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Rapoport: Herndon Traded to Vikings


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13 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

The Jets sent Herndon and a 6th for a 4th is how I read it.

Somebody with the Draft Value chart can figure that out for us but it basically sounds like a 5th round value we got.

It will depend where the teams end up.  Using draftek, if the picks are in the same spots as this year it works out to Viking 4th (#107 = 80 points) - our 6th (#163 =24.6 points)  = 55.4 which equates to somewhere between 119 and 120 which is mid to late 4th.  Best case is 112 - 13 which is pick 100/101 4th or 5th pick in the 4th round.  Worst case is 44 - 25.4 which is #178 or a worse 6th than we had this year.

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7 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Look at his first draft.

A lot of large question marks and misses.

I agree. It’s a fair point but IMO JD’s still fares better than the 1st drafts of his last 4 predecessors except for Tanny’s glorious 2006 haul. 

To each his own. 
To me, JD has shown an astuteness as GM the Jets have been lacking for some time; it’s not like I’m some psycho acronym swinging and praising JD’s nutsack like if he were Yeboah. Lol 

 

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2 minutes ago, 92ShaunEllis92 said:

 
 

I disagree. Your naive and close-minded view that JD has been functioning as a NFL GM with “no expectation to win” is absurd.  Any competent fan of the NFL knows this league you have to win or your jobless. 

So, 3 years, no playoffs, coming off a 2 win season....And you're praising him!

At the same time telling me he had expectations and pressure to win.  

Honestly, I'm going to leave it at this - as I guess we clearly have different definition of the words expectations and pressure.  

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1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

So, 3 years, no playoffs, coming off a 2 win season....And you're praising him!

At the same time telling me he had expectations and pressure to win.  

Honestly, I'm going to leave it at this - as I guess we clearly have different definition of the words expectations and pressure.  

We do. JD walked into a mutinous $hit storm and I think he’s fared well considering the dearth of talent - both player personnel & Front office. It was a complete franchise overhaul of exorcising MANY scouts, executives, and bad player contracts to get where we are now. 
 

Have a wonderful evening fellow Jets fan :-)

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https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/jets-acquire-4th-rounder-from-vikings-in-exchange-for-te-chris-herndon-pick

Jets Acquire 4th-Rounder from Vikings in Exchange for TE Chris Herndon, Pick

GM Joe Douglas Has Multiple Fourth-Round Picks in 2022

Aug 31, 2021 at 06:45 PM
 
 The Jets on Tuesday acquired a 2022 fourth-round pick from the Vikings in exchange for TE Chris Herndon and a 2022 sixth-round pick.

A fourth-round selection of the Jets in 2018, Herndon made 12 starts his rookie season and totaled 39 receptions for 502 yards with 4 receiving TDs. He only appeared in a game his sophomore pro campaign as he fractured a rib in a win over the Giants after missing a combined eight games to a suspension and then a hamstring injury.

The 6-4, 253-pounder appeared in 16 games last season while making 13 starts, finishing with 31 catches for 287 yards with 3 TDs. The Jets TE room includes Tyler Kroft, who had 2 TD catches against the Packers in the team's second preseason game. Trevon Wesco also has the ability to line up at tight end, but he's been used primarily at FB in Mike LaFleur's west coast scheme. Ryan Griffin, a nine-year veteran who hauled in 5 TDs in 2019 and is working his way back from a hamstring injury, and Dan Brown, a core special-teams performer, were released Tuesday.

The Jets will have multiple fourth-round picks in April as they already own Carolina's Round 4 selection. They acquired second- and fourth-round picks from Carolina when they sent QB Sam Darnold to the Panthers in April. Earlier this week, Jets GM Joe Douglas went the trade route to acquire DE Shaq Lawson from the Texans in exchange for a 2022 sixth-round pick.

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11 minutes ago, 92ShaunEllis92 said:

We do. JD walked into a mutinous $hit storm and I think he’s fared well considering the dearth of talent - both player personnel & Front office. It was a complete franchise overhaul of exorcising MANY scouts, executives, and bad player contracts to get where we are now. 
 

Have a wonderful evening fellow Jets fan :-)

I couldn't agree more with the bolded.  

But that's my point.  

We both believe, under the circumstances, he's done an exceptional job.  I'm as big a JD fan as there is on this board.  

But if we believe he's done well (along with most fans) and the team has been awful, I just don't know how you can say he's had expectations and pressure to win.  

I'm really leaving it at this, I promise this time :-)

 

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1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

Douglas is an amazing GM for managing resources and the cap and such.  HOWEVER, Idzik was good at that as well.  All of these picks will not mean enough if he does not draft a bit better.

Seriously dude...that is about as far as Plastic Man can stretch with that comment.

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I don’t think JD started the day with any plan to trade Herndon, but as he says, if someone calls about a player he’ll listen. The vikings called in desperation and JD capitalized on their desperation. He is a smooth operator.

But now he has a hole to fill at TE and i would imagine that since the vikings called about Herndon, the TE cupboard is bare.

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57 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

It’s a good trade- not great. We didn’t gain a draft pick , a better one but not an additional one. From Minnesota’s perspective they gained a “prospect “ and still have the same number of draft picks albeit a couple of rounds later.

He’s not a “prospect”, he entering his 4th year and an UFA after this year. So he’ll need a contract as well

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22 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

Seriously dude...that is about as far as Plastic Man can stretch with that comment.

Becton - huge potential but hurt both years and had troubles in this years camp

Mims - hurt both years and well down the depth chart at WR if anything took a step back wards

Ashtyn Daivs....hurt and did not light the world on fire year one

Zuniga - Has done absolutely ZERO so far, amazing he was not cut.

Perine - Not a terrible player but nothing special, he's about #4 back on this team.

Morgan - Cut, for a 4th round pick he has shown not a lot and you do not spend 4th rounders long take a swing for a backup qb.

Clarke - hurt both years was not great last year, may or may not play again.

Bryce Hall - Excellent pick great value

Mann - Looks good so far this year which is a huge improvement over a lousy year last year.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Becton - huge potential but hurt both years and had troubles in this years camp

Mims - hurt both years and well down the depth chart at WR if anything took a step back wards

Ashtyn Daivs....hurt and did not light the world on fire year one

Zuniga - Has done absolutely ZERO so far, amazing he was not cut.

Perine - Not a terrible player but nothing special, he's about #4 back on this team.

Morgan - Cut, for a 4th round pick he has shown not a lot and you do not spend 4th rounders long take a swing for a backup qb.

Clarke - hurt both years was not great last year, may or may not play again.

Bryce Hall - Excellent pick great value

Mann - Looks good so far this year which is a huge improvement over a lousy year last year.

 

 

A reasonable expectation for a draft to be successful is to hit on your 1st rd pick.  Hit on either your 2nd or 3rd rd pick.  And to hit on 1 of the remaining picks in rounds 4-7. So 3 starters out of the entire draft. 

The hit rate in the 1st rd is about 50%

2nd and 3rd is about 30-40%

4th-7th is about 20%.

It's still early to judge especially with no offseason or training camp. But right now you have a starter in Becton and Hall. I don't really count Mann although I should. They all need more time to develop. 

To think a team should draft more starters, especially Rookie starters, is unrealistic in my opinion. 

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21 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I don’t think JD started the day with any plan to trade Herndon, but as he says, if someone calls about a player he’ll listen. The vikings called in desperation and JD capitalized on their desperation. He is a smooth operator.

But now he has a hole to fill at TE and i would imagine that since the vikings called about Herndon, the TE cupboard is bare.

Zach Ertz is now going for a 1st rd. Pick based on the Herndon trade

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16 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Becton - huge potential but hurt both years and had troubles in this years camp

Mims - hurt both years and well down the depth chart at WR if anything took a step back wards

Ashtyn Daivs....hurt and did not light the world on fire year one

Zuniga - Has done absolutely ZERO so far, amazing he was not cut.

Perine - Not a terrible player but nothing special, he's about #4 back on this team.

Morgan - Cut, for a 4th round pick he has shown not a lot and you do not spend 4th rounders long take a swing for a backup qb.

Clarke - hurt both years was not great last year, may or may not play again.

Bryce Hall - Excellent pick great value

Mann - Looks good so far this year which is a huge improvement over a lousy year last year.

 

 

Some people on here believing Braden Mann was good last year is one of the great mysteries of the universe. 

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20 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Becton - huge potential but hurt both years and had troubles in this years camp

Mims - hurt both years and well down the depth chart at WR if anything took a step back wards

Ashtyn Daivs....hurt and did not light the world on fire year one

Zuniga - Has done absolutely ZERO so far, amazing he was not cut.

Perine - Not a terrible player but nothing special, he's about #4 back on this team.

Morgan - Cut, for a 4th round pick he has shown not a lot and you do not spend 4th rounders long take a swing for a backup qb.

Clarke - hurt both years was not great last year, may or may not play again.

Bryce Hall - Excellent pick great value

Mann - Looks good so far this year which is a huge improvement over a lousy year last year.

 

 

People who continue to defend the 2020 draft class as a good one are just denying reality in front of their face. That was NOT a good draft by JD....period 

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34 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

He’s not a “prospect”, he entering his 4th year and an UFA after this year. So he’ll need a contract as well

Hence the quotes around prospect. Minnesota fans and management feel a change in scenery and the fact he was injured and suspended has not allowed him the opportunity to develop his potential. 

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19 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

Hence the quotes around prospect. Minnesota fans and management feel a change in scenery and the fact he was injured and suspended has not allowed him the opportunity to develop his potential. 

Well they gave up a 4th rounder for one year of Herndon, might not be the best use of resources for them

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2 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

It’s a good trade- not great. We didn’t gain a draft pick , a better one but not an additional one. From Minnesota’s perspective they gained a “prospect “ and still have the same number of draft picks albeit a couple of rounds later.

Terrible take. Herndon is an absolute scrub, and we moved up 2 rounds to get rid of him while saving cap space. 

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17 minutes ago, PCP63 said:

Terrible take. Herndon is an absolute scrub, and we moved up 2 rounds to get rid of him while saving cap space. 

Not really. And not  Minnesota’s opinion. I said it was a good trade. If it was for a 4th rounder without giving up a 6th rounder - that’s a great trade.

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1 hour ago, choon328 said:

A reasonable expectation for a draft to be successful is to hit on your 1st rd pick.  Hit on either your 2nd or 3rd rd pick.  And to hit on 1 of the remaining picks in rounds 4-7. So 3 starters out of the entire draft. 

The hit rate in the 1st rd is about 50%

2nd and 3rd is about 30-40%

4th-7th is about 20%.

It's still early to judge especially with no offseason or training camp. But right now you have a starter in Becton and Hall. I don't really count Mann although I should. They all need more time to develop. 

To think a team should draft more starters, especially Rookie starters, is unrealistic in my opinion. 

To transform your team you need at least one really good hit above average on your picks or you never contend.  See New orleans 2017.

For a team totally devoid of talent like the jets were if you do not hit on more picks and have some pro bowlers and some decent starters you can never get good enough, one crop of players is moving out as more move in.

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59 minutes ago, PCP63 said:

Terrible take. Herndon is an absolute scrub, and we moved up 2 rounds to get rid of him while saving cap space. 

How about this take:

“If (Herndon) plays the ball he can play and he finds some consistency, this is a steal for (the Vikings),’’ said former NFL quarterback Josh McCown, who played for the Jets in 2018. “There’s no doubt about it. Chris Herndon is a good football player. At his best, he’s as good as anybody. It’s just a matter of being consistent.’’

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8 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

How about this take:

“If (Herndon) plays the ball he can play and he finds some consistency, this is a steal for (the Vikings),’’ said former NFL quarterback Josh McCown, who played for the Jets in 2018. “There’s no doubt about it. Chris Herndon is a good football player. At his best, he’s as good as anybody. It’s just a matter of being consistent.’’

I mean he was pretty good in those 5 or so games three years ago.

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2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Becton - huge potential but hurt both years and had troubles in this years camp

Mims - hurt both years and well down the depth chart at WR if anything took a step back wards

Ashtyn Daivs....hurt and did not light the world on fire year one

Zuniga - Has done absolutely ZERO so far, amazing he was not cut.

Perine - Not a terrible player but nothing special, he's about #4 back on this team.

Morgan - Cut, for a 4th round pick he has shown not a lot and you do not spend 4th rounders long take a swing for a backup qb.

Clarke - hurt both years was not great last year, may or may not play again.

Bryce Hall - Excellent pick great value

Mann - Looks good so far this year which is a huge improvement over a lousy year last year.

 

 

If he gets four starters out of the draft, it will be considered a very good draft, as it would with any GM. That very well could happen since it generally takes three years for players to mature. You seem to have ants in your pants when it comes to draft evaluations. 

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