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Rapoport: Herndon Traded to Vikings


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We are at the point now where it is pointless to debate with certain Jet fans:

There is a specific demographic that, even if Joe Douglas traded our punter for a 2nd rounder but had to return a 6th rounder, they would complain that a 6th round pick was given up.  It just wouldn't matter.

So, if you like the move, you like the move.  If you don't, you don't.  We shall see who JD drafts, or what he spins that pick into.  Then I am sure the debate will continue.  

 

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10 hours ago, kmnj said:

meaning yesterday morgan on the roster today he is not-that is another miss by Joe

I know what a bad draft is and joe's first draft was a bad one=becton a first round that a 5 year old could have done is his only hope now -the rest of the draft is hot garbage including mims who will be the wr 5 if he is lucky

 

 

Cannot agree with that. What are the parameters for a good draft in your opinion?

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9 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

How this has morphed into that this was a debate about the value of a 4th vs 6th is beyond me. 
 

it’s just an opinion that the Jets made a good trade not a a great trade as expressed by some. The idea that the Jets fleeced Minnesota by sending Herndon and a 6th rounder for a 4th rounder is not my definition of fleecing.

Many feel we fleeced Minnesota because Herndon sucks (“we were cutting him anyway”) and is unplayable. Maybe so. Then the Jets win the trade. The Jets get a 4th and Minnesota loses their  4th for a 6th. Not a horrible loss for Minnesota.


If Herndon has some level of success with Minnesota it’s good for them. Worth a gamble by them 

 

They got the value of a late 4th round pick in next year’s draft for Herndon.

You’re making it sound like a 4th minus a 6th is really like a mid-5th in next year’s draft. It isn’t (not that a mid-5th still wouldn’t be acceptable compensation anyway). Once the draft slots are known after the season, we’ll find out what the value was in hindsight, but as of today that’s what it is: a late 4th. They could trade down from Minnesota’s pick in round 4, recoup the value of the 6th rounder they gave up, and would still be in round 4. 

It’s great value (for the Jets) for a player who wasn’t running away with the starting job despite the ease with which he should’ve done so (given the Jets’ position group), and has cumulatively amassed under 800 receiving yards in his 3 year career. That seems a poor trade for Minnesota on paper.  

This is a very TE-friendly scheme, the Jets’ TE personnel sucks without him, and the coaches & GM would still rather have a mid-round pick a season later. That says plenty; the Jets know him far better than Minnesota.

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53 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

They got the value of a late 4th round pick in next year’s draft for Herndon.

You’re making it sound like a 4th minus a 6th is really like a mid-5th in next year’s draft. It isn’t (not that a mid-5th still wouldn’t be acceptable compensation anyway). Once the draft slots are known after the season, we’ll find out what the value was in hindsight, but as of today that’s what it is: a late 4th. They could trade down from Minnesota’s pick in round 4, recoup the value of the 6th rounder they gave up, and would still be in round 4. 

It’s great value (for the Jets) for a player who wasn’t running away with the starting job despite the ease with which he should’ve done so (given the Jets’ position group), and has cumulatively amassed under 800 receiving yards in his 3 year career. That seems a poor trade for Minnesota on paper.  

This is a very TE-friendly scheme, the Jets’ TE personnel sucks without him, and the coaches & GM would still rather have a mid-round pick a season later. That says plenty; the Jets know him far better than Minnesota.

I hear what you are saying. I’ve said this is a good trade for the Jets. There is no doubt.

we think it’s a bad trade for Minnesota because we feel that Herndon sucks.

Fair enough, but it’s not like Minnesota didn’t do their homework and not watch tape of him under Gase. They see something/ hope that he can succeed with their offense. There are plenty of players that have blossomed after 3 or 4 years of developing/ going to different teams. They are plugging Herndon into a starting role. They traded for a starter. We can laugh at it all we want and he may fail but right now (from Minnesota’s perspective) they traded for a starter and they still have a punchers chance of getting a NFL player with the 6th pick.

There are plenty of writers etc stating that it was a good trade by Minnesota. (And also for the Jets)

 

 

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9 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

I hear what you are saying. I’ve said this is a good trade for the Jets. There is no doubt.

we think it’s a bad trade for Minnesota because we feel that Herndon sucks.

Fair enough, but it’s not like Minnesota didn’t do their homework and not watch tape of him under Gase. They see something/ hope that he can succeed with their offense. There are plenty of players that have blossomed after 3 or 4 years of developing/ going to different teams. They are plugging Herndon into a starting role. They traded for a starter. We can laugh at it all we want and he may fail but right now (from Minnesota’s perspective) they traded for a starter and they still have a punchers chance of getting a NFL player with the 6th pick.

There are plenty of writers etc stating that it was a good trade by Minnesota. (And also for the Jets)

Homework shmomework. If you think Minnesota was pulling all-nighters going over Herndon's film before trading for him you're kidding yourself. 

He was the only nominally-starting TE they could afford, which is to say they couldn't afford to pay anyone proven to be worth a damn (and is why they released Rudolph in the spring).

They traded a solid draft pick for a low percentage chance player for one season (after this season he's a UFA). They paid more in draft value because he makes little money and, unlike the Jets, they don't have a wealth of cap room. They probably gave up a round more in value for the Jets to eat a million of his pay (their next-best pick was Baltimore's 5th, which all expect to be very low).

However it turns out in the end, as things sit today they overpaid for a player with Herndon's resume: very little production over his 3 years (despite starting); has injury history; has suspension history; has some facepalm dropsies history; this summer he couldn't mop the floor with the Jets' nobodies & scrubs at the position; and who has just one season left on his rookie contract.

All of Herndon's trade value is because of what he did during 6 games back in 2018 when the Jets had only one other healthy receiver on the field and they had to throw to someone. Enunwa and/or Anderson were injured on & off, receiving back Powell was on IR, and pure blocker Eric Tomlinson the only other TE on the roster. There's your homework, which is probably more homework than the Vikings did before this trade. 

He'll put up better numbers than his last 2 seasons, I'm sure, but a 4th round pick for one season of Chris Herndon is a move based on desperation, not one based on value. A month ago Minnesota would have laughed Douglas off the phone even if we were trying to get the late 5th they got from Baltimore.

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11 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

They got the value of a late 4th round pick in next year’s draft for Herndon.

You’re making it sound like a 4th minus a 6th is really like a mid-5th in next year’s draft. It isn’t (not that a mid-5th still wouldn’t be acceptable compensation anyway). Once the draft slots are known after the season, we’ll find out what the value was in hindsight, but as of today that’s what it is: a late 4th. They could trade down from Minnesota’s pick in round 4, recoup the value of the 6th rounder they gave up, and would still be in round 4. 

It’s great value (for the Jets) for a player who wasn’t running away with the starting job despite the ease with which he should’ve done so (given the Jets’ position group), and has cumulatively amassed under 800 receiving yards in his 3 year career. That seems a poor trade for Minnesota on paper.  

This is a very TE-friendly scheme, the Jets’ TE personnel sucks without him, and the coaches & GM would still rather have a mid-round pick a season later. That says plenty; the Jets know him far better than Minnesota.

Good post.  I don't think the trade is the real issue.  The real issue is Herndon might actually produce like a top end TE with MN.  That's every Jets fans nightmare.  If Kubiak turns Herndon into a big time TE and it turns out coaching matters the trade looks bad.  If he continues to be the enigma (bum with HOF potential) that was here it looks much better. 

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12 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Good post.  I don't think the trade is the real issue.  The real issue is Herndon might actually produce like a top end TE with MN.  That's every Jets fans nightmare.  If Kubiak turns Herndon into a big time TE and it turns out coaching matters the trade looks bad.  If he continues to be the enigma (bum with HOF potential) that was here it looks much better. 

Like I just posted (easy to get lost in my novellas, I'll admit), his numbers will surely go up from 2019-20. That's more based on who's throwing the ball, not because he's a good TE. He had plenty of opportunity to separate himself from the bunch here, and give the team a reason to extend him early rather than trade him, and wasn't able to do it.

I also tried to put into context that breakout period of his rookie season. They had to throw the ball to somebody, and the Jets were without 2-3 of their other top 3 receiving targets over that stretch. 

Once upon a time in 2014, the Jace Amaro-Jeff Cumberland duo accounted for ~600 yards and 5 TDs between them, despite the QB being mostly Geno Smith and one of them just a rookie. That semi-respectable production didn't therefore make them a decent pair of receiving TEs. 

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6 minutes ago, kmnj said:

but the logic was we missed on morgan because 4th rounders are crap shoot and you are not going to get a good  player then lol

 

Would you rather a scratch off lottery ticket you know is a loser or one that gives you no money but 1 free ticket to try again?

still got a shot to hit the jackpot, even though it is still highly unlikely 

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On 8/31/2021 at 7:44 PM, Beerfish said:

Look at his first draft.

A lot of large question marks and misses.

Kind of why the draft is a crapshoot.

Hes got 3 starters at this point out of the 2020 class, lets give it time, could be more.  

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11 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

I hear what you are saying. I’ve said this is a good trade for the Jets. There is no doubt.

we think it’s a bad trade for Minnesota because we feel that Herndon sucks.

Fair enough, but it’s not like Minnesota didn’t do their homework and not watch tape of him under Gase. They see something/ hope that he can succeed with their offense. There are plenty of players that have blossomed after 3 or 4 years of developing/ going to different teams. They are plugging Herndon into a starting role. They traded for a starter. We can laugh at it all we want and he may fail but right now (from Minnesota’s perspective) they traded for a starter and they still have a punchers chance of getting a NFL player with the 6th pick.

There are plenty of writers etc stating that it was a good trade by Minnesota. (And also for the Jets)

 

 

They were desperate due to injuries.  Its like shopping when youre hungry, bad decisions are made

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3 minutes ago, kmnj said:

but the logic was we missed on morgan because 4th rounders are crap shoot and you are not going to get a good  player then lol

 

For some, yes. 

With the Jets all-in on Darnold (at the time), Morgan seemed a low percentage pick, and iirc the rumors back then were that NE was hot on him so it may have been a c**k-block attempt. Like the time NE was super high on Gholston at #7 and we got one over on BB by drafting him at #6 :bag: .

4th round picks are just so-so for finding starters, but teams find backups and guys who at least stick in that role or on specials for 3-4 years on that rookie contract before they lose interest. But its bad judgment when cutting a 4th rounder before year 2 begins, when his desired ceiling is as a backup and his only competition has been Mike White. 

That doesn't mean 4th rounders are not valuable. It means they shouldn't be used on guys who should be 6th-7th round crapshoots when a "taking chance on more prospects" position was WR not QB (since the former could be successes on specials even if they can't get onto the field much on offense). Backup, spot-starter QBs who can at least show they're worth more than a PS spot are cheap FAs every offseason.

I'm willing to write this pick and others off as his first draft, which often doesn't go well for first-time GMs in their first draft. His second draft looks better on paper, but we'll see what they are (or aren't) when they actually hit the field in games that count.

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27 minutes ago, Jethead said:

To be fair. JD did not fleece the Vikings. He exploited their situation and got an unexpected return.

He did, however, fleece the Seahawks.

Go JD!

Let’s hope his fleecing of the Seahawks turns out better than when we said we fleeced the Giants in the Leo trade.

I understand why we had to trade Adams, and I’m happy with the return we got on paper. For now.

Adams is a top 30 player in the NFL, probably top 10 defensively. Let’s see how the players we draft end up before we give out any awards for fleecing another team.

Tearing a roster apart is a lot harder than building one. You want to get rid of your best players, you better pick ones equally good to replace them, or what’s the point?

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8 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

Let’s hope his fleecing of the Seahawks turns out better than when we said he fleeced the Giants in the Leo trade.

I understand why we had to trade Adams, and I’m happy with the return we got on paper. For now.

Adams is a top 30 player in the NFL, probably top 10 defensively. Let’s see how the players we draft end up before we give out any awards for fleecing.

Tearing a roster apart is a lot harder than building one. You want to get rid of your best players, you better pick ones equally good to replace them, or what’s the point?

I agree that Adams is a good player. Much better than many here give him credit for. But, he is also a Mevis type who wears out his welcome. Depends on how he matures. Does he become Earl Thomas or Tyrann Mathieu?

I'd rather have the two #1's.

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28 minutes ago, Jethead said:

I agree that Adams is a good player. Much better than many here give him credit for. But, he is also a Mevis type who wears out his welcome. Depends on how he matures. Does he become Earl Thomas or Tyrann Mathieu?

I'd rather have the two #1's.

That “wears out his welcome”, “Mevis” thing translates to “he wanted to get paid”.
He’s a top defender in the NFL, and feelings aside, he doesn’t need to mature, and he doesn’t need to turn into another player. Who he is now is as good as there is at his position.

The only problem with signing Jamal here was  this roster was so bad, a top SS wasn’t worth signing, the picks made more sense for a 2-14 team.

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