Draft Capital vs efficiency

[southparkcpa]

All the problems we have had at drafting  I was curious as to how we stack up against others.

I'd like to know, what percentage of 1st rounders are still on a squad after say 3 years? For us it is zero right now.

I've always felt that the Pats didn't draft great AND for years never had to exhaust a number one pick on a QB. Huge advantage.

Browns drafted early for a long time but until recently, were bottom feeders.

While not much, the attached article lays out data on drafts and draft efficiency.  Needless to say , the Jets are at the bottom of the list.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

[jbt]

A monkey throwing sh*t on a wall with the list of all draftees could of done a better job the last 10 years.  Early returns on JD are not that good but need at least another 2 years to decide.  If he needs to go the Jets need to hire someone with actual GM experience and good results

 

[JustInFudge]

Good read.  The Jets sucks at everything they do.  Not shocking they're the worst drafting team in the NFL.  Been that way since the 80's.  

[kevinc855]

1 hour ago, jbt said:

A monkey throwing sh*t on a wall with the list of all draftees could of done a better job the last 10 years.  Early returns on JD are not that good but need at least another 2 years to decide.  If he needs to go the Jets need to hire someone with actual GM experience and good results

 

JD takes the high potential guy over the safe player but it hasn’t been working out for him 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, jbt said:

A monkey throwing sh*t on a wall with the list of all draftees could of done a better job the last 10 years.  Early returns on JD are not that good but need at least another 2 years to decide.  If he needs to go the Jets need to hire someone with actual GM experience and good results

 

I wouldn’t give him two more years. If Zach isn’t obviously the guy by year end, time to do what cardinals did with Rosen and move on. With a new GM to pick the next savior. Jets have not only been bad but they also haven’t learned how to fail fast. Every disastrous era of our history has played out in slow motion.

[All Gas, No Gase]

It will be interesting to see how AVT, “the most NFL ready lineman,” and Elijah Moore who many consider a real steal play out. I’m not including ZW because although the initial returns look very promising, IMO selecting a FQB is the most difficult and subjective draft selection as too many promising QBs bust in the NFL.

If AVT and EM bust, maybe we need a name change, shaman, or something crazy to break the Jets curse. In hindsight, I would have drafted differently because of the Oline issues. At the time of the draft I thought JD made good selections. 

[southparkcpa]

2 minutes ago, All Gas, No Gase said:

It will be interesting to see how AVT, “the most NFL ready lineman,” and Elijah Moore who many consider a real steal play out. I’m not including ZW because although the initial returns look very promising, IMO selecting a FQB is the most difficult and subjective draft selection as too many promising QBs bust in the NFL.

If AVT and EM bust, maybe we need a name change, shaman, or something crazy to break the Jets curse. In hindsight, I would have drafted differently because of the Oline issues. At the time of the draft I thought JD made good selections. 

I wanted Wirtz over Becton. Watching Wirtz jump out of a pool was so impressive.....  then  he took Cameron Clarke from UNCC as that was Becton's friend.  Both have not seen the field and Wirtz is kicking ass.

[Matt39]

5 minutes ago, All Gas, No Gase said:

It will be interesting to see how AVT, “the most NFL ready lineman,” and Elijah Moore who many consider a real steal play out. I’m not including ZW because although the initial returns look very promising, IMO selecting a FQB is the most difficult and subjective draft selection as too many promising QBs bust in the NFL.

If AVT and EM bust, maybe we need a name change, shaman, or something crazy to break the Jets curse. In hindsight, I would have drafted differently because of the Oline issues. At the time of the draft I thought JD made good selections. 

Both those guys missed all of camp and got thrown in week 1. Camp is important. I don’t think the Jets oline just sucks…I think preseason needs to be stressed a bit more by the staff. Veteran teams can have light preseasons with vets on the bike. Jets are the youngest team in football.

[Sperm Edwards]

10 hours ago, jgb said:

I wouldn’t give him two more years. If Zach isn’t obviously the guy by year end, time to do what cardinals did with Rosen and move on. With a new GM to pick the next savior. Jets have not only been bad but they also haven’t learned how to fail fast. Every disastrous era of our history has played out in slow motion.

He's getting no less than this year and next year at a minimum, like it or not, and it's not without reason.

What if the best available candidate wants to hire his own HC (or if the best candidate is a HC-GM, in responsibility or size, like Andy Reid was)? Or is a new GM candidate in January supposed to also inherit Saleh like when Woody last went GM-shopping while retaining Rex? And you're not going to know whether or not Saleh is a net positive or negative in a GM search until after you fire the existing one.

So in the end, what you're likely to get is just change for the sake of change, and replacing Douglas with the next Maccagnan or Idzik. Never mind the idea that GMs aren't going to be flocking to the Jets to inherit a purportedly failed QB (or be second-guessed for moving away from him too soon). Put aside that Wilson isn't Rosen. Rosen is closer to Ryan Leaf than to Wilson, even if Wilson doesn't truly wow us as a rookie.

All this is on top of the reality that it'll be the same owner making the GM hiring decision. Bad as Gase was as a HC here, the chance of success was still better with an experienced NFL coach putting his finger on the scale. Still think the chance of him smartening up by being more conventional is better than the next blind guess from J&J along with being saddled by (presumably) a HC who failed in his 1st season. 

[Jet2020]

JD drafted the right positions. But did he draft the right guys? Remains to be seen but Jets have been progressively worse under JD and that’s something after Mac n Izzadik reserved the honors of the worst back to back GM duo in league history. Maybe JD will be third worse? Still an improvement. 

I believe we have a decent core and can build around it. Couple of good signings coupled with couple of good rookies can change the entire outcome of a GMs performance. 

[UntouchableCrew]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

I wouldn’t give him two more years. If Zach isn’t obviously the guy by year end, time to do what cardinals did with Rosen and move on. With a new GM to pick the next savior. Jets have not only been bad but they also haven’t learned how to fail fast. Every disastrous era of our history has played out in slow motion.

Couldn't disagree more.

Firing Douglas after three years (and only two drafts) and picking a third 1st round QB in 5 years in insane and the definition of disfunction. Why would anyone want to come here? And why would anyone think that with the limited pool of applicants who would want to walk into this the Johnson brothers would make the right hire?

Douglas, Saleh, and Wilson are the guys through the end of 2023, at least.

[Origen]

28 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

He's getting no less than this year and next year at a minimum, like it or not, and it's not without reason.

What if the best available candidate wants to hire his own HC (or if the best candidate is a HC-GM, in responsibility or size, like Andy Reid)? Or is a new GM candidate in January supposed to also inherit Saleh like when Woody last went GM-shopping while retaining Rex? And you're not going to know whether or not Saleh is a net positive or negative in a GM search until after you fire the existing one.

So in the end, what you're likely to get change for the sake of change, and replace Douglas with the next Maccagnan or Idzik. Never mind the idea that GMs aren't going to be flocking to the Jets to inherit a purportedly failed QB (or be second-guessed for moving away from him too soon). Put aside that Wilson isn't Rosen. Rosen is closer to Ryan Leaf than to Wilson, even if Wilson doesn't truly wow us as a rookie.

All this is on top of the reality that it'll be the same owner making the GM hiring decision. Bad as Gase was as a HC here, the chance of success was still better with an experienced NFL coach putting his finger on the scale. Still think the chance of him smartening up by being more conventional is better than the next blind guess from J&J along with being saddled by (presumably) a HC who failed in his 1st season. 

And who wouldn't be clamoring for a super high pressure job in the media capitol where it is now proven that a lack of immediate complete success will result in firing, no time to work with what the team is or what is possible via free agency when other teams are involved.  Super Bowl Victory and 100% HoF draftees or Bust.  Unless you plan on paying out a ton of money to ex-GM's, that is a really dumb plan.

[#27TheDominator]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

I wouldn’t give him two more years. If Zach isn’t obviously the guy by year end, time to do what cardinals did with Rosen and move on. With a new GM to pick the next savior. Jets have not only been bad but they also haven’t learned how to fail fast. Every disastrous era of our history has played out in slow motion.

Idzik was literally fired in record time without being allowed to pick a QB or head coach.  They didn't even wait until the end of the season to dump Maccagnan and Gase got 2 years, one of which was spent fighting with his GM.  Nobody fails faster, baby.  

[BornJetsFan1983]

3 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

All the problems we have had at drafting  I was curious as to how we stack up against others.

I'd like to know, what percentage of 1st rounders are still on a squad after say 3 years? For us it is zero right now.

I've always felt that the Pats didn't draft great AND for years never had to exhaust a number one pick on a QB. Huge advantage.

Browns drafted early for a long time but until recently, were bottom feeders.

While not much, the attached article lays out data on drafts and draft efficiency.  Needless to say , the Jets are at the bottom of the list.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

they were good because of brady not draft picks they actually were notoriously bad at drafting. FYI

[THE BARON]

3 hours ago, jbt said:

A monkey throwing sh*t on a wall with the list of all draftees could of done a better job the last 10 years.  Early returns on JD are not that good but need at least another 2 years to decide.  If he needs to go the Jets need to hire someone with actual GM experience and good results

 

I don't see that we need another two years to judge JD's results at drafting and FA.  They have been horrible.  

[southparkcpa]

3 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

they were good because of brady not draft picks they actually were notoriously bad at drafting. FYI

Didn’t I say that?   SMH.  

[THE BARON]

22 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Couldn't disagree more.

Firing Douglas after three years (and only two drafts) and picking a third 1st round QB in 5 years in insane and the definition of disfunction. Why would anyone want to come here? And why would anyone think that with the limited pool of applicants who would want to walk into this the Johnson brothers would make the right hire?

Douglas, Saleh, and Wilson are the guys through the end of 2023, at least.

Douglas is already a failure as a GM with regard to drafting and FA.  But, I agree... Still, little else to do but enjoy the ride through the swamp until it becomes sensible to fire JD considering contract. 

[Biggs]

27 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Why would anyone want to come here? And why would anyone think that with the limited pool of applicants who would want to walk into this the Johnson brothers would make the right hire?

 

Counterpoint.  Why would we want anyone who would want to come here?

[UntouchableCrew]

3 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

Douglas is already a failure as a GM with regard to drafting and FA.  But, I agree... Still, little else to do but enjoy the ride through the swamp until it becomes sensible to fire JD considering contract. 

I believe in his pedigree and his approach.

I agree thus far the results are disappointing. But he inherited a mess. You can't draft poorly for 10 years and expect anyone to turn it around in two years.

[UntouchableCrew]

Just now, Biggs said:

Counterpoint.  Why would we want anyone who would want to come here?

Well, Douglas and Saleh were desired candidates with options. We got them because we sold them on the idea that "this time it's different."

Wilson was wary of coming here after the failure of the team to support Darnold. We sold him and his family on the idea that "this time it's different."

If you fire Douglas and draft a new QB in 2022 you are unequivocally telling everyone "nothing is different."

[THE BARON]

6 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I believe in his pedigree and his approach.

I agree thus far the results are disappointing. But he inherited a mess. You can't draft poorly for 10 years and expect anyone to turn it around in two years.

The Eagles had success when he was part of the organization.  That is a matter of record.  But that credit may not not have been his portion.   They may have had success because of him or in spite of him or somewhere in between those two.  We don't know.  What we do know is that few if any of his players are panning out.  With two off seasons, we should see a quality offensive line as a minimum.  What we see is a mess.  

[Origen]

How long was Reese the GM for the Giants?  How long was he a moron before they won those 2 Super Bowls?  How long was he awesome before he became a moron again and got fired? 

Looking back at our previous GM's I have had 0 hope that they had a plan as to what they were doing in regards to building a team.  They drafted crazy, they signed free agents crazy, it was madness.  Sometimes it almost worked, always it never did.  After decades, we finally seem to have a coach and gm who appear to be on the same page and are looking at players the same way, not getting into pissing matches in the Post.  Are we a #1 seed filled with future HoF players?  No.  But at least for once they are trying to build the team.  Give it a friggin' season before you start your "See How Right I was That The Jets Suck" parades that some people seem so incredibly intent upon having.

[THE BARON]

3 minutes ago, Origen said:

How long was Reese the GM for the Giants?  How long was he a moron before they won those 2 Super Bowls?  How long was he awesome before he became a moron again and got fired? 

Looking back at our previous GM's I have had 0 hope that they had a plan as to what they were doing in regards to building a team.  They drafted crazy, they signed free agents crazy, it was madness.  Sometimes it almost worked, always it never did.  After decades, we finally seem to have a coach and gm who appear to be on the same page and are looking at players the same way, not getting into pissing matches in the Post.  Are we a #1 seed filled with future HoF players?  No.  But at least for once they are trying to build the team.  Give it a friggin' season before you start your "See How Right I was That The Jets Suck" parades that some people seem so incredibly intent upon having.

What JD draft pick or FA move is working out ? 2020 class was a disaster

2020: Becton - Not working out/injured and may never work out.  

2020: Mims - looks to be in the doghouse and has underwhelmed. 

2020: Davis - practice squad

2020: Zuniga - Wasted pick and with good interior lineman on the board to boot.  Hated this pick. 

2020: Perine - Not much here so far. 

2020: Captain Morgan - Ugh

2020: Hall - Could be a good pick. 

2020: Mann - practice squad

[Sports-Journalism101]

What absolutely nobody on this Jets Nation Forums has taken into account is the degree to which the Coronavirus 2019 Pandemic and accompanying limitations on NCAA Football has impacted the ability of NFL scouting personnel to accurately predict the potential of NFL prospects.  Consider for a moment that NFL scouts were basically consigned to depending upon the same tools as amateur scouts, such as myself.  This meant they: (1) watched tape, (2) spoke to self-interested coaches that want their former players to be drafted to chase clout and improve their own high school level recruiting, (3) spoke to players, and (4) watched limited in-person workouts.  This is meaningfully different than ordinary course scouting.  Also the level of talent was different in the NCAA itself with players opting out, certain teams not playing full schedules, and other similar factors.

I had a conversation with one of the longest tenured New York Jets beat reporters (my former professor) where I predicted to him that the 2021 Draft Class would be one of the most inconsistent and least correlated with draft position of the past 15 years.  Among other things, you will see pro bowlers in the fourth round and first round draft picks out of the league in two years.  He thought it was a fascinating take and told me that I should do a substack article about it.  I have one in the cooker but have not been ready to publish yet as I am still working on my prose.

In any event, I am not an advocate for Joe Douglas but, when you place the 2021 Draft into context, I do not think it will ultimately be particularly revelatory as to Joe Douglas' acumen as an evaluator of talent or General Manager more generally.  

[Paradis]

Minus a blip in the mid-late 2000s I have/could have drafted better than every Jets GM in the last 30 years. I mean that in a literal sense. 

And most of you think i'm an idiot. 

I'd like to know more about how GMs apply for jobs. 

[Origen]

24 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

What JD draft pick or FA move is working out ? 2020 class was a disaster

2020: Becton - Not working out/injured and may never work out.  

2020: Mims - looks to be in the doghouse and has underwhelmed. 

2020: Davis - practice squad

2020: Zuniga - Wasted pick and with good interior lineman on the board to boot.  Hated this pick. 

2020: Perine - Not much here so far. 

2020: Captain Morgan - Ugh

2020: Hall - Could be a good pick. 

2020: Mann - practice squad

Which one of those picks was made in a world without Covid restrictions effecting EVERYTHING?  Or did that not effect scouting and visits and meetings and the combine for all those people you listed?  How about we give the guy a year where things aren't COMPLETELY INSANE in the world before you decide he's terrible.

[bealeb319]

I wouldn’t give him two more years. If Zach isn’t obviously the guy by year end, time to do what cardinals did with Rosen and move on. With a new GM to pick the next savior. Jets have not only been bad but they also haven’t learned how to fail fast. Every disastrous era of our history has played out in slow motion.

I think with the Cardinals Rosen was a bit worse off than not obviously the guy. The kid was lazy entitled and and he flat out was terrible. If Zach shows promise you don't dump him or waste a pick on a qb unless you are certain that qb is going to be great.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

[UntouchableCrew]

42 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

The Eagles had success when he was part of the organization.  That is a matter of record.  But that credit may not not have been his portion.   They may have had success because of him or in spite of him or somewhere in between those two.  We don't know.  What we do know is that few if any of his players are panning out.  With two off seasons, we should see a quality offensive line as a minimum.  What we see is a mess.  

The fact that he cut his teeth as a scout for the Ravens means more to me than his tenure in Philly. The Ravens were the best drafting org in the NFL for the entire time he was there.

But yeah, the combination of 1) his success with the Ravens and Eagles, 2) his supposedly strong reputation in NFL circles 3) his excellent track record with trades and 4) his overall approach to the draft and UFA leads me to believe he has the right approach to win.

The problem is just that his first draft has been underwhelming and he's made a few key mistakes in FA (most notably Robby Anderson.)

[THE BARON]

31 minutes ago, Origen said:

Which one of those picks was made in a world without Covid restrictions effecting EVERYTHING?  Or did that not effect scouting and visits and meetings and the combine for all those people you listed?  How about we give the guy a year where things aren't COMPLETELY INSANE in the world before you decide he's terrible.

That might be a valid point or it may be BS.  I don't know if the restrictions were such that it deprived the GM's of information and access to prospects in a way that would make a big difference in their ability to make sound decisions.  What I do know is that other GMs stuck gold in the same draft.  So, I'd say it is a lame excuse
 

 

[Origen]

1 minute ago, THE BARON said:

That might be a valid point or it may be BS.  I don't know if the restrictions were such that it deprived the GM's of information and access to prospects in a way that would make a big difference in their ability to make sound decisions.  What I do know is that other GMs stuck gold in the same draft.  So, I'd say it is a lame excuse
 

 

When you are trying to go for athletic upside over a more proven but limited top end, you are not always going to hit.  That's why freaking out over 1 draft is stupid.  If 2 years from now Becton and Mims are All-Pros and what was the point of any of this conversation?  So you could be the first to say "See I told you they sucked" before anyone else did and get that valuable SoJ street cred?  Why not let time happen and give this a chance to play out before deciding you need to get some attention?

[THE BARON]

6 minutes ago, Origen said:

When you are trying to go for athletic upside over a more proven but limited top end, you are not always going to hit.  That's why freaking out over 1 draft is stupid.  If 2 years from now Becton and Mims are All-Pros and what was the point of any of this conversation?  So you could be the first to say "See I told you they sucked" before anyone else did and get that valuable SoJ street cred?  Why not let time happen and give this a chance to play out before deciding you need to get some attention?

Becton and Mimms are the lesser part of the issue. EVERYONE including JD agreed that the oline should come first and he was advertised as the o-line guru.  The Jets offensive line is one of the worst if not the worst in the league right now.  That is inexcusable.  You have back-up quality players at three positions, a LT that may be a washout and a new guard that we have seen nothing of yet.  

 

[k-met57]

2 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

I wanted Wirtz over Becton. Watching Wirtz jump out of a pool was so impressive.....  then  he took Cameron Clarke from UNCC as that was Becton's friend.  Both have not seen the field and Wirtz is kicking ass.

Wirfs plays on a team with a QB who gets rid of the ball faster then anyone in history, Bechton played 1 year and 1 game on the jets. lets not compare apples and oranges.

[SOJ]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Well, Douglas and Saleh were desired candidates with options. We got them because we sold them on the idea that "this time it's different."

Wilson was wary of coming here after the failure of the team to support Darnold. We sold him and his family on the idea that "this time it's different."

If you fire Douglas and draft a new QB in 2022 you are unequivocally telling everyone "nothing is different."

Where did you read that about Wilson?  If its true and I do not doubt you, how's that working out for Mr. W after week 1?  next up BB and non-stop 0Bs....  

[UntouchableCrew]

5 minutes ago, SOJ said:

Where did you read that about Wilson?  If its true and I do not doubt you, how's that working out for Mr. W after week 1?  next up BB and non-stop 0Bs....  

There were rumors pre-draft that he (or more specifically his dad) were wary of the Jets based on how they'd handled Darnold and that Douglas assured them we'd do everything possible to support their son.

It's all hearsay, but I have no reason to doubt it. 

[Origen]

22 hours ago, THE BARON said:

Becton and Mimms are the lesser part of the issue. EVERYONE including JD agreed that the oline should come first and he was advertised as the o-line guru.  The Jets offensive line is one of the worst if not the worst in the league right now.  That is inexcusable.  You have back-up quality players at three positions, a LT that may be a washout and a new guard that we have seen nothing of yet.  

 

And Mike Ditka was a Hall of Fame Tight End who traded an entire Draft class to get Ricky Williams.  Everybody is an idiot or a genius, which was he?

#1 He's not the only GM out there offering contracts to players, other teams are involved.  If you want to "build" a team you can't overwhelm every free agent you want to guarantee they will come and expect to have any money to be able to do anything else.

#2 LT who had no preseason last year and played out pretty damn well, then people freaked out about practice reps and the first game sucked because of the other side of the line.  OK, sure.  But they are learning a new system and playing together for the first time, kinda like last year, so seeing the results like last year while disappointing was not all that shocking.

#3 LG who missed the whole preseason and played his first NFL game ever. 

 

I would hate to see how you rate yourself at the end of each day with the criteria you seem to have for others. 

Edited September 16, 2021 by Origen
Derp