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Some interesting personnel grouping trends under LaFleur. What works, what doesn't, how far he's strayed from SF.


Coffee Is Great
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We don’t have 2 running backs that they “”trust”. That is probably why there is no “21l”.

I want to see some perine. Let’s see what we drafted!! 
 

this is a very interesting and informative post and I learned from it, thanks!

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1 hour ago, Coffee Is Great said:

For the uninitiated:

11 = 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR

12 = 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR

21 - 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR 

Our top two groupings are 11 and 12, pretty standard for NFL teams but a big change from how things worked in SF.

11: 61% of our plays. Squarely in the middle of the pack, ranking 16th in the league.

12: 32% of our plays. This ranks fourth in the NFL. LaFleur loves his two TE sets.

21: 1% of our plays. We've ran five all year.

 

For 12, the top two teams are MIA and ATL but these stats are misleading as Gesicki and Pitts line up wide or in the slot frequently and are TEs in name only. In truth, those are 11 personnel for those two teams. DAL is the third team above us, who feed Zeke and have a solid TE in Schultz. Then there's us: a team who can't run the ball and has subpar TEs trotting out this grouping a third of the time. It's malpractice. 

For 11, while we're in the middle of the pack in terms of usage, we rank second in the league for pass rate out of 11, dropping back 79% of the time. Granted there are many variables to consider (us being terrible and behind frequently thus needing to throw the ball, etc.) being one of the more predictable playcallers isn't something you strive for.

Now let's look at the success of these two groupings.

11

Passer Rating: 75.4

TD: INT: 4:5

YPC: 4.6

12

Passer Rating: 28.7

TD: INT: 1:6 (!!!)

YPC: 3.3

In short, LaFleur needs to throw 12 personnel in the trash. We can't run the ball and we sure as hell can't throw the ball out of this grouping. I get that he wants to help his OL by having two TEs out there but Coleman and Ty Johnson are capable blockers and it gives you more flexibility and a great chance to keep the defense on it's toes. I'm sure that 12 is a shock to Wilson's system too, coming from the college game.

 

For those curious, how this compares to SF.

Last year, so we have a full season to look at.

11: 44% (29th)

12: 12% (27th)

21: 32% (1st)

2021

11: 45% (27th)

12: 11% (29th)

21: 32% (1st)

LaFleur left the 21 grouping in SF. Now SF has had a nice stable of RBs for years, but they also pick up guys off the street and turn them into productive players. I believe it's more the system than the players. The Jets clearly likes Carter, Coleman is a vet with experience in the system and both guys can catch the ball. Not that this will solve our woes, but it's interesting that LaFleur has left a sizeable chunk of their playbook and system in California.

interesting read. thanks for doing the research.

is this all that we have done? have we tried any 4 WR sets? you would think with the offense so bad we would try everything. and i get that they probably would blitz a CB with the empty backfield but there would have to be some matchup problem that Zach should be able to read at the LOS. 

we are stacked at WR, throw 4 of them out there and im sure they dont have 4 CBs that match up well to us. there got to be a mismatch somewhere.

 

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Outstanding outstanding post and something I’d been wondering about. Thanks for doing the research and sharing.

I had expected more 21 as well but SF has arguably the best FB in the league and Douglas neglected to bring one in.

Running that much 12 with this tight end grouping seemed negligent before reading the stats you posted. My goodness. Also the Herndon trade was great value but if you’re planning to put two tight ends on the field on a third of the snaps you probably need to prioritize depth there.

Is there any chance some of the heavy 12 is Wesco lining up in that backfield a la Pitts and Gesicki out wide? Still obviously a bad grouping but would bring the 12 and 21 closer together in terms of percentages and make a little more sense.

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Good TEs are critical in todays NFL.  You need at least one threat one and then at least one dual threat and then a blocker who can catch the odd pass.

The Jets have none of the above,

This is on Douglas more than anyone imo

Drafting jag backs and back up qbs and a bunch of small lb and such later and not one stinking TE of note.  Yeboah has some skills but needs lots of work.

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3 hours ago, doitny said:

interesting read. thanks for doing the research.

is this all that we have done? have we tried any 4 WR sets? you would think with the offense so bad we would try everything. and i get that they probably would blitz a CB with the empty backfield but there would have to be some matchup problem that Zach should be able to read at the LOS. 

we are stacked at WR, throw 4 of them out there and im sure they dont have 4 CBs that match up well to us. there got to be a mismatch somewhere.

 


I imagine the thinking there would be 4-WR sets would leave the OL and Wilson exposed. 

Not that that should matter much.  He’s exposed either way.

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If LaFleur constantly puts Moore on the outside and continues to bench Mims really doesn’t matter what formations they use since those two guys are not in their proper positions. Moore should be in the slot so he can use his quickness in space and not hampered by the natural boundaries on the sideline which limits his effectiveness and Mims should be playing regardless. LaFleur is the biggest reason this team looks so dam bad at this time 

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7 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Who knew you’d need NFL tight ends to run effective sets with two tight ends.

I’d seen this before but looking at the production is just even more damning. This is on Saleh too for not intervening in something so blatant.

Do we not have analytics guys highlighting these failures? Or are we just that convinced of the value of Ryan Griffin.

This just scream stubborn coaches forcing the players to adapt to them rather than the reverse. Trash.

That is why I think people need to cool it with condemning JD for now. He has drafted mostly capable players, this is far more on the coaches 

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LaFleur insist on running 12 personnel at a high rate. It’s unbelievable.

This is why I think getting two TEs and an outside WR who will kick Elijah Moore to the slot is critical this offseason. This along with a RG have to be the priority this offseason. Our offense still has a ways to go.

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10 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

LaFleur insist on running 12 personnel at a high rate. It’s unbelievable.

This is why I think getting two TEs and an outside WR who will kick Elijah Moore to the slot is critical this offseason. This along with a RG have to be the priority this offseason. Our offense still has a ways to go.

I believe they already have the receiver so Moore can go to the slot. FREE DENZEL DAMMIT!!!

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3 minutes ago, CSNY said:

I believe they already have the receiver so Moore can go to the slot. FREE DENZEL DAMMIT!!!

Yup. But LaFleur seems to only like him in the X spot. He seems really picky about things. We don’t seem to have a guy that fits what he wants at the z spot. I wish a reporter would ask him detailed questions about personnel grouping and his thinking behind them as well as what he looks for in a player at each position.

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10 hours ago, Wit said:

We don’t have 2 running backs that they “”trust”. That is probably why there is no “21l”.

I want to see some perine. Let’s see what we drafted!! 
 

this is a very interesting and informative post and I learned from it, thanks!

We've seen it and it is not good...no explosiveness..runs right into the pile...lacks peripheral vision..poor adjustments..cannot break tackles..this was a bust of a pick.

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29 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Yup. But LaFleur seems to only like him in the X spot. He seems really picky about things. We don’t seem to have a guy that fits what he wants at the z spot. I wish a reporter would ask him detailed questions about personnel grouping and his thinking behind them as well as what he looks for in a player at each position.

He should really stop being picky if that’s the case since his offense is terrible and what he is running now obviously isn’t working. Even if he has to call a play that spells it out in great detail so Mims understands and the play is Denzel Go Long  and I’ll hit you by the second manhole cover Can’t get much clearer than that 

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3 hours ago, DetroitRed said:

Appreciate the work.

 

most teams don’t have good tight ends.  This is not unique to the Jets

This is true, but I suspect those teams aren't running two TE sets at a high rate.

No teams have everything but you would expect your OC to adjust the system/play calling to the talent.

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