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Predicting Zach Wilson's Stat Line


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On 7/22/2021 at 11:13 PM, bla bla bla said:

For those who don't want to watch, I looked at Jimmy G and Matt Ryan in their first seasons with Kyle Shanahan and tried to formulate a realistic Stat line for Zach Wilson.

We are gonna look at competition %, Yards per Attempt, Yards per Game, QBR, TD% (percentage of passing touchdowns when looking at total attempts) and INT% (percentage of INTs when looking at total attempts). This isn't really an exact science just some off season free time haha

 

Matt Ryan

Comp %: 66%

Yards per Attempt: 7.5

Yards per Game: 287

QBR: 64.1

TD %: 3.4

INT %: 2.6

 

Jimmy G

Comp %: 67%

Yards per Attempt: 8.8

Yards per Game: 260

QBR: 82.7

TD %: 3.9

INT %: 2.8

 

Zach Wilson

Comp %: 67%

Yards per Attempt: 8

Yards per Game: 250

QBR: 75

TD %: 3.5

INT %: 2.8

 

Jimmy G has only had 1 season with 16 games and had just under 500 attempts where as Matt Ryan's first year in the system he had 620ish attempts. When factoring the 17th game this year I figured we may see 500 pass attempts from Wilson. 

66% Comp

8 Y/A

250 Y/G

4,250 Yards

17 TD

14 INT

 

I'm sure he'll add more stats in the rushing department as I consider him far more mobile than Jimmy G or Ryan but I think this is a relatively conservative stat line if he plays in all 17 games. The 4,250 Yards is the stat I think a lot of people will think is outlandish but when you consider Sam's career best was 232 per Game I think it seems a little more attainable.

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[mention=32668]bla bla bla[/mention]
Zach Wilson: 2021
4,120 passing yards (242 passing yards per game).
595 rushing yards (35 rushing yards per game because this kid has flat out WHEELS).
7.5 yards per pass attempt. 
(4 300+ yard passing games). 
28 TDs / 9 INTs. 
63.7% completion percentage.
QB Rating of 92.7. 
12 wins (12-5). 
Rookie of the Year. 
(Playing behind Becton/Vera-Tucker/Moses and alongside Davis/Mims/Elijah/Crowder and Carter = An unstoppable Rookie QB).

I would worry that if he runs that much he’ll get hurt.


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Great job dude, love your videos. I can't begin to try to predict Zachs exact stat line because it depends on so many other completely unknown factors at this point; New offense, New recievers, do we have a good run game, is the defense better than expected, etc...

The more simple question that I ask myself is, will his rookie year stat line be better than Sam's? Tbh, if his line was the same, except with half the interceptions I'd probably be doing back flips. Well not really, I can't do a flip. Realistically if that happened I'd sit on my couch and throw my arms up with great enthusiasm 

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  • 9 months later...

When do the 2022 predict Zach's stat lines begin... ?  It feels like some predictions floating around now are even lower than the optimistic predictions heading into last season (ie 3,500 yards, 20+ TDs, even though better cast and a hope for full 17 games)

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14 minutes ago, jNYC1 said:

When do the 2022 predict Zach's stat lines begin... ?  It feels like some predictions floating around now are even lower than the optimistic predictions heading into last season (ie 3,500 yards, 20+ TDs, even though better cast and a hope for full 17 games)

Most people are going to guess too high.  It’s going to be less possessions per game and lots of running yards.   

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Still think the Jimmy G comparison is viable. He needs to get up to around that level this year. Jimmy can't stay healthy so he has never gone over 4,000 yards. However, over his 5 years in SF, he has averaged 248yrds/game which over 17 games equates to approximately 4,200.

So (assuming 17 games)

4,000 yards

2:1 INT:TD Ratio

There were a lot of QBs injured last year. But on a yards per game bases, that'll put him in the 12-15 range.

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I like the 4,000 yards min for 17 games:

Implies bare minimum and reasonable receiving yard totals for the skill position groups:

WRs: ~2,600 (for 3 starting WRs that would be 867 receiving yards per receiver)

TEs: ~720 (for 2 starting TEs that would be 360 receiving yards per TE)

RBs: ~680 (for 2 RBs that would be 340 receiving yards per RB)

(Obviously, more skill positions should produce stats in addition to the above)

Also, 235 yds/game should be reasonable in a run heavy offense.

Anything less than 4k and our skill position groups/players will all have terrible stats/production... even at 4K production from starters will look sub-par.

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I think around 4000 yards is a reasonable expectation. 3,800 to 4,200 or so...

But that's a fair neighborhood if this team is healthy.  

Should have a few games over 300 and a few under 200 - but 230 a game would mean ZW made a really nice jump this year and should be reason for excitement from everyone.

Obviously this is one metric in the big scheme of things - but if I had to put a number on it - this feels right.

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Expanding beyond 4,000 yds passing…

Completion % has to be 60% or higher this season… 62% would be a huge leap… (even though it feels low for this type of offense)

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I doubt he breaks 4000 yards, but he might. What I'm really hoping for is more TDs and less INTs. In the end I don't give a crap how many yards passing he has or what his passer rating is, as long as it leads to touchdowns instead of turnovers. Wilson could throw for 5000 yards for all I care, but if he has 10 TDs and 15 INTs it doesn't matter.

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2 minutes ago, Hex said:

I doubt he breaks 4000 yards, but he might. What I'm really hoping for is more TDs and less INTs. In the end I don't give a crap how many yards passing he has or what his passer rating is, as long as it leads to touchdowns instead of turnovers. Wilson could throw for 5000 yards for all I care, but if he has 10 TDs and 15 INTs it doesn't matter.

I hear you.  I care about the yards as way to evaluate the potential of the pass catching weapons and the development of the younger pass catchers.   Modern NFL, 4k yards in passing offense is competent.

Also, selfishly it’s more fun to watch a functioning passing offense in a passing league.  4k might still be on the anemic side but signals we might be able to creep into the top half of the league in total offense.

2:1 TD/INT is the bar that Zach hopefully clears comfortably in season 2.  Last 5 games and rating in red zone make me hopeful.

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1.TD to Interception ratio is important. GreenFish posted 2:1. I agree.

2. He needs to stay on the field all year (Part of that is his O line, but a big part of that is his decision making and off season strength work which is on him). If he stays relatively healthy, 3900 yards should be the minimum expectation if Jets play a run-heavy offense. 

3. His completion percentage is very important. More than half the QBs last year were above 66%. Get there Zach. Stop the bounce passes and work on the short and quick passes.

4. He needs to get into a good rhythm early in games, not starting in Quarter 3. I'd like to see fewer "3 and Outs" in the first half of the game.

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25 minutes ago, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

1.TD to Interception ratio is important. GreenFish posted 2:1. I agree.

2. He needs to stay on the field all year (Part of that is his O line, but a big part of that is his decision making and off season strength work which is on him). If he stays relatively healthy, 3900 yards should be the minimum expectation if Jets play a run-heavy offense. 

3. His completion percentage is very important. More than half the QBs last year were above 66%. Get there Zach. Stop the bounce passes and work on the short and quick passes.

4. He needs to get into a good rhythm early in games, not starting in Quarter 3. I'd like to see fewer "3 and Outs" in the first half of the game.

The stat that more than half of QBs were at 66% or higher completion percentage is an eye opener and a good gut check.

 This type of scheme should have a ton of easy completions (It’s not like the Futuristic Gase offense…)

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Not necessarily full year stats - but a few wish list items:

- 1 or more 300 yd passing days would be nice.

- 1 or more multi-touchdown days with 0 interceptions

- No sacks from running out of bounds, when a throwaway is possible

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If he doesn't set the new yards mark for Jets QBs with AT LEAST 4,008 yards in 17 games with THIS supporting cast of skill players....WRs, TEs and RBs that can all catch and fly, in the 2022 version of Air Assault, two hand touch Football, Zach needs to GTFO. 

 

Period. 

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This offence is going to be run first and play action. I’m going for 3600 and “hoping” for 20 plus TD’s. 
Wilson now has weapons everywhere, no excuses, we find out if he can play.

If he can’t how about a cheeky 3 rounder for Baker Mayfield..

 

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On 7/23/2021 at 11:50 AM, Defense Wins Championships said:

I never predicted 5,000 yards for Wilson.

I never predicted 1,500 yards for Carter.

I never predicted 1000 yards for Mims.

I never predicted 1000 yards for Moore.

and I never predicted 1000 yards for Davis either.

Never even predicted a top 10 offense.

Never predicted a Jets SB neither (however I'll place a $100 bet on them until the day I die to win the SB in order to give me something to really root for). 

And I bet you can't quote me on any of the above outside of being excited for an offense that's firing me up. 

But yeah. Hate is a strong word but I dislike football "fans" such as yourself. You'll attempt to mock other fans with sarcastic and childish types of posts but yet don't know how to make a football prediction of your own. You'll mock others but yet too scared to put your own thinking cap on and make your own predictions; and that's cowardly. 

So don't be a coward and show me what you've really got. Make a Zach Wilson prediction. 

Passing Yards:

Average yards per pass attempt:

Completion Percentage:

Passing TDs:

INTs thrown:

Rushing Yards:

QB Rating:

Wins. 

Fill in the blanks you big football guru you. 

You can't can you? 

We miss you.

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9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It would be quite the feat to throw for 5,000+ yards while only throwing 10 TDs and 15 INTs.

It would be, and not one I wish the Jets QB to have

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The last time we saw DWC he was demanding money back that he donated to Max's wife's cancer fund.

F**k that guy.  

Wow! Yeah, F him!

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22 minutes ago, Boynton Beach Jets said:

I think Zach's numbers will be lower then what being predicted because the Jets will rely heavily on the run and we have such young receivers.  I think Zach will have between 3600-4000 yards passing and completion % around 63%.

This would be a major step forward and very good news for the Jets.

 

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35 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This would be a major step forward and very good news for the Jets.

 

I would hope each year Zach's  numbers would grow as the young receiver and he grow in the system, not fair to give him to high of expectations.  I think he will get there.

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yup.  And to top it off, he accused Max of lying about her cancer diagnosis in order to make money and gain sympathy.  

I still can't get over why somebody would even do that. Especially since he gave money to begin with. What happened that caused such a dramatic change?

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14 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

This offence is going to be run first and play action. I’m going for 3600 and “hoping” for 20 plus TD’s. 
Wilson now has weapons everywhere, no excuses, we find out if he can play.

If he can’t how about a cheeky 3 rounder for Baker Mayfield..

 

We should run no more than 45% of the time on first down.

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