How long to determine success or failure of a draft pick?

[AFJF]

3 games?  3 seasons?  Somewhere in between.

Edited October 27, 2021 by AFJF

[jgb]

Difficult to say. Some guys jump off the page immediately in a positive or negative way. So I'm going with Bill Walsh here. He said it takes a season-and-a-half of starts to know. Of course, he was talking about QBs, not in general.

[Bronx]

When they leave the NYJets.

[AFJF]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

Difficult to say. Some guys jump off the page immediately in a positive or negative way. So I'm going with Bill Walsh here. He said it takes a season-and-a-half of starts to know. Of course, he was talking about QBs, not in general.

Always remembered reading that quote from Walsh but could never find it when I looked for it a few years ago.  As is the case with just about everything else, QBs are a different animal but there are some players who look legit sooner than others.  Even with the current roster I'd say AVT and Moore look the part.  Moore's numbers are trash but that doesn't mean he isn't consistently getting open.

[SpankyJohnson]

Jets rookies get about 8 minutes into the first quarter of the first game .  Then it's time to blow it up and start over. 

[jgb]

29 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Always remembered reading that quote from Walsh but could never find it when I looked for it a few years ago.  As is the case with just about everything else, QBs are a different animal but there are some players who look legit sooner than others.  Even with the current roster I'd say AVT and Moore look the part.  Moore's numbers are trash but that doesn't mean he isn't consistently getting open.

Plus I think Walsh's point is misunderstood or, perhaps more accurately, its meaning is oversimplified. He wasn't saying you cannot make any conclusions before 24 games. He was saying that by 24 games you can come to a conclusion about everyone.

[Cut Jet Penalty Makers]

I called Davis, Perine, Morgan and Zuniga as bad picks just after draft day..time has been kind to that analysis. 

[sciond]

standard answer 3 years

truth when another team picks them up

[Claymation]

I called Davis, Perine, Morgan and Zuniga as bad picks just after draft day..time has been kind to that analysis. 

Davis led the team with 10 solo tackles this past week. FYI

[Mark78]

54 minutes ago, Bronx said:

When they leave the NYJets.

Talk to Sam and Geno about that

[New York Mick]

It depends on the position. 

[DonCorleone]

We won't be able to tell how well the Jets Drafted until the current regime is gone. See Mims on the bench or as a blocker and a handful of running plays. Personnel is being misused on many positions

[PFSIKH]

50 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

It depends on the position. 

This.

A player on the OL/DL or a skill position can probably get by with their athletic talent.  

A QB success is largely dictated by their environment.  Is it a stable and a well run franchise?  Is their supporting talent?    As been said numerous times, there is a reason the teams are drafting high, they are bad.  Look at Lamar Jackson, if he was drafted by the four teams who drafted a QB ahead of him, would he have been as successful?  I think for two of the teams you can say no (Jets and Browns).  Arizona and Buffalo he probably would be successful.  

[More Cowbell]

I think by halfway  in season 2 there should be enough evidence  that there is something to develop or not. As bad as last Sundays game was, Mooore showed he can do something  really good, he can make people moss around the LOS. Moore can make a living doing that. That is the kind of development  you want to see.

[Barry McCockinner]

I think by the end of season 2 you usually have a pretty good idea of who a player is. Coaching staff turnover can stunt growth though. Surrounding cast can also make a huge difference. For example, you can be the best WR in the world but if your o-line is bad in pass pro, QB is awful and your coach runs the ball most of the time, it won't show up much. 

[FTL Jet Fan]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

Difficult to say. Some guys jump off the page immediately in a positive or negative way. So I'm going with Bill Walsh here. He said it takes a season-and-a-half of starts to know. Of course, he was talking about QBs, not in general.

Except if you are the QB for the NY Jets then you get 2-3 games. The majority of fans hate you before you get here or they predict you are a bust just because you are not the QB they wanted. Then you have to deal with the organization and CS.

In short, stay away from the  NYJ. Jets fans will be happy taking out there anger and misery arguing and insulting each other with Meme’s on message boards. Good times.

[jgb]

9 minutes ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

Except if you are the QB for the NY Jets then you get 2-3 games. The majority of fans hate you before you get here or they predict you are a bust just because you are not the QB they wanted. Then you have to deal with the organization and CS.

In short, stay away from the  NYJ. Jets fans will be happy taking out there anger and misery arguing and insulting each other with Meme’s on message boards. Good times.

Predicting someone will be a bust is not the same as "hate."

I predict it will rain this weekend but I really hope it is sunny.

I do not accept your anecdotal observation that a "majority" of Jets fans hate/are invested in the failure of our new #2 overall draft pick. I know modern society elevates victimhood status to sainthood but every story doesn't have a victim and an oppressor.

[FTL Jet Fan]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Predicting someone will be a bust is not the same as "hate."

I predict it will rain this weekend but I really hope it is sunny.

I do not accept your anecdotal observation that a "majority" of Jets fans hate/are invested in the failure of our new #2 overall draft pick. I know modern society elevates victimhood status to sainthood but every story doesn't have a victim and an oppressor.

Unfortunately for the NYJ it does. 

[jgb]

6 minutes ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

Unfortunately for the NYJ it does. 

Yeah well from my point of view this place is overly optimistic about every new QB that comes through the door.

[Biggs]

When you have a roster as bad as the Jets roster, players who are drafted and not quality starters will still start.  That doesn't mean they are good.  

Picking starters for the Jets roster is an extremely low bar.  

[SAR I]

In most cases it's not a matter of time, it's a matter of effort.

You can tell that guys who get mysterious injuries and miss a lot of practice time in training camp are going to bust.  And it happens to us a lot.

There is a really good Tom Brady interview on a podcast released yesterday, he explained that the NFL is full of guys who are just happy to have their first contract or just content to be on the practice squad.  They don't actually want to be successful NFL players or win a championship.  They feel like getting to the NFL is the reward for a childhood of sacrifice.  They buy their mom a house and pack it in.  Joe Douglas loves these types.

SAR I

[FTL Jet Fan]

16 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yeah well from my point of view this place is overly optimistic about every new QB that comes through the door.

Look at the the majority of the posts that have been started about how  ZW sucks, trade for Watson, we need to draft another QB, etc. I understand the frustration but some need  to have realistic expectations as to what this team is, and now we have to wait until next season. You know as well as I do the patience of this fanbase,  they were booing Wilson within a month. Hey, different points of view you know. 

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, FTL Jet Fan said:

Look at the the majority of the posts that have been started about how  ZW sucks, trade for Watson, we need to draft another QB, etc. I understand the frustration but some need  to have realistic expectations as to what this team is, and now we have to wait until next season. You know as well as I do the patience of this fanbase,  they were booing Wilson within a month. Hey, different points of view you know. 

Again, we see what confirms what we believe.

[section314]

3 hours ago, Cut Jet Penalty Makers said:

I called Davis, Perine, Morgan and Zuniga as bad picks just after draft day..time has been kind to that analysis. 

You are watching the games, right?

[kevinc855]

3 hours ago, Claymation said:

Davis led the team with 10 solo tackles this past week. FYI

I thought tackles didnt matter? Box safety and all

[kevinc855]

29 minutes ago, SAR I said:

he explained that the NFL is full of guys who are just happy to have their first contract or just content to be on the practice squad.  They don't actually want to be successful NFL players or win a championship.  They feel like getting to the NFL is the reward for a childhood of sacrifice.  They buy their mom a house and pack it in. 

Heard about this as well. Money has become so ridiculous that just getting signed to PS can be life changing for these guys. Plus now with all the news of head injuries, guys are literally stealing from the NFL. (ie see Blake Glassman) 

Also, they are predicting playing careers will be shorter. Why stick around? Take the money and walk. 

Money is killing this sport. 

[Claymation]

30 minutes ago, SAR I said:

In most cases it's not a matter of time, it's a matter of effort.

You can tell that guys who get mysterious injuries and miss a lot of practice time in training camp are going to bust.  And it happens to us a lot.

There is a really good Tom Brady interview on a podcast released yesterday, he explained that the NFL is full of guys who are just happy to have their first contract or just content to be on the practice squad.  They don't actually want to be successful NFL players or win a championship.  They feel like getting to the NFL is the reward for a childhood of sacrifice.  They buy their mom a house and pack it in.  Joe Douglas loves these types.

SAR I

Could you provide the link, I would love to hear it. Thanks

[Claymation]

6 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

I thought tackles didnt matter? Box safety and all

Not following.

[Fantasy Island]

3 hours ago, AFJF said:

Always remembered reading that quote from Walsh but could never find it when I looked for it a few years ago.  As is the case with just about everything else, QBs are a different animal but there are some players who look legit sooner than others.  Even with the current roster I'd say AVT and Moore look the part.  Moore's numbers are trash but that doesn't mean he isn't consistently getting open.

Moore may not know all the route trees.  Mims got a pass, now no one studies.

 

[section314]

2 hours ago, New York Mick said:

It depends on the position. 

Agreed. Also, there are outliers in every draft class that just jump off the page right away. This year it seems to be guys like Pitts, Chase and the Giant's kid Ojulari, to name a few. For the majority of rookies, you would normally like to see positive evidence the last 4-5 games, and have it carry over witha bigger impact in year two. 24 games seems pretty fair. The one wild card, obviously is no major injury.

[JiFapono]

Position and player dependent but it doesnt take 3 years to figure it out anymore, that's for sure.  I'd say about after a year in a half, you know what you got or if you need to find an upgrade.

[section314]

11 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

Heard about this as well. Money has become so ridiculous that just getting signed to PS can be life changing for these guys. Plus now with all the news of head injuries, guys are literally stealing from the NFL. (ie see Blake Glassman) 

Also, they are predicting playing careers will be shorter. Why stick around? Take the money and walk. 

Money is killing this sport. 

This will make #3, it's already claimed the NBA and MLB, excluding Charlie Morton after last night. The only one it will never get is the NHL......those guys are a different breed.

[kevinc855]

1 minute ago, section314 said:

NHL......those guys are a different breed.

Agreed, the last of the true warrior culture. 

[Beerfish]

A year and a half maybe but in many cases you know really really soon whether you have something as in after the 1st training camp.  A young player has to show something early and even if they have uneven patches they can improve. 

Thus a guy like Elijah Moore showed great in camp fell back and did not play well but made a nice play last game.

Then we have guys like Zuniga who did nothing in 1st camp, nothing 1st year, nothing 2nd camp.

[section314]

8 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

A year and a half maybe but in many cases you know really really soon whether you have something as in after the 1st training camp.  A young player has to show something early and even if they have uneven patches they can improve. 

Thus a guy like Elijah Moore showed great in camp fell back and did not play well but made a nice play last game.

Then we have guys like Zuniga who did nothing in 1st camp, nothing 1st year, nothing 2nd camp.

The way this year is shaping up, when this guy is healthy, and it's a big if obviuosly, he should play a ton as soon as he's able. Huff is a liability now, and they are out of excuses. Play him, maybe you see the guy they thought they were getting.