Will Wilson pass for more than 4007 yards this season? (and 4 other questions)

[FidelioJet]

5 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

If Zach Wilson finishes mid 3,000's ala 3,500 yards that's only an average of 205 passing yards per game and I'd become disheartened. 

Rookie Mark Sanchez of 2009 did not play within a balanced Offense. He played in a run heavy and run first dominant running offense (who ranked #1 in rushing attempts and 32nd dead last in passing attempts) 

Sanchez of 2009 = 162.9 Passing Yards Per game. 

If Zach Wilson is who we think he is and Mike LaFleur is creative as we think he is well then 240-260 passing yards per game (4,008-4,420) should become the bare minimum expectation (imo). 

And imo the only way Zach Wilson doesn't destroy 4,000+ passing yards alongside of Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder and Michael Carter (awesome @ pass catching out of the backfield) is if he unfortunately gets hurt and doesn't play every game due to an injury...

IMHO, That's just the wrong way to look at it.

ZW is a rookie QB, taking over what's been the worst offense in the NFL for the past two years.  Coming into a new coaching staff, system and the youngest roster in the NFL.

To expect him to throw for 4,000 is bad enough but to be "disheartened" if he doesn't is, IMO, a massive overreacting.

He's quite unlikely to throw for 4,000 yards, yet I expect him to have an impressive rookie season.

He'll shine but it's an uphill battle with this team right now.  I love the youth and the potential this year but you don't go from the worst offense in the league for two years straight and all of a sudden expect a rookie QB to throw for 4,000 yards.

Mark Sanchez was on a loaded team - it was the best running game, OL and defense in the league - to compare what Mark had to what ZW has is just, IMO, Silly.

[Mogglez]

10 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

If Zach Wilson finishes mid 3,000's ala 3,500 yards that's only an average of 205 passing yards per game and I'd become disheartened. 

Rookie Mark Sanchez of 2009 did not play within a balanced Offense. He played in a run heavy and run first dominant running offense (who ranked #1 in rushing attempts and 32nd dead last in passing attempts) 

Sanchez of 2009 = 162.9 Passing Yards Per game. 

If Zach Wilson is who we think he is and Mike LaFleur is creative as we think he is well then 240-260 passing yards per game (4,008-4,420) should become the bare minimum expectation (imo). 

And imo the only way Zach Wilson doesn't destroy 4,000+ passing yards alongside of Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder and Michael Carter (awesome @ pass catching out of the backfield) is if he unfortunately gets hurt and doesn't play every game due to an injury...

We’ll see.  Fitz didn’t hit in 2015, but the one game could make a difference that puts Zach over the top.  I expect us to be a pretty run heavy team too.

[Mogglez]

1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

IMHO, That's just the wrong way to look at it.

ZW is a rookie QB, taking over what's been the worst offense in the NFL for the past two years.  Coming into a new coaching staff, system and the youngest roster in the NFL.

To expect him to throw for 4,000 is bad enough but to be "disheartened" if he doesn't is, IMO, a massive overreacting.

He's quite unlikely to throw for 4,000 yards, yet I expect him to have an impressive rookie season.

He'll shine but it's an uphill battle with this team right now.  I love the youth and the potential this year but you don't go from the worst offense in the league for two years straight and all of a sudden expect a rookie QB to throw for 4,000 yards.

Mark Sanchez was on a loaded team - it was the best running game, OL and defense in the league - to compare what Mark had to what ZW has is just, IMO, Silly.

This.

[FidelioJet]

1 minute ago, Mogglez said:

We’ll see.  Fitz didn’t hit in 2015, but the one game could make a difference that puts Zach over the top.  I expect us to be a pretty run heavy team too.

Yea, I expect a running team with a quick hit passing game.

I truly believe he has ALL of the tools to be a top 5 QB in this league but it will ultimately come down to the OL....particularly early in his career. 

Give this kid time and chance to learn how to be an NFL QB and we'll be perennial playoff team for 15 years.

[Defense Wins Championships]

15 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

IMHO, That's just the wrong way to look at it.

ZW is a rookie QB, taking over what's been the worst offense in the NFL for the past two years.  Coming into a new coaching staff, system and the youngest roster in the NFL.

To expect him to throw for 4,000 is bad enough but to be "disheartened" if he doesn't is, IMO, a massive overreacting.

He's quite unlikely to throw for 4,000 yards, yet I expect him to have an impressive rookie season.

He'll shine but it's an uphill battle with this team right now.  I love the youth and the potential this year but you don't go from the worst offense in the league for two years straight and all of a sudden expect a rookie QB to throw for 4,000 yards.

Mark Sanchez was on a loaded team - it was the best running game, OL and defense in the league - to compare what Mark had to what ZW has is just, IMO, Silly.

Good post man great post it's just I haven't enjoyed a Jets QB since Chad Pennington (before injury); and my patience is running out. Well said though. 

[rangerous]

maybe 4007 yards isn't a pass happy attack but i think if zwill passes that much then they won't be winning many games.  i think he needs to be kept to around 30 pass attempts per game and if he hits on 20 then that's closer to 3500 yards.  that's a solid number if coupled to a run game.  can't wait.

[jgb]

2 hours ago, rangerous said:

maybe 4007 yards isn't a pass happy attack but i think if zwill passes that much then they won't be winning many games.  i think he needs to be kept to around 30 pass attempts per game and if he hits on 20 then that's closer to 3500 yards.  that's a solid number if coupled to a run game.  can't wait.

I think there's a chance Wilson has a top-ten rookie season by number of attempts. I do not trust this ground game to sustain drives.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

I think there's a chance Wilson has a top-ten rookie season by number of attempts. I do not trust this ground game to sustain drives.

The personnel isn't trustworthy, at least not yet, but the system is.  That gives me hope.  

[section314]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

I think there's a chance Wilson has a top-ten rookie season by number of attempts. I do not trust this ground game to sustain drives.

What you're really saying is you don't trust the OLine. correct?

[rangerous]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

I think there's a chance Wilson has a top-ten rookie season by number of attempts. I do not trust this ground game to sustain drives.

maybe ground game isn't right word.  i think maybe short game is better with lots of slants and quick passes to the backs in the flat.  as for the run game proper, i can't see how it can't be good given becton, and avt leading on the left side.  this has the makings of a really good oline.

[jgb]

29 minutes ago, rangerous said:

maybe ground game isn't right word.  i think maybe short game is better with lots of slants and quick passes to the backs in the flat.  as for the run game proper, i can't see how it can't be good given becton, and avt leading on the left side.  this has the makings of a really good oline.

I agree. In the wild and whacky prediction thread I "predicted" that jets RBs will combine for more air than ground yards. Largely from being used as you suggest.

[jgb]

1 hour ago, section314 said:

What you're really saying is you don't trust the OLine. correct?

I guess I mean the entire running game apparatus. Plus certainly teams will load the box until and unless Wilson asserts himself as a credible passer. If things go well, the running game will open as year goes on.

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The personnel isn't trustworthy, at least not yet, but the system is.  That gives me hope.  

Fair!

[slats]

The Jets have a rookie OC who’s never called plays before. The influx of talent we're all excited about are mostly rookies, including the QB, obviously. I know this board already has AVT in the HoF but, maybe, we could pump the breaks on that a bit. Same with Moore, who I’m definitely excited about but is still a smaller guy that a lot of people think of as primary a slot. And the MC1 hype is a little ridiculous for a fourth round pick. Veterans miss assignments when installing new systems, commit penalties. There are going to be serious growing pains this year. 
 
I also think that because it’s an installation year in which most sane people have zero playoff expectations for the Jets that LaFluer will be looking to stick to his principles. So while he’ll be playing a lot more 11 personnel than he might like due to where the talent lies on this team’s offense, he’s still going to focus on the running game and establishing that attitude from the OL back. I expect the RBs to be a committee, with the hot hand getting the ball - but I also recognize that I may be projecting. Still, I see no bell cow back on this roster, just a nice set of fresh legs. 
 
Expecting records to be broken is setting oneself up for disappointment, imho. Zach breaking 4007 may be the best shot, but I just feel like they’ll be so determined to run the ball that that just isn’t likely. Also think the defense will be better than some believe, as they did good work on the front four - which is what makes this defense work. So I’m not expecting many shoot-outs. 

[UntouchableCrew]

To throw a little context out there -- only four QBs in history have had 4k yards as a rookie and only one has done it with a passer rating over 90.

[Chrebetfan80]

On 7/16/2021 at 10:50 AM, Joe W. Namath said:

Zach Wilson will break every record Justin Herbert set last year.

No one will score more then 14 tds.

Michael Carter will rush for over 1,000 yards this year.

 

I wanted to give Carter over 1000, i just dont know if he'll get the touches to do it, it'll be close I think though.  I just suspect we're going to be such an RB committee team that every guy will put up good numbers but going to be hard hitting 1k with so many guys to carry it.  

[jgb]

26 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

To throw a little context out there -- only four QBs in history have had 4k yards as a rookie and only one has done it with a passer rating over 90.

So you're saying it's gonna happen!

-Jets fans who think the existence of outliers equal destiny for QBs.

[rangerous]

34 minutes ago, slats said:

The Jets have a rookie OC who’s never called plays before. The influx of talent we're all excited about are mostly rookies, including the QB, obviously. I know this board already has AVT in the HoF but, maybe, we could pump the breaks on that a bit. Same with Moore, who I’m definitely excited about but is still a smaller guy that a lot of people think of as primary a slot. And the MC1 hype is a little ridiculous for a fourth round pick. Veterans miss assignments when installing new systems, commit penalties. There are going to be serious growing pains this year. 
 
I also think that because it’s an installation year in which most sane people have zero playoff expectations for the Jets that LaFluer will be looking to stick to his principles. So while he’ll be playing a lot more 11 personnel than he might like due to where the talent lies on this team’s offense, he’s still going to focus on the running game and establishing that attitude from the OL back. I expect the RBs to be a committee, with the hot hand getting the ball - but I also recognize that I may be projecting. Still, I see no bell cow back on this roster, just a nice set of fresh legs. 
 
Expecting records to be broken is setting oneself up for disappointment, imho. Zach breaking 4007 may be the best shot, but I just feel like they’ll be so determined to run the ball that that just isn’t likely. Also think the defense will be better than some believe, as they did good work on the front four - which is what makes this defense work. So I’m not expecting many shoot-outs. 

i'm not so sure play calling is really that important. it is when teams get broken down and show tendencies but as for actually calling the play, i'm not so sure there's any set right way.  how many plays did the lombardi packers have?  granted it was a different era but lombardi's teams knew how ro execute their power sweeps and it brought them a number of championships.  i'm hoping the same thing from saleh.  i hope he can get this team to execute well on each and every play.  there's something to be said for a team that thinks they can beat the other team on every play.