Not like last years team with Gase

[JustInFudge]

57 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Who gives a f**k?  That's the price he had to play when doing what he did in the NFL at the time (air it out, while DB's could suplex the receivers), and he won a f**king Super Bowl.  Insanity, dude.  

 If Zach Wilson has 50 more INT's then TD's, I assure you that will give a sh*t.  Liar.

Era?  Really, you dumb sh*t. You're going there?   Sonny Jurgensen and Johnny Unitas who played before and during Namath's time, has 70 more TD's then INT's.   These are guys who threw it more and more successfully.  The both, have seasons with 30+ TD's during that era.   Namath cracked 20 once.  One ******* time.  One time in his entire overrated career Namath threw 20+ TDs while these dudes, who played during the same time, were throwing 30 and taking care of the ball like a QB should.  

GTFO here w/ this garbage or step up your game. 

 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And I absolutely can use 1 game for my argument. 

Joe Namath in a playoff loss:

14-40, 35% comp, 164 yards and 0 TD's and 3 INT's.

GFY

YOU SUCK SO BAD AT THIS 

 

[Savage69]

15 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

 If Zach Wilson has 50 more INT's then TD's, I assure you that will give a sh*t.  Liar.

Era?  Really, you dumb sh*t. You're going there?   Sonny Jurgensen and Johnny Unitas who played before and during Namath's time, has 70 more TD's then INT's.   These are guys who threw it more and more successfully.  The both, have seasons with 30+ TD's during that era.   Namath cracked 20 once.  One ******* time.  One time in his entire overrated career Namath threw 20+ TDs while these dudes, who played during the same time, were throwing 30 and taking care of the ball like a QB should.  

GTFO here w/ this garbage or step up your game. 

 

You do realize the rules were not changed till 1978 that favored the offence?? Elway in the new era never threw for 30 td's and had a 4,000 yd season just once.. Name all the QB's that had 30+ td's in Joe's era.. One thing we can agree on the gunslinger in Joe was a determent to his game.. Johnny U did it once and Sonny did it twice but the were on better teams and healthy longer then Joe..

[Jimmy 2 Times]

Joe was before my time, but I've read quite a few times that he hurt the team just as much as he helped.  He was a big reason why the Jets won it all, but he was the bigger reason why they didn't win a few championships.  He just couldn't stop forcing the ball into tight spots.  

Maybe being hung over every Sunday caused poor judgment?  

They guy put himself before the team in a lot of shameful ways.  

The 1960's version of Jamal Adams and 80 would probably crucify him on this board if he played today.    

[Jetsfan80]

17 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Joe Namath in a playoff loss:

14-40, 35% comp, 164 yards and 0 TD's and 3 INT's.

GFY

YOU SUCK SO BAD AT THIS 

 

He won a f**king Super Bowl you blasphemous tool.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

Joe was before my time, but I've read quite a few times that he hurt the team just as much as he helped.  He was a big reason why the Jets won it all, but he was the bigger reason why they didn't win a few championships.  He just couldn't stop forcing the ball into tight spots.  

Maybe being hung over every Sunday caused poor judgment?  

They guy put himself before the team in a lot of shameful ways.  

The 1960's version of Jamal Adams and 80 would probably crucify him on this board if he played today.    

He won a Super Bowl.  Something this franchise hasn't had in 50+ years.  I wouldn't care what he did to "cost" the team others.  

[Jetsfan80]

JiF actually thinks Curtis Martin > Joe Namath and I'm the only one who's going to bother to argue him on this one?

GFY as well, all of JN.  

[Jetsfan80]

26 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

 If Zach Wilson has 50 more INT's then TD's, I assure you that will give a sh*t.  Liar.

Era?  Really, you dumb sh*t. You're going there?   Sonny Jurgensen and Johnny Unitas who played before and during Namath's time, has 70 more TD's then INT's.   These are guys who threw it more and more successfully.  The both, have seasons with 30+ TD's during that era.   Namath cracked 20 once.  One ******* time.  One time in his entire overrated career Namath threw 20+ TDs while these dudes, who played during the same time, were throwing 30 and taking care of the ball like a QB should.  

GTFO here w/ this garbage or step up your game. 

 

 

Just because Namath wasn't on the level of Unitas and Jurgensen doesn't mean he's lower on the Jets all-time list than Curtis Martin.  Curtis Martin was a f**king RB and only a very good one for a long time, not really close to being an all-time great.

If you want to say Namath wasn't # 1, fine.  Maynard for sure has a great argument.  But behind Martin?  You love Curtis and that's great, but he isn't in the top 3.  He just isn't.  And your love of him shouldn't come at the expense of Joe Namath.  

You GTFO. 

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

You do realize the rules were not changed till 1978 that favored the offence?? Elway in the new era never threw for 30 td's and had a 4,000 yd season just once.. Name all the QB's that had 30+ td's in Joe's era.. One thing we can agree on the gunslinger in Joe was a determent to his game.. 

You do realize that guys were throwing for 30+ long before the rule change?  

Unitas threw for 32 in 1959.  YA Tittle did it twice, 62 and 63.  Sonny did it in 61 and 67, so did Blanda.  Len Dawson, Daryle Lominca did it twice, John Brodie led the league w/ 30, Babe Parilli led the league with 31 in 64.

The only year Namath led the NFL in TD's, he threw a whopping 19!!!!!!

[JustInFudge]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He won a f**king Super Bowl you blasphemous tool.

Matt Snell and the D won that Super Bowl, you disgusting pig.  

Martin played in a Super Bowl and played in 9 more playoff games in a shorter career.  

lmfao - you're terrible at this

[JustInFudge]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Just because Namath wasn't on the level of Unitas and Jurgensen doesn't mean he's lower on the Jets all-time list than Curtis Martin.  

You GTFO.  

Mark Sanchez could have handed off to Matt Snell 31 times and won....

[JustInFudge]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

JiF actually thinks Curtis Martin > Joe Namath and I'm the only one who's going to bother to argue him on this one?

GFY as well, all of JN.  

Bow down to your master.

I win.

Again.

[Savage69]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

JiF actually thinks Curtis Martin > Joe Namath and I'm the only one who's going to bother to argue him on this one?

GFY as well, all of JN.  

Jif is young the funny thing is Cumar before getting his old college coach as his OC in 2001 was under 4 ypc for half of his first 6 years in the league, with Hackett he was over 4 except for his last year. If Martin didn't have  a contract that made him impossible to move he would have left when the Tuna took over the Cowboys just like he left the Pats with his poison pill contract that he did with Parcells..

[Savage69]

6 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Matt Snell and the D won that Super Bowl, you disgusting pig.  

Martin played in a Super Bowl and played in 9 more playoff games in a shorter career.  

lmfao - you're terrible at this

On the bolded I agree Matt and the D played lights out.. Martin was durable but without Hackett's being his OC I doubt he would have made the HOF..

[Maynard13]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Right, but Joe Namath won a Super Bowl at the most important position in this team sport.  It's not apples and oranges.  It's a CEO vs. a regional manager.  The CEO is the more important and more difficult job, so the one that had more success is greater.

Joe Willie was beyond special. I had the privilige of seeing him in his prime. While I was just 12. I knew I was watching something exceptionally unique. I saw Jurgenson, Starr and other great QB's in that era. Namath was a superstar and only his injuries held him back from further greatness.  As far as Martin is  concerned, he was a RB which is obviously, as any other position, a complimentary position to QB. But he was truly great on many levels. Overall, Martin played longer and was more succesful than Namath on many levels. No he didnt win a SB but overall he was incredibly resilient and one of the top RB's ever in NFL history.  RB is just one of those positions that never really dominates and results into being as 'important' to a teams overall sucess unless it was Jim Brown and there was only one Jim Brown. Unfortunately, Martin never really played with a great QB.  

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

On the bolded I agree Matt and the D played lights out.. Martin was durable but without Hackett's being his OC I doubt he would have made the HOF..

He played for Hackett, what, 4 out of 10 seasons?   He was just as good under Weiss and Perkins. 

[Savage69]

4 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Joe Willie was beyond special. I had the privilige of seeing him in his prime. While I was just 12. I knew I was watching something exceptionally unique. I saw Jurgenson, Starr and other great QB's in that era. Namath was a superstar and only his injuries held him back from further greatness.  As far as Martin is  concerned, he was a RB which is obviously, as any other position, a complimentary position to QB. But he was truly great on many levels. Overall, Martin played longer and was more succesful than Namath on many levels. No he didnt win a SB but overall he was incredibly resilient and one of the top RB's ever in NFL history.  RB is just one of those positions that never really dominates and results into being as 'important' to a teams overall sucess unless it was Jim Brown and there was only one Jim Brown. Unfortunately, Martin never really played with a great QB.  

He never made a All decade team like Terrell Davis who WAS the reason the Bronco's won 2 bowls.. And I saw all the great QB's as well since I'm the same age as Joe..

[jgb]

53 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

JiF actually thinks Curtis Martin > Joe Namath and I'm the only one who's going to bother to argue him on this one?

GFY as well, all of JN.  

Namath was more valuable and more important to his team -- which won the Jets only championship -- than Martin was on any Jets team during his tenure, including the AFC Championship run and his year leading the league in yards. You don't even need to consider Namath's influence on the sport -- of which he remains a bloody icon -- to give him the easy win here. "He should've won more" is an argument that doesn't warrant a substantive retort until Martin un-retires and wins at least one ring with the Jets. If anyone interprets this as slam on CMart -- who I have defended here more times than I can count, which also shouldn't be necessary -- sorry not sorry.

The only reason I didn't jump in is because quite frankly I was morbidly fascinated by how quickly this escalated lol. I've fought the fight over how our fan base treats its best players for years generally alone and you seemed to be doing just fine. Didn't want to steal any meat from your fresh kill but if you're offering to share, I'll take a leg.  

[Maynard13]

5 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

He never made a All decade team like Terrell Davis who WAS the reason the Bronco's won 2 bowls.. And I saw all the great QB's as well since I'm the same age as Joe..

Yippiety dippity do. IMO, for a period of time, no QB was better than Namath. It’s a shame he played in a prehistoric era where knee injuries just ended careers. In a documentary, even before he began playing for the Jets, he was predicted to only play for 4 years by the top surgeon in the mid 60’s. And Namath was ecstatic by that! 

[Savage69]

6 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

He played for Hackett, what, 4 out of 10 seasons?   He was just as good under Weiss and Perkins. 

His only season that he won the rushing title he needed Holmes to be hurt and have 2 overtime games to win by 1 yd..LOL  Shaun Alexander wanted to get back in the game they were playing but Holmgren sat him down.. He always needed the most carries in order to compile.. And he was better under Hackett because he got better calls from him that got easy yardage..

[Savage69]

6 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Yippiety dippity do. IMO, for a period of time, no QB was better than Namath. It’s a shame he played in a prehistoric era where knee injuries just ended careers. In a documentary, even before he began playing for the Jets, he was predicted to only play for 4 years by the top surgeon in the mid 60’s. And Namath was ecstatic by that! 

You do realize Joe is my favorite player?? I agree he was given 3 or 4 years I think that may have had a effect on his mindset. Joe also was a party animal which was the case for many of us in the 60's that didn't help him with his stats.. A clean living Joe with good legs with todays rules would have been fun to see..

[JustInFudge]

5 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

His only season that he won the rushing title he needed Holmes to be hurt and have 2 overtime games to win by 1 yd..LOL  Shaun Alexander wanted to get back in the game they were playing but Holmgren sat him down.. He always needed the most carries in order to compile.. And he was better under Hackett because he got better calls from him that got easy yardage..

None of this has anything to do with anything. 

He was just as good under Weiss and Perkins as he was under Hackett.  

The only reason Namath won a Super Bowl was because Unitas was hurt that year.  See there, I can play the stupid game too.

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, Savage69 said:

You do realize Joe is my favorite player?? I agree he was given 3 or 4 years I think that may have had a effect on his mindset. Joe also was a party animal which was the case for many of us in the 60's that didn't help him with his stats.. A clean living Joe with good legs with todays rules would have been fun to see..

So in conclusion: if Joe Namath wasnt a drunken broken down loser, he would have compiled better stats.

 

[Maynard13]

2 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

You do realize Joe is my favorite player?? I agree he was given 3 or 4 years I think that may have had a effect on his mindset. Joe also was a party animal which was the case for many of us in the 60's that didn't help him with his stats.. A clean living Joe with good legs with todays rules would have been fun to see..

He didn’t do to bad for himself. Greatest game I ever saw was his battle vs. Johnny U where they both threw for nearly 900 yards combined. Amazing.

[Maynard13]

1 hour ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

Joe was before my time, but I've read quite a few times that he hurt the team just as much as he helped.  He was a big reason why the Jets won it all, but he was the bigger reason why they didn't win a few championships.  He just couldn't stop forcing the ball into tight spots.  

Maybe being hung over every Sunday caused poor judgment?  

They guy put himself before the team in a lot of shameful ways.  

The 1960's version of Jamal Adams and 80 would probably crucify him on this board if he played today.    

Jimmy Jimmy Jimmy 3X ?

[Savage69]

1 minute ago, Maynard13 said:

He didn’t do to bad for himself. Greatest game I ever saw was his battle vs. Johnny U where they both threw for nearly 900 yards combined. Amazing.

1972 I remember it well Caster had 3 td's and Riggens,Maynard and little Eddie Bell had the others.. That was Maynard's last year as a Jet..

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, JiFapono said:

Matt Snell and the D won that Super Bowl, you disgusting pig.  

Martin played in a Super Bowl and played in 9 more playoff games in a shorter career.  

lmfao - you're terrible at this

lmfao you think a great (debatable) RB > great QB who won a SB MVP.  

[SouthernJet]

14 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

How about the first year with Gase? Bowles?

Gase 1st year? Horrible. The offense was so damn vanilla you cpould see the defense lining up where ball was going because we fans knew where it was going also. He has zero personality and camp was sort of lifeless from players as I was there ON FIELD for a few days and like OP said there wasnt any urgency or excitemment

[JustInFudge]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

lmfao you think a great (debatable) RB > great QB who won a SB MVP.  

Honestly?  I could not give 2 sh*ts about this argument.  It's stupid and I cant believe you keep responding to my obvious troll job.  Shocked this is still going, 2 totally different players, who played totally different positions, in totally different eras. Apples to oranges. 

I was just trying to trigger Savage on one of our favorites topics because I knew he'd start up his moronic "compiler" argument while trying to prop up a player in Joe Namath who "would have had better stats" if not for all the reasons that he uses to knock Martin.  lmfao  It's great and you ruined it, like usual. 

 

[jeremy2020]

7 minutes ago, SouthernJet said:

Gase 1st year? Horrible. The offense was so damn vanilla you cpould see the defense lining up where ball was going because we fans knew where it was going also. He has zero personality and camp was sort of lifeless from players as I was there ON FIELD for a few days and like OP said there wasnt any urgency or excitemment

Yes, but much of this forum thought he was an offensive genius at that time and not the same type of offensive genius they think he is now. 

[#27TheDominator]

4 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Honestly?  I could not give 2 sh*ts about this argument.  It's stupid and I cant believe you keep responding to my obvious troll job.  Shocked this is still going, 2 totally different players, who played totally different positions, in totally different eras. Apples to oranges. 

I was just trying to trigger Savage on one of our favorites topics because I knew he'd start up his moronic "compiler" argument while trying to prop up a player in Joe Namath who "would have had better stats" if not for all the reasons that he uses to knock Martin.  lmfao  It's great and you ruined it, like usual. 

 

This is what makes JN great.  We know our roles. 

[AL047]

14 hours ago, Maxman said:

Great post.

On another topic, is the ambulance in the avatar yours? Pretty cool.

No a couple years back it was the Jets vs Bills (Rex was coaching), I went with my brother in law and saw the ambulance tailgating. It was amazing seeing it

[SouthernJet]

13 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

Yes, but much of this forum thought he was an offensive genius at that time and not the same type of offensive genius they think he is now. 

and that boggles me as this article was written nationally and distributed here BEFORE Gase ever coached one Jet game. I sent to several Jet beat writers via DM and talked to 1 or 2 about article at camp and they kind of gave me feeling they agreed and were ready for crap but knew they had to be optimistic so early in tenure.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2837130-stats-dont-lie-adam-gase-is-the-wrong-coach-for-sam-darnold-and-the-jets

Stats Don't Lie: Adam Gase Is the Wrong Coach for Sam Darnold and the Jets

MIKE TANIERMAY 23, 2019

 

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

It's 3rd-and-10. Is your quarterback throwing a five-yard pass? And are you happy about it?

If so, there's a chance you may be Adam Gase.

Gase has been making a lot of news in recent weeks, but let's set aside the new Jets head coach's penchant for Shakespearean boardroom power plays or the passive-aggressive negging of Le'Veon Bell, which already appears to be underway. Gase's primary objective is to develop Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowl-caliber franchise quarterback. If he does that, no one will care about what happened this offseason. If he doesn't, being Mr. Congeniality to his co-workers won't save him in the long run.

A deep dive into Gase's record in three seasons as the Dolphins head coach and offensive architect revealed he may not be the right coach to develop Darnold—or any young quarterback.

The problem is easy to summarize: Gase's system threatens to choke out Darnold's potential by ordering him to throw too many too-short passes.

   

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Gaming the ratings

It doesn't take a degree in mathematics to figure out just how mediocre the Dolphins offense was in three years under Gase.

The Dolphins ranked 24th in the NFL in yards and 17th in points during their 2016 wild-card season. They then dipped to 25th in yards and 28th in points in 2017 (when Jay Cutler was coaxed out of the broadcast booth to replace the injured Ryan Tannehill) and 31st and 26th last year (when Brock Osweiler replaced the injured Tannehill for a handful of midseason games).

But while the Dolphins' seasonwide offensive totals were generally bad, the individual passing results of Miami quarterbacks were usually acceptable. Tannehill ranked 12th in the NFL in passer rating (93.5) in 2016 and 20th (92.7) last year; Cutler ranked 23rd (80.8) in 2017.

Those figures aren't great, but they don't point to passing efficiency as a major problem for Gase's offenses. Tannehill had a higher passer rating last year than Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum and others; his rating was 15.1 points higher than Darnold's rating of 77.6.

If you have read this far into a statistical article about Adam Gase, you don't need to be told passer rating is an outdated, poorly designed measure of quarterback performance. Tannehill drops all the way to 32nd in the NFL in 2018, between Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen, when we switch to ESPN's QBR. Tannehill also drops to 32nd last year when we use Football Outsiders' DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average. Even when Tannehill led the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2016, he ranked 25th in DVOA and 24th in QBR.

 

The discrepancy between advanced metrics like DVOA and QBR and basic stats is telling. Something made the raw passing stats for Dolphins quarterbacks look half decent for the last three years, even when those quarterbacks were playing poorly and limiting the offense.

That "something" was Gase's love of the short pass in long-yardage situations.

   

2nd-and-wrong, 3rd-and-wrong

Let's use the Football Outsiders premium database to drill deeper into Gase's play-calling tendencies. Specifically, we'll focus on two very important game situations: 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long. "Long" means seven-plus yards in both situations:

• 2016: The Dolphins offense ranked 26th on 2nd-and-long and 14th on 3rd-and-long.
• 2017: The Dolphins offense ranked 32nd in 2nd-and-long and 26th on 3rd-and-long.
• 2018: The Dolphins offense ranked 31st on 2nd-and-long and 28th on 3rd-and-long.

Three years, only one ranking (barely) above league average in long-yardage situations, the rest well below average and an overall downward trend. That's not a good look for Gase's situational play calling.

 

If you were looking for a quarterback to complete a good percentage of his third-down throws without achieving the first-down payoff most teams desire, you couldn't have done much better in recent years than Ryan Tannehill.Darron Cummings/Associated Press/Associated Press

Those rankings are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, which assigns a weight to every single play executed in a given situation, based on how much (or little) the result of that play increases (or decreases) a team's chance of winning.

One thing DVOA excels at is removing the fluff from raw statistics. The system rewards, say, two-yard runs on 3rd-and-1 but provides only tiny rewards for 10-yard passes on 3rd-and-15. Passer rating and final stat totals can be fooled by dump-offs that lead directly to punts, but DVOA cannot. That's an important point to keep in mind considering the somewhat rosy picture traditional numbers can paint.

According to Pro Football Reference, Tannehill completed 36 of 55 passes on 2nd-and-long (65.5 percent) for 375 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in 2018. Superficially, those are solid numbers. On 3rd-and-long, he was 24-of-45 (53.3 percent) with 287 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions: weak but not terrible in situations wherein leaguewide completion rates dip and interception rates increase.

 

Cutler's raw numbers in 2017 long-yardage situations are slightly better than Tannehill's in 2018: a 69.7 percent completion rate (62-of-89) on 2nd-and-long and a 56.3 percent rate (36-of-64) on 3rd-and-long.

Even Osweiler's long-yardage raw stats look good. Suspiciously good. Osweiler completed 63.6 percent (21-of-33) of his 2nd-and-long passes and a whopping 77.3 percent (17-of-22) of his 3rd-and-long passes last year.

You may recall Osweiler played fairly well against the Bears and Lions before reverting back to stumblebum mode. But no, he didn't become Drew Brees on 3rd-and-long.

Instead, Osweiler did what Cutler and Tannehill did in high-leverage situations in Gase's offense: He padded his stats with lots of failed completions.

   

Failing forward

The folks at Football Outsiders have been tracking "failed completions" for years. You can read the precise definition at the top of Bryan Knowles' article, but most fans know a failed completion when they see one: It's the two-yard pass in the flat on first down, the four-yarder on 2nd-and-10 and even the 14-yarder on 3rd-and-15.

Under Gase's watch, Dolphins quarterbacks threw lots and lots of failed completions:

• 29.5 percent of Tannehill's completions last year were failed completions, ranking him 32nd among qualifying quarterbacks. Failed completions accounted for 16.7 percent of his total pass attempts, which ranked 29th.
• 28.1 percent of Cutler's completions and 17.4 percent of his attempts in 2017 were failed completions. Both figures ranked 25th among eligible quarterbacks.
• 29.9 percent of Tannehill's completions (31st) and 20.2 percent of his attempts (31st) were failed completions during the Dolphins' triumphant wild-card season.

 

Known for his big arm, Jay Cutler excelled at throwing passes that would help the Dolphins' passing stats but not contribute to their ability to win games.Chris Trotman/Getty Images

For comparison's sake, successful quarterbacks usually throw failed completions on about 20-23 percent of completions and 10-15 percent of attempts. The bottom of the failed completion list is historically the hangout of notorious check-down artists like Manning and Flacco, caretaker veterans like Brian Hoyer and rookies in survival mode throwing screens on 3rd-and-20. (Darnold was not among those rookies last year; more on that in a moment.)

Football Outsiders also keeps track of the distances of both complete and incomplete passes on all third downs. The following results include short- and medium-yardage situations as well as 3rd-and-long, so when Tannehill threw a screen or swing pass on 3rd-and-4—which happened several times last year—that's also in the data:

• Tannehill threw short of the first-down marker on 52.8 percent of all third-down attempts last year, ranking 35th.
• Cutler threw short of the sticks on 54.5 percent of third downs in 2017, ranking 37th. His average throw on 3rd-and-longs that year was 3.7 yards short of the first-down marker, which is remarkable when you try to visualize it (on 3rd-and-10, Cutler was going out of his way to throw six- or seven-yard passes).
• Tannehill ranked 17th by throwing 41.9 percent of his passes in front of the sticks in 2016, his good season.

 

Three seasons of data doesn't lie. Gase's Dolphins were terrible in long-yardage situations, and short passes on 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long both contributed to the problem and masked it by making the raw passing stats look better.

   

Indefensible dink-and-dunking

Quarterbacks themselves have a lot to do with whether deep receivers or the guys running the shallow drags get targeted on any given pass, of course. But four different veteran quarterbacks (Tannehill, Cutler, Osweiler and Matt Moore) contributed to these numbers. And Gase himself frequently emphasizes and defends his dink-and-dunk philosophy. Here he is justifying his love of the short pass in 2016, August and November, for example.

Gase pointed out in 2016 that short passes lower sack totals, which is typically true. But Dolphins quarterbacks were sacked 13 times in 2nd-and-long situations last year. When defenses know what's coming and don't have to respect the downfield threat, it's easier for them to get to the quarterback.

Gase has also noted, accurately, that the NFL gets more short pass-oriented every year. But Gase's teams have now been on the extreme, counterproductive vanguard of that trend for three seasons, producing below-average results.

That could pose a huge problem for Darnold, whose encouraging rookie season was based partly on not doing the things Tannehill and Cutler did.

Darnold threw failed completions on only 21.8 percent of his completions (ninth in the NFL) and 11.7 percent of his attempts (a remarkable fourth). Uniquely among rookie quarterbacks, Darnold took his share of downfield shots last season, and they were starting to pay off. The Jets finished just 30th in DVOA on 2nd-and-long (still better than Gase's Dolphins, despite fewer weapons and reps split between the rookie Darnold and undead zombie Josh McCown) but a respectable 15th on 3rd-and-long.

 

A four-year study by Nate Weller of Sports Info Solutions proved rather conclusively that it's better to throw past the sticks on third down than dump the ball off: The slightly increased turnover risk on a downfield shot is more than offset by the potential reward. The Jets finally found a young quarterback who is both willing and able to be aggressive in long-yardage situations. But they have yoked him to a head coach who doesn't even want to take deep shots on second downs.

 

Sam Darnold showed signs as a rookie that he was willing, and able, to throw deep, but with Adam Gase as his coach, history says he may not get the same green light this season.Charles Krupa/Associated Press

By replacing a few big plays with lots of ineffective screens and drag routes, Gase could turn Darnold into an ineffective quarterback with decent-looking numbers—Tannehill, in other words.

   

Worst Gase scenario (sorry)

Before we wrap up, we should address some extenuating circumstances in Gase's favor to satisfy desperate Jets hopefuls, statistical sticklers and perhaps any Peyton Manning burner accounts.

• Gase's Dolphins had injury issues. The Dolphins ranked 30th in offensive adjusted games lost last year; Tannehill, receiver Albert Wilson, guard Josh Sitton and others missed significant time in 2018. Cutler himself was an injury replacement in 2017, and numerous starting linemen missed time that year.
• Tannehill and Cutler aren't exactly Steve Young and Joe Montana, and both tended to check down and rely too much on short passes before they worked with Gase. Tannehill cracked the all-time failed completion list in 2015, the year before Gase became the Dolphins head coach. Cutler made the same list in 2014, one season before Gase became his offensive coordinator for the Bears.

The caveats come with a built-in worry: If Gase downshifts his offense into check-down mode at the slightest excuse—some guys are hurt, the quarterback isn't phenomenal—then he's more likely than ever to roll out the shallow crosses on second-and-15 for a team with a second-year passer, a weak offensive line and a thin skill-position corps.

The numbers indicate Gase's offenses look great when Peyton Manning is in the huddle (as he was in 2013 and 2014) but weak-to-terrible given ordinary talent and somewhat typical NFL adversity. The same could be said of you or me, and no one is offering us complete control over Darnold's future.

The best-case scenario for Darnold would be to develop into a daring downfield passer who makes the most of every completion.

That's the exact opposite of a Gase quarterback. Which is why Gase looks like the wrong guy for the job.

         

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @MikeTanier.

[Jetsfan80]

47 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Honestly?  I could not give 2 sh*ts about this argument.  It's stupid and I cant believe you keep responding to my obvious troll job.  Shocked this is still going, 2 totally different players, who played totally different positions, in totally different eras. Apples to oranges. 

I was just trying to trigger Savage on one of our favorites topics because I knew he'd start up his moronic "compiler" argument while trying to prop up a player in Joe Namath who "would have had better stats" if not for all the reasons that he uses to knock Martin.  lmfao  It's great and you ruined it, like usual. 

 

Matt Snell >>> Curtis Martin based on the argument you presented.  That's how ludicrous the argument has become, bruh.  It collapses on itself.    

And I'm glad I ruined your back and forth with Savage.  That makes it even better.  

[JustInFudge]

11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Matt Snell >>> Curtis Martin based on the argument you presented.  That's how ludicrous the argument has become, bruh.  It collapses on itself.    

And I'm glad I ruined your back and forth with Savage.  That makes it even better.  

Not at all, that would be the equation you presented.  God you're terrible even when I concede.