Jump to content

How long to determine success or failure of a draft pick?


How long to determine success or failure of a draft pick?  

62 members have voted

  1. 1. How many games do you have to see a guy play before you can say he was a good or bad pick? Standard used to be 3 years but seems to have changed dramatically in recent years for fans.

    • 3 games
      3
    • 6 games
      0
    • 12 games
      5
    • 18 games
      7
    • 24 games
      17
    • 30+ games
      15
    • 3 full seasons
      15


Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, section314 said:

The way this year is shaping up, when this guy is healthy, and it's a big if obviuosly, he should play a ton as soon as he's able. Huff is a liability now, and they are out of excuses. Play him, maybe you see the guy they thought they were getting.

He's able.  He's just not good.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 76
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Jets rookies get about 8 minutes into the first quarter of the first game .  Then it's time to blow it up and start over. 

Davis led the team with 10 solo tackles this past week. FYI

Difficult to say. Some guys jump off the page immediately in a positive or negative way. So I'm going with Bill Walsh here. He said it takes a season-and-a-half of starts to know. Of course, he was ta

2 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

But those tackles were 10-20 yards down field.  Zero impactful plays or PBUs 

They way the rest of the D was a total no show, he doesn't make those tackles, the Pats score 120.

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

There are always outliers, Farrior was considered a bust after 3 years as a Jet, then goes to Pittsburgh and becomes one of the best in the league for many years.

Cotchery got no chance to play his first couple of years, only when mangjni came along and recognised his ability did he become one of our best players of the last 20 odd years

Pouha too was a non factor until year 3 or 4 when, once again coaching and scheme change and opportunity turned him into one of the best pure NT’s in the league 

Every so often good players with talent and ability only emerge after time, sometimes 2 or 3 years later and usually due to the circumstances or coaching.

EDIT: forgot to mention Demario Davis, another guy we were ready to run out of town after 3 years and who practically nobody lamented the loss of when he first left as a FA but who we watch now  and every time there’s a Saints game people lament the fact we ‘let him go’ 

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Claymation said:


Davis led the team with 10 solo tackles this past week. FYI

I noticed that during the game.  Most of them were RB's untouched on runs or screens.  Maye had a bunch too.

Davis made some solid tackles in open space. Good for him to be back and showing something.

On the other hand, when your free safety leads your team in tackles... 

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jgb said:

Yeah well from my point of view this place is overly optimistic about every new QB that comes through the door.

Not just the new QB.  Players too like Mims and Ashton Davis and the rest of those first draft bums.

And front office too.  The slobbering here for the rookie GM and coaches was annoying.

  • Upvote 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

But those tackles were 10-20 yards down field.  Zero impactful plays or PBUs 

Yeah, Davis has shown no cover skills at all, at least not yet.  He's fast and a willing tackler, but he looks like the kind of guy who will get hurt a lot. Seems to go flying in with his head down. 

I'd love to be wrong about him.  Zuniga was a worse pick b/c he had an injury history in college. Total waste of a 3rd round pick.

  • Upvote 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it really depends on the draft pick. Some you can tell right off the bat that they suck. But most of them take a year or 2 to develop and understand the NFL, because believe it or not, College football is almost a different sport in many instances. And Bill Belichick is a scumbag.

Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, dcJet said:

I noticed that during the game.  Most of them were RB's untouched on runs or screens.  Maye had a bunch too.

Davis made some solid tackles in open space. Good for him to be back and showing something.

On the other hand, when your free safety leads your team in tackles... 

That's more of an indictment on the defense than on the player. The Williams brothers had 5 tackles between the both of them.

  • Upvote 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, addage said:

For many fans, anything over 35 seconds is a lot.

There are just as many fans who thought Chris Herdon was gonna break out and become Gronk in year 4 so these thing always go both ways.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I would like to say 2-3 years 

but it seems like more now than ever, they either have it or they don’t 

probably can count on one hand over the last 5 years guys who struggled early and became good players

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, addage said:

For many fans, anything over 35 seconds is a lot.

I still remember the case of Joe McKnight ... his very first training camp session he threw up. He was labelled forever as an out-of-shape bum by more than a few posters, and it was constantly brought up (if you'll pardon the pun!) for years afterwards.

I know they say "first impressions last", but geez ... 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, section314 said:

Probably, but we literally have no reason not to play him till he drops if healthy.

But he's healthy.  When he played last season he was routinely dropped by opposing O-linemen.  He saw close to zero reps in pre-season action.  No reason to believe he'll be any good.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, AFJF said:

But he's healthy.  When he played last season he was routinely dropped by opposing O-linemen.  He saw close to zero reps in pre-season action.  No reason to believe he'll be any good.

I suspect that you are probably right on, but it’s not like he would be taking snaps from anyone who is any good. I guess you and I just look at it differently. I would give him every opportunity to show if he is angry good, or if he in fact stinks, which is probably the case. Hell, they gave Gholston 3 years, but at least he got a real shot. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, redlichtie said:

Farrior was considered a bust after 3 years as a Jet,

If I recall correctly, Farrior played well but wasn't a scheme fit for the new defense. I remember being upset that he wasn't resigned, and I also recall other Jets fans also being upset. I could be wrong. Am I misremembering? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, section314 said:

I suspect that you are probably right on, but it’s not like he would be taking snaps from anyone who is any good. I guess you and I just look at it differently. I would give him every opportunity to show if he is angry good, or if he in fact stinks, which is probably the case. Hell, they gave Gholston 3 years, but at least he got a real shot. 

He stinks.  Let them give the reps to  Rashed instead if we are going to be pulling practice squad players.  You think Huff has performed bad and your solution is to move to Zuniga?   **** him.  The only thing he has shown over Huff is draft position.   

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

If I recall correctly, Farrior played well but wasn't a scheme fit for the new defense. I remember being upset that he wasn't resigned, and I also recall other Jets fans also being upset. I could be wrong. Am I misremembering? 

Kind of misremembering.  Parcells drafted him to play the LT position and everyone got all excited.   He basically sucked for 3 years and was benched for much of that time.  Then Herm came along in 2001, moved him inside and he excelled.  He signed a FA deal with Pittsburgh continued playing inside and playing well.  Jets were too busy paying the Damien Robinsons of the world.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

He stinks.  Let them give the reps to  Rashed instead if we are going to be pulling practice squad players.  You think Huff has performed bad and your solution is to move to Zuniga?   **** him.  The only thing he has shown over Huff is draft position.   

In all honesty, the way this D has taken the last two weeks off, the only guys who should have job security are Mosley and Davis. I would suit both Rasheed and Zuniga up, and Yeboah on the other side of the ball.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, section314 said:

In all honesty, the way this D has taken the last two weeks off, the only guys who should have job security are Mosley and Davis. I would suit both Rasheed and Zuniga up, and Yeboah on the other side of the ball.

Jabari Zuniga being next man up is the literal definition of job security.  I am not happy with anything, but the idaa that anyone would be better is why we keep moving backwards.  Any coach is better than Gase.  Any QB is better than Darnold.  Well,  here we are. 

  • Upvote 2
  • Post of the Week 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, section314 said:

In all honesty, the way this D has taken the last two weeks off, the only guys who should have job security are Mosley and Davis. I would suit both Rasheed and Zuniga up, and Yeboah on the other side of the ball.

If you put a stiff like Zuniga in there the whole locker room will quit.

There’s bad and there’s worst in the league levels of bad. Zuniga is the latter.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

If you put a stiff like Zuniga in there the whole locker room will quit.

There’s bad and there’s worst in the league levels of bad. Zuniga is the latter.

Not if this guy has swallowed his pride as a high pick that ended up on the practice squad.  busted his ass to get healthy and better, and earned the chance legitimately. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, New York Mick said:

It depends on the position. 

Running backs, immediately.

Everyone else should get at least a year plus to prove they don't suck.

***Except Zuniga

Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

If youre the Jets, about 1.3 seconds after its announced at the podium.

I can't remember anytime in the last decade the so-call draft experts in the media gave the Jets a bad grade immediately after the draft.  MacCagnan was always lauded for his drafts. And yet ...

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, y2k8 said:

I can't remember anytime in the last decade the so-call draft experts in the media gave the Jets a bad grade immediately after the draft.  MacCagnan was always lauded for his drafts. And yet ...

I instanly knew Macc was abum the moment he kept Geno on the roster as his starter.  I'm sure many on this forum fought he was the next best thing since Ice coffee. What a fraud. Its's shocking someone hasnt stolen all of the Johnsons money and put them in the same hole the Wilpons put themselves in.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Maynard13 said:

I instanly knew Macc was abum the moment he kept Geno on the roster as his starter.  I'm sure many on this forum fought he was the next best thing since Ice coffee. What a fraud. Its's shocking someone hasnt stolen all of the Johnsons money and put them in the same hole the Wilpons put themselves in.

We like Mark.

We like Geno.

We like Bryce

We like Christian.

  • Upvote 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, jamesr said:

Apologies if this is a bit of a non-answer, but there are so many variables to take into account.

Some picks flame out straight away. This is probably bad scouting, some background issue that never got flagged. E.g. Jachai Polite, cut in training camp and a total wash out. No need to give this guy three seasons, call it a bust.

Some picks are not meant to be anything straight away and are "raw talent to develop" kinds of guys. If they're picked 6th / 7th round that's fine, and a large amount of these won't work out but were worth a try. A good example here is Brandon Moore. I know he wasn't a draft pick, he was an UDFA, but he was a DT in college, spent time on our PS, NFL Europe, Arena League, and eventually saw a bit of playing time that turned into him starting 13 games two years later. Turned out to be an excellent guard, made a Pro Bowl and well worth the investment that was made. If we'd picked him 2nd or 3rd round he'd still have been a good pick in the long run ... but the early expectations would have outweighed his initial return. Sometimes these guys take till their second contract before they blossom, but hopefully that is a relatively cheap contract compared to where they end up.

If "raw talent" guys are earlier picks then the timetable accelerates - otherwise why pick them earlier to start with? There has to be a plan in place to get these guys up to speed quicker otherwise they are over drafted vs. their eventual value.

Injuries are always a big unknown. E.g. Davis got slated last year for being hurt, but having finally been on the field he looks like he could possibly be a player - but this is essentially Year 1 in his evaluation. Too early to call him a bust but also too early to proclaim him as a success either. He's likely to be the sort of guy that after 2 seasons of playing (assuming no more injuries) you can then judge what he is / isn't.

Coaching and scheme changes will also play a part ... Perine was drafted to play under Gase & co, not Saleh & co. Not saying he was a good pick or a bad pick, but he may be a guy we move on from because he just doesn't fit - hardly his fault if the job he was drafted to do changes significantly. And this goes to emphasise the damage that constant changes in coaching and system can do to an organisation; many of your picks become obsolete if you change from 4-3 to 3-4 every two or three years, or man blocking to zone blocking, etc.

Lastly the big draft picks - your supposed franchise QB and the sort - you have to give them as much support and time as you can simply because of the investment made (IMHO). We gave Sam 3 years but not a lot of surrounding cast ... it was time to move on but he was always up against it based on the situation here (changing HC, OC, lack of talent etc). I still doubt that any QB from that year would have succeeded here - would Allen or Jackson have been able to develop and shine or would they now be the big bust had we drafted them? Again why stability is so important; Allen and Jackson have had the same coaches, same system, and it has been built around them to play to their strengths. You can build a system to fit your QB (e.g. Jackson) or draft a QB to fit your system (e.g. Jones) but a mismatch between the two spells trouble - and this is what we need to sort ASAP. Build a system to suit Zach's strengths, rather than teaching him to fit your system. He definitely needs more time, but he also needs that support in both system and surrounding talent. Go find a top WR talent for him like Buffalo did, for example. If you do all that then after 2.5 / 3 years you can get an honest evaluation. If you do none of it then you have to start the evaluation with the organisation itself - is it set up to make guys succeed or to make them fail?

this is an excellent post. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, section314 said:

Not if this guy has swallowed his pride as a high pick that ended up on the practice squad.  busted his ass to get healthy and better, and earned the chance legitimately. 

Has anybody mentioned this, or did you just watch Rudy again?  

  • Upvote 1
  • Post of the Week 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...