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Predicting Zach Wilson's Stat Line


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18 hours ago, jNYC1 said:

I hear you.  I care about the yards as way to evaluate the potential of the pass catching weapons and the development of the younger pass catchers.   Modern NFL, 4k yards in passing offense is competent.

Also, selfishly it’s more fun to watch a functioning passing offense in a passing league.  4k might still be on the anemic side but signals we might be able to creep into the top half of the league in total offense.

2:1 TD/INT is the bar that Zach hopefully clears comfortably in season 2.  Last 5 games and rating in red zone make me hopeful.

Last year, only the top ten passers hit 4000 yards; that’s not competent, that’s top ten. The top 18 were over 3500. Zach had 2334 over 13 games. Getting to 3500 would be lovely, especially in an offense that figures to be run first. The top 19 hit 65% on completions (Russell Wilson was #20 at 64.8%). The top twelve were 67.2% or higher. I’ll be happy with that 65%, as Zach was bottom of the league with a 55% comp% last year. Middle of the pack in TDs was 20 or 21. That would more than double Zach’s rookie year so, again, fine. I’d love to see a 2:1 TD:int ratio, but I would rather Zach throw more ints in a productive year, then throwing fewer and seeming timid out on the field. I want him to be that gunslinger. Midrange passer rating was Josh Allen/Jared Goff at around 92. That, again, would be a nice jump for Zach, who failed to break 70 in 2021. 
 
I like the optimism and enthusiasm in this thread, but my goals will be a little more realistic. 

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I think we're going to run far less than you guys all think.

Saleh understands and has said as much - that it's very hard to put tougher long drives in the NFL.  

They're going to look to push the ball down the field through the air.  The run game will be there to keep teams honest, it's should be dangerous and force teams to commit safeties inside - but as soon as they do that - you're going to see the speed of our Wilson/Moore begin to expose defenses.

Again, the run game will be very important - but they are going to look for chuck plays too.

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16 hours ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

If he doesn't set the new yards mark for Jets QBs with AT LEAST 4,008 yards in 17 games with THIS supporting cast of skill players....WRs, TEs and RBs that can all catch and fly, in the 2022 version of Air Assault, two hand touch Football, Zach needs to GTFO. 

 

Period. 

I may not feel as strong... but I would hate to be debating whether Zach is the answer after this year.  I think you could plug several stop gap QBs (Gardner Minshew, Jimmy Garrapolo, Jared Goff, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston) on this team and get 4k passing yards in today's NFL (~235 yds/per game)

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11 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Run run pass might be more manageable distances this season lol 

run run pass is the scourge of the NFL especially for younger QBs.  If teams know you will do that you face 7 or 8 in the box continuously and 3rd and long WAY too often. Being slightly biased pass on first down makes it easier to run on 2nd and 3rd for teams that are run biased.

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If Zach is the hard worker that he's reported to be, he'll be demonstrably better than last year and starting getting real good.

Not gonna put much stock into stats. His film and the win column are going to be the biggest indicators. 

If I were to put a stat prediction/expectation I'd just reference Josh Allen's 2nd year, but juice it up a bit because I like our talent on Offense a lot. 

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32 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I think we're going to run far less than you guys all think.

Saleh understands and has said as much - that it's very hard to put tougher long drives in the NFL.  

They're going to look to push the ball down the field through the air.  The run game will be there to keep teams honest, it's should be dangerous and force teams to commit safeties inside - but as soon as they do that - you're going to see the speed of our Wilson/Moore begin to expose defenses.

Again, the run game will be very important - but they are going to look for chuck plays too.

There‘s no doubt that they want to establish some quick strike ability, and they’ve not shied away from drafting home run options the last two years, but they didn’t trade up for the #1 RB in this year’s draft to not run the football. They will want to set that tone on offense, and also try to keep the defense off the field. Moore and Wilson may be able to outrun defenders, but Zach still has to be able to hit them. He was better at the end of the year, but not aggressive. He needs to get that back. I want and expect to see a balanced attack with creative play design and play calling, but I also think we could potentially see as many 200 yard rushing games from Hall and MC2 as we do 300 yard passing games from Zach. And that’ll be okay with me. Key for them to throw more is Zach taking a big step before training camp even starts. Can’t have weeks of “the yips” again. If he can be comfortable throwing the short and medium stuff he should be comfortable with right out of the gate, that’ll go a long way. 

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On 7/23/2021 at 11:50 AM, Defense Wins Championships said:

I never predicted 5,000 yards for Wilson.

I never predicted 1,500 yards for Carter.

I never predicted 1000 yards for Mims.

I never predicted 1000 yards for Moore.

Wow, those are some bold predictions you're making!

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52 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I think we're going to run far less than you guys all think.

Saleh understands and has said as much - that it's very hard to put tougher long drives in the NFL.  

They're going to look to push the ball down the field through the air.  The run game will be there to keep teams honest, it's should be dangerous and force teams to commit safeties inside - but as soon as they do that - you're going to see the speed of our Wilson/Moore begin to expose defenses.

Again, the run game will be very important - but they are going to look for chuck plays too.

I think we're going to be running the ball a lot.  I think we'll be very similar to the SF offense in that regard, except hopefully Zach will be a lot better than Jimmy G.

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I tho Zack played well in preseason and well in that 1st game against Carolina.  but in that Carolina game he had like 5/6 dropped passes or passes that hit the receivers in hand in the 1Q alone.  Plus their number 1 back in that game seemed to be Ty and no running game to speak.  They had like 3 or 4 killer penalties for lining up wrong or other stupid stuff.  He was running for his life on a lot of plays and got sacked like 6x 1 or 2 of which were hard face plants.  All the mistakes, dropped passes, penalties made the rookie have to play from behind on the road in his 1st game which credit to him he held it together and tried to pull a comeback with some really nice passes towards the end. 

With all that said I think the Sacks,  speed of the game, the bad team around him had an effect on his confidence because he seemed to regress week to week after that because the team around him sucked until LaFuer went upstairs (not sure why that made such a difference but I believe it did but a quarter of the season was gone by then I think?). After spending all training camp not getting hit and having a clean pocket in short preseason games the hello to NFL may have been a little much for him or any rookie QB.  Credit to him after taking a beating thru the next few games to the point where he was injured he did come back and play well. 

Did he play well because he got to watch? or maybe the rest of the team stopped being such a train wreck? maybe the OC is just too short to see the field from sideline? who knows but I saw enough to have a good feeling that he will be exciting to watch with some talent around him

 

 

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1 hour ago, slats said:

There‘s no doubt that they want to establish some quick strike ability, and they’ve not shied away from drafting home run options the last two years, but they didn’t trade up for the #1 RB in this year’s draft to not run the football. They will want to set that tone on offense, and also try to keep the defense off the field. Moore and Wilson may be able to outrun defenders, but Zach still has to be able to hit them. He was better at the end of the year, but not aggressive. He needs to get that back. I want and expect to see a balanced attack with creative play design and play calling, but I also think we could potentially see as many 200 yard rushing games from Hall and MC2 as we do 300 yard passing games from Zach. And that’ll be okay with me. Key for them to throw more is Zach taking a big step before training camp even starts. Can’t have weeks of “the yips” again. If he can be comfortable throwing the short and medium stuff he should be comfortable with right out of the gate, that’ll go a long way. 

Sure, this sounds about right.

But I get the sense people here are thinking we're going to look like the Sanchez/Ryan Jets.  I expect it to be far more aggressive than that.

but I agree the running game will be a massive part of the offense.  Additionally there will be a lot of short passing just getting Wilson/Moore in space and let them do their thing.  5 yards in the air going for 15-20.

 

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Sure, this sounds about right.

But I get the sense people here are thinking we're going to look like the Sanchez/Ryan Jets.  I expect it to be far more aggressive than that.

but I agree the running game will be a massive part of the offense.  Additionally there will be a lot of short passing just getting Wilson/Moore in space and let them do their thing.  5 yards in the air going for 15-20.

 

I like and trust LaFluer a lot more than I ever did Schotty, but the run:pass ratio could be similar. That Breece Hall pick says a lot. They traded up for a new #1 RB when their old #1 RB was just fine. They’ve put themselves in a position now that as long as one of those guys is healthy, they’re going to have a dynamic rushing game. If they’re both healthy? Watch out! You think this guy beat you down, now we’re bringing in the other guy and his fresh legs. They are going to pound that football. They will definitely look to run some home run play action passes off of that, but the identity of this offense is going to be that of a running team. 

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Sure, this sounds about right.

But I get the sense people here are thinking we're going to look like the Sanchez/Ryan Jets.  I expect it to be far more aggressive than that.

but I agree the running game will be a massive part of the offense.  Additionally there will be a lot of short passing just getting Wilson/Moore in space and let them do their thing.  5 yards in the air going for 15-20.

 

I think they really need to spread the field some....I saw a lot of designed pass plays last year where OC had 3 receivers in one zone - only yards apart in depth with DBs in between.  He made it far too easy for defense to cover 1 zone of the field - no wonder Zack was interception machine....Altho Zack made some really bad decisions too but the play calling was horrid for a stretch.  Maybe this is why he went upstairs - thinking maybe in his head it looked different when he was on sideline but honestly I dont know what he was thinking.  Rookie OC did improve over the year.

However Zack strength is his arm I hate to see them waste that with dinks and dunks and try to turn him into some game manager.  They need to establish a run game and mix in some dinks and dunks for his confidence but once he establishes himself I think we will see an opened up offense and some big plays like we have not seen around here since the days of Walker and Tooooon.

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I definitely think this offense will be based on the running game.  
 

Even running the ball a ton there should be opportunities in the passing game.

220 - 230 yds/game =
3,740 - 3,910 yds.

Trevor Lawrence with a crap team, mediocre weapons, and bad coaching was in that range in 2021 (I think just under ~3,700 yds).

Mac Jones was in that range in 2021 and I think there was one game where they didn’t even let him throw the ball.

IDK - I struggle with setting the bar too low for the #2 pick in the draft going into his second season in the same scheme.

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10 hours ago, slats said:

I like and trust LaFluer a lot more than I ever did Schotty, but the run:pass ratio could be similar. That Breece Hall pick says a lot. They traded up for a new #1 RB when their old #1 RB was just fine. They’ve put themselves in a position now that as long as one of those guys is healthy, they’re going to have a dynamic rushing game. If they’re both healthy? Watch out! You think this guy beat you down, now we’re bringing in the other guy and his fresh legs. They are going to pound that football. They will definitely look to run some home run play action passes off of that, but the identity of this offense is going to be that of a running team. 

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.  I mean, we're pretty close as the running game will be important...

But they now have three prolific receivers, legitimate TE's as weapons and s much as they went up and got a special RB, let's remember Hall is an exceptional receiver.  They've also put a tremendous amount of resources into the passing games - I expect them to use it.

Again, IMO, the run game will be a major part of the offense but I just don't see it anywhere near the level of the Schotty Jets.  I guess a lot will depend on if they can trust ZW.

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On 5/1/2022 at 11:10 PM, slimjasi said:

Anything less than 4000 yards passing and a 2:1 TD/INT ratio is very disappointing. 

10 QB's put up 4000 or more passing yards last year. Zack Wilson was awful for most of last year. Middle of the pack QB would be a big upgrade.

Are you saying if he's not a top 10 QB you'll be very disappointed?

 

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12 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Sure, this sounds about right.

But I get the sense people here are thinking we're going to look like the Sanchez/Ryan Jets.  I expect it to be far more aggressive than that.

but I agree the running game will be a massive part of the offense.  Additionally there will be a lot of short passing just getting Wilson/Moore in space and let them do their thing.  5 yards in the air going for 15-20.

 

I dont see us like the Ryan Jets, that team was built differently and I think Schottenheimer was a big part of what held that offense back.

The thing that I see from the draft and FA is not how many times we run vs pass, rather I see the offense getting a lot of "easier throws" for Zach then we had last year.  When you watch SF when Kittle is healthy he does catch balls down the field but he gets a lot of yardage on shorter throws where the defense has been forced to stay in base to avoid getting crushed in the run game and the use of motion has frozen the defense a little so Kittle leaks out and gets a 6-12 yard gain.  Those are the types of plays that should keep defenses guessing enough for us to get some good gains on the ground and then use play action to hit Wilson/Moore down the field. 

I really hope that Zach is able to get over the bit of the yips that he had on short throws as that is going to be a staple with this group of TEs.  Im not nearly as worried about him hitting some downfield throws as much as the easy ones, even though that is counterintuitive.

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17 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.  I mean, we're pretty close as the running game will be important...

But they now have three prolific receivers, legitimate TE's as weapons and s much as they went up and got a special RB, let's remember Hall is an exceptional receiver.  They've also put a tremendous amount of resources into the passing games - I expect them to use it.

Again, IMO, the run game will be a major part of the offense but I just don't see it anywhere near the level of the Schotty Jets.  I guess a lot will depend on if they can trust ZW.

That’s cool. I’ll say that Hall has the potential to be an exceptional receiver, but he’s not there yet. I’m excited about their first first round WR since Santana, but I also expect rookie receivers to have an acclimation period. There’s no doubt that they’ll want to get the offense opened up, but I think that’ll be a thing we see over the course of the season. Sure, there’ll be some big shots to keep the defenses honest early, but they’re clearly trying to protect Zach here. Everything is going to stem from the running game, especially early; play action, reverses, etc. Braxton Berrios, Moore, and Williams will all have rushing attempts this year. I expect the goal will be to get Zach as comfortable and confident as possible before trying to put too much on his plate. His failures in the first half of the season looked 100% mental to me. They’re looking to put him in his happy place, to keep that from happening again. I expect the passing game to have a lot of West Coast elements, quick passes to the WRs and TEs that let them do something with it after the catch. They’ll want Zach to establish himself as a game manager before they set him free. 

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7 minutes ago, BCJet said:

I dont see us like the Ryan Jets, that team was built differently and I think Schottenheimer was a big part of what held that offense back.

The thing that I see from the draft and FA is not how many times we run vs pass, rather I see the offense getting a lot of "easier throws" for Zach then we had last year.  When you watch SF when Kittle is healthy he does catch balls down the field but he gets a lot of yardage on shorter throws where the defense has been forced to stay in base to avoid getting crushed in the run game and the use of motion has frozen the defense a little so Kittle leaks out and gets a 6-12 yard gain.  Those are the types of plays that should keep defenses guessing enough for us to get some good gains on the ground and then use play action to hit Wilson/Moore down the field. 

I really hope that Zach is able to get over the bit of the yips that he had on short throws as that is going to be a staple with this group of TEs.  Im not nearly as worried about him hitting some downfield throws as much as the easy ones, even though that is counterintuitive.

Agreed.  I believe the short passing game will be the most important part of this offense.  Obviously the running game helps set that up - and having sub 4.4 weapons all of the over the field does too.

I'm not so much worried about the yips with Zach but I am with his overall accuracy.  short passes he's putting behind people on their hips, floating balls over peoples heads 15 yards down field.   The key to the short passing game is pinpoint accuracy - its all about hitting guys completely in stride allowing for YAC - minor misses (even on completions) isn't good enough..  Just too many times last year Zach was off on those.  Sure he hit most of them, but he had enough slight misses that, imo, there's reason for concern.  Hopefully those are just a function of him thinking too much - because that will stop as the offense becomes second nature.  And it will soon.

But I do believe if he fixes that issue - this team will be tough for anyone to beat.

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12 hours ago, SickJetFan said:

I tho Zack played well in preseason and well in that 1st game against Carolina.  but in that Carolina game he had like 5/6 dropped passes or passes that hit the receivers in hand in the 1Q alone.  Plus their number 1 back in that game seemed to be Ty and no running game to speak.  They had like 3 or 4 killer penalties for lining up wrong or other stupid stuff.  He was running for his life on a lot of plays and got sacked like 6x 1 or 2 of which were hard face plants.  All the mistakes, dropped passes, penalties made the rookie have to play from behind on the road in his 1st game which credit to him he held it together and tried to pull a comeback with some really nice passes towards the end. 

With all that said I think the Sacks,  speed of the game, the bad team around him had an effect on his confidence because he seemed to regress week to week after that because the team around him sucked until LaFuer went upstairs (not sure why that made such a difference but I believe it did but a quarter of the season was gone by then I think?). After spending all training camp not getting hit and having a clean pocket in short preseason games the hello to NFL may have been a little much for him or any rookie QB.  Credit to him after taking a beating thru the next few games to the point where he was injured he did come back and play well. 

Did he play well because he got to watch? or maybe the rest of the team stopped being such a train wreck? maybe the OC is just too short to see the field from sideline? who knows but I saw enough to have a good feeling that he will be exciting to watch with some talent around him

 

 

At the outset Wilson tried to play “Hero Ball”, because it had always worked for him in the past.  But he pretty quickly learned, he’s intelligent, that that does not work in the NFL unless you are surrounded by superior talent, and even then even the best QBs will make mistakes at times.  Wilson played on one of the least talented offensive units in the NFL last year.

After pumping the brakes and putting training wheels on you saw a much different QB, one who began learning QBing in the NFL from the ground up, and one who was able to keep his virtually totally injury depleted team competitive much of the time, which to me was highly impressive.

His OC knows his SkillSet.  He has an outstanding arm and is surprisingly very elusive at times.  He has all the qualities of a Gunslinger and I think LaFluer will take advantage of that now that there has been serious NFL level talent infused around him.

The Jets, now, should rarely be out of just about any game they play with Wilson at QB, and with time he should get better and better.

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6 minutes ago, slats said:

That’s cool. I’ll say that Hall has the potential to be an exceptional receiver, but he’s not there yet. I’m excited about their first first round WR since Santana, but I also expect rookie receivers to have an acclimation period. There’s no doubt that they’ll want to get the offense opened up, but I think that’ll be a thing we see over the course of the season. Sure, there’ll be some big shots to keep the defenses honest early, but they’re clearly trying to protect Zach here. Everything is going to stem from the running game, especially early; play action, reverses, etc. Braxton Berrios, Moore, and Williams will all have rushing attempts this year. I expect the goal will be to get Zach as comfortable and confident as possible before trying to put too much on his plate. His failures in the first half of the season looked 100% mental to me. They’re looking to put him in his happy place, to keep that from happening again. I expect the passing game to have a lot of West Coast elements, quick passes to the WRs and TEs that let them do something with it after the catch. They’ll want Zach to establish himself as a game manager before they set him free. 

Honestly, I think the most exciting things for me is I have real faith in Mike LaFleur.  He's shown he can be creative enough to make garbage look okay - with the tools the Jets have now, creativity can really make this offense explosive.  

Surely easing in GW and Hall and not putting too much pressure on ZW.   It will be really interesting to see how much Zach progressed over the winter.  

 

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

10 QB's put up 4000 or more passing yards last year. Zack Wilson was awful for most of last year. Middle of the pack QB would be a big upgrade.

Are you saying if he's not a top 10 QB you'll be very disappointed?

 

Ahhh, well I didn't realize that only 10 QBs put up 4,000 yards. So I can relax that a little bit. 

 Regardless, I wouldn't rank my top ten QBs by passing yards. That's a pretty dumb way to rank QBs in general since guys play in different offenses and have a different number of attempts. 

So I'll say something like above 65% completion percentage, a minimum 2:1 TD/INT ratio, and above 7 yards/attempt (which would have been around 20th best last season). 

I'm not looking for Wilson to be elite, but I am looking for him to show that he can be a solid starting QB that we can win with. 

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I'm shocked every time I look back on Wilson's stats from last year. Just 9 TDs? Jesus. It would be a massive jump just to go to 20 TDs. 

With that said, it SHOULD happen. You have the talent around you. If you don't, you're either injured or just...not good. 

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On 7/22/2021 at 11:43 PM, Defense Wins Championships said:

@bla bla bla

Zach Wilson: 2021

4,120 passing yards (242 passing yards per game).

595 rushing yards (35 rushing yards per game because this kid has flat out WHEELS).

7.5 yards per pass attempt. 

(4 300+ yard passing games). 

28 TDs / 9 INTs. 

63.7% completion percentage.

QB Rating of 92.7. 

12 wins (12-5). 

Rookie of the Year. 

(Playing behind Becton/Vera-Tucker/Moses and alongside Davis/Mims/Elijah/Crowder and Carter = An unstoppable Rookie QB).

This ******* D-bag

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