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The 2021 Draft and UDFA Class


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Good stuff but Ourlads is still mired too much in the measurables cutoffs that Gil Brandt started. Too traditional in their thinking, but they still think we got really good value at almost every pick. Some factual stuff wrong too. Of the Top 5 Zach played the most under center. The overemphasis on his legs in relation to his throwing mention versus everything else they said about him are very much at odds.

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Over all....... I like what Douglas is doing but he has made some errors if you ask me.

The Jets needed talent all over the place and he failed to double dip in areas we were weak in which the last two drafts were strong.

He 100% for sure should have drafted a 2nd Wr two years ago and this past year he 100% for sure should have drafted another olineman.

Mims is as of now a huge ?  Could have protected vs that if he had drafted another WR

AVT has been hurt and we have really bad guard play overall and he failed to double dip last year.

He drafted like two lbs and 3 secondary guys later on, should have picked up another Olineman

Two years ago he wasted picks on suspect guys in the 4th round.  Should have taken another Wr.

"IN MY OPINION."

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7 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Over all....... I like what Douglas is doing but he has made some errors if you ask me.

The Jets needed talent all over the place and he failed to double dip in areas we were weak in which the last two drafts were strong.

He 100% for sure should have drafted a 2nd Wr two years ago and this past year he 100% for sure should have drafted another olineman.

Mims is as of now a huge ?  Could have protected vs that if he had drafted another WR

AVT has been hurt and we have really bad guard play overall and he failed to double dip last year.

He drafted like two lbs and 3 secondary guys later on, should have picked up another Olineman

Two years ago he wasted picks on suspect guys in the 4th round.  Should have taken another Wr.

"IN MY OPINION."

I agree with alot of this.  JD is definitely still learning.

IMHO, he is still recovering/compensating/making excuses for a very mediocre 2020 Draft.   Part of that, in large part, had to do with the coaches input.   Looking at it from positions:

1-QB-Wilson obviously great pick.  Morgan was a Gase system pick and will likely ride the PS to save face.  I would just let him find a team more suited to him.  If the GB QB3 (Benkert) gets released, I would go with him or Mullens.  White can stay on the PS.  If we can't get Benkert or Mullens, we need Josh Johnson as QB2.

2-RB-this looks like a decent group, but I would keep Adams over Coleman.

3-OL-adding Moses and AVT were huge additions to a team that needed at least 5 new OL.  I would not keep Feeney just because his salary is guaranteed-hopefully he has offset language.  He could still be the best backup OL of a weak lot.  Going into the season relying on Clark (likely never will play), Lewis (head case), Edoga (too weak for G, too short for T) and McDermott as your OL depth was a mistake.  JD will be watching the waiver wire very closely for OL (who seldom appear there).

4-WR-ironically, this is an embarrassment of riches.  Given how Berrios and the Smiths have looked, I don't think we needed to keep Crowder or sign Cole, both for one year rentals.  I would look to move one or both of them and keep younger players.  Mims was an Ourlads pick that was likely the right one there.  He will need at least another year with a real coaching and conditioning staff.  

5-DL-JD did his best work here.  S Lawson good pick up.  Let these guys play and carry the defense.   I would move Shepherd on and keep a younger player.

6-LB-Davis good pick up for one year-hopefully he gets better.  Draft picks look decent but will be exposed.  Another area for waiver wire pickups.

7-CB-I don't mind the youth approach here.  Next year we can draft or sign one. 

8-S-I am still confused here.  A Davis likely another flop.   I would franchise Maye again to extend (like Denver did).  MC2 may actually be carried as a S.  

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9 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Good stuff but Ourlads is still mired too much in the measurables cutoffs that Gil Brandt started. Too traditional in their thinking, but they still think we got really good value at almost every pick. Some factual stuff wrong too. Of the Top 5 Zach played the most under center. The overemphasis on his legs in relation to his throwing mention versus everything else they said about him are very much at odds.

I was wondering about this.  As somebody that doesn't use them much as a resource, are they one of the outlets that ranks 65 players with first round grades?  I know some of these outlets do that.  There can be some validity (some years) in thinking that 40 guys rate a first round grade, but if there are 150 guys that they rate in rounds 1-3, then getting a guy ranked as a 3rd rounder at the top of round 4 isn't necessarily a value.

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15 hours ago, varjet said:

I had read that the Jets 2020 draft was straight out of Ourlads. 

It was in tune with the value rankings - which is worth the $40 all by itself.  It is the perfect draft program. 

Davis and Mims were the top players on the board according to the ourlads value rankings.  Both Perine and Morgan were taken where they were rated.  Clark was the only player who was overdrafted as he only carried a 6th round grade.  I understood the thinking - he is friends with Becton and has genuine inside out versatility.    But that year produced seven starting Guards and most were still on the board.   Hall was considered an absolute steal by Ourlads and it appears they are correct.  Mann is not the weapon we hoped for as a rookie but he was not shank city either.  It is my hope that he is unleashed by the coaches and allowed to boom a few.  Intimidation takes many forms in the NFL  . . .

13 hours ago, chirorob said:

I read it.

I like that stuff, but it just takes 2 years to know what you get in a draft.

This is so very true.  Especially for positions that require development time like interior lineman and inline tight ends.  Further you cannot judge the player unless they stay healthy enough to get on the field.  Then WILL they adopt a professional athletic lifestyle?  All but the most gifted athletes must strive to improve and preserve what they have.  This cannot be judged in a single year. 

Of course the star players always assert themselves if healthy.  Immediately.  I confess to being truly bummed about the injury to Elijah Moore.  We can put a brave face on it and hurl the excuses.  But the fact is the star of camp went down with an injury and missed the entire preseason.  This did not help his development.  I expect the starters to be Davis and Cole with Moore in the slot when we go three wide.  Had Moore stayed healthy, he might be the starting Z. 

12 hours ago, Dinamite said:

Thanks for posting it.

No problem.  It is nice to see what the professionals think.  You can find every opinion in existence on this message board about all players and all things Jets.  You want an opinion?  We got an opinion. 

11 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Seems crazy to me that Pinnock wasn't rated.  Not that he is can't miss, but he checks all the boxes.  I'm shocked that anybody ranking PFAs would not have had him.  

I attribute it to the COVID year.  Usually players are sifted and identified before the combine.  Anybody who is missed is usually found at the combine.  Plus there were so many guys who did not play or whose college resume is padded with stats against players who were in the game because they did not opt out and continued to test negative.

It is the first time that I have seen Ourlads miss a Jet draftee so early.   They missed the DB Michael Carter too.  We have confounded them before in the 6th and 7th in the past.  I must point out that it has been my experience that this is unwise. 

While we do not know who will survive final cuts, I must note that Echols - who had a full write up - is running ahead of Pinnock and Carter who were not reviewed . . .

10 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Good stuff but Ourlads is still mired too much in the measurables cutoffs that Gil Brandt started. Too traditional in their thinking, but they still think we got really good value at almost every pick. Some factual stuff wrong too. Of the Top 5 Zach played the most under center. The overemphasis on his legs in relation to his throwing mention versus everything else they said about him are very much at odds.

Nice try. 

They ranked Zack fourth out of this year's crop of QBs.  For the record, they preferred Lawrence (1), Jones (8) and Fields (9).  They ranked Wilson as the 11th best player in the draft in their value ratings, just ahead of Lance.  They did not think Wilson worthy of the #2 pick. 

They ranked AVT 23d.  In their eyes, he is overdrafted.

Elijah Moore went five spots earlier than predicted so that is a wash.

Michael Carter RB went nine spots later than ranked, so that is a wash.

Carter and Pinnock were overdrafts who did not earn draftable grades. 

Nasirildeen was a huge steal according to ourlads. 

Sherwood and Echols were drafted where ranked as was Marshall. 

Ourlads liked one pick, disliked the top two choices and were otherwise OK with value. 

Now do not get me wrong, I LOVE what I have seen from Zack Wilson.  He has demonstrated the two things that cannot be scouted or coached.  Accurate passing against NFL talent and the ability to read defenses.  The failure in the latter department ruined both Sanchez and Geno Smith.  Nobody is good enough to throw it into coverage. 

But the ourlads complaints have a basis in fact.  He has had shoulder surgery to both shoulders.  He missed four games in both of his first two seasons and had to earn the starting job as a senior.  Had he broken his leg in training camp at BYU last season, he does not get drafted by ANYONE.   He was not on the radar screen.  Had Joe Barrow broken his leg before the stellar season that got him picked #1, he still gets drafted by the fourth round.  He was on everybody's radar screen.  I am not down on Wilson, but these are facts.   He has come out of nowhere like nobody before him.   

And he did play in a spread offense that seldom gave him snaps under center.  Just because he did it more than the others (is that true?) does not mean he did it much at all.  Ourlads is telling you the truth, they do not have venal motives and would not last long being sloppy.

  It is OK to admit that he has something to learn.  He may turn out to be the best play action passer since Chad.  But he is doing it for the first time since high school if he even did it then.  Play action passing is the key to the Shanahan offensive system.  It is why QBs who come out of pro programs are coveted and those from spread offenses are not. 

As for their complaint that Zach does not always set his feet - even when he is sitting in the pocket - that is also evident from the preseason.  Sam Darnold was still showing no improvement to his passing form after three years.  It is my hope that we see better evidence of improvement.  I know all about this one.  I am a poor athlete who grew up with the best athlete in the neighborhood.  If I do not set my feet when I throw I cannot get anything on it or throw accurately.  That Zack can get away with it on the move is laudable and a good thing.  That he does not set his feet when in the pocket is a flaw that needs correction. 

10 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Over all....... I like what Douglas is doing but he has made some errors if you ask me.

The Jets needed talent all over the place and he failed to double dip in areas we were weak in which the last two drafts were strong.

He 100% for sure should have drafted a 2nd Wr two years ago and this past year he 100% for sure should have drafted another olineman.

Mims is as of now a huge ?  Could have protected vs that if he had drafted another WR

AVT has been hurt and we have really bad guard play overall and he failed to double dip last year.

He drafted like two lbs and 3 secondary guys later on, should have picked up another Olineman

Two years ago he wasted picks on suspect guys in the 4th round.  Should have taken another Wr.

"IN MY OPINION."

I have often heard that the Jets should have grabbed another WR last season.  It was what I wanted too.  But all the good ones were grabbed early.  Each time our pick came up, the cupboard was bare.  If you look at the later rounds of last year's draft, the misses outweigh the hits by a huge margin.  Yes, it would have been nice if we had owned a crystal ball and drafted Gabe Davis in the fourth.  But we could have easily gotten skunked.   It was a very low percentage play.  Whereas this season's draft, yielded second banana WRs late into the 3d round.  The previous year, Mims was the last of the second banana guys. 

As for this year, I wanted to add two of the coveted lineman and that means the first three rounds for the most part.  I would have taken Drew Dalman instead of Michael Carter in the 4th.  Those third round picks we traded were starting lineman.  That was clear before and after the draft.  I can only hope that AVT proves to be the long term starter we desperately need.   He sure cost enough.  If he does not get out of the medical tent we are up against it.  Young David Moore shows promise but he is NOT ready.  Feeney and Levin appear unready. 

I too wish we have focused more intently on offensive line this year and not gotten away from value.  Now I know that the move up for AVT was a fair price, but he is a guard not a left tackle.  You can find starters in the 3d.

3 hours ago, varjet said:

I agree with alot of this.  JD is definitely still learning.

IMHO, he is still recovering/compensating/making excuses for a very mediocre 2020 Draft.   Part of that, in large part, had to do with the coaches input.   Looking at it from positions:

1-QB-Wilson obviously great pick.  Morgan was a Gase system pick and will likely ride the PS to save face.  I would just let him find a team more suited to him.  If the GB QB3 (Benkert) gets released, I would go with him or Mullens.  White can stay on the PS.  If we can't get Benkert or Mullens, we need Josh Johnson as QB2.

2-RB-this looks like a decent group, but I would keep Adams over Coleman.

3-OL-adding Moses and AVT were huge additions to a team that needed at least 5 new OL.  I would not keep Feeney just because his salary is guaranteed-hopefully he has offset language.  He could still be the best backup OL of a weak lot.  Going into the season relying on Clark (likely never will play), Lewis (head case), Edoga (too weak for G, too short for T) and McDermott as your OL depth was a mistake.  JD will be watching the waiver wire very closely for OL (who seldom appear there).

4-WR-ironically, this is an embarrassment of riches.  Given how Berrios and the Smiths have looked, I don't think we needed to keep Crowder or sign Cole, both for one year rentals.  I would look to move one or both of them and keep younger players.  Mims was an Ourlads pick that was likely the right one there.  He will need at least another year with a real coaching and conditioning staff.  

5-DL-JD did his best work here.  S Lawson good pick up.  Let these guys play and carry the defense.   I would move Shepherd on and keep a younger player.

6-LB-Davis good pick up for one year-hopefully he gets better.  Draft picks look decent but will be exposed.  Another area for waiver wire pickups.

7-CB-I don't mind the youth approach here.  Next year we can draft or sign one. 

8-S-I am still confused here.  A Davis likely another flop.   I would franchise Maye again to extend (like Denver did).  MC2 may actually be carried as a S.  

I am with you on Morgan.  But I make White the backup and keep him and Johnson on the roster.  Covid is still around and the Broncos played a RB at QB last season when they ran out of QBs.

I would keep Coleman over Adams.  I like Adams willingness to charge the barricades.  However, Coleman is much more elusive and has had one poor season in his career and that was due to injury.  Take a look at Coleman's stats.  They are really quite impressive.  Adams gains yards with people hanging all over him.  But in the NFL, it is about making them miss. 

I share your concern about the offensive line depth inside.  Can you imagine where we would be if we had not added Moses?  I like Grant Hermanns a lot and think the injury bug will make him and David Moore Jets.  But they are not ready to start.  Their apprenticeship has just begun.  The McDermott injury is such a blow.  The guy played four spots last year and did not get his clothes ripped off.  I had him clearly running ahead of Feeney and Levin at Guard. 

What a difference a year makes at WR.  We got so snakebit last season when Mims and both Smiths went down for the count.  Now - barring a late trade - we will have to cut our quality depth. 

The cuts at DL will be tough.  I love the price we paid for Shaq Lawson.  Not sure I love anything else.  I am glad Joe D appears to be cheap.  At least his mistakes will be small in magnitude. 

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