Jump to content

ESPN dickbeater: 2022 NFL draft order, Jets #1


Recommended Posts

Love it.  This is actually great news. They are wrong so often. Great motivator for Saleh. Thank you ESPN.  Just like the NY  Knicks, who on the eve of the NBA season, were a laughing stock by all the talking heads our NY Jets will have the same opportunity to shove it up all their asses. Yeah, what Bart Scott said, "Can't Wait!" 

 

  • Upvote 4
  • Sympathy 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Copernicus said:

Love it.  This is actually great news. They are wrong so often. Great motivator for Saleh. Thank you ESPN.  Just like the NY  Knicks, who on the eve of the NBA season, were a laughing stock by all the talking heads our NY Jets will have the same opportunity to shove it up all their asses. Yeah, what Bart Scott said, "Can't Wait!" 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Bronx said:

For each team, we've listed a best-case scenario of what would take our prediction of a top-10 draft pick and turn it into a playoff season.

If you have access to the article, can you at least give us their best case scenario... ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bronx said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31462327/2022-nfl-draft-order-projections-predicting-top-10-picks-why-jets-no-1

Aaron Schatz

Football Outsiders

As soon as one NFL draft ends, we're all looking forward to the next. And while every fan wants to have hope for his or her favorite team going into a new season, that hope takes a bit of a hit if you see your team forecast with a top-10 draft pick.

With the 2021 NFL draft in the rearview mirror, we wanted to go through the teams we currently have projected with the top-10 picks in the 2022 draft, and explain a little bit about those predictions. The projections are created by forecasting a range of possibilities for each team's offense, defense and special teams based on numerous factors, including personnel changes, three-year performance, standard regression toward the mean and schedule strength.

If your favorite team is listed here, don't fret. Over the last three seasons, seven of the teams we projected to have top-10 draft picks instead ended up making the playoffs. There's a lot of year-to-year change in the NFL, and prognostication is difficult. For each team, we've listed a best-case scenario of what would take our prediction of a top-10 draft pick and turn it into a playoff season.

 

Here are our projections for the top-10 picks of the 2022 NFL draft:

 

1. New York Jets

 

They're talking about Seattle's pick. correct?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

Sign me up, we’re still 1 more draft away with a few more holes to fill.

That said. 0.00% chance Jets get the #1 unless it’s through Seattle. I’m SHOCKED it’s not Houston at 1.

Jinx alert! Take that back right now!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

 

Compared to Bill James by The New York Times Magazine, AARON SCHATZ is the creator of Football Outsiders and most of the original statistical methods used in NFL analysis on this website, as well as lead writer, editor, and statistician on the book series Football Outsiders Almanac. He also writes for ESPN.com and ESPN The Magazine and appears weekly during the season on the Off The Charts podcast. During the 2011 season, he was a regular panelist on the ESPN2 show Numbers Never* Lie. Before Football Outsiders, Aaron spent five years on the radio at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach, and three years as the writer and producer of the Lycos 50, the Internet's foremost authority on the people, places, and things that are searched online. He has written for a number of publications including The New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect, and the Boston Phoenix. He lives in Auburn, Massachusetts."

 

I bolded and underlined the relevant parts of his bio.

  • Upvote 1
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lith said:

Never understood why people get upset when a writer expects us to be bad.  We have sucked for 10 years.  For those of us who follow the team closely, it may look like things are changing, but we have not done a damn thing on the field yet since fininshing 2-14.  I really don't care if a national writer who follows the team more casually thinks we are going to suck again.   Besdies, saying the Jets are gonna suck is always good for clicks.

One way to change the narrative is start winning games in September.

 Not true. We went from 7-9 to 2-14. That’s quite the achievement. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Bronx said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31462327/2022-nfl-draft-order-projections-predicting-top-10-picks-why-jets-no-1

Aaron Schatz

Football Outsiders

As soon as one NFL draft ends, we're all looking forward to the next. And while every fan wants to have hope for his or her favorite team going into a new season, that hope takes a bit of a hit if you see your team forecast with a top-10 draft pick.

With the 2021 NFL draft in the rearview mirror, we wanted to go through the teams we currently have projected with the top-10 picks in the 2022 draft, and explain a little bit about those predictions. The projections are created by forecasting a range of possibilities for each team's offense, defense and special teams based on numerous factors, including personnel changes, three-year performance, standard regression toward the mean and schedule strength.

If your favorite team is listed here, don't fret. Over the last three seasons, seven of the teams we projected to have top-10 draft picks instead ended up making the playoffs. There's a lot of year-to-year change in the NFL, and prognostication is difficult. For each team, we've listed a best-case scenario of what would take our prediction of a top-10 draft pick and turn it into a playoff season.

 

Here are our projections for the top-10 picks of the 2022 NFL draft:

 

1. New York Jets

 

The tank is on

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, Stark said:

The Jets have our worst overall projection, in particular our worst offensive projection. Obviously, Zach Wilson brings hope to Jets fans that the offense will finally turn things around. However, top-drafted rookie quarterbacks often take time to develop or -- as in the case of Sam Darnold, Wilson's predecessor -- they don't develop at all. Since 2013, quarterbacks taken in the top half of the first round who played as rookies found their teams averaging 25th in offensive DVOA.

But the quarterback is just part of the projection for the Jets. We also look at their performance over the past three years and that has been dismal, ranking in the bottom four for three straight years. It's not just the passing game, as the Jets' running game also ranked in the bottom six for three straight years. The Jets have added some offensive talent, in particular wide receiver Corey Davis, but the boost in our projection system from those new players is not enough to counterbalance the value of a rookie quarterback and the Jets' poor recent performance overall.

The Jets' defense projects better than the offense but our system sees less upside than other defenses with similar recent track records. Yes, Robert Saleh is bringing a strong scheme with him that performed well in San Francisco. But defenses in new schemes, all else being equal, tend to play a little bit worse than average. And there are still a lot of questions about the secondary, in particular where the starting cornerbacks are both young, lower-round picks (Bryce Halland Bless Austin).

Best-case scenario: Wilson plays well right out of the gate, finally turning around the long-struggling offense. Saleh's defensive scheme clicks immediately and covers up for the questions in the secondary. Free-agent addition Carl Lawson plays up to his huge contract as one of the league's top edge rushers. The best-case scenario also would require a lot of injuries in Buffalo; otherwise, this dream still ends with the Jets getting just a wild card.

 

JETS part of article above.....People just underestimate how sh*tty Gase was and how much the players didn't play for him. 

Basically agree with their take, but still see five or six wins rather than a league-worst type of year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...