I just “won” the 1st pick in my fantasy draft

[jgb]

5 hours ago, Dunnie said:

It's not that difficult to figure out ... it's all about dropoff rate from top to bottom of position. The difference between QB3 and QB4 is smaller than RB2 and RB3 by a wide margin. It's all about Supply.

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Absolutely correct. Some QBs I have won competitive leagues with: Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Plummer, Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins version), Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield, John Kitna, and Gardner Minshew.

I have never won a league without at least one stud RB.

The only time I had a true stud QB was Cam Newton his MVP year (got him in 7th or 8th round, I think) and Titans Tannehill who all my leagues still let me steal every year in the 10th or later rounds.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

Absolutely correct. Some QBs I have won competitive leagues with: Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Plummer, Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins version), Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield, John Kitna, and Gardner Minshew.

I have never won a league without at least one stud RB.

The only time I had a true stud QB was Cam Newton his MVP year (got him in 7th or 8th round, I think) and Titans Tannehill who all my leagues still let me steal every year in the 10th or later rounds.

 

Yep.  Any strategy works as long as you get strong RB1 productivity (or an equivalent productivity combined from your RB1 and RB2 spots).  So if you pass on a RB in the first 2 rounds because of their risk (understandable take), then you likely need to load up on RB's the remainder of the draft and hope you hit a lottery ticket or 2. 

And depending on the size and competition level of your league, you can't always just depend on the waiver wire or trades to make it happen. 

[jgb]

8 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Yep.  Any strategy works as long as you get strong RB1 productivity (or an equivalent productivity combined from your RB1 and RB2 spots).  So if you pass on a RB in the first 2 rounds because of their risk (understandable take), then you likely need to load up on RB's the remainder of the draft and hope you hit a lottery ticket or 2. 

And depending on the size and competition level of your league, you can't always just depend on the waiver wire or trades to make it happen. 

Waiver wire barren in most of my leagues, especially dynasty with 14 teams and rosters of 30 players. Trade or die.

Agree on RBs. I know “zero RB” is gaining some traction. I’ve never been able to make that work. Seems it’s a lot easier to replace a good percentage of WR1 production than RB1. Zero RB is based on the premise that more and more teams are going with RBBC. To me that’s the exact reason to eschew zero RBs and do what you have to do to get one of the true bell cow producers. There are just not enough to go around. Supply-demand increases their value, not diminishes it. Now if you’re picking in the bottom of the first, you may almost have no choice but to take the WR there if the first tier of runners is off the board. But then you’re playing catch-up the rest of the draft. Of course, now all my re-draft leagues have gone to auction format which is IMHO infinitely better. 
 

But one obvious trend I’ve seen over hundreds of leagues over the years: I can’t remember ever seeing a team win the championship going QB in round 1. Another problem is mega stud QBs are at risk of leading their team to 14-win seasons have having nothing to play for come fantasy playoff time.
 

Interestingly, teams with a stud TE seems to do pretty well lately. Having one of the few consistent producers there is a built-in weekly advantage. The drop off from the first tier is massive.

Also, I rarely even draft a kicker or defense. Grab another WR or RB to get a look at in pre season/through final cuts. Then dump your bottom two players for a kicker/def Sunday week one.

[Jetsfan80]

5 hours ago, jgb said:

Waiver wire barren in most of my leagues, especially dynasty with 14 teams and rosters of 30 players. Trade or die.

Agree on RBs. I know “zero RB” is gaining some traction. I’ve never been able to make that work. Seems it’s a lot easier to replace a good percentage of WR1 production than RB1. Zero RB is based on the premise that more and more teams are going with RBBC. To me that’s the exact reason to eschew zero RBs and do what you have to do to get one of the true bell cow producers. There are just not enough to go around. Supply-demand increases their value, not diminishes it. Now if you’re picking in the bottom of the first, you may almost have no choice but to take the WR there if the first tier of runners is off the board. But then you’re playing catch-up the rest of the draft. Of course, now all my re-draft leagues have gone to auction format which is IMHO infinitely better. 
 

But one obvious trend I’ve seen over hundreds of leagues over the years: I can’t remember ever seeing a team win the championship going QB in round 1. Another problem is mega stud QBs are at risk of leading their team to 14-win seasons have having nothing to play for come fantasy playoff time.
 

Interestingly, teams with a stud TE seems to do pretty well lately. Having one of the few consistent producers there is a built-in weekly advantage. The drop off from the first tier is massive.

Also, I rarely even draft a kicker or defense. Grab another WR or RB to get a look at in pre season/through final cuts. Then dump your bottom two players for a kicker/def Sunday week one.

 

Good points all around on the above.  Regarding the bold, you're absolutely right.  And I'll go so far as to say even in the late 1st and early 2nd round I'm still taking a RB in those spots.  The first 12 guys on my board are all RB's right now. 

With the depth at WR I'm happy to wait until round 3, if needed, to grab my first WR.  At least in the mock drafts I've done so far, depending on where that 3rd round slot falls, you can end up with someone like DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley or Justin Jefferson as your WR1 even if you wait until Rd 3.  Not too shabby.

At TE I'm targeting one guy and one guy only this year:  Kyle Pitts.  @Paradis.  I don't have a plan B.  I'm willing to take him as high as Round 4.

[Paradis]

On 7/9/2021 at 8:15 AM, JOJOTOWNSELL said:

Im obligated to take CMC

 

so basically my season comes down to Sam Darnolds ability to check down. What could go wrong!? Lol

he'll never play 16 games in a season again. 

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Good points all around on the above.  Regarding the bold, you're absolutely right.  And I'll go so far as to say even in the late 1st and early 2nd round I'm still taking a RB in those spots.  The first 12 guys on my board are all RB's right now. 

With the depth at WR I'm happy to wait until round 3, if needed, to grab my first WR.  At least in the mock drafts I've done so far, depending on where that 3rd round slot falls, you can end up with someone like DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley or Justin Jefferson as your WR1 even if you wait until Rd 3.  Not too shabby.

At TE I'm targeting one guy and one guy only this year:  Kyle Pitts.  @Paradis.  I don't have a plan B.  I'm willing to take him as high as Round 4.

I wanna play in your leagues (and @jgb .... Especially dynasty. 

Unless a novel/unusual talent slides, you couldn't pay me to take a RB in the 1st/2nd. It's just too easy to bandaide that spot (injuries lead to handcuff starters as well as unexpected surfacing of players like P. Lindsays)..... Yes, there's a handful of RB1s that are invaluable, but the reality is the "OK" game i can get from Damian Harris, is miles better than the OK game i get strapped with from Allan Lazard or John Brown... it's not even a conversation on my end. I've been racking up Fantasy Championships by drafting a platoon of WR1s and backfilling with James Robinsons for 2 decades now. 

And if you can lock down a TE1 for a mid round price, then you're now End-Game boss on Contra level good. 

I sold out to get Pitts in every dynasty league. 

[Jetsfan80]

14 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I wanna play in your leagues (and @jgb .... Especially dynasty. 

Unless a novel/unusual talent slides, you couldn't pay me to take a RB in the 1st/2nd. It's just too easy to bandaide that spot (injuries lead to handcuff starters as well as unexpected surfacing of players like P. Lindsays)..... Yes, there's a handful of RB1s that are invaluable, but the reality is the "OK" game i can get from Damian Harris, is miles better than the OK game i get strapped with from Allan Lazard or John Brown... it's not even a conversation on my end. I've been racking up Fantasy Championships by drafting a platoon of WR1s and backfilling with James Robinsons for 2 decades now. 

And if you can lock down a TE1 for a mid round price, then you're now End-Game boss on Contra level good. 

I sold out to get Pitts in every dynasty league. 

 

I'm talking re-draft leagues for sure.  In a dynasty league no way I'd take a RB in round 1 or 2. 

And I dunno how you're able to "band-aid" so easily at RB in your league.  It simply hasn't really been possible in my money league for a while now.  Having a good eye for which backup RB's will pop if given the chance is obviously your strength.  I tried the "Zero RB" approach a few years back and drafted 8 RB's, all in rounds 4 or later.  It didn't work out well at all.

[Paradis]

38 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I'm talking re-draft leagues for sure.  In a dynasty league no way I'd take a RB in round 1 or 2. 

And I dunno how you're able to "band-aid" so easily at RB in your league.  It simply hasn't really been possible in my money league for a while now.  Having a good eye for which backup RB's will pop if given the chance is obviously your strength.  I tried the "Zero RB" approach a few years back and drafted 8 RB's, all in rounds 4 or later.  It didn't work out well at all.

OK, for redraft, I do have to admit that i take it year to year... depending on what the talent "heat map" looks like.

I use the ADP close to the draft night, map out picks per round (1-12 Rnd 1, picks 13-24, Rnd 2, etc)... basically a big visual snaking calendar of all 20 rounds, RBs in Red, WR in Green, etc -- and then "Highlight" the guys I like.... gives me color coded big picture look at where the ADP is plotting positions, and then were the highlighted guys are I like.... a heat map.

so if the map looks a certain way (like it did last year) I'll shift strategies. Last year I traded out of round 1 and took Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb near the 2-3 turn. Traditionally speaking though, there's always a few worth hedging bets on

I haven't done that same myopic deep dive yet this year. I did a dynasty draft in may and did not like the way the board fell for RBs.

some name's i'll be watching for value/options

• Tony Pollard
• Michael Carter (hate owning Jets players, but the ADP/situation is too good)
• RoJo
• Mike Davis (although he's starting to level off)
• Etienne in the 5th or lower is criminal. Love Robinson, but bet on talent, always.
• Damian Harris

 

Unfortunately what this draft class doesn't have IMO, is the deep sleepers that i usually rely on flesh out my backfield. The guys you get post R9/10. Everything after that is gross.

 

 

FWIW , wouldn't touch at their current price

• CMC
• J Taylor 
• Barkley
• Elliot
• Carson
• Montgomery

[jgb]

15 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Good points all around on the above.  Regarding the bold, you're absolutely right.  And I'll go so far as to say even in the late 1st and early 2nd round I'm still taking a RB in those spots.  The first 12 guys on my board are all RB's right now. 

With the depth at WR I'm happy to wait until round 3, if needed, to grab my first WR.  At least in the mock drafts I've done so far, depending on where that 3rd round slot falls, you can end up with someone like DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley or Justin Jefferson as your WR1 even if you wait until Rd 3.  Not too shabby.

At TE I'm targeting one guy and one guy only this year:  Kyle Pitts.  @Paradis.  I don't have a plan B.  I'm willing to take him as high as Round 4.

There is something inside me that just can't pull the trigger early on a TE. Although it could be argued that it's smarter to get Kelce in the 3rd than another WR1/2 -- which, as you say, can always be found later in draft.