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With 4 picks within the first two rounds of 2022; JD can attack Offense once again (x3): In order to complete an Offensive Juggernaut.


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2 hours ago, jgb said:

No, we really don't. What we need is a true #1 QB.

I’m assuming that’s Zach but even if he’s not we def aren’t drafting one next year. 

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8 minutes ago, Mo Lew said:

I’m assuming that’s Zach but even if he’s not we def aren’t drafting one next year. 

I assume nothing of the sort but I sure do hope so!

I also believe you should draft a QB (or trade for/bring in a high upside vet like Trubisky) every year until you find one. Not saying necessarily round 1 every year. 

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On 5/12/2021 at 8:07 AM, derp said:

Edge is going to be on the list of possibilities early even if the team has two good ones, let alone the potential one good one with Lawson. I think it’s straightforward to argue it’s the second most important position in the sport, this defensive scheme is built around getting pressure with the front four, and Douglas clearly believes in building in the trenches.

I know that many people think edge is hugely important but I think they are in general massively overrated. Really really good ones are rare, and every so often there is a game where edge rushers dominate, but if you look throughout history it will show there is really not a strong attachment rate between elite pass rushing and success and winning Super Bowls. I did an analysis that I posted a while here that suggested to win a SB you essentially need a Top 10 offense, but in terms of pass rush the only correlation you could really make is that as a team you are not real successfull with a bottom tier pass rush.

I do not disagree though that we won't take one high if he is there.

I don't see us going early for corner as the early corners are usually man corners and that is very minimized in our defense. OL TE MLB seem to be likely biggest needs in next years draft. Who knows where we pick though.

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11 hours ago, jgb said:

I assume nothing of the sort but I sure do hope so!

I also believe you should draft a QB (or trade for/bring in a high upside vet like Trubisky) every year until you find one. Not saying necessarily round 1 every year. 

Can’t disagree. 

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14 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I know that many people think edge is hugely important but I think they are in general massively overrated. Really really good ones are rare, and every so often there is a game where edge rushers dominate, but if you look throughout history it will show there is really not a strong attachment rate between elite pass rushing and success and winning Super Bowls. I did an analysis that I posted a while here that suggested to win a SB you essentially need a Top 10 offense, but in terms of pass rush the only correlation you could really make is that as a team you are not real successfull with a bottom tier pass rush.

I do not disagree though that we won't take one high if he is there.

I don't see us going early for corner as the early corners are usually man corners and that is very minimized in our defense. OL TE MLB seem to be likely biggest needs in next years draft. Who knows where we pick though.

I'd argue it's hard to correlate pass rush statistics with quality of play at the position since the ability to rush the passer is very game flow dependent and there are a ton of confounding variables there.

It's also pretty straightforward to make the point that interior disruption is king over edge disruption but when you're also making the really good ones are rare argument for edge rushers, the rarity of good interior rushers is far more pronounced. 

Did you find anything else that was correlated? I can't tell if that indicates that edge rushers are overrated or nothing more than that, with the small sample size of Super Bowl winners and a salary cap environment in the NFL, there are a lot of ways to skin a cat. If what you've got is a top 10 offense there's room for pretty much anything to be overrated, right?

I don't think you *need* a good pass rusher to win a Super Bowl, but on the same token it's pretty universally accepted that quarterback is the most important position in the sport and we've seen teams win Super Bowls without elite quarterbacks too. Ultimately a lot of games are won and lost up front, disrupting quarterbacks is key, and edge rushers are the most common part of that.

Totally agree regarding corner being overrated as a need. I imagine linebacker gets punted to day two. Tight end is a huge one.

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4 hours ago, derp said:

I'd argue it's hard to correlate pass rush statistics with quality of play at the position since the ability to rush the passer is very game flow dependent and there are a ton of confounding variables there.

It's also pretty straightforward to make the point that interior disruption is king over edge disruption but when you're also making the really good ones are rare argument for edge rushers, the rarity of good interior rushers is far more pronounced. 

Did you find anything else that was correlated? I can't tell if that indicates that edge rushers are overrated or nothing more than that, with the small sample size of Super Bowl winners and a salary cap environment in the NFL, there are a lot of ways to skin a cat. If what you've got is a top 10 offense there's room for pretty much anything to be overrated, right?

I don't think you *need* a good pass rusher to win a Super Bowl, but on the same token it's pretty universally accepted that quarterback is the most important position in the sport and we've seen teams win Super Bowls without elite quarterbacks too. Ultimately a lot of games are won and lost up front, disrupting quarterbacks is key, and edge rushers are the most common part of that.

Totally agree regarding corner being overrated as a need. I imagine linebacker gets punted to day two. Tight end is a huge one.

I am trying to find an advanced stat that discusses it. Just seems to me that a sack is not quite a turnover because not all sacks end a drive, but some do lead to direct turnovers. I believe I also looked at overall pressures as opposed to just sack numbers. If you think about it, a PD on 3rd down is extremely close the same value as a sack but no one discusses that. I am not saying sacks and especially pressures are not important I just feel that they are not quite as game changing as people think. They certainly can be -EDGE pressure clearly won the recent Denver SB, I am just not that convinced that going from a decent to elite EDGE has the impact people think it does. Elite EDGES are unicorns and paid as such, but are they really worth second and third contract money?

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On 5/8/2021 at 1:02 PM, doitny said:

exactly. we cant tie up all our money in the OL. 

and like you said we need to think about paying these guys in 4-5 years. 

in 2009-20019 we did it with 2 1st rds picks ( Mangold and Brick ) 2 other teams 1st rd picks ( Woody and Faneca ) and a UDFA in Moore. Slausen ( 6th rd ) replaced Faneca in 2010.

Mangold and Brick were making the big money. Faneca and Woody were at the end of there careers. i doubt they were costing us too much.

if people here think that Wilson needs a whole offense of 1st rd picks, or 3 drafts top loaded with offense, then Wilson sucks. he will be no better than Sanchez without the great defense to bail him out.

I’m pretty sure Faneca was (then) the highest-paid guard in NFL history & Woody was making at worst top-10 money for RTs. Also while he was good bang for the buck, Moore wasn’t free either.

Replacing Faneca with Slauson - who kinda sucked (at least in pass blocking) his first year starting - didn’t destroy the OL. Then again Faneca wasn’t much of a pass blocker on the Jets either.

Your last paragraph is the biggest takeaway. Nobody wants to accept that just maybe we drafted the wrong QBs; there always have to be other reasons why they failed. For some reason, many find it comforting to blame 10 other people, whether in the huddle or coaching, instead of the QB himself. You’d think there was some long history of all these failed Jets QBs tearing the league a new one as soon as they went elsewhere.

Yes we hope the line improves, the receivers improve (and stay on the field) and the coaching improves. But if Wilson is as bad as our past QBs then all those others can do is conceal it more effectively. 

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On 5/19/2021 at 2:54 PM, johnnysd said:

I am trying to find an advanced stat that discusses it. Just seems to me that a sack is not quite a turnover because not all sacks end a drive, but some do lead to direct turnovers. I believe I also looked at overall pressures as opposed to just sack numbers. If you think about it, a PD on 3rd down is extremely close the same value as a sack but no one discusses that. I am not saying sacks and especially pressures are not important I just feel that they are not quite as game changing as people think. They certainly can be -EDGE pressure clearly won the recent Denver SB, I am just not that convinced that going from a decent to elite EDGE has the impact people think it does. Elite EDGES are unicorns and paid as such, but are they really worth second and third contract money?

I mean again, interior disruption is king over edge. You could argue that DB play is comparably important to defensive line play - guys like Rex and Bowles took more of that kind of approach. My guy can cover your guy and that enables me to bring more guys than you can block. The rules really favor receivers right now.

I think pass rush is more impactful than back seven play for a few reasons. While you do have coverage sacks from time to time, that’s not one player making an impact - requires everyone doing their job. When the Jets had Revis and bad #2 corner play teams just picked on the other guy. One pass rusher getting to the QB changes the play. Maybe it’s a yardage loss or turnover but even just forcing an earlier or bad throw is positive and helps the DB’s. I think it’s just easier for that one guy to change plays. And if he ends up being doubled the numbers advantage gets even more favorable for the defense.

Especially as the league becomes more passing oriented, the absolute best way to disrupt passing games is by changing the quarterback’s schedule with pass rush and ideally hitting him. 

Stats in football are tough because it’s so situation based. Obviously the Bucs had a great pass rush last season. The Chiefs went from Dee Ford to Frank Clark - maybe not a completely elite unit but they get leads on teams and then let their pass rushers get after it. Chris Jones is important for them too. Those great Seahawks defenses got home with their front four, the Giants team that upset the undefeated Pats did the same. Broncos team that Manning won his last Super Bowl with had Von Miller. It’s definitely not every team, multiple ways to skin a cat for sure, but I still think pass rush is a very viable path towards being a Super Bowl caliber team. Especially when you can get home with four guys. Has to make defending so much easier when you’ve got numbers in your favor - if five can’t block four it leaves the defense with seven guys to cover five.

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On 5/9/2021 at 12:18 PM, Jets723 said:

.  We still need a bigtime CB.  

Do we? "Big time" CBs are generally man guys. We will run almost no man coverage this year. Even the best "zone only" CBs go in 3rd round and lower. I am not saying we won't pick a RD1 CB if BPA but I don't think we will search them out. Just not really how the defense goes. High picks are likely to be on EDGE and LB. We need TE desperately I think so I see us picking 1 in first couple rounds. 

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11 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Do we? "Big time" CBs are generally man guys. We will run almost no man coverage this year. Even the best "zone only" CBs go in 3rd round and lower. I am not saying we won't pick a RD1 CB if BPA but I don't think we will search them out. Just not really how the defense goes. High picks are likely to be on EDGE and LB. We need TE desperately I think so I see us picking 1 in first couple rounds. 

I’m fine with that. I agree edge is a big need as well.  But if we go corner with a high pick I wouldn’t be surprised or upset 

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If we get Moses for the RT spot that can immediately boost our options in early round 1. 
 

I imagine it will be Edge rusher and really can’t see it being anything else for that first pick. 
 

beyond that I think needs will be TE, LB, IOL, CB and to a lesser extent WR. How this season plays out will tell us which is needed more
 

hoping we can hit on a premier rusher. 

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We need an edge to compliment Lawson. Can’t pay big money again for a FA edge. JD will trade up if need be, like he did with AVT, to get the edge he wants.
Round 1 - Edge + (#1 + 3rd rounder to trade up) & #2 TE 

Round 2 - #1 LB , #2 traded for 2#3’s - 1 in 2022 & 1 in 2023. 

Round 3 - #1 used to trade up in round 1, #2 received from trade back of 2nd rounder - OL 

Round 4 - WR 

Round 5 - #1 OL, #2 edge

Round 6 - 3 picks do as you’d like

recap in order - 1) edge, TE, 2) LB, 3) OL, 4)WR, 5) OL, edge 6) 3 picks

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On 5/8/2021 at 9:22 AM, Lith said:

Based on today's roster, the 4 spots that I would hope to address with these picks are TE, OL, Edge and LB. 

Would like to see upgrades to OL.  Mcgovern Fant and Van Roten all have 2 years left on contract and are easily released after this season with minimal cap impact.  Draft another young stud on the OL and hopefully have 3 young guys to build arouond.

Edge.  Vinny Curry is on one year deal.  Need a young pass rusher on opposite side of Lawson.  This will probably be number one need heading into next season.

LB is likely to be in the equation as well.  Jarrad Davis on one year deal.  We will know a lot more about Mosley and his ability to play Mike in a 4-3.  We have a couple of young guys competing for Will (Nasirildeen, Sherwood & Cashman).  LB will likely be a position we will look to upgrade.

We are still in desperate need of TE, especially with Herndon in last year of his contract.  Even if Yeboah makes the team and looks good, TE will likely be a need.  If TE can be addressed in FA, maybe an RB to pair with Carter.

Still a lot of positions that need to be upgraded or soon to be replaced. C, RT, G, CB, S, LB. Next year this team will AGAIN look very different as JD continues his purge. Just look at the new additions he’s made in just the last year. I’d hope he really concentrates on edge and MLB. When is Mosley’s contract up? He’s gone as soon as it’s possible. Not really to concerned anymore with TE or RB. I think we have more urgent needs. 4 picks in round 1&2: Edge, OL, LB, CB

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