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Will they give the OROY award to Belichick?


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7 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yards per completion:

Aaron Rodgers - 7.4

Mac Jones - 7.2

Patrick Mahomes - 7.1

Air yards per attempt:

Mac Jones - 4.2

Aaron Rodgers - 3.8

Patrick Mahomes - 3.8

 

Yes but those numbers are skewed by that 600 yard run-after-catch by Jakobi Meyers.

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3 minutes ago, Jared said:

I mean the premise of this thread isn't crazy.  The Patriots have definitely decided to not "throw the rookie to the wolves" so to speak.  They are taking a methodical approach to bringing Jones along.  The question I think should be more "Why haven't teams like the Jets/Jags/Bears taken a similar route?"

I must apply Occam's Razor: because you need a good QB to pull it off.

 

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18 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yards per completion:

Aaron Rodgers - 7.4

Mac Jones - 7.2

Patrick Mahomes - 7.1

Air yards per attempt:

Mac Jones - 4.2

Aaron Rodgers - 3.8

Patrick Mahomes - 3.8

 

where are you getting those numbers.

Pro Football Reference has much lower ones. if fact it has Zach much higher that Mac at air yards per att.

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5 minutes ago, doitny said:

where are you getting those numbers.

Pro Football Reference has much lower ones. if fact it has Zach much higher that Mac at air yards per att.

I got it from here:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

You are correct that Zach Wilson has a higher number of air yards per attempt. However, kindly note I was not suggesting that these numbers signify a "good" QB. I was merely responding to the premise that Mac Jones cannot move the ball downfield through the air.

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10 minutes ago, jgb said:

I must apply Occam's Razor: because you need a good QB to pull it off.

 

I get what you mean, but how can you know whether the QB is any good if the coaching staff or supporting cast is any good?  Trey Lance aside, since he isn't playing, of the Jets/Jags/Bears/Pats, which coaching staff do you trust to develop a rookie QB? 

 

Hypothetically, if Mac and Trevor (or Zach) switched teams, which do you think would be more successful?  It is admittedly weird for me as a Pats fan to be intentionally underselling one of my team's players, but rookies don't look good unless they are in good situations.  Mac got a team with maybe no solid stud #1 WR, but a bunch of serviceable #2s, two solid TEs, a good OL, and a good crop of RBs.  He is on a team with a solid defense.  On top of that he has an all time great at HC with a very good Xs and Os OC (Josh's HC bonafides notwithstanding). All he was asked to do was not **** it.

 

That is a very different situation that Trevor or Zach.

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Jones is good and I thought he would be a good player IF he went to the right team and right situation.  He went to the best possible spot he could have went to.

If he had gone to a lesser team like the Jets he would in fact be Mike White, perhaps a bit better of a version.

We will really find out about the Pats over the next 4 weeks.

Tennessee, Indy, and the Bills twice.

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9 minutes ago, jgb said:

I got it from here:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

You are correct that Zach Wilson has a higher number of air yards per attempt. However, kindly note I was not suggesting that these numbers signify a "good" QB. I was merely responding to the premise that Mac Jones cannot move the ball downfield through the air.

nice site.

did you see the Mike White Deep ball passing? i know our eyes told us he was just throwing in short but wow these numbers don't lie.

he has no throws over 30 plus...zero over 40 plus....zero over 50 plus...

Zach Wilson as a comparison. 6 over 30......3 over 40......2 over 50....

you know maybe this CS is right about White. after seeing these numbers and what Buffalo did to him how do you not take the short pass away if your Miami.

i like this site...thanks

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On 11/19/2021 at 12:18 AM, Jared said:

I get what you mean, but how can you know whether the QB is any good if the coaching staff or supporting cast is any good? 

Because this line of thinking leads one into an intellectual spiral that can never inform any conclusions. I am a simple man that believes "good players play good." I believe it is more likely by several orders of magnitude that a QB who plays poorly in a bad situation is just a bad QB. The history of the NFL supports this belief due to the extreme rarity of poorly-performing QBs who "turn it around" under better circumstances. Granted, this line of reasoning may cause me to "miss" the occasional Josh Allen after year 1 but it enables me to avoid the dozens (hundreds?) of QBs who play poorly on bad teams because they themselves are also poor QBs. 

Quote

 

 

Trey Lance aside, since he isn't playing, of the Jets/Jags/Bears/Pats, which coaching staff do you trust to develop a rookie QB? 

It's not a question. Pats are obviously the cream of the crop in terms of coaching. However, Mac Jones still needs to diagnose the defense, process the play, identify the opportunity, and deliver the ball on time and on target. No one can do these things for him during the game.

Quote

 

Hypothetically, if Mac and Trevor (or Zach) switched teams, which do you think would be more successful? 

You'd have to give me significant odds to bet on anyone other than Mac.

Quote

It is admittedly weird for me as a Pats fan to be intentionally underselling one of my team's players, but rookies don't look good unless they are in good situations.

Justin Herbert had a historic rookie year with an OL that graded out as #32 in the NFL. However, I don't believe in analysis by outlier, so I return to my earlier point: bad QBs don't look good in any situation. Situation can magnify a QBs weaknesses or strengths but it cannot define them. If a QB is playing well, it's far more likely that he is himself a good player. Yes, of course exceptions can and do happen but I trust the odds and can live with the misses when the unlikely happens.

Quote

 Mac got a team with maybe no solid stud #1 WR, but a bunch of serviceable #2s, two solid TEs, a good OL, and a good crop of RBs.  He is on a team with a solid defense.  On top of that he has an all time great at HC with a very good Xs and Os OC (Josh's HC bonafides notwithstanding). All he was asked to do was not **** it.

The defense is of course relatively independent of what Mac does. Sure, bad QBs can put their defenses in bad spots more often than good ones, but the Pats' D is good and opportunistic, no argument there. This is why I do not think W/L is a QB statistic. A QB's production is a much more accurate measure of their ability. The Texans won 4 games last year. Deshaun Watson had his best season statistically as a passer despite losing Hopkins, which many predicted would result in Watson's numbers diving. The opposite happened. Good QBs rise above.

Quote

 

That is a very different situation that Trevor or Zach.

No doubt. And it's very early for all of these guys. But hey, GMs have to make franchise-altering decisions on who to draft based on zero data of how these guys perform in the NFL. All I can do is use what data we have now to give an opinion, acknowledging that the sample size is still quite small which of course introduces a wider margin of error than for, say, a guy like Darnold who I can definitively say sucks.

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8 hours ago, jgb said:

Yards per completion:

Aaron Rodgers - 7.4

Mac Jones - 7.2

Patrick Mahomes - 7.1

Air yards per attempt:

Mac Jones - 4.2

Aaron Rodgers - 3.8

Patrick Mahomes - 3.8

 

Rodgers and Mahomes air yards were thrown either no look or underhand.  The Russian judge always gives more style points for the underhand or no look pass. 

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Hilarious that some will deride the Pats' coaching staff for designing a game plan for Jones which allows him to be brought along slowly.  Then give our dopes every excuse in the book because Zack is a disaster.

Even weirder is that Jones has surpassed what they had hoped for him to be at this point by a mile.  He's quietly having a very good year not for a rookie but any NFL QB.   While Zack looks skittish, Jones appears calm and composed behind center.   I wish Zack were playing at this level.

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8 hours ago, Jared said:

I mean the premise of this thread isn't crazy.  The Patriots have definitely decided to not "throw the rookie to the wolves" so to speak.  They are taking a methodical approach to bringing Jones along.  The question I think should be more "Why haven't teams like the Jets/Jags/Bears taken a similar route?"

Yes. It is so frustrating that BB seems to know how to keep everything so freaking simple compared to other coaches, who like to turn football into quantum physics. 

I turned off the game after Mac&Cheese threw a check down which seemed to be his first option based on how quick he went to it. The Pats are truly putting in a master class on how to groom a rookie QB, and surprisingly it turns out to be checkers instead of chess.

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38 minutes ago, munchmemory said:

Hilarious that some will deride the Pats' coaching staff for designing a game plan for Jones which allows him to be brought along slowly.  Then give our dopes every excuse in the book because Zack is a disaster.

Even weirder is that Jones has surpassed what they had hoped for him to be at this point by a mile.  He's quietly having a very good year not for a rookie but any NFL QB.   While Zack looks skittish, Jones appears calm and composed behind center.   I wish Zack were playing at this level.

It is all about the coaching. BB is showing that a team doesn't need a great QB, it needs a guy who will do what he is told to do, and that is Mac&Cheese. I don't think any of the other rookie QBs would have this level of success with the Pats. Too many of these young QBs are filled with piss and vinegar and totally drunk on their own egos while on the field. They always want to do more. Screw doing more, just make sure you accomplish the minimum. 

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13 minutes ago, PFSIKH said:

As they should, he is a system QB.  

Whatever! Kid showed up with “ that pace” just like Brady he’ll carry Belicheck to a couple Superbowls, then his son with the creepy tongue to a couple after he takes over. Seen this already, meanwhile the Jets will wait another decade for  the pig to be ripe for slaughter. 

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I’m not sure how you can’t be impressed with what Jones has done this far.  Regardless of system, he is executing on the field damn near flawlessly.  He’s not missing open guys and he’s more than capable of getting the ball down field.  He’s accurate, poised and is making good decisions.  For people to dismiss him as a “low ceiling” player simply don’t know what they are watching.  

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Obviously Mac Jones is ballin, but before we get him fitted for his gold jacket, I would just remind everyone that RJ III and Saquon Barkley (who just edged out mayfield) were rookies of the year and Sheldon Richardson was the defensive rookie of the year. 
 

My point being, it can be just as foolish to crown someone after initial success as it can be to give up on someone prematurely. We live in this bizarre world of immediate gratification in which we don’t like to wait to assess anything.

It’s ok to maintain a healthy skepticism of anyone 10 games into an NFL career. Ten starts into Chad Pennington’s career, people were comparing him to Montana.  

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6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Obviously Mac Jones is ballin, but before we get him fitted for his gold jacket, I would just remind everyone that RJ III and Saquon Barkley (who just edged out mayfield) were rookies of the year and Sheldon Richardson was the defensive rookie of the year. 
 

My point being, it can be just as foolish to crown someone after initial success as it can be to give up on someone prematurely. We live in this bizarre world of immediate gratification in which we don’t like to wait to assess anything.

It’s ok to maintain a healthy skepticism of anyone 10 games into an NFL career. Ten starts into Chad Pennington’s career, people were comparing him to Montana.  

I mean other than Sheldon injuries ruined all of those players. 

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8 hours ago, jgb said:

Because this line of thinking leads one into an intellectual spiral that can never inform any conclusions. I am a simple man that believes "good players play good." I believe it is more likely by several orders of magnitude that a QB who plays poorly in a bad situation is just a bad QB. The history of the NFL supports this belief due to the extreme rarity of poorly-performing QBs who "turn it around" under better circumstances. Granted, this line of reasoning may cause me to "miss" the occasional Josh Allen after year 1 but it enables me to avoid the dozens (hundreds?) of QBs who play poorly on bad teams because they themselves are also poor QBs. 

It's not a question. Pats are obviously the cream of the crop in terms of coaching. However, Mac Jones still needs to diagnose the defense, process the play, identify the opportunity, and deliver the ball on time and on target. No one can do these things for him during the game.

You'd have to give me significant odds to bet on anyone other than Mac.

Justin Herbert had a historic rookie year with an OL that graded out as #32 in the NFL. However, I don't believe in analysis by outlier, so I return to my earlier point: bad QBs don't look good in any situation. Situation can magnify a QBs weaknesses or strengths but it cannot define them. If a QB is playing well, it's far more likely that he is himself a good player. Yes, of course exceptions can and do happen but I trust the odds and can live with the misses when the unlikely happens.

The defense is of course relatively independent of what Mac does. Sure, bad QBs can put their defenses in bad spots more often than good ones, but the Pats' D is good and opportunistic, no argument there. This is why I do not think W/L is a QB statistic. A QB's production is a much more accurate measure of their ability. The Texans won 4 games last year. Deshaun Watson had his best season statistically as a passer despite losing Hopkins, which many predicted would result in Watson's numbers diving. The opposite happened. Good QBs rise above.

No doubt. And it's very early for all of these guys. But hey, GMs have to make franchise-altering decisions on who to draft based on zero data of how these guys perform in the NFL. All I can do is use what data we have now to give an opinion, acknowledging that the sample size is still quite small which of course introduces a wider margin of error than for, say, a guy like Darnold who I can definitely say sucks.

Psst Mac Jones isn't the Jets QB so this and all your other posts lately seems like a wailing piercing lament to the universe or a cry for help.

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13 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

I’m not sure how you can’t be impressed with what Jones has done this far.  Regardless of system, he is executing on the field damn near flawlessly.  He’s not missing open guys and he’s more than capable of getting the ball down field.  He’s accurate, poised and is making good decisions.  For people to dismiss him as a “low ceiling” player simply don’t know what they are watching.  

Bitter Jets fans 

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