade on Vera-Tucker and did what they had to do to get him.  He will need to be a stud in order for this trade to be viewed as a win for the Jets long term.

[Icer]

If AVT is as promising as Becton and we only have to hate GVR/Fant this year its a huge win regardless of what else could have been

[Dcat]

I'm happy OTC gave appropriate credit to Douglas here.  Joe Douglas viewed AVT as an elite prospect.  He was in his top 10 and it was a position of great need.  That's all that matters when trying to justify the trade up.   All the previous pundit criticisms of the trade up basically sh*t on Joe Douglas' evaluation skills and draft board.  We'll see who is right in a couple of years.  I'll put my bet on Douglas with this one and with Becton.

 

[Sammybighead]

One thing all these draft chart warriors fail to mention is how good AVT was at LEFT TACKLE as well. He is versatile and can play multiple positions in a pinch at a high level. This also significantly increases his value. Add in the fact that he's athletic and nimble for a zone scheme yet powerful enough to knock guys off the line, you can see why JD gave up assets for him.

[David Harris]

24 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I think a few things mitigates this trade.

Guard is a position that is rising in value.

Pairing a LT and high end LG creates a mini super unit on the left side.

The Jets have drafted a new young Qb increasing the value of oline.

Douglas's sin in this draft is the same sin he committed in his first draft.  Not double dipping at a position of need in a draft deep in those positions.  He should have taken a 2nd Wr last year and a 2nd olineman this year.  It is almost as if he made moves both years and then said, okay we're good for this year when we were not.

I like Douglas and think he is the best GM we have had in a while but imo he has had a slip up in each of his 1st two drafts by not double dipping. (WR, OL)

I agree. JD is our best GM in recent memory, and he should have double dipped both years.

 

I think the Jets THINK they got Zach Martin.  In a crazy year of draft analysis take the surest elite guy you can at a position of desperate need.  
 

I just love that AVT is on the team and am happy it didn’t cost a 2nd rounder and that we have all our future picks. 

 

Thuney just got $16, Scherff $18 per. the Jets scouting Dept really thinks AVT is the next great guard

 

[Jet2020]

Anything to get a click. Might as well run a porn site. You get automatic clicks. 

[Jetscode1]

33 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

In any other year viewing trades in a vacuum from a positional standpoint makes sense. 2021 was just a preposterous year for trying to grade all of these guys and I think the positional aspect of things had to get thrown out the window in hindsight. So many unsure things, if it took a couple of third rounders to ensure your first 3 picks were starters then you have to take that regardless of position. 

 

29 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I think a few things mitigates this trade.

Guard is a position that is rising in value.

Pairing a LT and high end LG creates a mini super unit on the left side.

The Jets have drafted a new young Qb increasing the value of oline.

Douglas's sin in this draft is the same sin he committed in his first draft.  Not double dipping at a position of need in a draft deep in those positions.  He should have taken a 2nd Wr last year and a 2nd olineman this year.  It is almost as if he made moves both years and then said, okay we're good for this year when we were not.

I like Douglas and think he is the best GM we have had in a while but imo he has had a slip up in each of his 1st two drafts by not double dipping. (WR, OL)

I'm in agreement with most of these two posts.  2021 was a challenge, to say the least, as far as scouting.  In addition, my take is the chart is developed for average teams not a 2-14 squad that just deflated the confidence of our previous overall #3 QB.  Situational leadership often demands a different approach from average teams.  Assess your needs and wants.  Douglas had to build the OL so has his now #2 overall QB can develop.  Giving up two third rounders is mitigated by the  enhanced need to provide stability or we risk history repeating itself.  If AVT can develop alongside Mount Becton we have a good start toward an average NFL offense.  

[Morrissey]

41 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

What’s the value of not having to worry about the left side of the line for the next 10 years?

what's the value of ignoring the right side? that could of been addressed along with the left side if we kept our two 3rds.

[thshadow]

Keep in mind that even though Jason says he wants a dynamic chart, not a static one - all he's doing is a points system modified by position.  It doesn't take into account anything about the talent available.  (Which frankly would be impossible without seeing teams' draft boards.)  And I think it's totally fair to say we overpaid a ton based on a draft value chart modified by position, given that we took a guard.

But it's all kindof stupid.  Obviously JD valued the G he could get there over the G / OL he'd take at 23 by a lot.  From his point of view, the logical thing to do is to pay not based on a static chart, but rather what their draft board says is the drop-off in talent from 14 to 23.  If he thinks AVT will be a top-5 guard, and he thinks the next best would be an average to below-average starter, then he underpaid.

In a few years, we'll find out if he was right.

[Morrissey]

Jets are telling us Vera-Tucker is as good as Quenton Nelson or Zack Martin. He better be for that price. 

[Dcat]

On 5/8/2021 at 8:45 AM, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Draft value and $2.75 gets you on an NYC bus. Drafting quality players wins games, divisions, and championships. The only time draft value charts matter is when you give up the farm for a failed player. Nobody will remember or care about draft value if AVT becomes the player he was drafted to be. Value is fluid and changes over time. I don't have the the value for the trade the Chiefs made to trade up for Pat Mahomes, but I guarantee you that nobody cares if the Chiefs got "hosed" on the draft value chart at the time. (Yes, I am aware that AVT is not a QB)

I'd prefer if JD wins out on draft trade value, but I'm also ok with losing out on draft trade value if he hits on the picks. My guess is that the AVT trade up was the exception, and not the rule. 

 

AVT in top 10 of Joe Douglas draft board, so it has been reported.   All the analytics people complaining about value need to wake up and realize that to get a top 10 guy on your entire board while at the same time filling a dire position of need is getting tremendous value.  To the analytics, all they see is AVT is a guard.  Nothing more.  To them it doesn't matter that this guard is within the top 10 on the GMs very own draft board.  That, they summarily dismiss. Everybody thinks their own draft board is better.  I'll stand by JDs in this case. 

[Dcat]

On 5/8/2021 at 8:52 AM, rangerous said:

The pick is a success if tucker starts and is successful fight out of the box. The odds of getting such a player in the third round is slim so the move makes good sense.  Let’s hope he’s not another Cadigan

OMG. Cadigan. Cadigan turned out to be a stiff.  Wasn't Mike Haight a guard picked in round 1 also or was it round 2? 

[genot]

In hindsight i think having Jenkins and Greg Newsome in camp would have been better for us. Can't fault JD for what is obviously a strong conviction for AVT, and doing what was needed to get him.

[DetroitRed]

The most important factors  in a trade up is whether the player goes on to be high impact, and the relative performance of the  players that could have been selected 

[Lith]

33 minutes ago, Dcat said:

AVT in top 10 of Joe Douglas draft board, so it has been reported.   All the analytics people complaining about value need to wake up and realize that to get a top 10 guy on your entire board while at the same time filling a dire position of need is getting tremendous value.  To the analytics, all they see is AVT is a guard.  Nothing more.  To them it doesn't matter that this guard is within the top 10 on the GMs very own draft board.  That, they summarily dismiss. Everybody thinks their own draft board is better.  I'll stand by JDs in this case. 

Agreed.  I think the other factor that gets thrown around is the "we could have had two starters if we picked an OL in the 3rd" argument. 

Yup, that 3rd rouder could have been Joe Thuney or Orlando Brown.  Probably the two best 3rd round OL picks in the past several years.  But more likely that 3rd rounder would have been Dan Feeney, Pat Elflein, Spencer Long or Brian Winters --also 3rd round picks who are much more representative of the 3rd round OL picked over the last 8-10 years.  And they could have been Antonio Garcia, Max Tuerk or Brandon Thomas -- 3rd rounders who never started a game in thier careers.  

Yes, we overpaid to get the guy.  But he is the guy we really wanted.  IF AVT is the player Douglas thinks he can be, the price is not that significant.  If he is a bust, its a bad trade no matter what we gave up.

For years we have been killed, and rightfully so, for sending a young QB out behind a weak OL.  We make an aggressive move to get the OL we really wanted.  And now we get killed for overpaying.  Sometimes you just can't win.

[Smashmouth]

6 hours ago, slats said:

If Becton were to miss any time, I’d expect Fant to move to the left side, Edoga on the right, and AVT to stay right where he is. 

We will see how that plays out ... best case is Becton goes Brick and does not miss a snap but I'm not sure that's realistic. Honestly I was a little shocked we moved up and gave up 2 -  3's to do it but I'm guessing Douglas knows his sh*t being a lineman himself. 

 

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

AVT in top 10 of Joe Douglas draft board, so it has been reported.   All the analytics people complaining about value need to wake up and realize that to get a top 10 guy on your entire board while at the same time filling a dire position of need is getting tremendous value.  To the analytics, all they see is AVT is a guard.  Nothing more.  To them it doesn't matter that this guard is within the top 10 on the GMs very own draft board.  That, they summarily dismiss. Everybody thinks their own draft board is better.  I'll stand by JDs in this case. 

I agree with the general sentiment, but getting at top 10 player on your draft board at 14 really isn't that great a value.  I also don't stand by JD's draft board.  It is enough for me if he stands by it.  

[Claymation]

what's the value of ignoring the right side? that could of been addressed along with the left side if we kept our two 3rds.

I am not sure having 2 starting rookie OL with a rookie QB is a good idea.

Plus Jenkins is not as good as AVT.

[jgb]

If Wilson has the good they win. Otherwise, another fail draft.

[rangerous]

11 hours ago, Dcat said:

OMG. Cadigan. Cadigan turned out to be a stiff.  Wasn't Mike Haight a guard picked in round 1 also or was it round 2? 

haight wasn't that good either.  i think he was from iowa.  but at least they were using high picks for oline players.

[Shockwave]

4 hours ago, thshadow said:

Keep in mind that even though Jason says he wants a dynamic chart, not a static one - all he's doing is a points system modified by position.  It doesn't take into account anything about the talent available.  (Which frankly would be impossible without seeing teams' draft boards.)  And I think it's totally fair to say we overpaid a ton based on a draft value chart modified by position, given that we took a guard.

But it's all kindof stupid.  Obviously JD valued the G he could get there over the G / OL he'd take at 23 by a lot.  From his point of view, the logical thing to do is to pay not based on a static chart, but rather what their draft board says is the drop-off in talent from 14 to 23.  If he thinks AVT will be a top-5 guard, and he thinks the next best would be an average to below-average starter, then he underpaid.

In a few years, we'll find out if he was right.

Theres going to be a ton of responses in this thread. 99% of the responses will come from people that didn't bother to read the rationale behind Jason's system. 

Let me save you all some reading - Jason's system is trash and just a way to make his subjective viewpoints look like they have some statistical backing. 

For example the bears traded up and gave up a ton to move up 9 spots so he then assigned Justin Fields 22.5m of value as he's a QB so the trade in his opinion is pretty close to even. So what happens if Justin Fields sucks? What happens if the guy gets benched next year? In Jason's system a team could have traded into the first for Christian Hackenberg and looked Brilliant. 

A few spots after the bears move up the Jets traded up the same 9 spots the bears did. Yet he gave the Jets only 8m of value for spot 14 bc it was a guard. 3 spots after giving pick bears pick 22m of value. 

Jason's system is trash. There is absolutely no factors that include talent or a general consensus on prospects or how they fit on teams. We have seen  legitimate systems like QBASE make sure to include that. It's a system that overly favors the highest paying positions which essentially equates to any non premium position picked in the draft being a poor pick. Incredibly simplistic and lazy system. You guys likely spent more time analyzing this trade then he took to put this article together. 

[More Cowbell]

I don't think the was a value pick or even JD was thinking  this was a good deal by the numbers, this was a statement pick. This was to tell Zack and everyone that we are not going screw this up again, we are going to help this QB. 

[GreenFish]

I tend to agree with the analytics guys but thought a trade up was best for us. We have a ton of cap space and draft picks next year. We have plenty of resources to get the Wyatt Davis’ of the world (1 3rd and 2 4ths). The Jets need top end talent. We got 3 highly rated prospects in this draft.

Does anyone expect Wyatt Davis to be as good as Van Rotten or Alex Lewis?

 

[section314]

To put a new spin on an old phrase ..."those who can, do. Those who can't get into analytics."

[Shockwave]

A week later and I still can't believe people are upset at trading 3rd round picks to potentially acquire a Pro Bowl or All Pro player. 

It's the 3rd round. The chance of these picks hitting are usually have a  30% of hitting as opposed to the 86% chance of lineman hitting in round 1. Our last few 3rd round picks have been Jachai Polite, Chuma Edoga and Zuninga. 

There are just so many factors specifically in this draft most are ignoring. We settled on Wilson a month before the draft so this was extremely thought out. It was a Covid draft in which the talent was depleted and 3rd rounders may have been selected in the 5th round in other years per several scouts pre draft. The Bears gave up a future first(Premium Pick) a few picks before this yet we were able to make this trade for 3rds (Non Premium picks). Our mid round lineman (Edoga + Clarke) have not sniffed the field and lastly this pick reinforces Douglas's other high picks (Wilson + Becton). 

How many times did you all read that there were only 15 true first round graded players this year? Meaning the 23rd pick would have been a second round graded player? If your staring at the Jets draft board and your looking at Tevin Jenkins ranked 40th on your board and AVT ranked 7th well then I would think you would be pretty pumped about the move. 

So while PFF and these other guys certainly are making a point- Its only one piece of the pie when your evaluating the trade and who we picked up. 

For me - Its a week after and the theme Im seeing in all the FA and Draft decisions are the Jets are swinging for the fences attempting to get All Pro's rather then average players and I love it. I truly hope the Jets continue to be aggressive in FA/the Draft like they did this year from the Lawson signing to the AVT selection all the way down to Pinnock/Marshall picks. Best offseason in 20 years.