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Ok Draft Experts: What players will Fall Out of the 1st Rd??


Barton

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I think most of us here know who the current projected 1st rders are. And we all know every year some good player slips out of the 1st rd and into the 2nd or even 3rd rd (like Strait, Nat Dorsey and Randy Starks did last year)

This will be a fun thread to look back on after the entire draft is complete.

So lets hear from the peanut gallery:

What players will fall out of the 1st rd??

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Eh... Baas wasn't projected first round, I don't think. And EB doesn't like Heath Miller, and has an unhealthy obsession with Ernest Shazor.

Davis would be a good pick. Travis Johnson could be another.

hey man! I like miller.....but not for the jets in the 1st round. Shazor is a baaaaaaaad dude, brutal hitter. I don't consider Baas a projected 1st rder either. I think Miller will drop because he didn't run at the combines and he has a hernia injury according to mel kiper.

I think Brodney Pool slips outa the 1st rd

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Once again, Brodney Pool isn't a projected first rounder either. Besides, whom ever falls isn't going to fall far. Philadelphia has a high second, and the Browns, well, need everything.

eh, Brodney Pool is borderline 1st rd. I think most people would agree with that

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So... you're asking which borderline first rounders aren't going to be taken in the first round, as opposed to which solidly projected first rounds could potentially fall?

Just trying to clarify.

listen punk stop pissing me off!!!!! J/K :lol:

borderline 1st rders are OK I guess

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ill clarify - any1 who on any board is projected in the first round in the last 4 weeks - there that should make it easy -

none of the guys that are talked about routinely as top 20 guys should drop

personally these are my fallers and a short explanation why - remember im going with the criteria any board in the last four weeks - ill start with my top 32 board

note that mathematically it's not likely that all of these 1st round "grades" will slip - there are 32 slots and GMs make mistakes alot in first round - roughly a rate of 50% - so reputation can fool alot of people -

DT Travis Johnson: not really all that large or especially great - has alot of stops behind LOS but not alot of sacks - some character issues there

will be a quality NFL player but not first round value. Compares similar to darnell dockett, who should have gone slighty higher based on his play this year - - Johnson in the high 2nd could happen-

DT Anttaj Hawthorne: what a twinkie this guy is - top blockers will give this guy the business on the field. He's a wuss who has never reached his potential - almost made alot of plays in college - for all the talk about his quickness there's alot of near misses, a step too slow - in the NFL that's like being 10 steps too slow. He's also on the turf alot - a light needs to turn on - besides Wendall Bryant WIS hasn't had a first round DT since the 70's.

*will be alot of other positions raided before the DTs start to move - the run will be in the 2nd*

LB Channing Crowder: shady injuries and character, not enough upside to offset

TE Heath Miller: has a sports hernia and no one can see him workout - at best a todd heap type (but not as fast)- and Heap spent most of last season on IR [-X - Miller's stock is falling - sell now !!

FS Brodney Pool: 4.55 doesn't excite people but had decent leap/agility/explosion numbers - not enough for a first round status - he's a difference-maker on the field so it's a toss up pick - if there is a 2nd S in the round it will be Pool.

DT Shaun Cody: he's just not good enough against the run to be a DT. He ran around the Senior Bowl like a fool, doing spin moves like that's gonna work at the next level - and then he only ran a 5.03 at his pro day (not a 4.75 like countdown reports) Plus he's got his head up his ass on spike TV without an agent - hey pretty boy do everyone in america a favor and cut the crap - play football. the place for pass rush specializing "finesse DT" is in the Pac-10 not the NFL.

CB Brandon Browner is still on many people's boards - this is a good litmus test for quality - Browner will not go 1st round.

WR Mark Clayton - already a distant 4th behind Williamson on some board and on DD.com I cannot see the appeal over Reggie Brown and Roddy White. He's good but not as clutch hands as you might think - his concentration seems shaky and he could slip - the hype machine is churning away it's all about upside and i don't see much more for Clayton. A great #2 probably but guys like that shouldn't be first round picks - probably in a real minority on that one, but it's not the first time.

GJ&H'slatest mock has some insight this time of year-

http://www.draftdaddy.com/MD/MDstat.cfm

i don't agree with all the fallers on his board (*cough cough Khalif Barnes LT*) but it's undoubtedly a noble and high quality effort

Ham gets like nostradamus this time of year - don't argue just get out of the way and let him work

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