Predicting Zach Wilson's Stat Line

[bla bla bla]

For those who don't want to watch, I looked at Jimmy G and Matt Ryan in their first seasons with Kyle Shanahan and tried to formulate a realistic Stat line for Zach Wilson.

We are gonna look at competition %, Yards per Attempt, Yards per Game, QBR, TD% (percentage of passing touchdowns when looking at total attempts) and INT% (percentage of INTs when looking at total attempts). This isn't really an exact science just some off season free time haha

 

Matt Ryan

Comp %: 66%

Yards per Attempt: 7.5

Yards per Game: 287

QBR: 64.1

TD %: 3.4

INT %: 2.6

 

Jimmy G

Comp %: 67%

Yards per Attempt: 8.8

Yards per Game: 260

QBR: 82.7

TD %: 3.9

INT %: 2.8

 

Zach Wilson

Comp %: 67%

Yards per Attempt: 8

Yards per Game: 250

QBR: 75

TD %: 3.5

INT %: 2.8

 

Jimmy G has only had 1 season with 16 games and had just under 500 attempts where as Matt Ryan's first year in the system he had 620ish attempts. When factoring the 17th game this year I figured we may see 500 pass attempts from Wilson. 

66% Comp

8 Y/A

250 Y/G

4,250 Yards

17 TD

14 INT

 

I'm sure he'll add more stats in the rushing department as I consider him far more mobile than Jimmy G or Ryan but I think this is a relatively conservative stat line if he plays in all 17 games. The 4,250 Yards is the stat I think a lot of people will think is outlandish but when you consider Sam's career best was 232 per Game I think it seems a little more attainable.

[Defense Wins Championships]

@bla bla bla

Zach Wilson: 2021

4,120 passing yards (242 passing yards per game).

595 rushing yards (35 rushing yards per game because this kid has flat out WHEELS).

7.5 yards per pass attempt. 

(4 300+ yard passing games). 

28 TDs / 9 INTs. 

63.7% completion percentage.

QB Rating of 92.7. 

12 wins (12-5). 

Rookie of the Year. 

(Playing behind Becton/Vera-Tucker/Moses and alongside Davis/Mims/Elijah/Crowder and Carter = An unstoppable Rookie QB).

[JohnnyLV]

4 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

For those who don't want to watch, I looked at Jimmy G and Matt Ryan in their first seasons with Kyle Shanahan and tried to formulate a realistic Stat line for Zach Wilson.

We are gonna look at competition %, Yards per Attempt, Yards per Game, QBR, TD% (percentage of passing touchdowns when looking at total attempts) and INT% (percentage of INTs when looking at total attempts). This isn't really an exact science just some off season free time haha

 

Matt Ryan

Comp %: 66%

Yards per Attempt: 7.5

Yards per Game: 287

QBR: 64.1

TD %: 3.4

INT %: 2.6

 

Jimmy G

Comp %: 67%

Yards per Attempt: 8.8

Yards per Game: 260

QBR: 82.7

TD %: 3.9

INT %: 2.8

 

Zach Wilson

Comp %: 67%

Yards per Attempt: 8

Yards per Game: 250

QBR: 75

TD %: 3.5

INT %: 2.8

 

Jimmy G has only had 1 season with 16 games and had just under 500 attempts where as Matt Ryan's first year in the system he had 620ish attempts. When factoring the 17th game this year I figured we may see 500 pass attempts from Wilson. 

66% Comp

8 Y/A

250 Y/G

4,250 Yards

17 TD

14 INT

 

I'm sure he'll add more stats in the rushing department as I consider him far more mobile than Jimmy G or Ryan but I think this is a relatively conservative stat line if he plays in all 17 games. The 4,250 Yards is the stat I think a lot of people will think is outlandish but when you consider Sam's career best was 232 per Game I think it seems a little more attainable.

Zach will be better than that

[GreenFish]

There’s the rookie factor that you need to consider. Ryan and Jimmy G were both a few years into their careers at that point.

I wouldn’t expect him to be as efficient but I still think 4,000 yards is attainable giving the 17 games. 

[Lupz27]

Only one stat that matters Dubs.

[greenwichjetfan]

9 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

@bla bla bla

Zach Wilson: 2021

4,120 passing yards (242 passing yards per game).

595 rushing yards (35 rushing yards per game because this kid has flat out WHEELS).

7.5 yards per pass attempt. 

(4 300+ yard passing games). 

28 TDs / 9 INTs. 

63.7% completion percentage.

QB Rating of 92.7. 

12 wins (12-5). 

Rookie of the Year. 

(Playing behind Becton/Vera-Tucker/Moses and alongside Davis/Mims/Elijah/Crowder and Carter = An unstoppable Rookie QB).

Nothing screams flat out WHEEELS like 35 yards rushing per game!

[FidelioJet]

39 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Only one stat that matters Dubs.

I couldn't disagree with this statement more.

This year isn't about wins an losses it's about developing the youngest roster in the NFL.

We're going to have, at a minimum, 6 new starters on offense, in a new system with a rookie QB.  To says "Dubs" is the only stat that matters is really missing the big picture here.

[Defense Wins Championships]

1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

I couldn't disagree with this statement more.

This year isn't about wins an losses it's about developing the youngest roster in the NFL.

We're going to have, at a minimum, 6 new starters on offense, in a new system with a rookie QB.  To says "Dubs" is the only stat that matters is really missing the big picture here.

Well said man. 

QB: Zach Wilson. 

RB: Michael Carter. 

WR: Corey Davis. 

WR: Elijah Moore. 

LG: Alijah Vera-Tucker. 

RT: Morgan Moses. 

I'm assuming these are the 6 new starters you're referring to and also keep in mind both Mekhi Becton and Denzel Mims are only heading into their 2nd season. 

I really believe we can make the playoffs (just like we did in 2009) but no, I'm not expecting it because I'll understand if we fall short but I can't lie I'm fired up. 

[Warfish]

17 vs. 16 games makes this a little bit harder....

I'll say:

~58% Completion %

~3,700-3,800 passing yards.

~25-28 TD's

~20-25 INT's

QB Rating somewhere between 80-85 or so.

And that is all being VERY optimistic IMO.

[Defense Wins Championships]

@undertow

 

.  @Darnold Schwarzenegger

 @GangGreened

I see all 3 of you HaHaLOL ? laughed at my post without a single prediction of your own. 

Care to make your own Zach Wilson statistical predictions for 2021 or do the 3 of you just not have one?

I'm seriously anxious and curious to see what types of numbers you wise guys are predicting?

(This way we can bump @ end of season and see who's got the last ?).

[undertow]

5,000 yards for Wilson, 1500 yards for Carter, and 1000 yards for Mims , Moore, and Davis.....Super Bowl baby greatest offense in Jets history woot woot.

[Defense Wins Championships]

2 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Nothing screams flat out WHEEELS like 35 yards rushing per game!

He ran a 4.44 in the 40-yard dash, which according to Adam Schefter, would be the fastest time by a QB picked in the first round since Robert Griffin III's 4.41 at the Combine in 2012.

If that's not QB wheels I'm not sure what is and not many NFL QBs run for 595-600 during a single season. I'm not expecting him to become Lamar Jackson but I can picture him becoming Josh Allen once on the run/scramble. 

He actually had 12 games of 25-73 rushing yards throughout his BYU career. 

But yeah.

Please don't nitpick my post (within a QB predictions thread) without first predicting your own stats in other words be your own man, man up and predict your OWN STATS (don't be a coward) while adding some type of insight of your own (if you even have any ?)

[freestater]

~3000yds, 3:2 td/int ratio, 4 rushing tds

[Defense Wins Championships]

4 minutes ago, undertow said:

5,000 yards for Wilson, 1500 yards for Carter, and 1000 yards for Mims , Moore, and Davis.....Super Bowl baby greatest offense in Jets history woot woot.

I never predicted 5,000 yards for Wilson.

I never predicted 1,500 yards for Carter.

I never predicted 1000 yards for Mims.

I never predicted 1000 yards for Moore.

and I never predicted 1000 yards for Davis either.

Never even predicted a top 10 offense.

Never predicted a Jets SB neither (however I'll place a $100 bet on them until the day I die to win the SB in order to give me something to really root for). 

And I bet you can't quote me on any of the above outside of being excited for an offense that's firing me up. 

But yeah. Hate is a strong word but I dislike football "fans" such as yourself. You'll attempt to mock other fans with sarcastic and childish types of posts but yet don't know how to make a football prediction of your own. You'll mock others but yet too scared to put your own thinking cap on and make your own predictions; and that's cowardly. 

So don't be a coward and show me what you've really got. Make a Zach Wilson prediction. 

Passing Yards:

Average yards per pass attempt:

Completion Percentage:

Passing TDs:

INTs thrown:

Rushing Yards:

QB Rating:

Wins. 

Fill in the blanks you big football guru you. 

You can't can you? 

[flgreen]

 

[undertow]

12 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

I never predicted 5,000 yards for Wilson.

I never predicted 1,500 yards for Carter.

I never predicted 1000 yards for Mims.

I never predicted 1000 yards for Moore.

and I never predicted 1000 yards for Davis either.

Never even predicted a top 10 offense.

Never predicted a Jets SB neither (however I'll place a $100 bet on them until the day I die to win the SB in order to give me something to really root for). 

And I bet you can't quote me on any of the above outside of being excited for an offense that's firing me up. 

But yeah. Hate is a strong word but I dislike football "fans" such as yourself. You'll attempt to mock other fans with sarcastic and childish types of posts but yet don't know how to make a football prediction of your own. You'll mock others but yet too scared to put your own thinking cap on and make your own predictions; and that's cowardly. 

So don't be a coward and show me what you've really got. Make a Zach Wilson prediction. 

Passing Yards:

Average yards per pass attempt:

Completion Percentage:

Passing TDs:

INTs thrown:

Rushing Yards:

QB Rating:

Wins. 

Fill in the blanks you big football guru you. 

You can't can you? 

I have no idea WTF you are talking about. lol  You need to take your meds and get out of the house.

[Defense Wins Championships]

33 minutes ago, undertow said:

I have no idea WTF you are talking about. lol  You need to take your meds and get out of the house.

Get out of the house? I've worked from home since beginning of Covid 2020 so I love posting on JN because time goes by fast when having a good time from 9-7 and PS: You should get out of your house because you've got 1k posts in only a couple of months ?

On a more serious note I'm seriously curious to see your Zach Wilson stats because I like you as a football fan and want to see your guru football knowledge. 

Passing Yards:

Average yards per pass attempt:

Completion Percentage:

Passing TDs:

INTs thrown:

Rushing Yards:

QB Rating:

Wins:

Go. Fill in the blanks. Shoot your best shot...

[JohnnyLV]

With the numbers you are predicting most of you must think Zach sucks. And is worse than Mullens.  Really good QBs are more successful today. Right away.

[Buffalo 24 7]

1 hour ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

He ran a 4.44 in the 40-yard dash, which according to Adam Schefter, would be the fastest time by a QB picked in the first round since Robert Griffin III's 4.41 at the Combine in 2012.

If that's not QB wheels I'm not sure what is and not many NFL QBs run for 595-600 during a single season. I'm not expecting him to become Lamar Jackson but I can picture him becoming Josh Allen once on the run/scramble. 

He actually had 12 games of 25-73 rushing yards throughout his BYU career. 

But yeah.

Please don't nitpick my post (within a QB predictions thread) without first predicting your own stats in other words be your own man, man up and predict your OWN STATS (don't be a coward) while adding some type of insight of your own (if you even have any ?)

The 4.44 40 yards dash you are referring to was Justin Fields, not Wilson.

[Defense Wins Championships]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo 24 7 said:

The 4.44 40 yards dash you are referring to was Justin Fields, not Wilson.

You're right I read the wrong article ? he ran a 4.89 so instead of 595 rushing yards I'll predict him @ 425 rushing yards; nonetheless this kid can run. 

[flgreen]

13 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

You're right I read the wrong article ? he ran a 4.89 so instead of 595 rushing yards I'll predict him @ 425 rushing yards; nonetheless this kid can run. 

 He didn’t work out at his pro day but his 40-time is estimated to be in the 4.7 range or thereabouts. He was also a good basketball player in high school.

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2021/5/10/22427836/scouting-jets-quarterback-zach-wilson

[FidelioJet]

2 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

Well said man. 

QB: Zach Wilson. 

RB: Michael Carter. 

WR: Corey Davis. 

WR: Elijah Moore. 

LG: Alijah Vera-Tucker. 

RT: Morgan Moses. 

I'm assuming these are the 6 new starters you're referring to and also keep in mind both Mekhi Becton and Denzel Mims are only heading into their 2nd season. 

I really believe we can make the playoffs (just like we did in 2009) but no, I'm not expecting it because I'll understand if we fall short but I can't lie I'm fired up. 

Yup.  That's 6 at a minimum - with 4 rookies. 

You could easily see RG be a new starter as well.  All in a new system.  

There are going to be a lot of bumps in the road with this team.  

IMO the raw talent level / potential on offense is the best this team has had in 30 years....but as of now it's ALL potential and NOTHING more.  

I'm super excited for this season...I can't just wait to watch, Carter, Moore, AVT and ZW on just about every play.  Add in watching Becton hopefully flourish.  

I'm pumped.

[FidelioJet]

17 minutes ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

You're right I read the wrong article ? he ran a 4.89 so instead of 595 rushing yards I'll predict him @ 425 rushing yards; nonetheless this kid can run. 

Actually he said he was running a 4.6 in practice before he tweaked a hammy (I think) and decided not to run.

Now, I don't know if he was lying or not, but just saying.  His 4.89 was HS to get into college.

Watching him play he certainly looks more 4.6 than 4.9. 

[#27TheDominator]

4.89 equates to this kid can run?  I guess I was faster than I thought!

[greenwichjetfan]

44 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

4.89 equates to this kid can run?  I guess I was faster than I thought!

No! 35 yards rushing per game means he can run!

[k-met57]

3000 yards, 23 TD's, 17 picks....hopefully all 17 games.

[Lupz27]

7 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I couldn't disagree with this statement more.

This year isn't about wins an losses it's about developing the youngest roster in the NFL.

We're going to have, at a minimum, 6 new starters on offense, in a new system with a rookie QB.  To says "Dubs" is the only stat that matters is really missing the big picture here.

I’m pretty sure the big picture is all about dubs.

[FidelioJet]

4 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

I’m pretty sure the big picture is all about dubs.

Then you're not seeing it.

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, greenwichjetfan said:

No! 35 yards rushing per game means he can run!

IF he can get 35 ypg at 4.89, I would have been good for at least 43!

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, k-met57 said:

3000 yards, 23 TD's, 17 picks....hopefully all 17 games.

averaging 175 yards or so a game would be bad, even under these circumstances.  He need to do better than that.

[jgb]

11 hours ago, Warfish said:

17 vs. 16 games makes this a little bit harder....

I'll say:

~58% Completion %

~3,700-3,800 passing yards.

~25-28 TD's

~20-25 INT's

QB Rating somewhere between 80-85 or so.

And that is all being VERY optimistic IMO.

 

60.4%, 3497, 20TDs, 15 INTs 

Since Jay Cutler is my comp for Wilson I used Cutler’s second year numbers (his first season as full time starter) subtracted 5% (except INTs) to account for the extra year and then adjusted for a 17 games schedule. Couple other small adjustments but that’s it simplified.

 

[jgb]

22 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

@bla bla bla

Zach Wilson: 2021

4,120 passing yards (242 passing yards per game).

595 rushing yards (35 rushing yards per game because this kid has flat out WHEELS).

7.5 yards per pass attempt. 

(4 300+ yard passing games). 

28 TDs / 9 INTs. 

63.7% completion percentage.

QB Rating of 92.7. 

12 wins (12-5). 

Rookie of the Year. 

(Playing behind Becton/Vera-Tucker/Moses and alongside Davis/Mims/Elijah/Crowder and Carter = An unstoppable Rookie QB).

You are going to be disappointed 

[Defense Wins Championships]

32 minutes ago, jgb said:

You are going to be disappointed 

If you think he's going to toss 15 INTs and only average 205 passing yards per game you're going to be wrong as wrong could possibly become. 

And his single season QB Rating of 196.4 ranks 6th All-Time within NCAA history.

And he just posted a completion percentage of 73.5%.

So if you think he's going to only throw @ 60.4% you're going to become wrong as wrong could be especially within a Mike LaFleur led offensive west coast attack.

Even a turnover dumber than a box of rocks Jameis Winston threw @ 58.3% during his rookie season. 

Herbert = 66.6%.

Joe Burrow = 65.3%.

Murray = 64.4%.

Tua = 64.1.

Marcus Mariota = 62.2%.

And even Sam Darnold behind the worst O-Line in Football with no Becton/Vera-Tucker/Moses and also no Corey Davis/Denzel Mims/Elijah Moore/Jamison Crowder and also no Michael Carter as a Rookie still had a completion percentage of 57.7% etc. 

So if you believe ZACH WILSON is going to struggle to reach "60.4" you're greatly mistaken. 

You have him at 20 TDs. 

I have him @ 28. 

You have him @ 205 passing yards per game and I have him @ 242 passing yards per game and I know he'll do MUCH BETTER than you're saying he will. 

[jgb]

6 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

If you think he's going to toss 15 INTs and only average 205 passing yards per game you're going to be wrong as wrong could possibly become. 

And his single season QB Rating of 196.4 ranks 6th All-Time within NCAA history.

And he just posted a completion percentage of 73.5%.

So if you think he's going to only throw @ 60.4% you're going to become wrong as wrong could be especially within a Mike LaFleur led offensive west coast attack.

Even a turnover dumber than a box of rocks Jameis Winston threw @ 58.3% during his rookie season. 

Herbert = 66.6%.

Joe Burrow = 65.3%.

Murray = 64.4%.

Tua = 64.1.

Marcus Mariota = 62.2%.

And even Sam Darnold behind the worst O-Line in Football with no Becton/Vera-Tucker/Moses and also no Corey Davis/Denzel Mims/Elijah Moore/Jamison Crowder and also no Michael Carter as a Rookie still had a completion percentage of 57.7% etc. 

So if you believe ZACH WILSON is going to struggle to reach "60.4" you're greatly mistaken. 

You have him at 20 TDs. 

I have him @ 28. 

You have him @ 205 passing yards per game and I have him @ 242 passing yards per game and I know he'll do MUCH BETTER than you're saying he will. 

I prefer positive to negative surprises. In theory at least. Been awhile since that’s happened.

[Lupz27]

19 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Then you're not seeing it.

Can’t see it if it doesn’t happen