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If you can guarantee 4 new starters after each NFL draft for your team, and those starters had 7-10 year careers, would you be content?


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I want to expand on my title.  If those 4 starters stayed relatively healthy for their careers, then how would you feel?

For me, the Jets seem to have 4 solid starters from this years draft.  One thing that I believe is overlooked, is that "likelihood of injury" should be factored into the analysis on whether a pick is a good one or not.  

For instance, if Vera Tucker is a guy who has no real history of serious injuries, and a guy who projects almost as good as him has the history of injury, then the difference in picking the two is not as close as their potential abilities.  So, if Tucker is a 10 year starter with no major injury, and the other guy almost as good is continuously injured, then the pick of Tucker would be theoretically much higher than the one with a propensity of getting injured.

This year, the Jets got 4 guys who project to be solid starters.  The only question I have is our new QB in terms of future injury, but if the Jets felt that he was not a major concern, then it is a home run.  Also, the Jets have a obligation to protect him with solid offensive linemen, and another reason to guarantee yourself the quality of a Vera Tucker at #14. If Wilson gets injured as a result of poor line play, then I blame the Jets organization for not protecting him, and not the fact that Wilson may be prone to injury.

If the Jets can get 4 solid starters every year for 5 years, in effect they turn over their entire roster to successful organization building through the draft.  When has the Jets gotten 4 quality starters from the draft in past years?  Not too often, I promise you that!

Trading up for Vera Tucker is stupid to argue, because as many "experts" have said, he is the safest pick that the Jets could have made at that position. Guaranteeing one of those 4 starters for the future makes the argument of if the Jets gave up too much null and void.

Remember Milliner, the top 10 draft pick of the Jets?  He had a history of injury, and although he was enormously talented, was an awful pick when the Jets picked him due to injury concerns.  

Injury is a big part of the game, and for whatever reason, the Jets are one of the worst teams at keeping their players healthy.

I understand that you can not predict injuries, but you CAN predict injuries if the player has a history of injuries in the past.  This is also why I believe that the linebacker Nadissijjan or whatever his name is fell to us when he did in the 6th round.  He was a first round talent if you looked at the predictions 1 year ago.

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1 minute ago, CanadaSteve said:

Presuming you mean 7 draft picks every year, one for each round:

If you got 4 players who can contribute every year, and 1-2  of them are starters every year, you would be employed for a long time.

If you got 4 starters from every draft that played for your team for 7-10 years, you would be the greatest GM that ever existed.

 

Exactly my point.  It seems that the Jets really did get 4 starters this year.

I mean, the QB is a lock; Vera Tucker is a lock, and our second round wide receiver seems to be a lock for many, many snaps, whether he is marked down as the starter or not.  Same thing with Michael Carter, our new running back.  

If (2) two of the other 6 draft picks pan out to contribute significant time on the field, then our draft is a grand slam. 

 

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1 minute ago, Alka said:

Exactly my point.  It seems that the Jets really did get 4 starters this year.

I mean, the QB is a lock; Vera Tucker is a lock, and our second round wide receiver seems to be a lock for many, many snaps, whether he is marked down as the starter or not.  Same thing with Michael Carter, our new running back.  

If (2) two of the other 6 draft picks pan out to contribute significant time on the field, then our draft is a grand slam. 

 

You do know what happens when you assume?

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I expect my GM to make my team be competitive, talent wise,, and to keep them competitive over time.

The Draft isn't an algebra problem where we can solve for X.

If we need 7 starters, I expect my GM to find 7 starters who will make our team be competitive, talent wise. 

Be it via FA, or the Draft, or our own practice squad.

If we're not competitive talent wise, then I'm not "content".

 

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3 minutes ago, peebag said:

You do know what happens when you assume?

Listen, all we can all do at this time is assume.  We won't know anything until it happens.

If we can't assume, then what is there to talk about?

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Just now, Alka said:

Listen, all we can all do at this time is assume.  We won't know anything until it happens.

If we can't assume, then what is there to talk about?

Exactly.

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I think when people start counting starters acquired as a good draft, my eyes glaze over.  Did we get Victor Hobson, Chris Baker and two other guys like that?  If so, big ******* deal.  There is a reason we talk about difference makers.  They make a difference.  Just getting starters is not enough.  You need a guy or two every couple of years that is more than that.

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3 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

There will be 6 or 7 starters from this draft.

Just shows you what an inept roster JD has had to revise. Easily the worst in NFL since Detroit Lions went 0-16. 

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9 minutes ago, Alka said:

Exactly my point.  It seems that the Jets really did get 4 starters this year.

I mean, the QB is a lock; Vera Tucker is a lock, and our second round wide receiver seems to be a lock for many, many snaps, whether he is marked down as the starter or not.  Same thing with Michael Carter, our new running back.  

If (2) two of the other 6 draft picks pan out to contribute significant time on the field, then our draft is a grand slam. 

 

Apologies if you meant just this year.  I thought you meant every year.  Yes, if you can have a draft where you find four starters for 7-10 years, that is a FANTASTIC draft.  But it is inconceivable to do that year in and year out.

Now, if Douglas can consistently get production out of 3-4 players every year, and find at least one starter, he'll be here quite awhile.

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6 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Is this a trick question

Forget this tricky business. Let me ask you a real question. If you played the lottery 10 times and could guarantee you'd win the jackpot only 3 of those times, would you be content?

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1 minute ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Forget this tricky business. Let me ask you a real question. If you played the lottery 10 times and could guarantee you'd win the jackpot only 3 of those times, would you be content?

I like your style GWJ!

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2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think when people start counting starters acquired as a good draft, my eyes glaze over.  Did we get Victor Hobson, Chris Baker and two other guys like that?  If so, big ******* deal.  There is a reason we talk about difference makers.  They make a difference.  Just getting starters is not enough.  You need a guy or two every couple of years that is more than that.

Getting a starter from the draft means that they are better than the player they are replacing, in theory.   Getting better is where I want the Jets to go.  

It seems to me that the Jets may have gotten at least 3 difference makers with the first 3 picks, and that is exciting.  

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21 minutes ago, Alka said:

Exactly my point.  It seems that the Jets really did get 4 starters this year.

I mean, the QB is a lock; Vera Tucker is a lock, and our second round wide receiver seems to be a lock for many, many snaps, whether he is marked down as the starter or not.  Same thing with Michael Carter, our new running back.  

If (2) two of the other 6 draft picks pan out to contribute significant time on the field, then our draft is a grand slam. 

 

No one is a lock.

People get hurt.   Half of the first rounders flame out.  Some guys take too long to develop and prosper somewhere else.    I like what JD did this draft, but no one will know how well he did for another 2 years at least.

When the Redskins drafted RG 3, people assumed he'd be a lock, especially after his rookie year.  Turns out the 4th rounder, Kurt Cousins, has had the far superior career.

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23 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think when people start counting starters acquired as a good draft, my eyes glaze over.  Did we get Victor Hobson, Chris Baker and two other guys like that?  If so, big ******* deal.  There is a reason we talk about difference makers.  They make a difference.  Just getting starters is not enough.  You need a guy or two every couple of years that is more than that.

Case in point:  Zuninga is currently listed on most depth charts as a "starter".

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37 minutes ago, Alka said:

Exactly my point.  It seems that the Jets really did get 4 starters this year.

I mean, the QB is a lock; Vera Tucker is a lock, and our second round wide receiver seems to be a lock for many, many snaps, whether he is marked down as the starter or not.  Same thing with Michael Carter, our new running back.  

If (2) two of the other 6 draft picks pan out to contribute significant time on the field, then our draft is a grand slam. 

 

well yes, the jets seem to have done pretty well this draft.  but don't forget they had an extra first round pick (and enough middle round picks to move up) and then they were picking at the beginning of each round.  also, i believe the average nfl career is closer to 4 seasons.  i don't the starters are probably higher.  the low career number is because players get injured or just play themslelves out of the game or just aren't very good to begin with.

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17 minutes ago, Alka said:

Getting a starter from the draft means that they are better than the player they are replacing, in theory.   Getting better is where I want the Jets to go.  

It seems to me that the Jets may have gotten at least 3 difference makers with the first 3 picks, and that is exciting.  

Finding starters for a 2-14 team is not that difficult.  Especially one that traded away their starting QB and had departurues./trades of WR, 2 OLB, DE, 2 or 3 ILB, 2 RB, etc.  I guess that having a 7-10 starter means they are a bit better than the Chris Baker, Victor Hobson, Erik Coleman level guys I think of when I hear "We drafted starters!"  To start for 7 years you have to be a legit 2nd contract guy.  Not somebody that just plays the position okay.  Otherwise they wouldn't get that 2nd contract and start for another 3+ years. 

This is remarkably premature, even for this place.  You are already crowning the first 3 picks as difference makers?  WIlson is as questionable as Darnold was and IMO the main reasons they moved on were contract related.   Vera-Tucker is a guard.  Name the guards that are difference makers in the NFL.  In NFL history.  Moore is 5'9"  You are already assigning him to Steve Smith status?  IMO, it is more likely that one of the S/LB hybrids becomes a difference maker than AVT or Moore and there is a pretty good chance they will all be out of the league in 3 years.

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37 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think when people start counting starters acquired as a good draft, my eyes glaze over.  Did we get Victor Hobson, Chris Baker and two other guys like that?  If so, big ******* deal.  There is a reason we talk about difference makers.  They make a difference.  Just getting starters is not enough.  You need a guy or two every couple of years that is more than that.

You left out the part where he said "for 7-10 years". Hobson, Baker, Zuniga, etc don't fit that criteria. 

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based on the Jets recent drafting, if they make it out of their 1st training camp and are not out of the league in about 2 years then its a step up

 

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5 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

You left out the part where he said "for 7-10 years". Hobson, Baker, Zuniga, etc don't fit that criteria. 

That's true.  I addressed that in my follow up.  So much of that is position and contract dependent.  Baker started for 5 years.   Anthony Becht started for 9 years.  Kyle Brady 13.  Brian Winters is a 7 year starter that is still in the league.  Do we want 4 of those?  If the QB hits we are golden.  If he bombs having 4 David Harris isn't making us win many more games.

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34 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

This is remarkably premature, even for this place.  You are already crowning the first 3 picks as difference makers?  WIlson is as questionable as Darnold was and IMO the main reasons they moved on were contract related.   Vera-Tucker is a guard.  Name the guards that are difference makers in the NFL.  In NFL history.  Moore is 5'9"  You are already assigning him to Steve Smith status?  IMO, it is more likely that one of the S/LB hybrids becomes a difference maker than AVT or Moore and there is a pretty good chance they will all be out of the league in 3 years.

Yep, all of this.

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2 hours ago, Alka said:

Exactly my point.  It seems that the Jets really did get 4 starters this year.

I mean, the QB is a lock; Vera Tucker is a lock, and our second round wide receiver seems to be a lock for many, many snaps, whether he is marked down as the starter or not.  Same thing with Michael Carter, our new running back.  

If (2) two of the other 6 draft picks pan out to contribute significant time on the field, then our draft is a grand slam. 

 

This is the reason why I'm optimistic.  Yes Jets do appear to have 4 starters.  What Jets get from the defensive picks...if any become starters...is a bonus.  Of course we don't know how effective they're going to be.  Average...above average...pro bowlers.   It's definitely a draft that fills needs.  IMO...so did FA additions.

Having an additional 11 picks in 2022 draft adds to optimism.  With two picks each in rounds 1-2.  Then there's  another FA-trade process.   Jets have put themselves in a good position to be a playoff team in 2022.  

There has never been such an authentic enthusiastic collaboration between GM-FO  with  HC-CS,  then Jets have right now.  This is how it should be if you want to create a winning program.  This JD-Saleh ERA is off to a good start.  This Jets setup...their planning and thinking...bodes well for the future.  For Jets getting back consistently into the playoffs...chasing a Lombardi Trophy.   

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2 hours ago, Alka said:

I want to expand on my title.  If those 4 starters stayed relatively healthy for their careers, then how would you feel?

For me, the Jets seem to have 4 solid starters from this years draft.  One thing that I believe is overlooked, is that "likelihood of injury" should be factored into the analysis on whether a pick is a good one or not.  

For instance, if Vera Tucker is a guy who has no real history of serious injuries, and a guy who projects almost as good as him has the history of injury, then the difference in picking the two is not as close as their potential abilities.  So, if Tucker is a 10 year starter with no major injury, and the other guy almost as good is continuously injured, then the pick of Tucker would be theoretically much higher than the one with a propensity of getting injured.

This year, the Jets got 4 guys who project to be solid starters.  The only question I have is our new QB in terms of future injury, but if the Jets felt that he was not a major concern, then it is a home run.  Also, the Jets have a obligation to protect him with solid offensive linemen, and another reason to guarantee yourself the quality of a Vera Tucker at #14. If Wilson gets injured as a result of poor line play, then I blame the Jets organization for not protecting him, and not the fact that Wilson may be prone to injury.

If the Jets can get 4 solid starters every year for 5 years, in effect they turn over their entire roster to successful organization building through the draft.  When has the Jets gotten 4 quality starters from the draft in past years?  Not too often, I promise you that!

Trading up for Vera Tucker is stupid to argue, because as many "experts" have said, he is the safest pick that the Jets could have made at that position. Guaranteeing one of those 4 starters for the future makes the argument of if the Jets gave up too much null and void.

Remember Milliner, the top 10 draft pick of the Jets?  He had a history of injury, and although he was enormously talented, was an awful pick when the Jets picked him due to injury concerns.  

Injury is a big part of the game, and for whatever reason, the Jets are one of the worst teams at keeping their players healthy.

I understand that you can not predict injuries, but you CAN predict injuries if the player has a history of injuries in the past.  This is also why I believe that the linebacker Nadissijjan or whatever his name is fell to us when he did in the 6th round.  He was a first round talent if you looked at the predictions 1 year ago.

TL:DR

Let's wait a game before we announce 4 starters to stay here 7-10 years each. 

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4 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think when people start counting starters acquired as a good draft, my eyes glaze over.  Did we get Victor Hobson, Chris Baker and two other guys like that?  If so, big ******* deal.  There is a reason we talk about difference makers.  They make a difference.  Just getting starters is not enough.  You need a guy or two every couple of years that is more than that.

Bingo. 

I like Victor Hobson. He has 5 years out of 5 as a starter since getting drafted. For round 3, that's well above the average number.

However if the Jets had 2 excellent starters at his position that 5 would have been 0. 

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2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

If I could guarantee that four guys from the 2020 class would turn out to be very good and have long careers I’d easily pick Becton, Mims, Zuniga, and Hall.

Would like to have Morgan after Hall as trade capital. 

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