Will Wilson pass for more than 4007 yards this season? (and 4 other questions)

[Sarge4Tide]

1 - Will Zach Wilson pass for more than 4,007 yards this season and break the team record held by Joe Namath since 1967? (He will have to average 236 yds per game if he plays all 17 games)

2 - Will Zach Wilson pass for more than 30 TDs this season and break the team record held by Ryan Fitzpatrick since 2015? (He will have to average 1.82 TDs per game if he plays all 17 games)

3 - Will anyone score more than 14 rushing TDs this season and break the team record held by Thomas Jones since 2009? (Only needs to average .88 TDs per game if they play all 17 games)

4 - Will anyone score more than 14 receiving TDs this season and break the team record held by Brandon Marshall, Art Powell and Don Maynard? (Only needs to average .88 TDs per game if they play all 17 games)

5 - Emerson Boozer holds the Jets record for most yards rushing in a season by someone wearing the number 32 - 831 yards in 1973 - will rookie RB Michael Carter run for more than 831 yards in 2021?

[docdhc]

It took Joe 14 games and Zach has 17 so I think that’s the only possible one of the 4 questions. 

[Irish Jet]

1. Unlikely

2. Unlikely

3. No

4. No

5. Unlikely

[Joe W. Namath]

Zach Wilson will break every record Justin Herbert set last year.

No one will score more then 14 tds.

Michael Carter will rush for over 1,000 yards this year.

 

[More Cowbell]

I think Saleh will try to establish the Jets as a running team so if Wilson even sniffs any of those records, I will mean our running game was just not there. I mean for him to throw for 4000+ and 30 TD's would mean they are playing him like the Packers played with Favre, heavily leaning on the QB. 

I also don't  think the rushing records will fall. We are going to run a committee backfield.  

[Warfish]

The extra game (17 now instead of 16) makes all more possible, but I voted "No chance" on all items.  Just don't see it happening.

[ncjetman]

wilson has potential to throw 30 td’s but coaching scheme ( at least this season) will emphasize running game - could see throwing 24tds to 12int and if completion % is 65% plus then an excellent rookie season and hallelujah we have our franchise qb - running game by committee so no records broken their either


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[32EBoozer]

1 hour ago, Sarge4Tide said:

5 - Emerson Boozer holds the Jets record for most yards rushing in a season by someone wearing the number 32 - 831 yards in 1973 - will rookie RB Michael Carter run for more than 831 yards in 2021?

How dare you! I demand you take this off the polling immediately! I'm headed to the Ring of Honor and Jersey retirement.

[Embrace the Suck]

All of those items are brought that much closer into reach with a 17th game. The 4000 yards doesn't seem like much (235 per game). The 30 tds is more of a challenge, but doable (just under 2 per game). To rush for a 1000 you only need to average (58.8 per game) to break 831 you only need to average 49 per game. The Jets with a much better oline and lots of toys for the qb should be able to hit those numbers in a more uptempo game with an extra game to play.

[JustInFudge]

Possible, but nah and no chance on the rest.

[Embrace the Suck]

18 minutes ago, ncjetman said:

wilson has potential to throw 30 td’s but coaching scheme ( at least this season) will emphasize running game - could see throwing 24tds to 12int and if completion % is 65% plus then an excellent rookie season and hallelujah we have our franchise qb - running game by committee so no records broken their either


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That's fair, but I think the strong run game will open up the passing game. I think our coaching staff will be happy to call passing plays as the opposition tries to shut down the run with a loaded box initially. I don't see this team blindly throwing a rb into a wall play after play if the holes aren't there. I see this team establishing a run game, as you said, when they can and then hitting the other team with lots of play action as well as mixing in a lot of 3+ wr formations to keep the other team guessing and off balance.

[Lith]

1 & 2 possible but no.  17th game makes it possible if he stays healthy.  But if this team is going to be successful this season, we are likely to feature a good running game, play action, and the occasional shot deep to loosen up defenses.  If we fall behind in a lot of games, we will have to throw more than we want, increasing chances of reaching these milestones.  So I hope we are playing with leads, running the ball, and pressure is not on Zach to be prolific as a rookie.

3. No chance with RB by committee

4. No chance.  Ii expect us to spread the ball around with 4 or 5 solid, not spectacular receivers.  Don't see anyone approaching 14 TDs.

5. Possible but no.  RB by committee, rookie will have to earn touches.  Don't see him getting enough carries to hit 831.

 

[jgb]

2021 Jets:

-Offense > defense

-passing offense > rushing offense 

[Embrace the Suck]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

2021 Jets:

-Offense > defense

-passing offense > rushing offense 

[Doggin94it]

56 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The extra game (17 now instead of 16) makes all more possible, but I voted "No chance" on all items.  Just don't see it happening.

I mean, the 49ers passing game hovered around 4000 yards from 2018-2020, and that's with injured/bad QB play and mediocre receivers, so it's possible. I don't think it'll happen, but the offense gives it a theoretical chance. The TDs are impossible

[TheClashFan]

Yeah, I had to go with a lot of "no" answers here.  Some are but just unlikely.

 

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, More Cowbell said:

I think Saleh will try to establish the Jets as a running team so if Wilson even sniffs any of those records, I will mean our running game was just not there. I mean for him to throw for 4000+ and 30 TD's would mean they are playing him like the Packers played with Favre, heavily leaning on the QB. 

I also don't  think the rushing records will fall. We are going to run a committee backfield.  

This seems to be a misconception of the offense we run. 

It is a run focused offense but not remotely in the way it is being perceived. There are essentially three running game philosophies in the NFL:

1. Ground and Pound style like Rex and teams of old. Running way more than 50% of first and second downs and passing on third down. Usually long.

2. "Shanahan style" 

3. Pass first to set up the run.

We will be running the second one, but with our personnel we will be more like GB than SF. LaFleur has already stated this, that in "live" sessions he wound up in 11 personnel way more than normal because it fit our playmakers.

It is a play action passing offence. Play action means little on 3rd down so on first and second down we will be very balanced between run and pass. Zach will likely pass more on first down than any of the offenses we have had in recent memory. Certainly more than Sam did. 

In this philosophy 3rd down is also more balanced so Zach will throw possibly less on 3rd down. This where the "running focus" comes into play in the system we will run. We will want to use balance to set up running on 3rd down more. In a way it is a more passing focused attack than some vertical schemes with lots of shorter YAC oriented plays off simple reads.

The fact that the passing is oriented more towards early downs and from play action is what makes the offense easier on younger players. 

There is NOTHING worse than a Rex type ground and pound attack which consistently puts a young QB in bad situations trying to convert lots of 3rd and longs where the pass is obvious.

Plus we are actually strong at WR, possibly very strong, and with offensive coaches that are not idiots it will  lead to more passing sets and more passing in general. They are going to let Zach play.

I will be surprised if he does not pass for 4000 yards. He is not Darnold or Sanchez and has a better offense around him than both.

 

[Joe W. Namath]

7 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

This seems to be a misconception of the offense we run. 

It is a run focused offense but not remotely in the way it is being perceived. There are essentially three running game philosophies in the NFL:

1. Ground and Pound style like Rex and teams of old. Running way more than 50% of first and second downs and passing on third down. Usually long.

2. "Shanahan style" 

3. Pass first to set up the run.

We will be running the second one, but with our personnel we will be more like GB than SF. LaFleur has already stated this, that in "live" sessions he wound up in 11 personnel way more than normal because it fit our playmakers.

It is a play action passing offence. Play action means little on 3rd down so on first and second down we will be very balanced between run and pass. Zach will likely pass more on first down than any of the offenses we have had in recent memory. Certainly more than Sam did. 

In this philosophy 3rd down is also more balanced so Zach will throw possibly less on 3rd down. This where the "running focus" comes into play in the system we will run. We will want to use balance to set up running on 3rd down more. In a way it is a more passing focused attack than some vertical schemes with lots of shorter YAC oriented plays off simple reads.

The fact that the passing is oriented more towards early downs and from play action is what makes the offense easier on younger players. 

There is NOTHING worse than a Rex type ground and pound attack which consistently puts a young QB in bad situations trying to convert lots of 3rd and longs where the pass is obvious.

Plus we are actually strong at WR, possibly very strong, and with offensive coaches that are not idiots it will  lead to more passing sets and more passing in general. They are going to let Zach play.

I will be surprised if he does not pass for 4000 yards. He is not Darnold or Sanchez and has a better offense around him than both.

 

Correct.  Zach is a gunslinger.  If you dont think he is going to throw for more then 235 yards a game, go watch more of his college tape.  He is going to be slinging it all over the field.

[chirorob]

Well, they have said that they want to do the running back by committee, so any of the running back questions are pretty much a no.

Honestly, with an extra game, and how much running backs get beat up, it makes more sense than ever to take that approach.

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, More Cowbell said:

I think Saleh will try to establish the Jets as a running team so if Wilson even sniffs any of those records, I will mean our running game was just not there. I mean for him to throw for 4000+ and 30 TD's would mean they are playing him like the Packers played with Favre, heavily leaning on the QB. 

I also don't  think the rushing records will fall. We are going to run a committee backfield.  

Or it means that teams were stacking the box and daring Zach to beat them through the air, which by breaking the record, he would have.

[UntouchableCrew]

With 17 games, an offense similar to the one he ran in college and QBs being effective right away I said "unlikely but maybe" to the passing yards and passing TDs. I'd bet against it but I wouldn't be shocked if he did -- and if he does it's a fantastic sign for us.

The rushing stats seem like obvious "no chances." We're not gonna feed one RB enough.

Receiving stat seems unlikely as well.

[Bleedin Green]

I'm optimistic about Wilson for his career, but expecting him to break either record in his rookie year is a bit of a tall order.  Here's hoping we all are given reason to feel it is very likely to happen in one of his future seasons.

For the skill position players, one of the best things the Jets have going for them there this year is a very wide range of talent, giving them the opportunity to use many different players to their strengths.  It's a nice luxury to finally have, but also means there's only so many opportunities a single player will get, which makes hitting any of those numbers extremely difficult unless anyone has such a huge year to completely separate themselves from the rest (e.g., Carter turning out to be far better than anyone, including the Jets, ever thought he would be).

[More Cowbell]

5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

This seems to be a misconception of the offense we run. 

It is a run focused offense but not remotely in the way it is being perceived. There are essentially three running game philosophies in the NFL:

1. Ground and Pound style like Rex and teams of old. Running way more than 50% of first and second downs and passing on third down. Usually long.

2. "Shanahan style" 

3. Pass first to set up the run.

We will be running the second one, but with our personnel we will be more like GB than SF. LaFleur has already stated this, that in "live" sessions he wound up in 11 personnel way more than normal because it fit our playmakers.

It is a play action passing offence. Play action means little on 3rd down so on first and second down we will be very balanced between run and pass. Zach will likely pass more on first down than any of the offenses we have had in recent memory. Certainly more than Sam did. 

In this philosophy 3rd down is also more balanced so Zach will throw possibly less on 3rd down. This where the "running focus" comes into play in the system we will run. We will want to use balance to set up running on 3rd down more. In a way it is a more passing focused attack than some vertical schemes with lots of shorter YAC oriented plays off simple reads.

The fact that the passing is oriented more towards early downs and from play action is what makes the offense easier on younger players. 

There is NOTHING worse than a Rex type ground and pound attack which consistently puts a young QB in bad situations trying to convert lots of 3rd and longs where the pass is obvious.

Plus we are actually strong at WR, possibly very strong, and with offensive coaches that are not idiots it will  lead to more passing sets and more passing in general. They are going to let Zach play.

I will be surprised if he does not pass for 4000 yards. He is not Darnold or Sanchez and has a better offense around him than both.

 

This all sounds good but a lot of what you are describing then relates to how well the WR can get open and make plays. I know a lot of people are excited about Moore but there were a lot of Raider fans excited about Ruggs who basically was invisible all last season. Also not really sure about Davis and Cole. I just hope they all play well and we can do what you described. 

[More Cowbell]

5 hours ago, Claymation said:

Or it means that teams were stacking the box and daring Zach to beat them through the air, which by breaking the record, he would have.

They will only stack the box of they don't  respect the passing game. If they have good reason to stack the box, Zack probably sucks.

[JohnnyLV]

53 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

This all sounds good but a lot of what you are describing then relates to how well the WR can get open and make plays. I know a lot of people are excited about Moore but there were a lot of Raider fans excited about Ruggs who basically was invisible all last season. Also not really sure about Davis and Cole. I just hope they all play well and we can do what you described. 

Well that's true but to be honest Mims and Crowder and even Berrios were getting open a lot and Sam didn't throw to them often, he had terrible field vision from the pocket. We could have a very very good receiving corps this year with Berrios going from like our #2 to #6

[thebuzzardman]

8 NFL rookie QB's have passed for 3700 or more yards. With the extra 17th game, there's a chance some of them might have joined the 4 who did pass for 4000 yards. 

Luck/Herbert/Winston/Newton

It would be very impressive for Zach and the Jets to hit 4000. 

I think he does it.

 

Needs to average 235 a game and play every game, instead of 250 per game and play every game. 

 

 

[Snell41]

No chance on any of these. None.


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[NYJ1]

Not likely, no, no, not likely, yes

I found most of these questions silly. I love the optimism but this team, while improved, is still pretty bad. The only thing I can see happening this season is Carter, barring injury, breaks the 831 yard mark. That's not a very high number that was done during a 14 game season I believe? Meanwhile, Carter has 3 more games to surpass that mark. Not everyone can be Justin Herbert as a rookie and I don't believe Zach Wilson will be either...

[32EBoozer]

Optimistic Jets (@OptimisticJets) Tweeted:
Zach Wilson and Elijah Moore are together in Florida putting in work before training camp ?

#Jets https://t.co/TBfJ0PSZ9l
 

 

[NYJ1]

On 7/16/2021 at 12:28 PM, Joe W. Namath said:

Correct.  Zach is a gunslinger.  If you dont think he is going to throw for more then 235 yards a game, go watch more of his college tape.  He is going to be slinging it all over the field.

Lafleur is going to put the handcuffs on him so he can gradually be brought into the game. He's not going to let Wilson go wild on the field so he can throw 20 interceptions and ruin his confidence. That's silly. So although I agree Zach is a gunslinger, Lafleur is not going to allow him to go wild and unfettered. Too much room for disaster that way....

[GangGreened]

Guess it’s possible, but no.

[The Crusher]

On 7/16/2021 at 11:35 AM, JiFapono said:

Possible, but nah and no chance on the rest.

Whatever he does he will look good doing it. Bet on that. 

[Defense Wins Championships]

Rookie Justin Herbert threw for 4,336 yards last year. 

With 17 games all Zach Wilson has to do is average 235.2 yards per game (for 4,000 yards passing).

I'll become very disappointed if Zach Wilson isn't able to average 235 passing yards per game...

I think he shatters it. 

[Mogglez]

On 7/16/2021 at 10:57 AM, Warfish said:

The extra game (17 now instead of 16) makes all more possible, but I voted "No chance" on all items.  Just don't see it happening.

Yup.  However, this scheme is a pretty balanced offense even when veterans are running it, let alone a rookie.  I say mid to high 3,000 this year for Zach and “No chance” for everything else.

[Defense Wins Championships]

2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Yup.  However, this scheme is a pretty balanced offense even when veterans are running it, let alone a rookie.  I say mid to high 3,000 this year.

If Zach Wilson finishes mid 3,000's ala 3,500 yards that's only an average of 205 passing yards per game and I'd become disheartened. 

Rookie Mark Sanchez of 2009 did not play within a balanced Offense. He played in a run heavy and run first dominant running offense (who ranked #1 in rushing attempts and 32nd dead last in passing attempts) 

Sanchez of 2009 = 162.9 Passing Yards Per game. 

If Zach Wilson is who we think he is and Mike LaFleur is creative as we think he is well then 240-260 passing yards per game (4,008-4,420) should become the bare minimum expectation (imo). 

And imo the only way Zach Wilson doesn't destroy 4,000+ passing yards alongside of Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder and Michael Carter (awesome @ pass catching out of the backfield) is if he unfortunately gets hurt and doesn't play every game due to an injury...