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How long to determine success or failure of a draft pick?

How long to determine success or failure of a draft pick?  

62 members have voted

  1. 1. How many games do you have to see a guy play before you can say he was a good or bad pick? Standard used to be 3 years but seems to have changed dramatically in recent years for fans.

    • 3 games
    • 6 games
    • 12 games
    • 18 games
    • 24 games
    • 30+ games
    • 3 full seasons

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Jets rookies get about 8 minutes into the first quarter of the first game .  Then it's time to blow it up and start over. 

Davis led the team with 10 solo tackles this past week. FYI

Difficult to say. Some guys jump off the page immediately in a positive or negative way. So I'm going with Bill Walsh here. He said it takes a season-and-a-half of starts to know. Of course, he was ta

6 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

WRs and receiving TEs as well. 

Yeah, the rule of thumb 15 or 20 years ago was that WRs didn't have their "breakout" season until year 3. That timeline has definitely accelerated in recent times. I wouldn't say immediately, but it needs to click for them in Year 2 or they are done. 

But then again, even QBs better be good or they will move on in a blink. See Rosen, Tua, etc.

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There is no absolute answer to this, and pretending otherwise is one of the biggest issues.  You have draft picks who don't even last through final cutdowns in their rookie years.  Are we going to pretend that's just mindlessly done for sh*ts and giggles, or is that just a few months was already enough to convince the very same GMs who selected them in the first place that they clearly don't have what it takes?

How long it takes is going to greatly vary depending on whether the initial evaluations are a player not quite living up to their original expectations out of the gate, as opposed to the player looking like they aren't even fit to be in the NFL.

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On 10/27/2021 at 1:11 PM, section314 said:

I suspect that you are probably right on, but it’s not like he would be taking snaps from anyone who is any good. I guess you and I just look at it differently. I would give him every opportunity to show if he is angry good, or if he in fact stinks, which is probably the case. Hell, they gave Gholston 3 years, but at least he got a real shot. 


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4 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:


He put a nice shot on Burrow. Just hope he can be a contributor to the rotation. I focused on him a bunch today at the game and on more than on occasion, the Bengals gave Williams TE help on passing downs. This was a fun game today. Makes our trip early Tuesday morning out to Indy much easier.😁

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