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explain this to me


kmnj

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many of the folks that refuse to admit Joe's first draft was poor say you cant evaluate a pick just after one year -if that is an accurate statement then why has Joe already cut some of these player?

I mean surely a GM would know that it takes a few years before you can evaluate players so why didnt Joe wait on the guys he cut?-

the reality ,which some refuse to accept even though Joe already has ,  the players were not good and all of the time in the world would not help. 

p.s I hope Joe's second draft turns out to be historically good but his first one was not ..

 

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2 minutes ago, kmnj said:

many of the folks that refuse to admit Joe's first draft was poor say you cant evaluate a pick just after one year -if that is an accurate statement then why has Joe already cut some of these player?

I mean surely a GM would know that it takes a few years before you can evaluate players so why didnt Joe wait on the guys he cut?-

the reality ,which some refuse to accept even though Joe already has ,  the players were not good and all of the time in the world would not help. 

p.s I hope Joe's second draft turns out to be historically good but his first one was not ..

 

I think some of the grade will depend on if Mims and or Davis can get healthy and contribute.  Some of the picks were poor, some of the players have just been hurt, which makes it tougher to evaluate.

At the time, I liked the draft, I thought Mims would be a player, I liked the first 3 picks, I loved the Mann pick, but it looks like they may be getting just a LT and a punter out of the whole draft, which is not enough.

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22 minutes ago, kmnj said:

many of the folks that refuse to admit Joe's first draft was poor say you cant evaluate a pick just after one year -if that is an accurate statement then why has Joe already cut some of these player?

I mean surely a GM would know that it takes a few years before you can evaluate players so why didnt Joe wait on the guys he cut?-

the reality ,which some refuse to accept even though Joe already has ,  the players were not good and all of the time in the world would not help. 

p.s I hope Joe's second draft turns out to be historically good but his first one was not ..

 

It wasn’t great. So far…but so what? It’s one draft.
IF Becton, Mims and Hall stick as above average starters, then it changes back to a very good draft. 

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There's a difference between fans / media talking heads evaluating a draft and GM's / coaches evaluating the players individually.

Fans usually look at a draft class to evaluate a GM - is he up to the job or is he not. To me that's like looking at a rookie's stats to decide if he'll ever be a good player or not (quite a common hobby around these parts ;-) ).

(For a bit of a laugh I looked at Ozzie Newsome's draft record earlier ... quite impressive overall but some real howlers in there too. Kyle Boller? Brashad Perriman? :D ).

While it is fair to say that Joe's first draft looks less impressive now than it did at the time, it can't be judged as a pass / fail already. Yes, some of the mid rounders have washed out. But there are still plenty of ways it could go overall. If Becton can shake the injury niggles of Year 1 he could become a Top 10 LT in only his second year. Or he could miss a load of games and struggle for consistency leaving a big ? entering the off season. Mims could languish on the depth chart and become a forgotten man, or he could make the most of the opportunities he gets in Year 2 and earn a more prominent role in Year 3. Davis and Hall could boom / bust / be serviceable starters. Zuniga ... well, even I'm not going to go there. :D 

Until more of the story is written on these guys I think it's tough to describe an overall class as poor. It may yet be so, but it may not. Top 10 LT, solid #2 WR, starting S and CB out of one draft? I'd take that in a heartbeat. But we don't know if that's what we have yet, or if we ever will. It could also be injury prone LT we couldn't rely on, #4 WR that we move on from in 1-2 years and a couple of backups / ST players. 

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, chirorob said:

If you can get 2 starters, and several role players out of a draft, that's a success.   You are talking about 7 picks on average, and every team will miss some.

I really never have a problem taking a QB in the 4th or 5th.   Zuniga, that was an awful pick, no defending it.   Mims and Davis are health issues, if Mims gets healthy and produces, that draft looks pretty good all of a sudden.

I don't disagree.  I just think it is hard to call a draft a good draft if you whiff on 3 of the first 4 picks.  At least one or two of Mims, Davis or Zuniga need to step up and be players.  Even if we got contiibutors later (Perine, Mann, Hall), it will be a big missed opportunity if all 3 guys bust.  I am still a big fan of Mims and think he will be fine and we will look back on this as a solid draft.

And yes, I am still including Zuniga -- I have no expectations that he will be a contirubtor, but he is still on the practice squad.  His book is not completely written yet, even though the first few chapters have been pretty bad.

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'Drafting for scheme' is very overrated as an excuse why guys suck.

Also coaches that have such a narrow scheme that they can't fit good players into it are garbage.

Morgan is gone because he was the 4th best QB on the team.  Zuniga is psquad fodder because he cannot rush the passer.  Perine is down the list of RBs because he is limited.  Mims is a 4th or 5th string Wr because he has not been great and gets hurt all the time.

 

 

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54 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Let's do it again!

6 players from that 7 round draft will be playing a contributing role on this years team.  

  • 4 of them starting:
    • Becton, Hall, Huff, Mann
  • 2 expected to get meaningful snaps:
    • Mims and Perine

That's not even including Davis - who when back is also expected to play.

It is BEYOND any reasonable assessment to continue to push this fallacy and have people believe it.

Just because you keep saying it over and over again isn't going to change the FACTS!

 

Javelin Guidry! The guy gets no love. No love I tell you. And he has the coolest 1st name ever.

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1 hour ago, kmnj said:

so joe drafted guys that didnt fit into his coaches system? why would he do that-that is worse then saying they needed time to develop

Adam Gase was our coach last year. The draft would have been different if Saleh was in the draft room. Nasirildeen and Sherwood have Saleh written all over them. 

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1 hour ago, kmnj said:

many of the folks that refuse to admit Joe's first draft was poor say you cant evaluate a pick just after one year -if that is an accurate statement then why has Joe already cut some of these player?

I mean surely a GM would know that it takes a few years before you can evaluate players so why didnt Joe wait on the guys he cut?-

the reality ,which some refuse to accept even though Joe already has ,  the players were not good and all of the time in the world would not help. 

p.s I hope Joe's second draft turns out to be historically good but his first one was not ..

 

His 1st draft did produce 3 starters LT Becton, CB Hall, and P Mann. Plus WR Mims and RB Perine as backups that could be very good at the WR and RB rotations respectively. Zuniga was brought back to the PS and could develop since injuries have slowed him. QB Morgan would have stayed, but White beat him out as the more stead better prospect moving forward. Others were injured but could come back like G Cam Clark and S Davis so we will see if they ever pan out. Not sure I would consider that such a bad draft, and I didn't even include UDFA Huff who could start or will likely really help our never ending Edge rushing production need.

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1 hour ago, kmnj said:

so joe drafted guys that didnt fit into his coaches system? why would he do that-that is worse then saying they needed time to develop

I would think even you should be able to figure out that the coaching staff is different this year than last year. The 2020 draft would have been with input from Gase and his staff and the 2021 draft would have been with input from Saleh and his staff.

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Let's do it again!

6 players from that 7 round draft will be playing a contributing role on this years team.  

  • 4 of them starting:
    • Becton, Hall, Huff, Mann
  • 2 expected to get meaningful snaps:
    • Mims and Perine

That's not even including Davis - who when back is also expected to play.

It is BEYOND any reasonable assessment to continue to push this fallacy and have people believe it.

Just because you keep saying it over and over again isn't going to change the FACTS!

 

This is absurd.

  • Huff wasn't drafted. 
  • Mann is a punter. When you draft one the least you expect is that they're very good never mind starting. There's a reason most teams don't do that.
  • Hall is a starter yes but that's more a reflection of the state of that unit - comfortably the worst in football. He's no further along that Blessuan Austin was the same stage. Proven nothing.
  • Becton is the only starter of any quality and even there he couldn't really miss with Tristan Wirfs the alternative. Becton actually has to improve to justify passing on Wirfs. 

As for the others:

  • Perine shouldn't have made the roster. Adams outplayed him at every turn. Worst pick of the bunch. Nothing player. 
  • Mims was losing reps to guys who are no longer on the roster and he can't stay healthy. He's well behind where anyone would have hoped at this stage. 
  • Davis has been a total crock - In fact just about everyone except Hall and the punter haven't been able to stay healthy. 

By any measure that draft has been catastrophe to this point. Mims and Davis are the best chance to turn it around but for now they can't even get themselves on the field. It's not a write off yet but the early signs are so horrible. Taking genuine trash like Perine with Gabriel Davis on the board, missing wildly on Morgan and Zuniga instead of double dipping at WR in a deep class. Horrible moves at the time that are even worse with hindsight. You need to get depth in those rounds and we got guys who will be out of the league in 3 years. 

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1 hour ago, kmnj said:

many of the folks that refuse to admit Joe's first draft was poor

Who are these folks?  I'm not aware of this being a majority or even widespread view.

1 hour ago, kmnj said:

say you cant evaluate a pick just after one year -if that is an accurate statement then why has Joe already cut some of these player?

You generally can't get a full eval. of most players after only one year, especially a COVID, no-camp type unusual year.

But no, you can evaluate a player after a single play if you want.  The Coaches are constantly evaluating players from day 1, and so can we. 

Just note that when one makes definitive statements after one practice, there is a good likely hood their day 1 evaluation will potentially be quite wrong as time goes on.

1 hour ago, kmnj said:

I mean surely a GM would know that it takes a few years before you can evaluate players so why didnt Joe wait on the guys he cut?-

Because it didn't take many years.

1 hour ago, kmnj said:

the reality ,which some refuse to accept even though Joe already has ,  the players were not good and all of the time in the world would not help.

That certainly seems to be JD's view.

I will stress that first draft should be described as a the JD/Gase draft.  I have no doubt in my mind that at that point, Gase was running the show on who was picked, not JD.  JMO, you're free to think otherwise if you like.

1 hour ago, kmnj said:

p.s I hope Joe's second draft turns out to be historically good but his first one was not ..

As do we all.  All comes down to Wilson, really.

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1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

In my opinion it isn’t so much you can’t evaluate a player in 1 year.  

I think the biggest issue when it comes to these discussions amongst fans is not the James Morgan’s or Christian Hackenburg’s of the world who show next to or absolutely no redeemable attributes.  Fans and GMs alike can see they don’t have it pretty quickly.

Where it gets a lot more difficult is Denzel Mims.  In quite a few people’s opinion the book on Mims is already written.  Some look at his Rookie season as a whole and so far his lackluster training camp and they are ready to move on.  However I think Mims showed more than enough physical ability last year to say the jury is still out on him. The people who have written him off may very well be right.  The process to get to that conclusion so quickly might be wrong.  

I also think people have a very skewed idea of what a successful draft pick is, especially RD 3 and later.  That’s a different discussion though.

I'm not that high on Mims. I think a lot of people were jist happy this guy could catch a football last season. IMO Mims does have a place on this team as a possession receiver. I think we were all hoping for Julio Jones but he seems more like Jericho Cotchery to me which isn't  a bad thing. We need guys lime this and so does every team. 

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9 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

This is absurd.

  • Huff wasn't drafted. 
  • Mann is a punter. When you draft one the least you expect is that they're very good never mind starting. There's a reason most teams don't.
  • Hall is a starter yes but that's more a reflection of the state of that unit. He's no further along that Blessuan Austin was the same stage. Proven nothing.
  • Becton is the only starter of any quality and even there he couldn't really miss with Tristan Wirfs the aleternative. Becton actually has to improve to justify passing on Wirfs. 

As for the others:

  • Perine shouldn't have made the roster. Adams outplayed him at every turn. Worst pick of the bunch. Nothing player. 
  • Mims was losing reps to guys who are no longer on the roster and he can't stay healthy. He's well behind where anyone would have hoped at this stage. 
  • Davis has been a total crock - In fact just about everyone except Hall and the punter haven't been able to stay healthy. 

By any measure that draft has been catastrophe to this point. Mims and Davis are the best chance to turn it around but for now they can't even get themselves on the field. It's not a write off yet but the early signs are so horrible. Taking genuine trash like Perine with Gabriel Davis on the board, missing wildly on Morgan and Zuniga instead of double dipping at WR in a deep class. Horrible moves at the time that are even worse with hindsight. You need to get depth in those rounds and we got guys who will be out of the league in 3 years. 

So. You decided. Based on rookie campaigns that the GM and the HC of the Jets are wrong in starting 4 players and giving substantial roles to two others? 

or are you using Rich Cimini tweets to make that assessment?

Finding 4 starters and 3 contributors from a single draft is HOF level GMing

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Let's do it again!

6 players from that 7 round draft will be playing a contributing role on this years team.  

  • 4 of them starting:
    • Becton, Hall, Huff, Mann
  • 2 expected to get meaningful snaps:
    • Mims and Perine

That's not even including Davis - who when back is also expected to play.

It is BEYOND any reasonable assessment to continue to push this fallacy and have people believe it.

Just because you keep saying it over and over again isn't going to change the FACTS!

 

yep.  i'm not quite sure why there's this perception that douglas is cutting all these players from his first draft.  the only two i know are morgan and zuniga.  and zuniga wasn't cut but sent to the practice squad.  as you point out there are 4 starters and two that will contribute.  and davis and clark are injured.  let's see if joe can get this many on every draft.

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1 hour ago, jamesr said:

There's a difference between fans / media talking heads evaluating a draft and GM's / coaches evaluating the players individually.

Fans usually look at a draft class to evaluate a GM - is he up to the job or is he not. To me that's like looking at a rookie's stats to decide if he'll ever be a good player or not (quite a common hobby around these parts ;-) ).

(For a bit of a laugh I looked at Ozzie Newsome's draft record earlier ... quite impressive overall but some real howlers in there too. Kyle Boller? Brashad Perriman? :D ).

While it is fair to say that Joe's first draft looks less impressive now than it did at the time, it can't be judged as a pass / fail already. Yes, some of the mid rounders have washed out. But there are still plenty of ways it could go overall. If Becton can shake the injury niggles of Year 1 he could become a Top 10 LT in only his second year. Or he could miss a load of games and struggle for consistency leaving a big ? entering the off season. Mims could languish on the depth chart and become a forgotten man, or he could make the most of the opportunities he gets in Year 2 and earn a more prominent role in Year 3. Davis and Hall could boom / bust / be serviceable starters. Zuniga ... well, even I'm not going to go there. :D 

Until more of the story is written on these guys I think it's tough to describe an overall class as poor. It may yet be so, but it may not. Top 10 LT, solid #2 WR, starting S and CB out of one draft? I'd take that in a heartbeat. But we don't know if that's what we have yet, or if we ever will. It could also be injury prone LT we couldn't rely on, #4 WR that we move on from in 1-2 years and a couple of backups / ST players. 

 

 

 

dont forget about Mann. Punters get no respect. LOL

yes he struggled but if he could put it together its a big deal. every time we have to give the other team the ball back if he can kick it deep in there territory or kick it out of bounds on the 5 yd line that is HUGE. 

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15 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Finding 4 starters and 3 contributors from a single draft is HOF level GMing

Honestly can't tell if this is serious are not.

Whether someone's a contributor or a starter directly correlates to how good or bad the roster is. Blessuan Austin was a starter last year and is without a job this year. So by your amazing logic he was a fantastic pick until 2 days ago.

Any punter who is drafted is going to start. Any kicker who is drafted is going to start. To include Mann as if he's some amazing find in the later rounds is actually discrediting to any point you're trying to make. Mann has actually underperformed to justify using a pick. Any punter worth a draft pick should be at least top half of the league in most categories and Mann came nowhere close. 

Again. Huff wasn't drafted. He's not a draft pick. He does not count. At all.

So I guess Mims has gotten considerably worse this year seeing as he's dropped from "starter" to "contributor". We should be worried about such a decline because obviously such classifications have nothing to do with the external context and are totally reflective of the players quality. All of Mims, Davis, Perine are further down the depth chart than they were this time a year ago. 

Nonsense. All of it. The draft has been a debacle to this point.

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