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5 stats the New York Jets are very likely to improve in 2021


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 05/16/2021

 

Corey Davis (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

 

Here are five key statistical areas where the New York Jets have a great chance of improving over their massive struggles in 2020.

 

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37.2 net yards per punt (30th)

The Jets’ punting unit struggled in 2020, ranking 30th in net yards per punt (37.2) and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).

Both rookie punter Braden Mann and his coverage team played a part in the poor output. Mann ranked 29th out of 31 qualifiers in average punt distance (43.9 yards) and placed as PFF’s 20th-ranked punter (64.4 overall grade). The coverage team was brutal, allowing the sixth-most yards per punt return (11.7) even with Mann making three amazing touchdown-saving tackles.

There are reasons to be hopeful that the Jets are going to turn this weakness into a strength in 2021. Number one, Mann showed gradual improvement throughout his rookie season. From Weeks 8-17, Mann ranked fifth among qualified punters in average hang time per punt (4.46 seconds) and graded as the 11th-best punter at PFF (67.1 overall grade).

 
Secondly, the coverage team is poised to improve after the Jets added a bevy of speed and special teams talent to the backend of their roster.

Former Saints coverage star Justin Hardee is the main attraction. Hardee earned a 90.4 special teams grade at PFF in 2020, sixth-best out of 193 qualifiers. For his career, Hardee has a 6.6-to-1 ratio of tackles to missed tackles on special teams, more than double the 2020 NFL average (2.9-to-1).

Joe Douglas also added a good deal of athletic prospects in the draft who could make a positive impact in punt coverage. Michael Carter II (4.36 forty), Brandin Echols (4.36), Isaiah Dunn (4.38), and Jason Pinnock (4.49 at 204 pounds) all bring plenty of athletic ability to the table. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that athleticism translates to good special teams play (there’s a lot more to it than raw speed), but there is no question that the unit’s ceiling has been raised by the influx of great athletes.

With continued progress from Mann, the addition of a special teams star in Hardee, and some improvement to the athleticism of the roster’s backend, the Jets should fare a lot better in the punting game next season.

94 pressures from edge rushers (29th)

Quarterbacks have enjoyed throwing from cushy pockets against the Jets for years.

Those days are no more.

The addition of Carl Lawson changes everything for a Jets franchise that has not had an intimidating edge rusher since John Abraham. Lawson had 64 pressures in 2020, fourth-most among edge rushers. The Jets’ top-two edge threats – Tarell Basham and Jordan Jenkins – combined for 63 pressures.

Don’t forget about the impact that Vinny Curry can have over a small dosage of opportunities. Curry created pressures on 14.0% of his pass-rush snaps in 2020, ranking at the 94th percentile among qualified edge rushers.

386 receiving yards from RBs (30th)

The Jets got very little out of their running backs in the passing game last year. No Jets running back hit 100 receiving yards (Ty Johnson led the way with 99), and the group scored only one touchdown through the air (courtesy of Johnson against the Rams in Week 15).

Adam Gase did not make the position a focal point in the passing game, as the Jets ranked 27th with 73 targets to running backs. However, he could hardly be blamed for doing so, as the group was not efficient when given chances. New York’s running backs averaged 5.3 yards per target, ranking 24th.

These numbers are likely to be turned around in 2021. Firstly, Mike LaFleur comes from a 49ers offense that heavily utilized its backs in the passing game, so the position should be prioritized in the aerial attack more than it was with Gase at the helm. San Francisco’s backfield (including fullback Kyle Juszczyk) ranked fifth in receiving yards (828) and targets (129) in 2020. The unit ranked eighth in yards per target (6.5).

In addition, the Jets have improved the pass-catching talent of their backfield.

Tevin Coleman is a top-notch receiving back. For his career, Coleman has averaged 7.2 yards per target and has picked up a first down or a touchdown on 32.5% of his targets – those are elite numbers for a running back (2020 positional averages: 5.7 and 24.9%).

Fourth-round pick Michael Carter was a great receiving option at North Carolina. In 2020, he averaged 8.9 yards per target and posted a 43.3% conversion rate, averaging 24.3 receiving yards per game and catching two touchdowns over 11 games.

 

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54.8 run blocking grade from WRs and TEs (25th)

Skill position blocking has not been a strength for the Jets in a while. Their struggles to generate an exciting outside run game or screen game have largely been due to their lack of quality blockers at wide receiver at tight end. In 2020, the Jets’ wide receivers and tight ends combined for a run blocking grade of 54.8 at PFF, ranking 25th in the NFL.

With LaFleur likely to install an offense that will be heavily reliant on outside runs and manufactured underneath touches in the passing game, the blocking quality of the Jets’ skill position players is going to be crucial.

The team put a clear emphasis on this skill with their additions in free agency:

  • Corey Davis: 67.5 run blocking grade in 2020 (77th percentile among WR)
  • Keelan Cole: 64.8 run blocking grade in 2020 (74th percentile among WR)
  • Tyler Kroft: 63.8 run blocking grade in 2020 (68th percentile among TE)

Finally, the Jets’ playmakers will have some holes to work with on the edge.

8.1 yards per target allowed by LBs (26th)

The Jets allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends (1,105) and the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs (673). Their struggles with covering non-wide receivers were mostly due to the linebacker position.

New York’s linebackers combined to allow 1,025 passing yards over 126 targets, an average of 8.1 yards per target that ranked seventh-worst among the league’s linebacker groups. Opponents had a 108.5 passer rating when targeting the Jets’ linebackers.

While there are question marks at the linebacker spots beside him, C.J. Mosley will represent a major boost for the Jets in this area. Since 2016, Mosley has a PFF coverage grade of 73.1. That mark would have placed Mosley at the 87th percentile among qualified linebackers in 2020. The Jets’ linebackers in 2020 combined for a 50.1 coverage grade (25th among the 32 LB units).

It wouldn’t be fair to expect too much out of rookies Jamien Sherwood and Hamsah Nasirildeen (in addition to the volatile Jarrad Davis and the wild-card Blake Cashman), but Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich have excelled at developing linebackers, especially in the passing game.

Saleh’s background lies largely in coaching linebackers (spending time as a linebackers coach with the Texans and Jaguars), and he oversaw tremendous linebacker production during his tenure as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator. In 2020, San Francisco’s linebackers posted the best coverage grade of any LB unit in the NFL (75.5).

Ulbrich earned a similar reputation as the Falcons’ linebackers coach from 2015-20. This past season, Atlanta’s linebackers had the sixth-best coverage grade of any LB unit (65.9).

What makes the development of Saleh and Ulbrich’s linebackers most impressive is that neither man was working with elite-level talent. There was not a single linebacker on either coach’s 2020 roster that was a first-round pick. Saleh helped grow third-round pick Fred Warner into a superstar, while fifth-round pick Dre Greenlaw has become a solid starter. Down south, Ulbrich led second-round pick Deion Jones to stardom and developed sixth-round Foyesade Oluokun into a versatile starter (in a role similar to what the Jets are projecting for their rookies).

A healthy Mosley alone will substantially improve the Jets’ coverage at linebacker, but if Saleh and Ulbrich can continue their trend of developing athletic late-round linebackers into quality starters, the possibility exists that the Jets’ linebacker unit establishes itself as one of the better pass-covering groups in the league.

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14 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The number of people on here that thought Braden Mann was good last year was astounding.

Jets fans love their JAGS and hate their pro bowlers (who eventually expect to get paid)

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Encouraging story, good forensic data and, even better, a solution offered that looks viable. Again however, the Jet’s have to look better this year, 2020 set such a low bar.

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By far the most important of these is the punt coverage improvement. Other than Sherwood, all of the other DB's drafted on day 3 are off the charts freak athletes, who were chosen in a big part to help on specials. Combined with the gunner were signed from the saints, the unit should be markedly better. You have to be able to flip field position, not give up 20+ yard returns. Think this will be the most obvious improvement this season.

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21 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The number of people on here that thought Braden Mann was good last year was astounding.

It's probably difficult to concentrate on the punt when you are worried about having to make the tackle.

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maybe this is just part of nania's analysis of the team but he left out points per game.  that has got to improve.  they were around 15 ppg last season.  if they can get this to 24 ppg things will start looking pretty good.

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1 hour ago, rangerous said:

maybe this is just part of nania's analysis of the team but he left out points per game.  that has got to improve.  they were around 15 ppg last season.  if they can get this to 24 ppg things will start looking pretty good.

I predict that by October there will be voices agitating against Douglas for "ignoring the defense in the draft" and "not giving Saleh the pieces needed to run his defense" as our offense is much higher ranked than our defense. The fact that many of these same posters preached an "all offense draft" strategy will be lost in the ether.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

I predict that by October there will be voices agitating against Douglas for "ignoring the defense in the draft" and "not giving Saleh the pieces needed to run his defense" as our offense is much higher ranked than our defense. The fact that many of these same posters preached an "all offense draft" strategy will be lost in the ether.

maybe.  considering how little talent the jets had on defense over the past couple of season they played okay.  i'm not so sure if defense overall needs more talent or more attitude.  and douglas did pick up some b players in free agency.  i think a decent defense coupled to an offense that can score points is going to create a team that's difficult to beat.  and i hope those same fans realize something needed to be done.  drafting defensive tackles over and over certainly wasn't  a good strategy.

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3 minutes ago, rangerous said:

maybe.  considering how little talent the jets had on defense over the past couple of season they played okay.  i'm not so sure if defense overall needs more talent or more attitude.  and douglas did pick up some b players in free agency.  i think a decent defense coupled to an offense that can score points is going to create a team that's difficult to beat.  and i hope those same fans realize something needed to be done.  drafting defensive tackles over and over certainly wasn't  a good strategy.

I agree Jets have done it arse backwards in recent times. It's an offense-driven league. Probably makes more sense from a team building perspective to over-allocate resources there until you have something that works then focus on defense to gear up for a SB window.

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