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Division Rivals Draft Analysis - The Fish


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I think the Fish felt they were going to get pitts or chase.  Lots of disagreement about the next WR on the board but I like Devonta smith better than Waddle.   Phillips is very very iffy.  He reeeks of a guy that came back to football to get paid and will be gone in like 5 years, especially if he gets hurt.

Eichenburg was a good pick as was long.

I was very worried what the phins would get in this draft but am much less worried after the fact.

 

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Phillips >>> Paye and it’s not even close. Pass rushers rush the passer. It’s not hard to figure out. Paye for all of his ability doesn’t rush the passer. If the medical checked out on Phillips then he was the best defensive player in the draft. 

Waddle... meh. Better than Ruggs for sure but he’s injury prone and a big question mark.

Jevon Holland... please. Opt out with tweener ability who isn’t good at any of his tweener abilities. Doesn’t have a position in any NFL defense.

 

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1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

Phillips >>> Paye and it’s not even close. Pass rushers rush the passer. It’s not hard to figure out. Paye for all of his ability doesn’t rush the passer. If the medical checked out on Phillips then he was the best defensive player in the draft. 

Waddle... meh. Better than Ruggs for sure but he’s injury prone and a big question mark.

Jevon Holland... please. Opt out with tweener ability who isn’t good at any of his tweener abilities. Doesn’t have a position in any NFL defense.

 

Philips is the best pass rush prospect in this draft, but I wanted no part of him to the Jets.  The medical history is scary -- he was medically retired from UCLA due to the concussions.  Was cleard by UM and played his way back to a top 15 talent.  But with the concussion history he is one hit away from a very short NFL career.  I was not upset when the Phins took him.

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25 minutes ago, clayton163v said:

At #6 the Fish took WR Jaylen Waddle.  While he is a fine prospect and is comparable to the other smaller receivers available this year (Moore and Moore), most scouts gave him a higher grade than the Moores.  I did not.  And this is why.  Waddle suffers from Henry Ruggs disease.  You see, last year Ruggs was rated right there will Jerry Jeudy.  And like Waddle, both Ruggs and Jeudy played for Alabama.  This led many observers, including me, to question which receiver was getting double-covered and which was getting the benefit of that double coverage.  Well, last season made it obvious that Jeudy was the stud and Ruggs a mere parasite.  This brings me back to Waddle.  Waddle played alongside Devonta Smith at Alabama.  We do not know which was the straw that stirs the drink and which was the - uh - slice of lemon.  Do not get me wrong, Waddle is a fine prospect.  But at 5' 10 180 lbs, he must prove he can play outside or he was overdrafted.  Worse, he may prove to be as limited in his route tree as appears to be the case with Ruggs.  We can only hope.  Personally - given the cost - I would much rather have Elijah Moore.  In any event, Waddle cost the Fish TWO first round picks.  HOORAY.

I totally agree.  I would take Waddle over E. Moore, but not by much at all.  Very, very close in terms of grading IMO and similar sized players.  And, I'd take your point about not knowing who on Alabama is getting double-covered or having a Safety roll over towards him (Smith or Waddle) a step further.  Defenses were terrified of Najee Harris behind a pretty good OLine with Landon Dickerson, Leatherwood, etc.  There were times, especially when Alabama was winning and starting to emphasize the run that defenses began to load the box a bit.  That made for some serious feasting by Mac Jones, Waddle and Devonta Smith down the field.

Again, I like Waddle but Miami paid a lot.  If the choice is Waddle at #6 or Elijah Moore at #34, I'd guess that the vast majority of NFL Execs would rather have Moore at #34.  Trading up from #12 to #6 was playing fast and loose with extra picks.  It was as if Miami had so many extra picks from their trades that they got a little sloppy, treating the extra picks like a stimulus check. lol

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10 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I think the Fish felt they were going to get pitts or chase.  Lots of disagreement about the next WR on the board but I like Devonta smith better than Waddle.   Phillips is very very iffy.  He reeeks of a guy that came back to football to get paid and will be gone in like 5 years, especially if he gets hurt.

Eichenburg was a good pick as was long.

I was very worried what the phins would get in this draft but am much less worried after the fact.

 

Good post. The Fins seemed to have learned nothing from the Jets' recent history of drafting guys with injury concerns in the first couple of rounds. That's like buying highly speculative stock with money you need to pay the mortgage. Those high picks should be as lock down safe as possible. I have a feeling the Fins will regret both, but then they'll be regretting Tua even more as time goes on.

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I will respectfully disagree.  I think they took the 2 biggest game changers in the 1st round on both sides of the ball.  Waddle has Hill like qualities and Phillips could be a 10+ sack guy a year.  To then follow it up with IMO the best safety prospect in the draft, again, another game changer ball hawk type (9 picks in college) and then follow it up with a potential franchise RT and TE. 

I think the Dolphins had one of the best drafts in the entire league.  Especially when you considered how they fit on the roster.  They are scary talented in Miami these days.  They have talent all over the field. 

 

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The Fins are loaded and will be loaded for years.  They have so much draft capital they can approach the draft differently than we can.

They have a question mark at QB.  Unless Zach is much better than Tua we are going to be looking up at them for years.  The Fins are in position to make the playoffs for years with mediocre QB play.  We aren't.

They had a very solid draft.  They added players who will break down defenses and offenses.  It wouldn't shock me if they have a bad start they make a huge move to get Rodgers or Watson.  They have the capital to do it.  

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12 hours ago, clayton163v said:

As a long time Jet fan, I obviously hate the Fins.  Like really hate them.  I have never forgiven them for watering the field and causing the Mud Bowl (something many of the younger fans recall as something that happened around the time of the McKinely assassination).  So forgive me if this review contains a little snark.  

The Fins first move was to trade back from #3 to #12 for a 3d this year and 1st round picks in 2022 and 2023.  Which was a smart move.  Naturally, they immediately messed (I would use a different word but Maxman would complain) it up by coughing up their own 1st round pick next season to move to #6.  This was truly idiotic.  The #12 pick was going to yield one of the nine elite non-quarterbacks available this year, the #6 was no different.  Moreover, should they have a poor year - please Lord - that pick is not theirs.  Much to risk to get the same value.  

At #6 the Fish took WR Jaylen Waddle.  While he is a fine prospect and is comparable to the other smaller receivers available this year (Moore and Moore), most scouts gave him a higher grade than the Moores.  I did not.  And this is why.  Waddle suffers from Henry Ruggs disease.  You see, last year Ruggs was rated right there will Jerry Jeudy.  And like Waddle, both Ruggs and Jeudy played for Alabama.  This led many observers, including me, to question which receiver was getting double-covered and which was getting the benefit of that double coverage.  Well, last season made it obvious that Jeudy was the stud and Ruggs a mere parasite.  This brings me back to Waddle.  Waddle played alongside Devonta Smith at Alabama.  We do not know which was the straw that stirs the drink and which was the - uh - slice of lemon.  Do not get me wrong, Waddle is a fine prospect.  But at 5' 10 180 lbs, he must prove he can play outside or he was overdrafted.  Worse, he may prove to be as limited in his route tree as appears to be the case with Ruggs.  We can only hope.  Personally - given the cost - I would much rather have Elijah Moore.  In any event, Waddle cost the Fish TWO first round picks.  HOORAY.

At #18 the Fish took DE Jaelan Phillips.  They had their choice of the four top defensive ends and they took Phillips.  While many consider him to be the best pass rusher of the four, I would have taken Kwity Paye and run like a thief in the night.  Not only is Paye a solid run defender, but Phillips has a scary injury history.  Both concussions and a wrist that was rebuilt after a serious car accident.  It took multiple surgeries to rebuild it.  He also gets flagged for losing his cool on the field.   Do not get me wrong, Phillips is a dangerous man.  But I am glad the Fish took him instead of Paye.  Let's run right at him.

At #36 the Fish took S Javon Holland.  Drat, drat, and double drat.  As I wrote before the draft:

"Javon Holland is a free safety who is 6' 1" 200 lbs, runs 4.47 and carries a 2d round grade.  He is a bit rich for us but is an excellent fit for our multiple zone scheme.  He is so versatile he has lined up at Corner, Safety and Nickel.   Ourlads said "he is at his best as a zone defender" and will fit "best in a zone heavy scheme".  He is an outstanding kick returner."  He will help the Fish in many different ways and the pick is hard to criticize. 

At #42 the Fish took OT/G Liam Eichenberg.  As I wrote before the draft:

"Liam Eichenberg carries a 2d round grade and is ranked #51st overall.  Unlike Radunz and Brown, he is ready right now.  He is an inside out prospect who can play guard if needed.  Ourlads says "his techniques are repeatable and has good brute strength in his hands and base".  They offer praise that "his lower half has obviously spent a great deal of time in the weight room".  He is more of a finished product than Radunz or Brown but does not have their elite upside.  He would start for us on day one at right tackle or either guard spot. "

The word is the Fish intend to move last year's #2 Hunt to Guard.  Eichenberg will start at right tackle.  Last year's #1 - Jackson - will start at Left tackle and Solomon Kindley - a stud - will start at the other guard spot.  That is a powerful front four for their gap scheme.  It is hard to criticize this pick, I really liked Eichenberg.  He has a very high floor.  

At #81 the Fish took TE Hunter Long.  He is a tall and long athletic pass catching tight end - 6' 5" 250.  His blocking needs work and he is not ready to play inline as his strength is not there.  He carried a 4th round grade and was a bit overdrafted.  There was plenty of good value on the board when they took him too.  Not what I would have done.  Draft over draft, you can always find a guy like this in the 3d.  There were leftover second banana WRs (Brown and Collins) among others.  An odd choice.  May he prove to be a fiasco.

At #237 (7th) the Fish took OT Larnell Coleman.  Some on the board liked him.  Ourlads did not give him a draftable grade.  May he prove to be a turnstyle.

At #244 the Fish took Gerrid Doaks.  6' 230, he is a power back and he fits the Fish gap blocking scheme.  He was drafted where he was rated. 

Overall, the Fish paid too much for Waddle.  Took a risk on Phillips with a mid-1st round with a safer guy on the board.  Got lucky with a top free safety and a tough right tackle.  Overdrafted a tight end and then took flyers on a couple of guys.  

I am certain that I could have done better since I would have never traded back up to #6 much less coughed up my own 1st (never a good idea).  I liked a few of their draft picks until they were drafted by the Fish. 

PS - When the Fish took Waddle, the Lions draft room broke into a Conga line and took Sewell.  Check out the video:

 

Never a good sign.  

 

 

 

Lions are morons. Fields was sitting there and should have been the pick. They could have gotten rid of Goff as well for picks. Only the lions are worse than Jets USED to be when it comes to NFL draft. 

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54 minutes ago, Jethead said:

Fortunately the have Tua at QB. Not a fan. I think  Buffalo is still the more formidable adversary. 

With the Dolphins having Tua and the pats having a washed up Newton and mac jones, its very conceivable that the Jets have the 2nd best qb in the division.

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1 hour ago, Biggs said:

The Fins are loaded and will be loaded for years.  They have so much draft capital they can approach the draft differently than we can.

They have a question mark at QB.  Unless Zach is much better than Tua we are going to be looking up at them for years.  The Fins are in position to make the playoffs for years with mediocre QB play.  We aren't.

They had a very solid draft.  They added players who will break down defenses and offenses.  It wouldn't shock me if they have a bad start they make a huge move to get Rodgers or Watson.  They have the capital to do it.  

Not so much anymore. Should have stayed at #12.

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12 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Phillips >>> Paye and it’s not even close. Pass rushers rush the passer. It’s not hard to figure out. Paye for all of his ability doesn’t rush the passer. If the medical checked out on Phillips then he was the best defensive player in the draft. 

Waddle... meh. Better than Ruggs for sure but he’s injury prone and a big question mark.

Jevon Holland... please. Opt out with tweener ability who isn’t good at any of his tweener abilities. Doesn’t have a position in any NFL defense.

 

We disagree on big time on Waddle/Holland which is whatevs but I did get a kick out of the last comment, considering JD literally drafted a handful of position-less prospects this year.

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11 hours ago, Lith said:

Philips is the best pass rush prospect in this draft, but I wanted no part of him to the Jets.  The medical history is scary -- he was medically retired from UCLA due to the concussions.  Was cleard by UM and played his way back to a top 15 talent.  But with the concussion history he is one hit away from a very short NFL career.  I was not upset when the Phins took him.

His agent will most certainly go the”Guaranteed for Injury “ route in contract negotiations. His baseline numbers will be very important 

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I love Waddle and he stood out to me last year even when I was looking at Jeudy and Ruggs’ highlights. His speed is next level and he has the skills to go with it. Still think it was ridiculous for him to go over Smith who I think was the best WR in the draft but time will tell.

If Phillips stays healthy then he’s the best defensive player in the draft. Huge risk but his talent is unquestionable. I really, really hate that they ended up with him. He was the one defensive guy I wouldn’t have minded the Jets taking.

Eichenberg was a nice pickup where they got him too, smart to go there in the deep draft class. 

Incredible draft for them. As good if not better than ours, but I really hope Devonta Smith makes them regret that decision for a long time.

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The Dolphins have built a very good roster, not unlike the way JD is building ours.  They're better than us in 21, but come 22 it will depend on who the better quarterback is.  

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3 hours ago, JiFapono said:

I will respectfully disagree.  I think they took the 2 biggest game changers in the 1st round on both sides of the ball.  Waddle has Hill like qualities and Phillips could be a 10+ sack guy a year.  To then follow it up with IMO the best safety prospect in the draft, again, another game changer ball hawk type (9 picks in college) and then follow it up with a potential franchise RT and TE. 

I think the Dolphins had one of the best drafts in the entire league.  Especially when you considered how they fit on the roster.  They are scary talented in Miami these days.  They have talent all over the field. 

 

They got two really good players.  Which is expected with two top 20 picks.  BUt the way I am looking at it more about what I thought they could do but didn't.  I am not a believer in Tua, and had they stayed at 3, they could have taken Fields.  At 6, I thought they were going to get Pitts.  Once Pitts came off the board, you knew they were getting Chase, Waddle or Smith.  They chose Waddle. 

Instead of giving up a 1 next season to go from 12 to 6, they could have kept their 1 and made a small move from 12 to 10 and still gotten one of the three WRs.  And had an extra 1 next year to package for Watson (if his legal troubles are somehow addressed.)

They came away with two really good players, but neither are named Fields or Pitts, so I am okay with what they did.

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2 hours ago, JiFapono said:

We disagree on big time on Waddle/Holland which is whatevs but I did get a kick out of the last comment, considering JD literally drafted a handful of position-less prospects this year.

They have transferable traits and will settle into LBs with good skill sets. I really think Holland has either a bad slot CB or a bad safety. Either way I really don’t like Holland. 

I don’t dislike Waddle, I feel he’s a bit overrated as an all-around WR prospect. Also he’s not Pitts.

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13 hours ago, Lith said:

Philips is the best pass rush prospect in this draft, but I wanted no part of him to the Jets.  The medical history is scary -- he was medically retired from UCLA due to the concussions.  Was cleard by UM and played his way back to a top 15 talent.  But with the concussion history he is one hit away from a very short NFL career.  I was not upset when the Phins took him.

Always a concern but my objection is more the idea that Paye is better. If Phillips never gets out his rookie deal but is super good for 3 seasons that’s a window to find his replacement.

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18 minutes ago, Lith said:

They got two really good players.  Which is expected with two top 20 picks.  BUt the way I am looking at it more about what I thought they could do but didn't.  I am not a believer in Tua, and had they stayed at 3, they could have taken Fields.  At 6, I thought they were going to get Pitts.  Once Pitts came off the board, you knew they were getting Chase, Waddle or Smith.  They chose Waddle. 

Instead of giving up a 1 next season to go from 12 to 6, they could have kept their 1 and made a small move from 12 to 10 and still gotten one of the three WRs.  And had an extra 1 next year to package for Watson (if his legal troubles are somehow addressed.)

They came away with two really good players, but neither are named Fields or Pitts, so I am okay with what they did.

Agree, and at 34 we got a receiver with just as much potential as Waddle.

So far, Phish have not optimized their spending whether on FA's or draft picks. Hope they keep it up.

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I fully admit that I’m a Jets homer, but I can’t help but view Miami’s roster as vastly overrated.  Sure, they have good “depth”, but besides Waddle - who could be the next Ted Ginn - who on their offense is scaring anybody?  Mike Geisiki?  They had zero playmakers last year and for a year reason just gave up two first rounders for Waddle (and my hunch is they thought Chase or Pitts would be there).  And let’s not forget that it’s entirely likely that their GM whiffed on ALL three 2020 first rounders.  

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Waddle is the most explosive player in the draft. He's a big time weapon. My hope is basically that Tua is limited and can't push him down the field but he's definitely going to be a problem and someone you want to game plan for. Interesting note that Waddle flat out stated he preferred playing with Mac to Tua -- hopefully the chemistry isn't great.

If Phillips stays healthy he's the best pass rusher in the draft (admittedly a weak draft for pass rushers.) A guy who medically retired for concussions is terrifying though. Hopefully he flakes on them after getting paid -- there's no doubt he's a high upside gamble.

Holland should be a plug and play starter. Not sure if he's a difference maker though.

Eichenberg is similar -- plug and play starter. Will probably be a solid RT for them.

I think Hunter Long is a JAG TE.

TLDR; I think the first two picks have tremendous upside but there's some risk, particularly with Phillips. I think it was a good draft but I'm not sure it was the home run some made it out to be, especially given the 1st rounder Miami gave to move up for Waddle. They likley got four starters with two of them being potential Pro Bowlers, so it's hard not to give them strong marks overall.

Miami has really built the blueprint for a 2-3 year rebuild.

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I hate Bill O Brien so much. If Miami wins a super bowl in the next 5 years, BOB needs to receive a ring for his contributions

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18 hours ago, clayton163v said:

As a long time Jet fan, I obviously hate the Fins.  Like really hate them.  I have never forgiven them for watering the field and causing the Mud Bowl (something many of the younger fans recall as something that happened around the time of the McKinely assassination).  So forgive me if this review contains a little snark.  

The Fins first move was to trade back from #3 to #12 for a 3d this year and 1st round picks in 2022 and 2023.  Which was a smart move.  Naturally, they immediately messed (I would use a different word but Maxman would complain) it up by coughing up their own 1st round pick next season to move to #6.  This was truly idiotic.  The #12 pick was going to yield one of the nine elite non-quarterbacks available this year, the #6 was no different.  Moreover, should they have a poor year - please Lord - that pick is not theirs.  Much to risk to get the same value.  

At #6 the Fish took WR Jaylen Waddle.  While he is a fine prospect and is comparable to the other smaller receivers available this year (Moore and Moore), most scouts gave him a higher grade than the Moores.  I did not.  And this is why.  Waddle suffers from Henry Ruggs disease.  You see, last year Ruggs was rated right there will Jerry Jeudy.  And like Waddle, both Ruggs and Jeudy played for Alabama.  This led many observers, including me, to question which receiver was getting double-covered and which was getting the benefit of that double coverage.  Well, last season made it obvious that Jeudy was the stud and Ruggs a mere parasite.  This brings me back to Waddle.  Waddle played alongside Devonta Smith at Alabama.  We do not know which was the straw that stirs the drink and which was the - uh - slice of lemon.  Do not get me wrong, Waddle is a fine prospect.  But at 5' 10 180 lbs, he must prove he can play outside or he was overdrafted.  Worse, he may prove to be as limited in his route tree as appears to be the case with Ruggs.  We can only hope.  Personally - given the cost - I would much rather have Elijah Moore.  In any event, Waddle cost the Fish TWO first round picks.  HOORAY.

At #18 the Fish took DE Jaelan Phillips.  They had their choice of the four top defensive ends and they took Phillips.  While many consider him to be the best pass rusher of the four, I would have taken Kwity Paye and run like a thief in the night.  Not only is Paye a solid run defender, but Phillips has a scary injury history.  Both concussions and a wrist that was rebuilt after a serious car accident.  It took multiple surgeries to rebuild it.  He also gets flagged for losing his cool on the field.   Do not get me wrong, Phillips is a dangerous man.  But I am glad the Fish took him instead of Paye.  Let's run right at him.

At #36 the Fish took S Javon Holland.  Drat, drat, and double drat.  As I wrote before the draft:

"Javon Holland is a free safety who is 6' 1" 200 lbs, runs 4.47 and carries a 2d round grade.  He is a bit rich for us but is an excellent fit for our multiple zone scheme.  He is so versatile he has lined up at Corner, Safety and Nickel.   Ourlads said "he is at his best as a zone defender" and will fit "best in a zone heavy scheme".  He is an outstanding kick returner."  He will help the Fish in many different ways and the pick is hard to criticize. 

At #42 the Fish took OT/G Liam Eichenberg.  As I wrote before the draft:

"Liam Eichenberg carries a 2d round grade and is ranked #51st overall.  Unlike Radunz and Brown, he is ready right now.  He is an inside out prospect who can play guard if needed.  Ourlads says "his techniques are repeatable and has good brute strength in his hands and base".  They offer praise that "his lower half has obviously spent a great deal of time in the weight room".  He is more of a finished product than Radunz or Brown but does not have their elite upside.  He would start for us on day one at right tackle or either guard spot. "

The word is the Fish intend to move last year's #2 Hunt to Guard.  Eichenberg will start at right tackle.  Last year's #1 - Jackson - will start at Left tackle and Solomon Kindley - a stud - will start at the other guard spot.  That is a powerful front four for their gap scheme.  It is hard to criticize this pick, I really liked Eichenberg.  He has a very high floor.  

At #81 the Fish took TE Hunter Long.  He is a tall and long athletic pass catching tight end - 6' 5" 250.  His blocking needs work and he is not ready to play inline as his strength is not there.  He carried a 4th round grade and was a bit overdrafted.  There was plenty of good value on the board when they took him too.  Not what I would have done.  Draft over draft, you can always find a guy like this in the 3d.  There were leftover second banana WRs (Brown and Collins) among others.  An odd choice.  May he prove to be a fiasco.

At #237 (7th) the Fish took OT Larnell Coleman.  Some on the board liked him.  Ourlads did not give him a draftable grade.  May he prove to be a turnstyle.

At #244 the Fish took Gerrid Doaks.  6' 230, he is a power back and he fits the Fish gap blocking scheme.  He was drafted where he was rated. 

Overall, the Fish paid too much for Waddle.  Took a risk on Phillips with a mid-1st round with a safer guy on the board.  Got lucky with a top free safety and a tough right tackle.  Overdrafted a tight end and then took flyers on a couple of guys.  

I am certain that I could have done better since I would have never traded back up to #6 much less coughed up my own 1st (never a good idea).  I liked a few of their draft picks until they were drafted by the Fish. 

PS - When the Fish took Waddle, the Lions draft room broke into a Conga line and took Sewell.  Check out the video:

 

Never a good sign.  

 

 

 

diveson are inporit

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6 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

With the Dolphins having Tua and the pats having a washed up Newton and mac jones, its very conceivable that the Jets have the 2nd best qb in the division.

He's gonna have to fight Trubisky for that honor. Two men enter. One man leaves. 

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Trading up for Waddle was a terrible move. No one gives up a first round pick for a slot receiver. Smith is the better all round receiver. 

And they've lost a lot of their ammo to trade for someone like Watson next year. This draft will come back to haunt them. But if the net result is no Pitts or Chase in the division, then I'm all for it. 

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