Prospects 2022 and random college ball talk.

[kdels62]

 

I would draft Jesse Luketa. He pulled a hammy at the combine and has limited testing but something about him feels right. Luketa, Robinson, Sanders might all be options in round 3/4. I expect the Jets to go heavy into their senior bowl rolodex after the first 2 rounds. 

[Lith]

33 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Manufactured touches while he learns to run routes. His comeback route is depressing to watch. But his athleticism and physically is legit. I'd prefer London or Wilson but if we pass on WR he's a perfectly fine consolation prize. 

I don't know.  Seems like a pretty big gamble to take -- assuming he will learn to run routes and become a complete receiver.  If we add a solid vet between now and the draft, maybe I would be okay rolling the dice on Watson's upside.  But given the roster as it stand today, I am not as high on him as you.

[derp]

28 minutes ago, Lith said:

I don't know.  Seems like a pretty big gamble to take -- assuming he will learn to run routes and become a complete receiver.  If we add a solid vet between now and the draft, maybe I would be okay rolling the dice on Watson's upside.  But given the roster as it stand today, I am not as high on him as you.

There's a difference of opinion in terms of how the Jets are going to distribute snaps, but they were in 3 or more wide like 72% of snaps last year. Packers 65%, 49ers 48%. LaFleur ran a lot of 12 personnel early with bad results. 

If they can get an alpha WR I think they absolutely want to and the snaps are going to be more like the Packers or last year's Jets. But Conklin and Uzomah didn't get signed to sit on the bench - they're currently the 7th and 8th highest paid guys on the offense. Berrios is going to get snaps, too. 

It's not ideal, but they can run a lot of 12 and 21 and bring along a guy more slowly. Like kdels said - manufactured touches, shots. Watson can run block top. And if he's ready then they can take snaps away from Davis, Moore, Conklin, Uzomah, whoever. 

This WR class doesn't have any sure things. The board loves Garrett Wilson, he's a potential #1 WR - never led OSU in receiving. He's not a lock to come in and produce. London we've talked about here but has explosiveness questions and testing is TBD. Williams usage questions and the ACL. Olave never broke 1000 yards receiving in a season. Burks is raw. No lock day one producers, Watson's a gamble on day two but also less investment than one of those other guys in the first.

[kdels62]

12 minutes ago, Lith said:

I don't know.  Seems like a pretty big gamble to take -- assuming he will learn to run routes and become a complete receiver.  If we add a solid vet between now and the draft, maybe I would be okay rolling the dice on Watson's upside.  But given the roster as it stand today, I am not as high on him as you.

That’s fair. In my mind, ideally we aren’t in position to draft Watson. But I can understand someone loving his toolbox 

[Jdub03]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

I can do this all day ppl

 

 

This is the guy I want to develop behind the guys we just brought it in FA. Tons of potential in the pass game, and already a terrific blocker.

[Paradis]

1 minute ago, Jdub03 said:

This is the guy I want to develop behind the guys we just brought it in FA. Tons of potential in the pass game, and already a terrific blocker.

You and me both, friend. 

[Paradis]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

Curious as to what others in this thread think of Christian Watson.  Main board is in love iwth his athleticism, but he scares me for us. 

He is such a great athlete, playing at FCS level, looks like he has won a lot being a far better athlete than guys on the field against him.  I don't see a polished route runner, and he has a high drop rate.  Those are the two things I want out of a WR -- hands and route running -- and I don't think Watson excels at either.  Huge upside based on the athleticism, but I am not sure that is enough to roll the dice at 35 or 38. 

Would love to hear what you guys think.  

 

1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

Manufactured touches while he learns to run routes. His comeback route is depressing to watch. But his athleticism and physically is legit. I'd prefer London or Wilson but if we pass on WR he's a perfectly fine consolation prize. 

For whatever reason I haven’t made any time for Watson. Can’t explain the disinterest. But I know I have to b/c of course That’ll be the guy the Jets pick (eye roll).

this conversation you two are having sounds like Aiyuk a bit. Didn’t love him at first. He grew on me tho leading up to the draft.

[Beerfish]

ALL YOU KOLAR HATERS ARE GOING TO REGRET IT.   

[Jdub03]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

Curious as to what others in this thread think of Christian Watson.  Main board is in love iwth his athleticism, but he scares me for us. 

He is such a great athlete, playing at FCS level, looks like he has won a lot being a far better athlete than guys on the field against him.  I don't see a polished route runner, and he has a high drop rate.  Those are the two things I want out of a WR -- hands and route running -- and I don't think Watson excels at either.  Huge upside based on the athleticism, but I am not sure that is enough to roll the dice at 35 or 38. 

Would love to hear what you guys think.  

Day one he'd be a solid run blocker for us, which would also help disguise the vertical route tree he is best at.  I think this would really open up our offense. Additionally, he can be lined up all over the field, so he offers versatility in that respect. MLF could get very creative with him.

Additionally, I've read nothing but great things about his character. Seems to genuinely want to be great, and is self aware of his deficiencies. He's a kid I would bet on. I linked his combine interview, which impressed me.

I think the below link is a fair analysis of his game. I'm a very big fan of bringing him in.

https://steelersdepot.com/2022/03/2022-nfl-draft-player-profiles-north-dakota-state-wr-christian-watson/

 

 

 

[Jdub03]

38 minutes ago, Paradis said:

You and me both, friend. 

I made a joke about this in another thread,  he has the potential and length to play Tackle in the NFL, ala George Fant, lol. Not saying I'd want to that, but it's interesting to consider if for whatever reason TE doesn't work out.  Personally, I think TE does work out for him though.

[section314]

58 minutes ago, Paradis said:

You and me both, friend. 

Noticed that Jelani is now #5 on Bucky's top TE's. ? 

[kdels62]

So… here’s a guy that’s obviously what the Jets need and obviously connected to the Jets and who tested like a freak. 
JT Woods, Safety, Baylor

Nickname: The Heartbreak Kid

 

Range for days. 6 Ints this past year. Hard but inconsistent hitter. Was on the Jets senior bowl squad. Had an INT in the game. The Jets will obviously draft him.

[derp]

On 3/22/2022 at 3:01 PM, kdels62 said:

I took the easy route instead of getting the source itself but these are the numbers. The thing to note is that Drake London's game extends beyond being a contested catch guy. He excelled at creating room through route running and physical domination. Looking at the games he's forced into contested catches by how bad Slovis is at playing QB. 

It's funny because I hate contested catch guys but I'm smitten with London. I didn't like Mims when he came out because his film didn't match the testing numbers. What I see with London is subtly that makes him successful in ways that aren't so obvious. I like to go back to his Notre Dame game and see how he won at every level. He found soft spots in zone, did subtle double moves, used his frame to post up defenders and he used route running to make space on in breaking routes. It's all there and it feels genuine. I'm trying to find where he's functionally deficient and I can't find it. 

Genuine question. London’s screen game usage was pretty heavy. That would have an impact on his contested catch percentage, right? I kind of wonder if after you removed screens from the numerator and denominator for all players he’d be closer to the Mims, JJAW, Harry group than Chase, Higgins, Metcalf, Claypool.

[derp]

On 3/27/2022 at 8:42 PM, kdels62 said:

So… here’s a guy that’s obviously what the Jets need and obviously connected to the Jets and who tested like a freak. 
JT Woods, Safety, Baylor

Nickname: The Heartbreak Kid

 

Range for days. 6 Ints this past year. Hard but inconsistent hitter. Was on the Jets senior bowl squad. Had an INT in the game. The Jets will obviously draft him.

Multiple Woods’ day three? This is a pretty great find seems like a big fit for what they need.

[kdels62]

That 40 time plus his broad and vert make for a borderline elite profile. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

That 40 time plus his broad and vert make for a borderline elite profile. 

40 time is legit. Hope he runs the agility drills, but his game is explosive power more than agility on tape to me and that's okay. He's got great hand usage and understanding of countering off-balance offensive lineman. Criminally underrated by the board overall who seem to love JJ and are sleeping on Karlaftis.

[kdels62]

So I was listening to the Bleav in NFL Draft Prospects podcast and one of the guys in said that he knows for a fact that some people with the Jets are smitten with Drake London.

[derp]

3 hours ago, kdels62 said:

That 40 time plus his broad and vert make for a borderline elite profile. 

Sauce -> trade down -> Karlaftis would be solid. He's probably a better value mid-first than some of the guys at 4 are at 4. Problem at 4 is that's an issue for most of the guys who will be available there.

2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

So I was listening to the Bleav in NFL Draft Prospects podcast and one of the guys in said that he knows for a fact that some people with the Jets are smitten with Drake London.

I feel like the team captain thing is all Douglas likes, he makes sense across from Moore, and the upside of adjusting to a new sport is probably appealing too. I still would like to see him run.

[JustInFudge]

On 3/27/2022 at 8:42 PM, kdels62 said:

So… here’s a guy that’s obviously what the Jets need and obviously connected to the Jets and who tested like a freak. 
JT Woods, Safety, Baylor

Nickname: The Heartbreak Kid

 

Range for days. 6 Ints this past year. Hard but inconsistent hitter. Was on the Jets senior bowl squad. Had an INT in the game. The Jets will obviously draft him.

The heartbreak kid is miserable nickname for a S.  Anytime he gets beat, it's heart breaking?  Ugh

[JustInFudge]

3 hours ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

40 time is legit. Hope he runs the agility drills, but his game is explosive power more than agility on tape to me and that's okay. He's got great hand usage and understanding of countering off-balance offensive lineman. Criminally underrated by the board overall who seem to love JJ and are sleeping on Karlaftis.

Why do you hate JJ so much?  It hurts me.

[JustInFudge]

3 hours ago, kdels62 said:

So I was listening to the Bleav in NFL Draft Prospects podcast and one of the guys in said that he knows for a fact that some people with the Jets are smitten with Drake London.

Yeah, well I know for a fact, some people are not! 

[kdels62]

8 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

The heartbreak kid is miserable nickname for a S.  Anytime he gets beat, it's heart breaking?  Ugh

Yeah but when he gets a pick and the stadium DJ hits the Shawn Michaels theme song it will be fire

[kdels62]

7 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Yeah, well I know for a fact, some people are not! 

Do you actually know that? Because that’d be cool.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

5 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Why do you hate JJ so much?  It hurts me.

I don't hate him, I just value other rushers more highly and think the value doesn't match up with where he's slotted to go. I think he's going to be a top 15 pick easily if not top 10 and I would personally value the risk profile at around a 2nd round pick.

He had a very good senior bowl and I was expecting to see that same kind of production when looking more into him and I came away disappointed. He's got a good bull rush, but I have serious concerns whether he's twitched up enough and has the hips to dip around the edge. For a guy that I question the pass-rushing arsenal for I can't see myself loving him with a top 10 pick, especially if I don't know if his athletic potential justifies it either.  Personal preference, and I think you know me well enough to not claim that I'm right and you're wrong or anything like that. He can very well be dominant.

 

[JustInFudge]

10 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Do you actually know that? Because that’d be cool.

Maybe, maybe not but is it hard to believe either way that there might be dissenting opinions on a player? 

 

[JustInFudge]

15 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

I don't hate him, I just value other rushers more highly and think the value doesn't match up with where he's slotted to go. I think he's going to be a top 15 pick easily if not top 10 and I would personally value the risk profile at around a 2nd round pick.

He had a very good senior bowl and I was expecting to see that same kind of production when looking more into him and I came away disappointed. He's got a good bull rush, but I have serious concerns whether he's twitched up enough and has the hips to dip around the edge. For a guy that I question the pass-rushing arsenal for I can't see myself loving him with a top 10 pick, especially if I don't know if his athletic potential justifies it either.  Personal preference, and I think you know me well enough to not claim that I'm right and you're wrong or anything like that. He can very well be dominant.

 

Right on, I thought he did have the athletic profile?  At least, that's why I've been so firm on him at 10 is ideal.  I like what I've watched from JJ, personally.  Seems to give effort in and be effective in both run and pass rush.  I can say, he was dominant vs. ND and Miami.  He took over in the 2nd half of those games and I thought he was impressive when the Florida beat them in head to head competition. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

5 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Right on, I thought he did have the athletic profile?  At least, that's why I've been so firm on him at 10 is ideal.  I like what I've watched from JJ, personally.  Seems to give effort in and be effective in both run and pass rush.  I can say, he was dominant vs. ND and Miami.  He took over in the 2nd half of those games and I thought he was impressive when the Florida beat them in head to head competition. 

I'm a big agility guy for pass rushers. I think Florida State has the pro day today, so we'll find out of he participates in those drills or not. His 40 was good, vertical was ok. It's not the end all be all, but my biggest question mark is on his agility, so that's why I questioned the athletic profile. He's up there in RAS for sure with the other numbers.

That being said, I like the highs with him to your point and then I look at his game against UNC and I am whelmed overall. Might be nit-picky. That's why I want to clarify it's not hate, I just don't like him with a top 10 pick per se.

 

[derp]

4 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Right on, I thought he did have the athletic profile?  At least, that's why I've been so firm on him at 10 is ideal.  I like what I've watched from JJ, personally.  Seems to give effort in and be effective in both run and pass rush.  I can say, he was dominant vs. ND and Miami.  He took over in the 2nd half of those games and I thought he was impressive when the Florida beat them in head to head competition. 

He didn't have a good vert which tends to be the indicator of explosiveness for pass rushers and ducked the agility drills.

Is the game against Miami impressive? I haven't really taken a dive because of time issues but in his highlights that right tackle he had a couple sacks against looked terribly overmatched. Same with the Jacksonville State team he dominated. See a lot of bull rush -> hesitation move and not a lot of bending the edge. I got the vibe he manhandled overmatched guys last year and the adjustment to the NFL level would be tough.

All that combined with turning 24 late his rookie year...he's still an interesting guy but strikes me as a little overhyped because he had 10+ sacks last year and runs fast in a straight line.

[derp]

2 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

I'm a big agility guy for pass rushers. I think Florida State has the pro day today, so we'll find out of he participates in those drills or not. His 40 was good, vertical was ok. It's not the end all be all, but my biggest question mark is on his agility, so that's why I questioned the athletic profile. He's up there in RAS for sure with the other numbers.

That being said, I like the highs with him to your point and then I look at his game against UNC and I am whelmed overall. Might be nit-picky. That's why I want to clarify it's not hate, I just don't like him with a top 10 pick per se.

 

He only benched at the pro day. No agility drills and didn't look to improve the vert. The RAS goes down a little (not a lot) if you change him to a DE and obviously if you put in just average agility times it drops a little further, though it'll never be especially bad.

[kdels62]

9 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

I'm a big agility guy for pass rushers. I think Florida State has the pro day today, so we'll find out of he participates in those drills or not. His 40 was good, vertical was ok. It's not the end all be all, but my biggest question mark is on his agility, so that's why I questioned the athletic profile. He's up there in RAS for sure with the other numbers.

That being said, I like the highs with him to your point and then I look at his game against UNC and I am whelmed overall. Might be nit-picky. That's why I want to clarify it's not hate, I just don't like him with a top 10 pick per se.

 

Johnson is great value… at 20. He avoided DE drills at the combine and avoided all agility testing. Combine that with a bad vert and it’s worrisome. He also feasted on Miami’s overmatched tackle that wasn’t Zion Nelson, he got stonewalled consistently by Nelson. 

It’s reported that the Jets are meeting with Karlaftis today. I haven’t heard anything about JJ yet. 

[kdels62]

 

More than sufficient for 10 overall.

[derp]

12 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

 

More than sufficient for 10 overall.

RAS seems fine as a tool but I feel like it’s weighted poorly for various positions - that strikes me as a better profile than a 9.01 for an edge with the explosion grade.

I do think he’s an interesting move all over the line and figure out his best fit option for a team that has a little long term flexibility. Would prefer later than 10 but I’m sure he’s in play there.

[kdels62]

Just now, derp said:

RAS seems fine as a tool but I feel like it’s weighted poorly for various positions - that strikes me as a better profile than a 9.01 for an edge with the explosion grade.

I do think he’s an interesting move all over the line and figure out his best fit option for a team that has a little long term flexibility. Would prefer later than 10 but I’m sure he’s in play there.

I’d prefer a trade down but I try to function as if it’s not gonna happen. 

[kdels62]

20 hours ago, derp said:

Genuine question. London’s screen game usage was pretty heavy. That would have an impact on his contested catch percentage, right? I kind of wonder if after you removed screens from the numerator and denominator for all players he’d be closer to the Mims, JJAW, Harry group than Chase, Higgins, Metcalf, Claypool.

So I haven’t been able to do everyone but London’s percentage goes go up to 30% if you remove screen receptions from his “thrown to” total. Chase climbs a bit a well and ends up at 28%. Mims goes up half a percentage so I’m gonna say he stays at 36%. So London stays closer to the good than the bad but it becomes more worrisome.

[kdels62]

I’d been trying to track down a 3 cone time for Karlaftis and I found this. I can’t verify it but if it’s real… it’s surprising.