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Justin Herbert is the Next NFL Draft BUST


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14 minutes ago, varjet said:

His coaches deserve a lot of credit.  The Jets would have ruined him. 

100%

fit matters more then skill and potential 

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You think if Herbert was on the Jets last year coached by Gase and Hobbit he is ROY?  Or even Bowles?  No way. 

Probably not, but let’s not pretend the dude was being coached by Bill Walsh out in (Not) San Diego.
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1 hour ago, artemusclyde said:

Doubtful, Herbert has it. The guy came in and started with a shortened offseason and no preseason, and then proceeded to put up the best rookie year ever. If you're going to give his coaches props, it should be John Beck who was his private qb coach leading up to the draft. Should bode well for Wilson since he's been his private qb coach too since his time in college.

I get that there are good coaches and bad coaches, but sometimes a coach and a player just don't "fit". Hopefully Wilson & Beck do get on well, but there's no guarantee on that just because of how Beck and Herbert have worked out.

Many years ago I was involved in archery, and was being coached by a guy who was very well respected and had helped lots of better archers than me get to where they were. But there were times where between the two of us it just didn't work - his way of explaining and my way of understanding were just too different. At one point - I think he was tearing his hair out - he suggested I see if another coach could hep on the issue we were struggling with. The other guy sorted out in 5 minutes what it had taken the original coach 5 weeks to get nowhere with. Not a knock on either coach - just very different ways of explaining things.

 

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1 hour ago, varjet said:

You think if Herbert was on the Jets last year coached by Gase and Hobbit he is ROY?  Or even Bowles?  No way. 

I say 100% no with Gase and Frodo but 25% chance with Bowles and staff. I’m saying this with no knowledge of the supporting cast Herbert had. Kid just seems to plain have it, 

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1 hour ago, Flightattendant said:

Just goes to show the "experts" have no idea what's going on. Let alone the armchair GMs like us.

If the standard is that to be an expert, you have to be right every time, everyone is a moron.

Stephen Hawking lost a bet about the actual existence of black holes -- which everyone agreed were possible theoretically -- to Kip Thorne (the physicist who consulted on the scientifically-excellent film "Interstellar"). What an idiot!!!

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2 hours ago, artemusclyde said:

Doubtful, Herbert has it. The guy came in and started with a shortened offseason and no preseason, and then proceeded to put up the best rookie year ever. If you're going to give his coaches props, it should be John Beck who was his private qb coach leading up to the draft. Should bode well for Wilson since he's been his private qb coach too since his time in college.

Kind of funny.  When Herbert was considering declaring he was considered a guy with all the tools, but people weren't sure if he had "it."  A great deal had to do with lack of vocal leadership. 

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3 hours ago, varjet said:

His coaches deserve a lot of credit.  The Jets would have ruined him. 

 

3 hours ago, k-met57 said:

100%

fit matters more then skill and potential 

Everyone has a hand in a rookie QB's success. But you can't carve a "David" from a dried mound of elephant sh*t. Cream always finds its way to the top.

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2 hours ago, artemusclyde said:

Doubtful, Herbert has it. The guy came in and started with a shortened offseason and no preseason, and then proceeded to put up the best rookie year ever. If you're going to give his coaches props, it should be John Beck who was his private qb coach leading up to the draft. Should bode well for Wilson since he's been his private qb coach too since his time in college.

Yea, like how well it worked out for Darnold having the same QB coach as Josh Allen. 

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3 hours ago, varjet said:

His coaches deserve a lot of credit.  The Jets would have ruined him. 

 

3 hours ago, k-met57 said:

100%

fit matters more then skill and potential 

With baseless statements like this, no wonder the Jets and its fan base are national laughing stocks. 
 

Smfh you two should be ashamed because in reality there is no way to prove this nonsense 

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12 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

 

With baseless statements like this, no wonder the Jets and its fan base are national laughing stocks. 
 

Smfh you two should be ashamed because in reality there is no way to prove this nonsense 

They are entitled to their opinion. And we are entitled to laugh at it.

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The most important part of being a QB in the NFL is the internal clock and ability to read the field in that short window. That can't be accurately diagnosed in college, and sometimes a QB has it like Herbert or they don't

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

If the standard is that to be an expert, you have to be right every time, everyone is a moron.

Stephen Hawking lost a bet about the actual existence of black holes -- which everyone agreed were possible theoretically -- to Kip Thorne (the physicist who consulted on the scientifically-excellent film "Interstellar"). What an idiot!!!

You're kind of agreeing with the point I'm trying to make. It's just a crapshoot alot of the time. 

Could have came across more clear. My B.

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3 hours ago, Flightattendant said:

Just goes to show the "experts" have no idea what's going on. Let alone the armchair GMs like us.

I posted here (and there is a record) that Herbert would be the best QB in the draft.  Actual GM's and armchair GM's get it right about half the time :-) 

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28 minutes ago, Flightattendant said:

You're kind of agreeing with the point I'm trying to make. It's just a crapshoot alot of the time. 

Could have came across more clear. My B.

Bat .333 for your career and you're in the HOF. This is true of baseball players and GMs.

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31/10.  OROY.  Arguably the best rookie season by a QB in NFL history.  Despite having the # 32 ranked OL and a HC who got fired. 

(Yes, he had outstanding wepppinzzz.  Miss me with that one, as that doesn't fully explain his breakout performance as just a rookie.)

Yet so many here STILL choose to believe that environmental factors play more of an impact on a QB's success than the QB's own DNA and abilities.  

I'm sure that's true.  After all, OL, coaches, receivers and GM's all get paid more than QB's right?  

Wait....

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3 hours ago, varjet said:

You think if Herbert was on the Jets last year coached by Gase and Hobbit he is ROY?  Or even Bowles?  No way. 

No but there is a huge gap between Herbert's performance and Darnold's, where Darnold ranked # 36.

Put Darnold in LA and he's probably no better than, say, QB25.  And I'm being generous by even suggesting he could have finished in the top 30.  After all, he was QB32 (or worse) his first 2 years in the pros, too.  

Put Herbert in New York and he's still an OROY candidate or at least still has a very good season, somewhere in the top 15 or so in the league.

Joe Flacco, who was basically a corpse and visibly demonstrated at times that he had no interest being on the field, looked decent with these terrible coaches and supporting cast.  Not good, but decent.  He didn't win any games, but he looked decent, and much better than Darnold.  Because decent is better than Darnold, who was an abomination last season, in his 3rd year in the pros.  

Therefore, Herbert's success and failure is not dictated entirely by his circumstances.  In fact, it probably does not even come close to explaining a majority of his success as a rookie.  

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2 hours ago, jamesr said:

I get that there are good coaches and bad coaches, but sometimes a coach and a player just don't "fit". Hopefully Wilson & Beck do get on well, but there's no guarantee on that just because of how Beck and Herbert have worked out.

Many years ago I was involved in archery, and was being coached by a guy who was very well respected and had helped lots of better archers than me get to where they were. But there were times where between the two of us it just didn't work - his way of explaining and my way of understanding were just too different. At one point - I think he was tearing his hair out - he suggested I see if another coach could hep on the issue we were struggling with. The other guy sorted out in 5 minutes what it had taken the original coach 5 weeks to get nowhere with. Not a knock on either coach - just very different ways of explaining things.

 

Yes to different results from different coaches.  My experience is tennis.  New coach fixed me in five minutes; had tons of effort with old coach and nothing clicked.  Golf coaches is like that too.   

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3 hours ago, varjet said:

You think if Herbert was on the Jets last year coached by Gase and Hobbit he is ROY?  Or even Bowles?  No way. 

As long as we'll never be able to prove it, we can say anything we want!

Still, you would think if the "it's all the Jets fault" stuff were true, we'd see a long line of underperforming players leaving the team going on to great things elsewhere.  Yet, Sanchez still sucked, Geno still sucked, Hackenberg still sucked, Petty still sucked, and that's just the recent QBs.

The only example may be Demario Davis, who isn't even a great example because he was a fine player for the Jets, who they decided to let go of rather than giving him a 2nd contract and only became a top tier player in his 8th and 9th seasons in the league.

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3 hours ago, varjet said:

You think if Herbert was on the Jets last year coached by Gase and Hobbit he is ROY?  Or even Bowles?  No way. 

Herbert isn't ROY with Gase and Jets but he's not ranked 30th either. 

IMO, this argument is like 80/20.  80% is the QB player talent.  20% is coach and weaponz.  

Herbert on last years Jets would have had top 15 QB numbers.

 

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Just now, dcJet said:

Herbert isn't ROY with Gase and Jets but he's not ranked 30th either. 

IMO, this argument is like 80/20.  80% is the QB player talent.  20% is coach and weaponz.  

Herbert on last years Jets would have had top 15 QB numbers.

 

This is what people refuse to accept.

It's as if the two possibilities are elite or terrible, and nothing in between.

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8 hours ago, The Troll said:


Probably not, but let’s not pretend the dude was being coached by Bill Walsh out in (Not) San Diego.

Yeah but he had a great center & we all know no QB can perform with a very subpar one amirite?

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10 hours ago, jetsons said:

This didn't age¬†well¬†ūüėČ... When you ignore¬†your detractors & Win The Offensive ROY Award...¬†

 

 

We should merge this with kdels62's take in today's thread saying Trevor Lawrence will be the third best QB from this year's Draft and watching Wilson battle Fields for #1.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Flightattendant said:

Just goes to show the "experts" have no idea what's going on. Let alone the armchair GMs like us.

Couldn’t agree with you more at the end of the day NOBODY knows how these guys will pan out. There are some guys who clearly are better scouts and talent evaluators than others but there is nobody who can guarantee a player 

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10 hours ago, dcJet said:

Herbert isn't ROY with Gase and Jets but he's not ranked 30th either. 

IMO, this argument is like 80/20.  80% is the QB player talent.  20% is coach and weaponz.  

Herbert on last years Jets would have had top 15 QB numbers.

 

Very excellent post. True Franchise QBs can perhaps be delayed but they cannot be denied.

1 hour ago, DepressedJetsFan23 said:

Couldn’t agree with you more at the end of the day NOBODY knows how these guys will pan out. There are some guys who clearly are better scouts and talent evaluators than others but there is nobody who can guarantee a player 

It’s not about guarantees. It’s about doing everything you can to add every last extra percentage point you can to the likelihood that you make the right call.

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