Who will lead the 2021 NYJ in Receptions, Receiving Yards, & Rushing?

[Sarge4Tide]

Who will lead the 2021 NYJ in Receptions, Receiving Yards, & Rushing?

[UntouchableCrew]

As far as receptions I said Crowder and yards I said Mims, but I think there are various combinations -- how involved Moore is from the beginning is a big factor as I see a wide range of possibilities for how much he's involved.

I think Carter will be RB1 from the beginning and lead the team in yards. Feel more confident in that even though it'll likely be a committee with Johnson and Coleman.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Who will lead the 2021 NYJ in Receptions, Receiving Yards, & Rushing?

Can you add receiving TD's into the mix as an additional question?  It would be Corey Davis for me.  Even though I have Crowder leading in receptions and Mims leading in yards.  

[Joe W. Namath]

Mims, Mims, Perine

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

As far as receptions I said Crowder and yards I said Mims, but I think there are various combinations -- how involved Moore is from the beginning is a big factor as I see a wide range of possibilities for how much he's involved.

Hard to ever expect a lot of productivity out of a rookie WR, even if he is a starting WR out of the gates and/or impresses in whatever role he has.  Something like just 15 (or so) receivers in NFL history have had a 1,000+ yard season as rookies.  

Just look at last year's "historic" WR class:  Only one (Justin Jefferson) had 1,000+ yards (1,400).  Next was CeeDee Lamb, at 935, followed by Tee Higgins at 908, Chase Claypool at 873 and Jerry Jeudy at 856.  No one else in the class broke 800 yards.  And only 4 had 6+ TDs (Claypool - 9; Jefferson and Gabriel Davis - 7 each; Higgins - 6).  3 others had 5 (Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Laviska Shenault) and one had 4 (Darnell Mooney).

And I think we can all agree there's a ton of WR's out of that class who impressed as rookies and have bright futures.  You just don't see rookies put up big numbers, typically.  

[jgb]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Hard to ever expect a lot of productivity out of a rookie WR, even if he impresses.  Something like just 16-18 receivers in NFL history have had a 1,000+ yard season as rookies.  

Just look at last year's "historic" WR class:  Only one (Justin Jefferson) had 1,000+ yards (1,400).  Next was CeeDee Lamb, at 935, Tee Higgins at 908, Chase Claypool at 873 and Jerry Jeudy at 856.  No one else in the class broke 800 yards.  And I think we can all agree there's a ton of WR's out of that class who impressed as rookies and have bright futures.  You just don't see rookies put up big numbers, typically.  

You are wrong 'cause Randy Moss.

 

[UntouchableCrew]

51 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Hard to ever expect a lot of productivity out of a rookie WR, even if he is a starting WR out of the gates and/or impresses in whatever role he has.  Something like just 15 (or so) receivers in NFL history have had a 1,000+ yard season as rookies.  

Just look at last year's "historic" WR class:  Only one (Justin Jefferson) had 1,000+ yards (1,400).  Next was CeeDee Lamb, at 935, followed by Tee Higgins at 908, Chase Claypool at 873 and Jerry Jeudy at 856.  No one else in the class broke 800 yards.  And only 4 had 6+ TDs (Claypool - 9; Jefferson and Gabriel Davis - 7 each; Higgins - 6).  3 others had 5 (Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Laviska Shenault) and one had 4 (Darnell Mooney).

And I think we can all agree there's a ton of WR's out of that class who impressed as rookies and have bright futures.  You just don't see rookies put up big numbers, typically.  

Well, Jets receivers don't put up big numbers typically, so to lead us in receptions and yards you won't necessarily have to have a monster season. 

And truthfully my comment was more related to Crowder in the sense that the size of Moore's role could directly impact Crowder's. If Moore is getting a lot of time in the slot it seems much less likely that Crowder leads us in receptions which seems possible to me if Moore has more of a limited role. 

[Jetsfan80]

10 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Well, Jets receivers don't put up big numbers typically, so to lead us in receptions and yards you won't necessarily have to have a monster season. 

And truthfully my comment was more related to Crowder in the sense that the size of Moore's role could directly impact Crowder's. If Moore is getting a lot of time in the slot it seems much less likely that Crowder leads us in receptions which seems possible to me if Moore has more of a limited role. 

Right but the point is rookie WRs don’t usually produce much regardless of their circumstances.  Even less so with veterans ahead of them on the depth chart.  

Moore could have crap receivers surrounding him and still end up with less yards then several of them. In this case, no way I expect him to out-produce Davis or Crowder, or maybe even not out-produce Keelan Cole.  

And that’s ok. Like I’m saying, lower expectations for rookie WRs in all cases. 

[kdels62]

Corey Davis, Corey Davis, Michael Carter

[UntouchableCrew]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Right but the point is rookie WRs don’t usually produce much regardless of their circumstances.  Even less so with veterans ahead of them on the depth chart.  

Moore could have crap receivers surrounding him and still end up with less yards then several of them. In this case, no way I expect him to out-produce Davis or Crowder, or maybe even not out-produce Keelan Cole.  

And that’s ok. Like I’m saying, lower expectations for rookie WRs in all cases. 

Call me crazy but I'm bullish on his connection with Wilson out of the gate.

What would you set the over/under on for Moore yards in 2021?

[munchmemory]

I'm still hoping we get Zack Ertz to replace Herndon.  Ertz then leads the team in receptions and TDs.

[GreenReaper]

Off the top of my head speculations...

Total Catches - Corey Davis_ 70 - 75 catches

Total Rec Yards - Denzel Mims = 980 yds (62 catches x15.8 avg)

Total Rushing Yards - Michael Carter = 806 yds (179 runs x 4.5 avg )

Mystery QB...mop up time only

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Call me crazy but I'm bullish on his connection with Wilson out of the gate.

What would you set the over/under on for Moore yards in 2021?

It's an interesting take, because since Wilson is a rookie QB, he has to develop relationships with all of his WR's at the same time.  If Darnold were still here (yuck at the thought), he'd be targeting Crowder heavily because that's his "favorite" target.  With Wilson we won't know who his "favorites" are until the games get going, no matter how the depth chart is set up.

But it still comes down to opportunity.  If Moore doesn't show enough in the summer to earn a high % of snaps in this offense early on, you may well see Davis, Mims and Crowder getting a huge % of the playing time, with Moore only coming in sparingly.  Hell, Keelan Cole could very easily be ahead of him on the depth chart for a good chunk of the season.  And it could well remain that way for most of the season, with an injury being required for Moore to see the field much.  Even as a 2nd round pick, Moore is guaranteed absolutely nothing when it comes to his snap count.

So not to cop out, but I can't possibly set an O/U on Moore's yardage until we know where on the depth chart he'll fall and how many snaps he gets right out of the gates.  If he isn't a factor in the offense until Week 8 or so, then I'd set his O/U at something like 200 yards.  If we use a lot of 4-WR sets and/or Moore rises up the depth chart/snap count list early in the season, I'd put it at more like 400 yards.  

[jetophile]

Too much information. Can somebody just please catch a goddamn pass and get wheelchair assistance into the endzone. I'll take it. Thanks

[UntouchableCrew]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's an interesting take, because since Wilson is a rookie QB, he has to develop relationships with all of his WR's at the same time.  If Darnold were still here (yuck at the thought), he'd be targeting Crowder heavily because that's his "favorite" target.  With Wilson we won't know who his "favorites" are until the games get going, no matter how the depth chart is set up.

But it still comes down to opportunity.  If Moore doesn't show enough in the summer to earn a high % of snaps in this offense early on, you may well see Davis, Mims and Crowder getting a huge % of the playing time, with Moore only coming in sparingly.  Hell, Keelan Cole could very easily be ahead of him on the depth chart for a good chunk of the season.  And it could well remain that way for most of the season, with an injury being required for Moore to see the field much.  Even as a 2nd round pick, Moore is guaranteed absolutely nothing when it comes to his snap count.

So not to cop out, but I can't possibly set an O/U on Moore's yardage until we know where on the depth chart he'll fall and how many snaps he gets right out of the gates.  If he isn't a factor in the offense until Week 8 or so, then I'd set his O/U at something like 200 yards.  If we use a lot of 4-WR sets and/or Moore rises up the depth chart/snap count list early in the season, I'd put it at more like 400 yards.  

Interesting. I'm way more bullish on his role and usage. I get the sense he and Wilson have already connected and I think he'll be an early favorite.

You're 100% right that we won't really have any insight into what the depth chart is for awhile but I think Moore has abilities that pop relative to other WRs we have on the roster. I'm extremely confident he'll be worked into the offensive gameplans even if it's on more of an ad hoc basis early on and I think there's a very legitimate chance he's starting opening day.

I think relative to most rookies he's extremely polished as a route runner and his college production is unreal. I'd very confidently bet the over on 200 yards. Mims only played in 9 games in one of the worst passing offenses of all time and had 350... I think Moore fits the profile of a WR who adapts quickly.

[Untouchable]

Corey Davis

Corey Davis

Michael Carter 

Nick Mullens/Nick Foles

[PepPep]

Corey Davis is a BEAST. I think he will be the #1 targeted receiver and ends up leading the team in receptions and yards. 

Rushing yards is tougher to predict. All depend on who is the main starter. Could be anybody. My bet is Coleman if he stays healthy. 

[peebag]

Where's the Tim Tebow choice?

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Interesting. I'm way more bullish on his role and usage. I get the sense he and Wilson have already connected and I think he'll be an early favorite.

You're 100% right that we won't really have any insight into what the depth chart is for awhile but I think Moore has abilities that pop relative to other WRs we have on the roster. I'm extremely confident he'll be worked into the offensive gameplans even if it's on more of an ad hoc basis early on and I think there's a very legitimate chance he's starting opening day.

I think relative to most rookies he's extremely polished as a route runner and his college production is unreal. I'd very confidently bet the over on 200 yards. Mims only played in 9 games in one of the worst passing offenses of all time and had 350... I think Moore fits the profile of a WR who adapts quickly.

 

I definitely am optimistic about his future.  He could see an enormous leap from year 1 to 2.  I'm just playing the odds here.  And the odds say that rookie receivers tend to struggle and/or tend to see a lot fewer targets than their veteran counterparts until they get used to the pro game. 

Some guys develop/bust out quicker than others, however.  Just look at Justin Jefferson last year and A.J. Brown the year before.  So who knows, maybe Moore will be precocious like that and be a force right away?  I'd love nothing more than for the Jets to finally be the team that finds a WR who is awesome right out of the gates.  

Even if he doesn't produce at a big-time level statistically, he still could very well be very efficient with whatever targets he does get.  I really like what Corey Davis adds to the mix and am very bullish on Mims, so I think they'll each get a lot of targets.  But if we end up pass-heavy, and Wilson ends up the goods right away....why can't Moore get, say, 600 yards too?  There's just so many unknowns when you have a rookie HC with a new system, a rookie QB, and a lot of WR's in the WR room.  So I'll keep my expectations somewhat limited with Moore and patiently wait to see what we have in all of our receivers.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

Corey Davis is a BEAST. I think he will be the #1 targeted receiver and ends up leading the team in receptions and yards. 

Rushing yards is tougher to predict. All depend on who is the main starter. Could be anybody. My bet is Coleman if he stays healthy. 

I think @slats made a good point about Coleman:  He might be here primarily because of his pass blocking abilities.  Carter, and rookie RB's in general, rarely start out as 3-down backs right away because it takes time to get good at pass blocking.  Coleman, who is well aware of the system but really isn't a very effective RB at all (even in a system that suits him), is going to be crucial on passing downs where he's needed to block.  

If anyone is going to keep Carter from being the leading rusher, I would think its Ty Johnson, not Coleman.  Even if Coleman ends up the "starting RB" in week 1, I doubt he lasts long in that role, and will be no better than the 3rd leading rusher on the team by the end of the season.  

[PepPep]

58 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I think @slats made a good point about Coleman:  He might be here primarily because of his pass blocking abilities.  Carter, and rookie RB's in general, rarely start out as 3-down backs right away because it takes time to get good at pass blocking.  Coleman, who is well aware of the system but really isn't a very effective RB at all (even in a system that suits him), is going to be crucial on passing downs where he's needed to block.  

If anyone is going to keep Carter from being the leading rusher, I would think its Ty Johnson, not Coleman.  Even if Coleman ends up the "starting RB" in week 1, I doubt he lasts long in that role, and will be no better than the 3rd leading rusher on the team by the end of the season.  

Sure. Why not. I mean, this will be a RB by committee gameplan, I get that. But I really think touches will be up for grabs based on how these guys look in camp and preseason. Obviously I think the new coaches will want to see what they have in Perine and Carter. Johnson will be given a shot, there's no doubt. I don't really see Adams or any other back-end RB breaking through. Right now Coleman looks like the main vet back, even if he's here to pass block. But if he suddenly shows he's reborn (which we've definitely seen before), the Jets will roll with him, I have zero doubt in my mind.

But again, Ty will be given a legit shot and Carter is a very talented back who fits perfectly in this system. It would surprise me not if either one of them had breakout seasons.  

[NYJ1]

I wish I could say Davis and Mims would lead the way, but this early in a new offense common sense will tell you otherwise. If Crowder is on the team, he'll be the leader. In the running game the talent already on the Jets besides Devin Coleman is pretty much garbage. So my hope is Carter, barring injury becomes out main focus.

[Jetsfan80]

16 hours ago, PepPep said:

Sure. Why not. I mean, this will be a RB by committee gameplan, I get that. But I really think touches will be up for grabs based on how these guys look in camp and preseason. Obviously I think the new coaches will want to see what they have in Perine and Carter. Johnson will be given a shot, there's no doubt. I don't really see Adams or any other back-end RB breaking through. Right now Coleman looks like the main vet back, even if he's here to pass block. But if he suddenly shows he's reborn (which we've definitely seen before), the Jets will roll with him, I have zero doubt in my mind.

But again, Ty will be given a legit shot and Carter is a very talented back who fits perfectly in this system. It would surprise me not if either one of them had breakout seasons.  

 

For sure.  It'll be a full-on committee.  I could definitely see Coleman getting a ton of touches, especially early in the season.  I just don't think he'll be as effective with those touches as Carter and Johnson will be and will end up sliding down.  But you could be right, maybe a resurgence will happen.  I just doubt it.  @Paradis, whose opinion I trust with RB's almost implicitly at this point, hated the Coleman signing.

I don't think Perine will have much of a role, if at all, but again, we'll of course have to see how the new coaching staff feels about these guys, paying close attention to how the depth chart evolves, before making any accurate projections.