How good can this Jets DL be?

[Warfish]

41 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Leo was a better pass rusher than given credit for but he was considered to be a bad pass rusher when in reality he was actually above average. Lawson’s pressures present as elite even though his sack totals are far from elite. He’s probably closer to elite than mediocre.

I hope so.

I just hope we're not all sitting here this time next season trying to pretend a few pressures here and there are as good as a few sacks, tackles for loss, fumbles, etc.  The actuals game changing stats an elite edge should provide.

Pressures are good, better than no pressures, but alot of "pressures" still end up as completions.

[jgb]

3 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Leo was a better pass rusher than given credit for but he was considered to be a bad pass rusher when in reality he was actually above average. Lawson’s pressures present as elite even though his sack totals are far from elite. He’s probably closer to elite than mediocre.

I dunno. You’d think an elite player would close more. He played one year without Atkins opposite and he had 5.5 sacks. Also didn’t see a big boost in production even after becoming a full time player with Atkins out of the lineup. If he were elite or trending elite why didn’t he step into the Atkins role last year? Seems like a situational pass rusher to me. Which is fine we need guys who can fill that role and bring pressure when needed.
 

He is intriguing athletically that’s as far as I’ll go. Don’t count your sacks until we start seeing QBs on the ground.

We are kind of banking on the hope that the Bengals somehow didn’t know what they had in him after 4 years.

[Jetsfan80]

11 hours ago, jgb said:

Without a premier EDGE, we'll probably have above average run-stopping grade and a below average pass-rushing grade. Same as usual.

I don't think its a crazy idea to suggest Lawson can be that guy.  

We still need a lot more though.  Saleh's system requires like 6-8 quality pass rushers rotating in and out, with pass rush coming at all 4 spots on the DL.  A guy like Zuniga developing in year 2 would be enormous.

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

I hope so.

I just hope we're not all sitting here this time next season trying to pretend a few pressures here and there are as good as a few sacks, tackles for loss, fumbles, etc.  The actuals game changing stats an elite edge should provide.

Pressures are good, better than no pressures, but alot of "pressures" still end up as completions.

But part of that is simply the way the game has evolved.  Pass rushers can do nearly everything right and the defense can still give up gaudy numbers, because DB's can barely touch the receivers without drawing a flag, and pass rushers have to be careful not to get 15 yard flags themselves.  

The Bucs showed how a pass rush can transform a game on its own, but even then, that required injuries across the KC offensive line for it to happen.

[JetBlue]

12 hours ago, GreenFish said:

Carl Lawson playing up to his potential will go a long way. He’s been good when healthy. We need him to stay healthy.

Our interior pass rush with Q, Rankins and JFM will help Lawson. Teams will have to put 3 hats on our interior guys. That’s going to leave Lawson one on one often. Q and Lawson are going to be a problem for teams. You can only double one.

The biggest thing that’ll hold us back is the second edge position. Vinny Curry is a start but we need someone else to step up and provide a solid rotation with him.

I think Jonathan Marshall could surprise and earn rotation minutes.  Kid is an athletic freak. 

[Smashmouth]

6 hours ago, Warfish said:

I hope so.

I just hope we're not all sitting here this time next season trying to pretend a few pressures here and there are as good as a few sacks, tackles for loss, fumbles, etc.  The actuals game changing stats an elite edge should provide.

Pressures are good, better than no pressures, but alot of "pressures" still end up as completions.

Leading the League in Pressures and QB hits is not a few here and there... its leading the league ! You could be talking split seconds between 5 sacks and 12-15 . Pressures disrupt a QB's rhythm and can create turnovers, sacks are over rated for the simple reason what really counts is when you apply that pressure or when you get that sack. 4th Quarter sacks with the game on the line are what's important and that goes for pressures as well. Contrary to what you said in an earlier post Pressures are huge and they have a big effect on a QB as do QB hits. Only the elite QB's come back in games they are under constant pressure and the Only QB I would trust to come back in a beat down situation is Tom Brady so its rare even for some elite QB's to come back in a game under constant pressure. Pressure is where its at even more so consistent pressure sometimes that does not always lead to sacks but its getting the job done and that's why we signed Lawson

[jgb]

11 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't think its a crazy idea to suggest Lawson can be that guy.  

We still need a lot more though.  Saleh's system requires like 6-8 quality pass rushers rotating in and out, with pass rush coming at all 4 spots on the DL.  A guy like Zuniga developing in year 2 would be enormous.

He can be the guy and he is a next-gen stats darling and I love data. It's also not a crazy idea to be skeptical:

-Why didn't all of these pressures lead to more sacks?

-Why -- if he lives in the backfield so much -- did he only have 4 TFL in 2020? As a situational pass rusher in seasons 1-3 he had 8, 1 (8 games), 6, respectively.

-Why didn't the Bengals extend him despite having the 3rd most cap space?

-Why didn't Bengals franchise him? The price tag for that is ~$16M. Jets signed him for 3/$45M. 

-Why were Lawson's sacks flat and tackles/TFLs didn't increase proportionally to his becoming a full time player in 2020?

-Was Lawson's rookie year (8.5 sacks) an outlier (@nico002)

-Why was Lawson on his way to a dud season in Year 2 (1.0 sack) before tearing his Achilles in week 8?

-He can clearly beat blockers (leading to pressures) but has he lost something (closing speed) due to that injury?

I posit that Lawson -- as a situational pass rusher -- benefitted greatly from all-world Atkins being opposite years 1 and 3 (with year 2 being a disaster even with Atkins there soaking up attention). When he had his shot to be "the guy" in year 4, he was who he was the year before -- in fact, his production went way down across the board on a per-snap basis. I see Lawson as a Whitney Mercilous type. Not only do that have nearly-identical athletic profiles, but Mercilous' best year (only year with double-digit sacks) was when JJ Watt led the NFL in sacks opposite him. In other years -- including when Watt is out -- Mercilous is a 5-sack-a-year dude.

This is not to say that I think Lawson (or Mercilous for that matter) is worthless or that it's a bad signing -- situational pass rushers are valuable. And I acknowledge that there is certainly a case in the advanced stats that Lawson could be like a WR that catches 88 balls for 1,444 yards but only has 3 TDs (Julio Jones in 2017) since sacks are a bit flukie but three years in a row (ok, 2.5)? That's a significant amount of data in a football context to draw some conclusions.

If QW develops into a premier space-eater, then Lawson can be free to do his thing. But couldn't that be said of a lot of EDGE guys facing single-teams? I haven't seen anything to suggest Lawson can beat double teams consistently or create without help. And if Lawson turns into a sack master, can he maintain when offenses start game-planning for him?

The case for Lawson is heavily based on the premise that the Bengals had something special and failed to recognize it to the extent they didn't even franchise him for a relatively modest sum to get an extra year to evaluate him as a full-time player. Panther fans are currently trying to convince themselves of a similar hypothesis in regards to Darnold. Except the case that a secret-elite-EDGE-in-hiding can be "held back" by what's around him is even weaker than it is for a QB.

Over/under sacks for 2021: 5.5 (not as pessimistic as it seems, remember injury risk is baked into o/u). If I could be assured he'd play 16 games, I'd probably go with 6.5-7.0. So you see I don't think he's a garbage player. It would be a help if our offensive is competent for the first time in years and forces opponents into more passing situations.

[Warfish]

7 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

Leading the League in Pressures and QB hits is not a few here and there... its leading the league ! You could be talking split seconds between 5 sacks and 12-15 . Pressures disrupt a QB's rhythm and can create turnovers, sacks are over rated for the simple reason what really counts is when you apply that pressure or when you get that sack. 4th Quarter sacks with the game on the line are what's important and that goes for pressures as well. Contrary to what you said in an earlier post Pressures are huge and they have a big effect on a QB as do QB hits. Only the elite QB's come back in games they are under constant pressure and the Only QB I would trust to come back in a beat down situation is Tom Brady so its rare even for some elite QB's to come back in a game under constant pressure. Pressure is where its at even more so consistent pressure sometimes that does not always lead to sacks but its getting the job done and that's why we signed Lawson

Yes, "pressure", in the very generic sense, is important for a Defense.

No, "Pressures" and "QB Hits" are not meaningful statistics, because they do not take into account the ACTUAL result of the play.

To wit, a player could have five (5) "pressures" in a game, five times he ALMOST got to the QB......all of which resulted in completed passes for 40 yard gains.

Sorry, in that case those "pressures" meant piss all.  The "pressures" stat alone is borderline meaningless. 

First off, as a "almost did something but didn't quite" stat, it's very subjective, not objective (like a sack).  There is no question when a sack is achieved.  We could argue all day as to what a "Pressure" should or could be.

Second, for the stat to have any actual meaning, the result of the play where the pressure was applied would need to be included in some kind of more complex, baseball-like, total result formula.  And it isn't.

Again, since he is a Jet, and we paid alot to get him, and because we have consistently sucked at getting to the QB, we'll all be rooting for him.  Have no doubt about that.

But he hopefully will do more for us than "lead the league in not quite getting to the QB in time". 

I would presume you would want that too, so not sure why you seemingly have an objection here.  He either will or won't produce, "almosts" don't count.

[jgb]

50 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yes, "pressure", in the very generic sense, is important for a Defense.

No, "Pressures" and "QB Hits" are not meaningful statistics, because they do not take into account the ACTUAL result of the play.

To wit, a player could have five (5) "pressures" in a game, five times he ALMOST got to the QB......all of which resulted in completed passes for 40 yard gains.

Sorry, in that case those "pressures" meant piss all.  The "pressures" stat alone is borderline meaningless. 

First off, as a "almost did something but didn't quite" stat, it's very subjective, not objective (like a sack).  There is no question when a sack is achieved.  We could argue all day as to what a "Pressure" should or could be.

Second, for the stat to have any actual meaning, the result of the play where the pressure was applied would need to be included in some kind of more complex, baseball-like, total result formula.  And it isn't.

Again, since he is a Jet, and we paid alot to get him, and because we have consistently sucked at getting to the QB, we'll all be rooting for him.  Have no doubt about that.

But he hopefully will do more for us than "lead the league in not quite getting to the QB in time". 

I would presume you would want that too, so not sure why you seemingly have an objection here.  He either will or won't produce, "almosts" don't count.

Both the optimistic cases and pessimistic cases for Lawson have merit.

I would like to point out, however, that the "pessimistic" case is not that Lawson sucks or is a bum. It's that we've already seen who he is. Valuable to a defense with what he brings but not a guy who instills fear in opposing OLs. It's easy to mischaracterize opposing positions as "all or nothing." I'm certainly not suggesting that.

Upvote for your point that we are all rooting for him. Shame it even needs to be said but it does.

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Both the optimistic cases and pessimistic cases for Lawson have merit.

I would like to point out, however, that the "pessimistic" case is not that Lawson sucks or is a bum. It's that we've already seen who he is. Valuable to a defense with what he brings but not a game-breaker who instills fear in opposing OLs. It's easy to mischaracterize opposing positions as "all or nothing." I'm certainly not suggesting that.

Agreed.  Well said, as usual.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

No, "Pressures" and "QB Hits" are not meaningful statistics, because they do not take into account the ACTUAL result of the play.

I do wish we had that data on the play result. I’m guessing someone out there probably does.  But what you’re describing gets washed out a bit by sample size.  

If Lawson lead the league in QB Hits, you have to assume a lot of those ended up in positive results for the defense.  But even if they didn’t, can’t you still argue Lawson did his job on those plays?  If you can’t get there in time to sack the QB, at least putting him on the ground is the next best thing, and it helps your D by being “disruptive”.  

Obviously, as @jgb pointed out, Lawson was let go for a reason. But beggars can’t be choosers.  Quality EDGE rushers rarely hit FA, and even those rarely choose a team like the Jets, so you kind of have to just take what you can get.

In this case, Saleh’s system should benefit Lawson nicely, hence why I think he actually is a solid pass rusher who chose to come here for good reasons. 

[jgb]

10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I do wish we had that data on the play result. I’m guessing someone out there probably does.  But what you’re describing gets washed out a bit by sample size.  

If Lawson lead the league in QB Hits, you have to assume a lot of those ended up in positive results for the defense.  But even if they didn’t, can’t you still argue Lawson did his job on those plays?  If you can’t get there in time to sack the QB, at least putting him on the ground is the next best thing, and it helps your D by being “disruptive”.  

Obviously, as @jgb pointed out, Lawson was let go for a reason. But beggars can’t be choosers.  Quality EDGE rushers rarely hit FA, and even those rarely choose a team like the Jets, so you kind of have to just take what you can get.

In this case, Saleh’s system should benefit Lawson nicely, hence why I think he actually is a solid pass rusher who chose to come here for good reasons. 

I liked the pickup. $15M/year puts him right in the middle of the pack for EDGE players. Seems about right. Knock on him was that he was a bit of liability in run defense (although improving each year) but we're paying him to get to the QB. A guy who can disrupt the passer often and "only" deliver ~6-7 sacks a year is worth that money. Giants are paying Leo $6M more a year (#5 edge money) based on one outlier (!!) year.

Even the "pessimistic" view on Lawson isn't really that pessimistic. There are no Lawson Haterz here. Well unless he has 12 sacks next year and demands a pay raise. Then there will be lol.

[Jetsfan80]

32 minutes ago, jgb said:

I liked the pickup. $15M/year puts him right in the middle of the pack for EDGE players. Seems about right. Knock on him was that he was a bit of liability in run defense (although improving each year) but we're paying him to get to the QB. A guy who can disrupt the passer often and "only" deliver ~6-7 sacks a year is worth that money. Giants are paying Leo $6M more a year (#5 edge money) based on one outlier (!!) year.

Even the "pessimistic" view on Lawson isn't really that pessimistic. There are no Lawson Haterz here. Well unless he has 12 sacks next year and demands a pay raise. Then there will be lol.

Definitely not, and I don't think of either of you or Warfish as Lawson "haters" based on what you're saying.  Just skeptics.  And that's totally fair.  Any success he had may well have come from being next to Geno Atkins.  He may well be a bust here even in a system that is designed to showcase him.  But the upside is also tantalizing, as you certainly seem to agree.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Definitely not, and I don't think of either of you or Warfish as Lawson "haters" based on what you're saying.  Just skeptics.  And that's totally fair.  Any success he had may well have come from being next to Geno Atkins.  He may well be a bust here even in a system that is designed to showcase him.  But the upside is also tantalizing, as you certainly seem to agree.

Yes, I do. 

[Warfish]

39 minutes ago, jgb said:

Even the "pessimistic" view on Lawson isn't really that pessimistic. There are no Lawson Haterz here. 

Exactly, this is a discussion (for me) regarding the value or lack thereof of a specific statistic "Pressures", and what that stat really means or doesn't mean.  Like a few of us here, I like the numbers/meaning/analytics/interpretation aspect of some of these things.

Lawson is an upgrade over what we had.  His position was a need, and he was one of the best options available, outside the draft, to fill that need.  And I didn't support drafting an Edge high, so I'm good with his acquisition.

I think I just hesitate to engage in the usual hyperbole of fans calling him "elite" or projecting a 10+ sack season.  We'll see what he is, but he should provide a meaningful upgrade to the D-Line in passing downs.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Exactly, this is a discussion (for me) regarding the value or lack thereof of a specific statistic "Pressures", and what that stat really means or doesn't mean.  Like a few of us here, I like the numbers/meaning/analytics/interpretation aspect of some of these things.

Lawson is an upgrade over what we had.  His position was a need, and he was one of the best options available, outside the draft, to fill that need.  And I didn't support drafting an Edge high, so I'm good with his acquisition.

I think I just hesitate to engage in the usual hyperbole of fans calling him "elite" or projecting a 10+ sack season.  We'll see what he is, but he should provide a meaningful upgrade to the D-Line in passing downs.

Now if we really want to raise blood pressures, start a poll "who will have the better season: Lawson or Davis."

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Now if we really want to raise blood pressures, start a poll "who will have the better season: Lawson or Davis."

It's funny, people have called me a "hater" of both, yet I'm honestly cautiously optimistic about both, and have stated clearly they're both upgrades for us this year vs. 2020.

[jgb]

7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

It's funny, people have called me a "hater" of both, yet I'm honestly cautiously optimistic about both, and have stated clearly they're both upgrades for us this year vs. 2020.

The great irony of the digital revolution is that the more information society has at its fingertips, the less nuance is valued.

You must choose! Yes or no! Friend or foe! Stud or bum!

[JetsFanShawn]

good quastone how good  the whole team will be

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, JetsFanShawn said:

good quastone how good  the whole team will be