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What is funnier in this Panthers 1st day of mini camp article?


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17 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

"A couple weeks".  Exactly.  Just like Geno Smith once took home AFC Player of the Month honors.

A few games isn't enough.  Franchise QB's demonstrate consistency.  Sam Darnold's entire career comes off one Rose Bowl performance and the Packer game.  How about the other 50+ games he's appeared in from USC to now?

I understand what you are sayinig I just attribute his play to what he had - bad coach, bad plays and terrible surrounding cast. Sam all the while was showing off his natural ability rolling out before they took that away from him - dropping dimes because no one could get ope etc. I dont mean to say he played amazing I just think his talent is above average - and we wasted it.

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17 hours ago, doitny said:

i would not put too much stock on the praise that JD and Saleh had for Sam. people never say a guy sucks when they get rid of him. 

every GM thinks everyone they draft or sign is good. has tremendous talent. blah blah blah...

do you really think we would have taken Wilson over Trevor? or stuck with Sam if Wilson wasnt there? no.. of course not. but Wilson is our pick so he is the guy that JD and Saleh always wanted..lol 

same with Carolina. 

i went to there forum when they traded from Sam and nobody wanted Teddy. no joke there was one guy that wanted him. they had to get rid of Teddy. for Carolina its a low risk move. if hes good thats great for them. if he sucks thats great for them too. they get a high draft pick to get a QB.

i read somewhere that the Arizona GM  said good stuff about Rosen when he traded him to Miami. 

foe once it would be funny if GMs told the truth.

JD: cant believe i tricked Carolina into giving me a 2nd and other picks for Sam. i would have given them a 2nd just to get rid of him he sucks so bad..lol

 

that is true, good coaches and GM do not trash the guy. But that doesn't mean they didn't actually like him. Just like if Trevor was there sure we would have taken them, but if we picked three I think thye might have kept sam. 

lol your last statement - JD seems to do pretty good in trades and the Sam question as irrevelant as it is, I think it was a good move for both parties - I think JD wanted his own guy with own coach. But if circumstances were diff and sam was our starter this year - I dont think its a Rosen type player - Sam can play. I think he will prove in CAR. 

Im actually willing to bet on it if @jgbdidnt back out after I called him out on it.

 

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7 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

Didn't see anyone paying out to  your charity when you backed out of the bet.  I paid out your losing share to my charity since you weren't making the bet and I couldn't stand the thought of 10 year old refugees going without food due to your inability to back up your talk  with action.

Another member honorably stepped in to take your place and made the bet.  More power to him.

oh @jgbbacked out of another bet? interesting...maybe a theme with this guy

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6 hours ago, jgb said:

You can have the last word. I won't continue with this until you propose something worthy of a response. Otherwise I will just assume (correctly up to this point) is that you are afraid of betting on Darnold succeeding. Which is actually smart.

You also have the option of accepting a 10 win over on the Panthers, no other conditions, loopholes or qualifiers. See, I'm not insisting on Darnold starting all 10 games at all. The only reason I first suggested it is because you said you wanted this to be a Darnold bet. He kinda has to play for it to be that and Darnold missing time all three seasons with ailments ranging from the mysterious to the absurd is part of the case against him. You can pick the monetary stakes. No amount is too high because I will arbitrage it immediately if it's over a few hundred bucks. If it's over $500 I also want us both to put the money into escrow. Only fair for a bet this size with an anonymous internet person.

I tried to bet you on Darnold being above average and when i accepted you backed out too. Saying he needed to be the 16th best QB in the league. I think you maybe should stop betting people or trying to if you don't actually want to bet anyone. 

Dude you are talking about escrow - how bout just be a man of your word. I could be wrong, but at least for me I just thought it would be fun to make a bet on darnold being a good player this season. Im not trying to make money on you - this is Jet Nation just about proving my opinion is right and Sam is a good player and not the bum you make him out to be.

Best of luck to you.

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5 hours ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

oh @jgbbacked out of another bet? interesting...maybe a theme with this guy

You said you want to bet Darnold is above average next year. I suggested 16th or higher QBR (which was 67 in 2020, could be higher or lower in 2021, who knows). You know, reasonable.

Then came the wall of loopholes and excuses. You said you just “felt” 55 is average (25th in 2020) and want to bet Sam can exceed that (some confidence!) Well I actually agree Sam could be the 25th “best” QB in the league. How exactly do you bet on something both people agree with?

Pro tip: if you were as confident in your take on Sam as you say you are you wouldn’t have to sandbag the stats to provide a low bar for him to crawl over.

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A conversation with a Darnold defender.

DD: Darnold is the next Drew Brees.

ME: Haha! Wanna bet?

DD: Sure! If he scores more than 8 TDs, narrowly avoids a bottom 5 QBR, or I can think of a really good reason why it wasn’t Darnold’s fault if he doesn’t achieve even these lowly numbers, I win!! Oh and I want an out if he misses time with the mumps.

ME: Uh, no.

DD: Reneged! He reneged!

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15 minutes ago, jgb said:

A conversation with a Darnold defender.

DD: Darnold is the next Drew Brees.

ME: Haha! Wanna bet?

DD: Sure! If he scores more than 8 TDs, has a QBR ranked #25 or better, or I can think of a really good reason why it wasn’t Darnold’s fault he didn’t achieve even these lowly numbers, I win!! Oh and I want an out if he misses time with the mumps.

ME: Uh, no.

DD: Reneged! He reneged! 

A conversation with a Darnold detractor.              Q: Why was the o-line, WR group and running backs revamped.                                                     A: To give the QB a chance to succeed.              Q: Didn't Darnold need the same type of rebuild in order for him to succeed.                      A. Yea, but, ah, but, ah, statistics show if your bad, your bad.                                                           Q: Never mind.jtfp.gif.bae4dea2da19b2d42be55e2537407609.gif

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2 minutes ago, genot said:

A conversation with a Darnold detractor.              Q: Why was the o-line, WR group and running backs revamped.                                                     A: To give the QB a chance to succeed.              Q: Didn't Darnold need the same type of rebuild in order for him to succeed.                      A. Yea, but, ah, but, ah, statistics show if your bad, your bad.                                                           Q: Never mind.jtfp.gif.bae4dea2da19b2d42be55e2537407609.gif

And yet no Darnold defender can think of a single  way to test this theory. If you think he’s going to be good, why do I have zero takers on my proposal to bet he will fail to achieve even a mid-range QBR next year?

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Just now, jgb said:

And yet no Darnold defender can think of a single  way to test this theory. If you think he’s going to be good, why do I have zero takers on my proposal to bet he will have a mid-range QBR next year?

There is no way to know for sure. Either way. You have past history to hang your hat on. We don't. I believe at 23yrs old, considering his situation here, a large step forward would not be a surprise.

 

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7 minutes ago, genot said:

There is no way to know for sure. Either way. You have past history to hang your hat on. We don't. I believe at 23yrs old, considering his situation here, a large step forward would not be a surprise.

 

This is an honest take. I suspect all his defenders talk a big game but they basically feel the same. Hence all the gymnastics and legalese to try to weasel out of bets without just saying “You know what? I’m not confident enough in a turnaround to bet. But I still believe in him and think he has a shot. Let’s see what happens.”

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19 hours ago, jgb said:

You also have the option of accepting a 10 win over on the Panthers, no other conditions, loopholes or qualifiers.

Accepted.

 

Quote

You can pick the monetary stakes.

$25 to the American Red Cross if you win, or to the international Rescue Committee if I win.  The loser posts a pic of the contribution.

Additionally, even though the bet is 10 wins or more for the Panthers, if Darnold does not start at least 8 of those 10 wins I agree to send $25 to the American Red Cross or charity of your choice.

 

Deal?

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31 minutes ago, kelticwizard said:

Accepted.

 

$25 to the American Red Cross if you win, or to the international Rescue Committee if I win.  The loser posts a pic of the contribution.

Additionally, even though the bet is 10 wins or more for the Panthers, if Darnold does not start at least 8 of those 10 wins I agree to send $25 to the American Red Cross or charity of your choice.

 

Deal?

All you had to say is accepted. Done.

i don’t understand the condition you’re trying to add after accepting.

Panthers o/u 10 wins. You have the over. I have the under. 10 wins is a push. Loser pays $25 to the winner’s charity.

Yes I do feel the need to be unambiguous because I don’t want any weasel outs 6 months from now.

Now how about a Darnold bet? ? 

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7 hours ago, jgb said:

You said you want to bet Darnold is above average next year. I suggested 16th or higher QBR (which was 67 in 2020, could be higher or lower in 2021, who knows). You know, reasonable.

Then came the wall of loopholes and excuses. You said you just “felt” 55 is average (25th in 2020) and want to bet Sam can exceed that (some confidence!) Well I actually agree Sam could be the 25th “best” QB in the league. How exactly do you bet on something both people agree with?

Pro tip: if you were as confident in your take on Sam as you say you are you wouldn’t have to sandbag the stats to provide a low bar for him to crawl over.

you guys are going with the QBR rating? thats and ESPN rating. the RATE is the real one used by the NFL and NCAA.

after writing that i did some research and it looks like the QBR is a better rating. just doesnt feel like it cause the numbers are so low. i am so used to the over 100 Rate as the best rating. 

see the problem you might have with this is what if someone starts 4 games and is the 5th best in QBR. should he count? i dont think so. its not enough games to be fair. whats the over and under in games then? 

see one guy like that can turn the the #16 into 15... then 17 becomes 16. get it? 

i think you guys should just do TDs or yards. one set number and thats it.

either way we are still going to argue about sam no matter who wins the bet... lol

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

All you had to say is accepted. Done.

Well, I said more.  Whatcha gonna do 'bout it?

 

Quote

Panthers o/u 10 wins. You have the over. I have the under. 10 wins is a push. Loser pays $25 to the winner’s charity.

My proposed bet was 10 wins for the Panthers equals a win for me.  But no matter-I accept 10 wins is a push.  You finally chiselled it out of me.

 

Quote

i don’t understand the condition you’re trying to add after accepting.

Easy enough.  Unless Darnold wins 8 starts I don't  consider Darnold as doing enough to lead the team to 10 or more wins.  So I pay up to your charity.  It's my voluntary pledge.

 

Quote

Now how about a Darnold bet? ? 

We just made one.  Darnold wins 8 starts toward the Panthers winning 10 games, (push), or 11 or more games, (win for me). Charity bet, 25 clams.

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On 7/7/2021 at 1:15 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

The Office Yes GIF

 

Slight adjustment in our bet.  jgb just made the same bet with me as you except he chiselled out 10 Panthers win as a push.  Since I gave him that, and we're making the same bet,  I'm giving that to you as well.  You don't have to pay the International Relief Committee unless the Panthers win 11 games or more.

 

I like to be consistent in my bets.

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2 hours ago, doitny said:

you guys are going with the QBR rating? thats and ESPN rating. the RATE is the real one used by the NFL and NCAA.

after writing that i did some research and it looks like the QBR is a better rating. just doesnt feel like it cause the numbers are so low. i am so used to the over 100 Rate as the best rating. 

see the problem you might have with this is what if someone starts 4 games and is the 5th best in QBR. should he count? i dont think so. its not enough games to be fair. whats the over and under in games then? 

see one guy like that can turn the the #16 into 15... then 17 becomes 16. get it? 

i think you guys should just do TDs or yards. one set number and thats it.

either way we are still going to argue about sam no matter who wins the bet... lol

I will accept passer rating or QBR and will consider any recognized statistic that someone wants to bet on Darnold to exceed league average play (top 16) in 2021. So far there are no takers despite an extremely vocal cheering section for Darnold to become the next Tannehill or Drew Brees that was only held back by Jets weipnz. Carolina has the #1 or #2 RB in the league and it will be the first time Darnold ever played with a 1,000 yard+ receiver. And at Carolina he'll have two. Why does the confidence wilt as soon as we start talking numbers?

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2 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

Well, I said more.  Whatcha gonna do 'bout it?

 

I ignored it. You already accepted the o/u

Quote

 

My proposed bet was 10 wins for the Panthers equals a win for me.  But no matter-I accept 10 wins is a push.  You finally chiselled it out of me.

That's how an over/under bet works. You said 10, not 9.5. Happy to make a Darnold bet as well. Passer rating or QBR will Darnold be top 16 (above league average. But I'm not into dental surgery with you today and don't want to negotiate a bet with more riders and provisios than a life insurance policy.

Quote

 

Easy enough.  Unless Darnold wins 8 starts I don't  consider Darnold as doing enough to lead the team to 10 or more wins.  So I pay up to your charity.  It's my voluntary pledge.

What you think about Darnold is irrelevent. This is a Panthers bet not a Darnold bet.

Quote

We just made one.  Darnold wins 8 starts toward the Panthers winning 10 games, (push), or 11 or more games, (win for me). Charity bet, 25 clams.

Jesus Christ. No. You quoted and accepted: "You also have the option of accepting a 10 win over on the Panthers, no other conditions, loopholes or qualifiers. "

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6 hours ago, doitny said:

you guys are going with the QBR rating? thats and ESPN rating. the RATE is the real one used by the NFL and NCAA.

after writing that i did some research and it looks like the QBR is a better rating. just doesnt feel like it cause the numbers are so low. i am so used to the over 100 Rate as the best rating. 

see the problem you might have with this is what if someone starts 4 games and is the 5th best in QBR. should he count? i dont think so. its not enough games to be fair. whats the over and under in games then? 

see one guy like that can turn the the #16 into 15... then 17 becomes 16. get it? 

i think you guys should just do TDs or yards. one set number and thats it.

either way we are still going to argue about sam no matter who wins the bet... lol

QBR is an exclusive ESPN compilation stat and they refuse to release the formula they use to come up with it. That’s the main reason I never use it. How can you discuss the merits of the evaluation process if you don’t know how it’s done? The one thing I noticed is that it seems to weigh QB rushing stats in pretty heavily, which favors QBs like Allen, Jackson, and Murray, but hurts a guy like Brady. That’s another reason I don’t like it. I prefer view a QB’s rushing and passing separately. I also think most coaches would prefer that their QBs to develop into throwers more than runners. But a young QB who rushes for 800 yards instead gets rewarded statistically as a more “total QB”? 
 
Bleh. 

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24 minutes ago, slats said:

QBR is an exclusive ESPN compilation stat and they refuse to release the formula they use to come up with it. That’s the main reason I never use it. How can you discuss the merits of the evaluation process if you don’t know how it’s done? The one thing I noticed is that it seems to weigh QB rushing stats in pretty heavily, which favors QBs like Allen, Jackson, and Murray, but hurts a guy like Brady. That’s another reason I don’t like it. I prefer view a QB’s rushing and passing separately. I also think most coaches would prefer that their QBs to develop into throwers more than runners. But a young QB who rushes for 800 yards instead gets rewarded statistically as a more “total QB”? 
 
Bleh. 

So that's why QBR isn't available for historical seasons on sites like pro-football-reference.com. Because they don't have the formula to apply retroactively. Interesting. Thanks.

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43 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

No one believes in Darnold except for a few strange Jet fans who are obsessed with him.

Even in fantasy football he is ranked below Zach wilson who has never taken an nfl snap.  HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHA

 

Until they risk having to change their signature if they are wrong. That shows you that the mouth is way ahead of the confidence.

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12 hours ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:
19 hours ago, jgb said:

 Otherwise I will just assume (correctly up to this point) is that you are afraid of betting on Darnold succeeding. Which is actually smart.

The only reason I first suggested it is because you said you wanted this to be a Darnold bet.

You can pick the monetary stakes. No amount is too high because I will arbitrage it immediately if it's over a few hundred bucks.

If it's over $500 I also want us both to put the money into escrow. Only fair for a bet this size with an anonymous internet person.

I tried to bet you on Darnold being above average and when i accepted you backed out too. Saying he needed to be the 16th best QB in the league. I think you maybe should stop betting people or trying to if you don't actually want to bet anyone. 

Dude you are talking about escrow - how bout just be a man of your word. I could be wrong, but at least for me I just thought it would be fun to make a bet on darnold being a good player this season. Im not trying to make money on you - this is Jet Nation just about proving my opinion is right and Sam is a good player and not the bum you make him out to be.

Best of luck to you.

 

How does one "arbitrage" their own bet?

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Dollar Bill said:

 

How does one "arbitrage" their own bet?

 

 

Bet $1,000 on UNDER Panthers 10 wins here with a Darnoid. Then go bet $1,000 on the OVER with Vegas (currently 6.5 wins). Can't lose (yes, I know there's a vig, I'm simplifying) and have a chance to win both bets.

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7 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

 

Slight adjustment in our bet.  jgb just made the same bet with me as you except he chiselled out 10 Panthers win as a push.  Since I gave him that, and we're making the same bet,  I'm giving that to you as well.  You don't have to pay the International Relief Committee unless the Panthers win 11 games or more.

The International Relief Committee need not budget for that $25!

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6 minutes ago, Dollar Bill said:

That's called a "hedge"...

We're both right. It's both. Arbitrage betting is a sub-set of hedging.

***

Arbitrage Definition

An arbitrage in sports betting is when a bettor makes multiple bets on the same event to guarantee a profit no matter the result. It’s usually a result of different sportsbooks offering different odds on the same event.

Arbitrage is a form of hedging, but the true definition requires bettors to place their arbitrage bets at the same time.

Here are three common examples of arbitrage.

Arbitrage Examples

1. Two books are offering different prices on a game at the same time, so you bet both to guarantee a profit or at least break-even.

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The 5 O'Clock Club: The difference between passer rating and quarterback rating - Hogs Haven

@slats @jgb

found this but it is confusing to me. i only know basic math lol

 

Quarterback rating (QBR)

Surprisingly, the best detailed explanation of quarterback rating and passer rating that I could find was from Wikipedia.

Raw QBR is calculated as the following:

 

temp_QBR_formula.jpg

where g() is a function that scales from 0-100, where 50 is average. Total QBR is the raw QBR adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

EPA is calculated based on the down, distance, and the yard line at snap, with each combination having its own point value. The point values are the average net point advantage the team on offense can expect given the particular down, distance, and field position. For example, a 1st and goal chance on the opponent’s’ 1 yard line heavily favors the offense, yielding a positive point value. On the other hand, a 3rd and 9 on the team’s own 3 yard line is heavily negative because it drastically favors the opponent.

The value of each play’s outcome is measured by the snap-to-snap change in expected points. This is called Expected Points Added. The Expected Points Added (or lost) in each play are divided among the contributing players on the field based on the role of each player and the type of play. Deeper throws give a higher share of credit to the QB, while screen passes give relatively less credit to the QB and more to the receiver.

Plays that occur in “trash time” are discounted by as much as 30%. Trash time is measured based on the leverage of each play which is primarily a function of score, time, and field position. Important, critical plays that are likely to change the outcome have high leverage, while plays that occur after the game has largely been already decided have low leverage. QBR discounts low leverage plays, but does not boost credit for “clutch” plays.

After each play’s Expected Points Added is adjusted for difficulty, division of credit, and trash time, it is averaged on a per play basis. This average is further adjusted to account for the strength of opponent. Performance against a stronger defense that tends to allow low adjusted EPA per play is adjusted upwards while performance against a weaker defense is adjusted downwards. The degree of adjustment is in direct proportion to the strength of the opponent.

Lastly, the resulting adjusted EPA per play is transformed to a 0 to 100 scale, where 50 is average. The result can be thought of as a percentile. For example, a QBR of 80 means that the QB’s performance is better than 80% of the game performances by QB’s since 2006. A game QBR of 80 would also mean that, given that QB’s performance, his team would be expected to win that game on average 80% of the time.[5]

Think of QBR as an attempt to rate a quarterback by difficulty. A quarterback gets more credit for success in more difficult situations, and less credit for success in less difficult situations. It tries to reward QBs for making the clutch throws downfield versus an easy swing pass on second down.

It’s a 0 to 100 scale, where 50 should represent the true middle point, meaning those quarterbacks above 50 should be winning more games than those below 50. The nearer to 100 a QB is, the more ‘elite’ he should be.

Passer Rating

Passer Rating is the official NFL measure of quarterback performance, and its calculation is much simpler than the QBR, as it depends only on aggregate statistics rather than an analysis of each play a quarterback is involved in. Additionally, passer rating double counts completion percentage, favoring quarterbacks who tend to throw screens and other short passes. Passer rating is calculated using each quarterback’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions, and has a maximum value of 158.3 and minimum value of 0.

Passer rating ignores large parts of a quarterback’s performance. It ignores sacks, fumbles, designed runs and scrambles. It also does not put plays into any context. For example, while the QBR treats a 5-yard gain on second-and-5 as very different from a 5-yard gain on third-and-10, passer rating treats all yards, whether they are air yards or yards after catch, as equal, and belonging to the QB.

The NFL passer rating formula includes four variables: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. Each of those variables is scaled to a value between 0 and 2.375, with 1.0 being statistically average (based on league data between 1960–1970). When the formula was first created, a 66.7 rating indicated an average performance, and a 100+ rating indicated an excellent performance.[3] However, passing performance has improved steadily since then and in 2017 the league average rating was 88.6.

 

temp_passer_rating_formula.jpg

The key here is that all plays are treated equally by the passer rating formula. There is no attempt to make one play more or less important than another. It also focuses on passing statistics, excluding plays a quarterback makes as a runner, or other non-passing measures.

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14 hours ago, jgb said:

What you think about Darnold is irrelevent. This is a Panthers bet not a Darnold bet.

It's a Darnold bet if I pay out $25 to your charity, the American Red Cross, if Darnold doesn't win 8 starts in a 10 win Panthers season.

I've already declared it, and there is nothing you can do to stop it.  Only Darnold and the Panthers can stop it by winning 8 starts and 10 or more games respectively.

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2 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

It's a Darnold bet if I pay out $25 to your charity, the American Red Cross, if Darnold doesn't win 8 starts in a 10 win Panthers season.

I've already declared it, and there is nothing you can do to stop it.  Only Darnold and the Panthers can stop it by winning 8 starts and 10 or more games respectively.


What the Hell are you talking about?

 

49D7A2AB-0735-484C-A1B9-738080F545F2.jpeg

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I am talking about the bet is a Darnold bet since I've declared, in addition to the Panthers winning at least 10 games to tie or 11 or more to win, that if at least 8 of Darnold's starts are not wins in addition to the team winning 10 or more games, I will pay your declared charity $25. 

 

What are you going to do to stop me-sue the Red Cross on the grounds that they don't deserve the money because you feel it wasn't part of the bet?

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9 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

I am talking about the bet is a Darnold bet since I've declared, in addition to the Panthers winning at least 10 games to tie or 11 or more to win, that if at least 8 of Darnold's starts are not wins in addition to the team winning 10 or more games, I will pay your declared charity $25. 

 

What are you going to do to stop me-sue the Red Cross on the grounds that they don't deserve the money because you feel it wasn't part of the bet?

So you accepted then tried to add conditions after the acceptance. Dastardly. Seems your dad never gave you the speech on what it means to be a man. "A bet's a bet, son. When you lose, you pay. If the other guy backs out or won't pay, you know everything there is to know about him. Not worth your time." Well, I got that talk.

 

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 Pro Football Focus has the Panthers offensive line ranked No. 31 in the league. ESPN is projecting that their pass block win rate is only going to be 56%, which would rank No. 27.

HAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.  Can u imagine what Saleh is going to dial up for Sammy week 1?  My goodness.  He is going to get hit, sacked, and will fumble and throw picks as well.  It will be a bloodbath for him.

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On 7/7/2021 at 1:24 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes, they count as sacks.  Last season in Week 1, there was a play where he literally ran out of bounds behind the LOS, taking a sack and a loss of yardage, rather than simply throwing the ball away for no lost yardage. 

Darnold is a slow processor and a simpleton doofus.  Those guys never, ever end up successful QB's unless, perhaps, they are physically gifted in ways other QB's aren't.  Darnold isn't in that category.  He's very much the same kind of guy we've seen before in a Jet uniform in the form of Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith.  Yet some Jets fans never seem to learn....

Your right it is VERY RARE,  But..............

ed82b3e3572c50589d0fb45204f9c937_xl.jpg

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