Prospects 2022 and random college ball talk.

[maury77]

On 10/28/2021 at 6:23 PM, kdels62 said:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2022-nfl-draft-rankings-top-10-players-at-every-position

 

I clicked on this link to peruse what's going on with the draft since I stopped following it. I could not recognize more than 7-8 players named regardless of position. I commend you guys for keeping this up. 

[kdels62]

Pretty cool

[kdels62]

So I guess we might draft Jordan Davis

[derp]

12 hours ago, kdels62 said:

So I guess we might draft Jordan Davis

Run defense?

[kdels62]

52 minutes ago, derp said:

Run defense?

I’m just being reactive. I wouldn’t do it. There’s a fundamental scheme issue with this defense that wouldn’t be fixed by throwing Jordan Davis or any IDL at it. Foley Fatukasi and Quinnen Williams have been high end players against run for years, that didn’t just go away. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

11 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

I’m just being reactive. I wouldn’t do it. There’s a fundamental scheme issue with this defense that wouldn’t be fixed by throwing Jordan Davis or any IDL at it. Foley Fatukasi and Quinnen Williams have been high end players against run for years, that didn’t just go away. 

Absolutely agree about the scheme issue. 

The scheme is really designed to play with and maintain a lead. Chew clock with the run, have elite pass rushers at the line, the secondary eliminates explosive plays and keep plays in front of the back 7.  Except we have a league-worst rushing attack and fall behind almost from the start of games and can't stop the run. I don't see them changing formations on defense in terms of the front, so honestly they sort of just need to execute better until they upgrade personnel.

[kdels62]

5 hours ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Absolutely agree about the scheme issue. 

The scheme is really designed to play with and maintain a lead. Chew clock with the run, have elite pass rushers at the line, the secondary eliminates explosive plays and keep plays in front of the back 7.  Except we have a league-worst rushing attack and fall behind almost from the start of games and can't stop the run. I don't see them changing formations on defense in terms of the front, so honestly they sort of just need to execute better until they upgrade personnel.

Upgrade the personnel to what? Since the Falcons game the book has been out on hurting this team. Neutralize JFM, let Q, Rankins, Foley pursue up field and then hit a misdirection either via a screen or a cutback lane. Those 4 players are legitimate NFL starter quality guys. I’m shocked at how bad those guys have performed but upgrading them isn’t easy since they’re all pretty good. Maybe the Linebackers are failing to clean up or maybe the scheme is just broken, either way I think wasting capital to upgrade IDL would be asinine.

Nakobe Dean has my heart tho. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

7 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Upgrade the personnel to what? Since the Falcons game the book has been out on hurting this team. Neutralize JFM, let Q, Rankins, Foley pursue up field and then hit a misdirection either via a screen or a cutback lane. Those 4 players are legitimate NFL starter quality guys. I’m shocked at how bad those guys have performed but upgrading them isn’t easy since they’re all pretty good. Maybe the Linebackers are failing to clean up or maybe the scheme is just broken, either way I think wasting capital to upgrade IDL would be asinine.

Nakobe Dean has my heart tho. 

I mean upgrade linebacker, not IDL. I think Mosley is playing through an injury which makes it look worse, but we Davis is here only on a one year deal anyways and i’ve been whelmed by Hamsah and especially Sherwood when he was healthy. 

[kdels62]

All of this is somewhat interesting

1) This mock draft sucks 

2) DJ makes a good point even if I don’t agree with it.

I don’t see a true offensive playmaker at that point of the draft. Defensively tho Karlaftis, Elam, Gardner are all reasonably talented players worthy of the pick. My opinion is that Linderbaum turns this OL into an unit with Elite upside and MC2, Ty Johnson, Zach Wilson/ Mike White all benefit. It’s still a worthy discussion. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

19 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

All of this is somewhat interesting

1) This mock draft sucks 

2) DJ makes a good point even if I don’t agree with it.

I don’t see a true offensive playmaker at that point of the draft. Defensively tho Karlaftis, Elam, Gardner are all reasonably talented players worthy of the pick. My opinion is that Linderbaum turns this OL into an unit with Elite upside and MC2, Ty Johnson, Zach Wilson/ Mike White all benefit. It’s still a worthy discussion. 

The offensive line is still a major problem in my opinion because they still cannot generate a rushing offense. i’m Linderbaum all day and then bring in a real guard to replace GVR, it can be a later draft pick or FA, not an early pick. 

Still early, but I think tackle is a bit deeper and better in this draft than IOL as a whole. No pressing need to go there since Fant has been good, but because of the injury risk of Becton i would consider it at some point in the draft because I just don’t see how you can rely on him long term at this rate. 

so for me, i lock in Linderbaum early and think about best edge available and feel good about round one. Though trading back for more day 2 picks i’m also okay with since it’s apparent the defense is putrid and needs help. 

[derp]

21 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

All of this is somewhat interesting

1) This mock draft sucks 

2) DJ makes a good point even if I don’t agree with it.

I don’t see a true offensive playmaker at that point of the draft. Defensively tho Karlaftis, Elam, Gardner are all reasonably talented players worthy of the pick. My opinion is that Linderbaum turns this OL into an unit with Elite upside and MC2, Ty Johnson, Zach Wilson/ Mike White all benefit. It’s still a worthy discussion. 

 

I think the draft looks worse because corner early kicks everything else down the curb in an unappealing way.

Basically at this point I think Douglas has assembled a roster that is young, cheap, and largely at or a tick above replacement level across the board. What’s kind of nice there is that there’s legitimate replacement level depth - the team’s had a bunch of injuries and it doesn’t go off a cliff like it used to. The problem is that the starters aren’t real difference makers. The roster is pretty much mediocre enough that you can talk yourself into any position making sense.

So the things to look for IMO are which guys are going to be difference makers within the scheme, team building philosophy, and positional value. Someone like Linderbaum is extraordinarily appealing to me because I see a pretty much guaranteed difference maker. He also fits the team building philosophy. Lots of the other guys they could take are more gambles. Linderbaum doesn’t really check the positional value box which is a potential concern but it’s a guy that brings a lot of things together. I also think it’s one thing to be good and it’s another thing to be so good that you can accomplish things most players can’t and Linderbaum falls into the latter category. Opens up different stuff in the playbook, particularly in the run game, that I think will be hard for teams to prepare for because they don’t see centers who move like that every week.

But if they don’t address it then it’s not like the year Douglas got hired when they left the draft with no competition for Harrison. So I do get that it’s not critical.

The timing is right though with McGovern only having one year left. Draft Linderbaum, kick McGovern to guard, and improve two spots. But they could also sign a FA guard and draft Lindstrom in the third or fourth round and accomplish the RG upgrade and future center and that’d be perfectly reasonable. I don’t think that’s how Douglas wants to build but it is possible.

I am pretty convinced they’re going to draft a tackle and let him compete with Fant for similar reasons. Moses’ spot opened up, they needed depth there this year and will last year and will need an in house option to replace Fant when he expires - along with maybe one to push Becton.

If both first round picks end up in the 6-15 range I do think a trade down with one to acquire more picks in the day 2 area could make a lot of sense. There’s so much stuff they can address well in that range. Linebacker and safety both seem to have good classes day two and need help, tackle I think gets addressed, tight end they can do day two (and again day three). Those are the big ones in that range but also iOL if they don’t address it earlier, don’t think they’re done building at WR, I wouldn’t be mad about a home run hitter at RB (though not sure that guy is in this draft in that range), corner is up there on everyone else’s list, edge if they don’t address it earlier, iDL if they don’t re-sign Fatukasi…

So basically…every position except QB. Gets back to the thought from earlier - team just needs difference makers.

 

[sec101row23]

16 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Upgrade the personnel to what? Since the Falcons game the book has been out on hurting this team. Neutralize JFM, let Q, Rankins, Foley pursue up field and then hit a misdirection either via a screen or a cutback lane. Those 4 players are legitimate NFL starter quality guys. I’m shocked at how bad those guys have performed but upgrading them isn’t easy since they’re all pretty good. Maybe the Linebackers are failing to clean up or maybe the scheme is just broken, either way I think wasting capital to upgrade IDL would be asinine.

Nakobe Dean has my heart tho. 

I was starting to look at this LBer class last night and loved watching Dean.  My fear is that he’s only 6’ and 220 pounds.  Devin Loyd, Brandon Smith and  Christian Harris are all 235 plus.  I think LBer will addressed at some point in this draft though.  

[kdels62]

26 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

I was starting to look at this LBer class last night and loved watching Dean.  My fear is that he’s only 6’ and 220 pounds.  Devin Loyd, Brandon Smith and  Christian Harris are all 235 plus.  I think LBer will addressed at some point in this draft though.  

Dean is spectacular. Genuinely looks like playoff Devin White every week. Makes me feel all tingly. 

I really like Jestin Jacobs from Iowa but his size might be an issue especially since Saleh looks like he just wants to leave our LBs clean to get wiped out by guards. 

The Devin Lloyd question is one I can’t answer. I don’t like him at all but that might be a result of how he’s used which is constantly blitzing or at the LOS like an edge hybrid. Athleticism is definitely there tho I just wish I saw more of the traits I think our scheme uses.

[derp]

Linebacker and safety seem like two positions  that will be needs and will have quality guys on the board day two. I was ragging on the idea of drafting a linebacker but it may become a stop the bleeding situation and if there’s a good player may as well pull the trigger.

They seem to like linebackers Darron Lee would think are small so I’d be more concerned about a guy being too big than too small.

[Greenseed4]

I don’t see how we DON’T take Kenyon Green. He can play every position on the OL except center and we have a GM that values OL and versatility. 

Green has the ability to be our AVT on the right-side.  RG/RT

[Lith]

On 11/6/2021 at 7:44 AM, kdels62 said:

All of this is somewhat interesting

1) This mock draft sucks 

2) DJ makes a good point even if I don’t agree with it.

I don’t see a true offensive playmaker at that point of the draft. Defensively tho Karlaftis, Elam, Gardner are all reasonably talented players worthy of the pick. My opinion is that Linderbaum turns this OL into an unit with Elite upside and MC2, Ty Johnson, Zach Wilson/ Mike White all benefit. It’s still a worthy discussion. 

I think i am coing around to DJ's way of thinking. 

OL has been pretty good after a horrific first few games.  We have Becton, Fant, McGovern, AVT all returning (and GVR, who hopefully will just be depth).  Edoga is also returning and he looked pretty good as a back up when he came in for Fant against Cincy.  Add an interior OL in free agency and we should be good. 

Only WRs under contract are Moore, Davis and Mims, and we have no idea what Mims is or will be-- I would love to see him emerge in the second half.  Kroft is decent, but we really could use a dynamic playmaking TE ahead of him.  And defense is desperately in need of upgrades.  Edge, LB, and Safety are all huge needs.  I think our corners will be fine if we upgrade elsewhere.

Haven't really started to study prospects yet, but if we came out fo the first round with Edge and either WR/TE, LB or Safety.  And added the other pieces plus OL depth on day 2, I would be happy with that approach.

[derp]

8 minutes ago, Lith said:

I think i am coing around to DJ's way of thinking. 

OL has been pretty good after a horrific first few games.  We have Becton, Fant, McGovern, AVT all returning (and GVR, who hopefully will just be depth).  Edoga is also returning and he looked pretty good as a back up when he came in for Fant against Cincy.  Add an interior OL in free agency and we should be good. 

Only WRs under contract are Moore, Davis and Mims, and we have no idea what Mims is or will be-- I would love to see him emerge in the second half.  Kroft is decent, but we really could use a dynamic playmaking TE ahead of him.  And defense is desperately in need of upgrades.  Edge, LB, and Safety are all huge needs.  I think our corners will be fine if we upgrade elsewhere.

Haven't really started to study prospects yet, but if we came out fo the first round with Edge and either WR/TE, LB or Safety.  And added the other pieces plus OL depth on day 2, I would be happy with that approach.

The big thing with the OL is that most of them expire after next season. I don’t know how Douglas goes about addressing it - I don’t think Neal where he’s going to go would be prudent for example - but the point you make about day two depth is prudent IMO. The only OL approaches that I think could be justified are Linderbaum because he’s just a lock or someone like Charles Cross in the 20’s if they trade down.

Linderbaum and kick McGovern to guard is pretty clean. Could also sign a FA guard and draft a center in the round 3-5 range to back up/push McGovern and take over. Both totally reasonable. Could also draft a guard too but that doesn’t seem as likely - feel like they’ll run out of roster spots. Maybe late. Back to back early guards doesn’t sound like something they’d do. Maybe that’s a backup if they’re targeting Linderbaum and lose him. They’ve also got Becton-Fant-Edoga returning with Moses a FA but Fant-Edoga expiring after the season. Tackle day two to push Fant (and maybe Becton) and take over the following year feels like a layup.

The other big thing with the OL and I think the kind of interesting thing about the way the team is schematically built on both sides of the football is that the personnel and schemes on both sides is really built around playing in close games or preferably with leads. I think that’s maybe why San Francisco turned things around so quickly. So not that it has to be the OL but I think the easiest way to get there is to just have the offense be good.

I think edge could get addressed the way Douglas values the front and Saleh’s scheme is supposed to work but with Lawson and JFM getting decent money that’d likely mean a rotational guy for two years on the edge. Definite third down role but it’s at least a little tough to justify in the top ten when the team is this bad. Still think they’d do it and I wouldn’t complain because it’s important but a freak athlete in the second round wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Do think WR could still use attention. I still like addressing that in the second round but there are some first round guys I wouldn’t be mad about. Tight end is obviously an enormous, enormous need but doesn’t seem to be a first round position this year either. Linebacker another a spot they could use some juice with lots of interesting day two guys. Safety another one. It’s nice they have three picks to work with in that range but honestly with those two early selections they could really use more.

I don’t know if they’d take Kyle Hamilton and I’d be at least a little annoyed if they take a safety super high in the draft but he’s actually got ball production and pretty insane physical traits. I’m not sure there’s a way the team adds more just straight up talent at need spots than if they drafted Hamilton and Linderbaum. Throws positional value straight out the window though. Add in Dean at the top of the second and then go after pass catchers.

[kdels62]

8 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

I don’t see how we DON’T take Kenyon Green. He can play every position on the OL except center and we have a GM that values OL and versatility. 

Green has the ability to be our AVT on the right-side.  RG/RT

Meh. Green is not the athlete AVT and he cannot play tackle at the next level. 

[Lith]

37 minutes ago, derp said:

I think edge could get addressed the way Douglas values the front and Saleh’s scheme is supposed to work but with Lawson and JFM getting decent money that’d likely mean a rotational guy for two years on the edge. Definite third down role but it’s at least a little tough to justify in the top ten when the team is this bad. Still think they’d do it and I wouldn’t complain because it’s important but a freak athlete in the second round wouldn’t be a bad idea.

If you look at the structure of JFM's deal, it is basically a one-year extension with team options for 2023-25.  He can be cut after 2022 for $1.2M dead cap.  And we don't know how effective Lawson will be coming off the injry. 

I am still all in on a stud edge.  We need our own Garrett/Bosa type.  If we are in position to draft Thibodeaux, I am running to the podium with his card.  Other guys like Hutchinson/Karlaftis are more uncertain but have the upside.  With four picks in R1 and R2, I really want one of them to be an edge, and I would not mind using a top 10 pick there -- the position is so critical and we have had nothing for the last 15 years.

[derp]

13 minutes ago, Lith said:

If you look at the structure of JFM's deal, it is basically a one-year extension with team options for 2023-25.  He can be cut after 2022 for $1.2M dead cap.  And we don't know how effective Lawson will be coming off the injry. 

I am still all in on a stud edge.  We need our own Garrett/Bosa type.  If we are in position to draft Thibodeaux, I am running to the podium with his card.  Other guys like Hutchinson/Karlaftis are more uncertain but have the upside.  With four picks in R1 and R2, I really want one of them to be an edge, and I would not mind using a top 10 pick there -- the position is so critical and we have had nothing for the last 15 years.

I have no issue whatsoever with edge for the same reasons you described. I just think if you look at the team position by position it’s one of the groups they’ve sadly got better talent at, so in terms of needs it’s not quite up there with some spots that are just huge holes. But yeah, very fine with edge. It’s just one we’ll be pounding the table on and they could just straight up ignore. Not that I think they should, but it’s feasible the same way passing on OL is if not more so.

I also think you kind of explained part of what I was thinking. Thibodeaux is a layup but I don’t think they’ll be in position to take him. Tier below that gets fuzzier and then the further you go down the board the more it’s a hit or miss position. I do think it’d be a good year to take a raw talented guy - even high - since the guy wouldn’t necessarily need to play right away.

[sec101row23]

On 11/6/2021 at 11:17 AM, kdels62 said:

Dean is spectacular. Genuinely looks like playoff Devin White every week. Makes me feel all tingly. 

I really like Jestin Jacobs from Iowa but his size might be an issue especially since Saleh looks like he just wants to leave our LBs clean to get wiped out by guards. 

The Devin Lloyd question is one I can’t answer. I don’t like him at all but that might be a result of how he’s used which is constantly blitzing or at the LOS like an edge hybrid. Athleticism is definitely there tho I just wish I saw more of the traits I think our scheme uses.

Does Dean’s size worry you though?   Brandon Smith intrigues me.  Extremely athletic at 6’3” 240.   

[kdels62]

58 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Does Dean’s size worry you though?   Brandon Smith intrigues me.  Extremely athletic at 6’3” 240.   

It doesn’t because I think Dean is just that good. 

I was gonna mention Smith in that last post. Yes. Dude is good. I really like him and Jaquan Brisker on that Penn State defense. 

[Lith]

1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

Does Dean’s size worry you though?   Brandon Smith intrigues me.  Extremely athletic at 6’3” 240.   

If Dean measues north of 6' and 230+ lbs at the combine, he is fine.  Similar ht/wt as guys like Roquan Smith, Devin White, Lavonte David.  He is probably playing at about 220-225 now.  As long as he can add about 10 more pounds on his frame, and not lose speed/quickness, I would be happy with him -- better than the 215 lb converted safeties we drafted last year.

[kdels62]

Chad Muma… for your consideration 

 

[Chrebetfan80]

On 11/5/2021 at 1:03 PM, kdels62 said:

I’m just being reactive. I wouldn’t do it. There’s a fundamental scheme issue with this defense that wouldn’t be fixed by throwing Jordan Davis or any IDL at it. Foley Fatukasi and Quinnen Williams have been high end players against run for years, that didn’t just go away. 

alot of it has to do with run fits by the LBS in this system.  First thing, Davis since coming back has not done a great job coming down into his gaps fast enough, mosely has been good but missing some tackles playing a little out of control.  The line has to be better on hits run reads too, getting too far upfield on run plays not reading their keys as well as they should.  This is a very aggressive system up front, if you cant read your run keys consistently and effectively you'll get caught out of position more times than not.  This causes lineman to be able to get up to backers, and if they are not fitting fast enough well then you get the space in the run game we've seen recently.  

[Chrebetfan80]

On 11/6/2021 at 8:44 AM, kdels62 said:

All of this is somewhat interesting

1) This mock draft sucks 

2) DJ makes a good point even if I don’t agree with it.

I don’t see a true offensive playmaker at that point of the draft. Defensively tho Karlaftis, Elam, Gardner are all reasonably talented players worthy of the pick. My opinion is that Linderbaum turns this OL into an unit with Elite upside and MC2, Ty Johnson, Zach Wilson/ Mike White all benefit. It’s still a worthy discussion. 

Agreed on this front, I dont think the jets necessarily NEEED to go OL in the first round iwth the better play upfront recently.  Obviously RG is an issue that needs to be addressed but in FA you could potentially throw money at a Scherff or Teller if they hit the market.  There are other FA areas I would look at however such as TE and WR which both have some really tantalizing options that may pop free. 

In the draft, unless you have a shot at Thibs or prob Karlaftis, I dont see a defensive player that makes this team markedly better where we will be picking.  Unless you want to take a safety again, i do like Hamilton.  To me in that top part of the draft, Its Linderbaum, Thibs, or Karlaftis.  Those are really the three guys that I think fall into the window we will be drafting (not so much thibs).  If thats the case then drafting Linderbaum and moving McGovern to RG solves two issues for you, and youre left with another potentially top 15 pick to address a playmaker somewhere else. 

[Chrebetfan80]

On 11/6/2021 at 10:51 AM, sec101row23 said:

I was starting to look at this LBer class last night and loved watching Dean.  My fear is that he’s only 6’ and 220 pounds.  Devin Loyd, Brandon Smith and  Christian Harris are all 235 plus.  I think LBer will addressed at some point in this draft though.  

alot of us thought they would look to snag someone last draft and they went with two guys to convert from safety to LB so I am unsure if i have a feel for what they want to do at the position in this draft.  I think it goes back to what @derp said in his post about adding difference makers at key spots now.  I think theres a solid foundation of talent laid down, but mostly solid not spectacular.  Any spot can be upgraded so best most outstanding talent is going to be the pick i think.

[Lith]

1 hour ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Obviously RG is an issue that needs to be addressed but in FA you could potentially throw money at a Scherff or Teller if they hit the market. 

Well, so much for that.  Why I never look at FA lists until late Feb/early March.

 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

4 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Agreed on this front, I dont think the jets necessarily NEEED to go OL in the first round iwth the better play upfront recently.  Obviously RG is an issue that needs to be addressed but in FA you could potentially throw money at a Scherff or Teller if they hit the market.  There are other FA areas I would look at however such as TE and WR which both have some really tantalizing options that may pop free. 

In the draft, unless you have a shot at Thibs or prob Karlaftis, I dont see a defensive player that makes this team markedly better where we will be picking.  Unless you want to take a safety again, i do like Hamilton.  To me in that top part of the draft, Its Linderbaum, Thibs, or Karlaftis.  Those are really the three guys that I think fall into the window we will be drafting (not so much thibs).  If thats the case then drafting Linderbaum and moving McGovern to RG solves two issues for you, and youre left with another potentially top 15 pick to address a playmaker somewhere else. 

Linderbaum just makes too much sense to me as to your point, it pretty much can upgrade two positions in one move with an all-pro caliber talent. Although the line play is better, I still want to take a developmental tackle at some point since there is a lot of talent there in my opinion this draft. Assuming we're not in the running for Thibs, Karlaftis + Linderbaum is pretty much my ideal round one at this point if it's possible.

Linebacker seems thin depth-wise so that'll be an interesting test as to whether they value it enough to take a high pick with it or not.

[sec101row23]

This is interesting and kind of goes along with the thought that this is a pretty weak top of the draft.  
 

 

[derp]

13 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

This is interesting and kind of goes along with the thought that this is a pretty weak top of the draft.  
 

 

That seems like a kind of big number for #1 overall but the spirit of that makes sense. Also probably feeds into why we all don’t think there’s a big issue with taking a center really high.

[kdels62]

2 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

This is interesting and kind of goes along with the thought that this is a pretty weak top of the draft.  
 

 

Seems dramatic but the only clear cut top end type talents in this draft are Thibodeaux followed by non premium Hamilton and Linderbaum. Someone is gonna blink and pull the trigger on Linderbaum in the top 10, it’s a game of chicken at this point.

And Duke Manyweather weighs in

 

[kdels62]

 

[derp]

2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Seems dramatic but the only clear cut top end type talents in this draft are Thibodeaux followed by non premium Hamilton and Linderbaum. Someone is gonna blink and pull the trigger on Linderbaum in the top 10, it’s a game of chicken at this point.

And Duke Manyweather weighs in

 

I don’t feel the same way about all the selections but if they’re not picking first can the Jets add more talent than Hamilton-Linderbaum-Dean?

[kdels62]

5 hours ago, derp said:

I don’t feel the same way about all the selections but if they’re not picking first can the Jets add more talent than Hamilton-Linderbaum-Dean?

All 3 of those guys play 100% of the starter snaps from day 1 with plus athleticism and production.

The only other position in consideration would probably be Edge and whoever we take there would play maybe 50% of snaps at either Edge spot if Lawson comes back healthy enough.