How early is too early for Tyler Linderbaum?

[doitny]

where going to look back at these 5 picks in the top15 in 3 years and hit ourselves in the head for wasting 3 of them on the OL. 

drafting ANY OL in the 1st rd is a mistake. 

we should have drafted a elite WR, but no cause it was a deep WR draft, so lets trade back and take this Mims guy. yeah that worked out well.

i dont know if anyone here heard this but the Miami Dolphins sacked Zach Wilson 6 times on Sunday. 

ok you heard, but did you hear that only 2 are credited to the OL. the other 4 from the blitz

see you can build a wall, dig a moat, put some alligators in it and you still cant protect your QB from a good defense or a good HC. 

[Barry McCockinner]

36 minutes ago, doitny said:

where going to look back at these 5 picks in the top15 in 3 years and hit ourselves in the head for wasting 3 of them on the OL. 

drafting ANY OL in the 1st rd is a mistake. 

we should have drafted a elite WR, but no cause it was a deep WR draft, so lets trade back and take this Mims guy. yeah that worked out well.

i dont know if anyone here heard this but the Miami Dolphins sacked Zach Wilson 6 times on Sunday. 

ok you heard, but did you hear that only 2 are credited to the OL. the other 4 from the blitz

see you can build a wall, dig a moat, put some alligators in it and you still cant protect your QB from a good defense or a good HC. 

probably one of the worst takes I've read on here.

[BurntDice]

Really good breakdown of Linderbaum 
 

 

[TheMo]

The fact that @BurntDice was debating with me about picking him to having to defend him is telling. Take the histrionics to the main board please. He's a strong prospect probably wouldn't take him top ten. Definitely a good choice in the middle part of the draft or the early twenties. I think when I was thumping the table for him I didn't realize how high the picks had become. 

[chirorob]

20 minutes ago, TheMo said:

The fact that @BurntDice was debating with me about picking him to having to defend him is telling. Take the histrionics to the main board please. He's a strong prospect probably wouldn't take him top ten. Definitely a good choice in the middle part of the draft or the early twenties. I think when I was thumping the table for him I didn't realize how high the picks had become. 

I'd love to trade down with the 2nd first round pick, and draft him, or another tackle prospect. 

Fant is (I believe) only signed for 1 more year, and Becton has not shown he can be relied upon for 16 (17) games, so a tackle would also be good in that spot.  Or a WR, since the Jets don't really have much there either.

[Hal N of Provo]

I think it brought some perspective to the discussion.  It’s like buying a car, a house, or taking a job.  You can’t fall in love with the idea or you make mistakes.  
 

This pointed out the flaws.   But after looking at it all I think of it on a bell curve.  
 

The bottom 10% of likelihood for him is a below average run blocker, smart pass protector who get bowled over occasionally by elite IDL.  A 10+ year starter.  Still a good pick on the bad end?  Yes please.  
 

I think his 50% is a good in pass protection, great picking up blitzes ; and an average run blocker.  That’s great and a big step up from now.  
 

His top 10% is elite elite center that gets talked about for 30 years.  
 

It’s at center though. Maybe it wound be fun to build a draft board through the first 2 rounds of Jets picks.    I have a hard time imagining 20 guys I’d rather draft over Linderbaum, but I can’t picture using a top 6 pick either.   

[Barry McCockinner]

https://247sports.com/college/iowa/Article/Tyler-Linderbaum-Iowa-Hawkeyes-Football-Citrus-Bowl-Injury-Offensive-Line-179586921/

 

[BurntDice]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

https://247sports.com/college/iowa/Article/Tyler-Linderbaum-Iowa-Hawkeyes-Football-Citrus-Bowl-Injury-Offensive-Line-179586921/

 

Hopefully it’s nothing serious 

[HawkeyeJet]

21 hours ago, BurntDice said:

Hopefully it’s nothing serious 

He’s fine

[derp]

On 12/22/2021 at 9:03 AM, doitny said:

where going to look back at these 5 picks in the top15 in 3 years and hit ourselves in the head for wasting 3 of them on the OL. 

drafting ANY OL in the 1st rd is a mistake. 

we should have drafted a elite WR, but no cause it was a deep WR draft, so lets trade back and take this Mims guy. yeah that worked out well.

i dont know if anyone here heard this but the Miami Dolphins sacked Zach Wilson 6 times on Sunday. 

ok you heard, but did you hear that only 2 are credited to the OL. the other 4 from the blitz

see you can build a wall, dig a moat, put some alligators in it and you still cant protect your QB from a good defense or a good HC. 

I get you’re kind of ranting here but the first two WR’s taken after the Jets took Becton have disappointed too and the best in the draft by a wide margin was the fourth taken. Chase is a monster but is the only WR at the top of the league right now who was taken in the top half of the first round. It’s probably easier to make a case for taking WR early being a mistake than it is for OL.

If there’s any easy criticism for the Jets in 2020 it’s not taking Wirfs to play RT and leaving Fant at LT.

[doitny]

15 minutes ago, derp said:

I get you’re kind of ranting here but the first two WR’s taken after the Jets took Becton have disappointed too and the best in the draft by a wide margin was the fourth taken. Chase is a monster but is the only WR at the top of the league right now who was taken in the top half of the first round. It’s probably easier to make a case for taking WR early being a mistake than it is for OL.

If there’s any easy criticism for the Jets in 2020 it’s not taking Wirfs to play RT and leaving Fant at LT.

well you dont know who we would have taken out of those 4 WRs.

and look how much better off Cincy is for taken Chase over Penai who everyone said they had to cause Burrow was getting killed the year before.

and Feeney played well today. a backup. that kills this whole Linderbaum talk. we dont need to use another 1st rd on the OL. 

i dont believe JD will continue to trade back and get us more #1 picks for next year. he needs to stay where he is and get some elite players. so next year where back to have one 1st rd pick just like everyone else. and were still going to have holes alot bigger than Center.

[derp]

2 hours ago, doitny said:

well you dont know who we would have taken out of those 4 WRs.

and look how much better off Cincy is for taken Chase over Penai who everyone said they had to cause Burrow was getting killed the year before.

and Feeney played well today. a backup. that kills this whole Linderbaum talk. we dont need to use another 1st rd on the OL. 

i dont believe JD will continue to trade back and get us more #1 picks for next year. he needs to stay where he is and get some elite players. so next year where back to have one 1st rd pick just like everyone else. and were still going to have holes alot bigger than Center.

Well I mean, they didn’t take any of the WR’s. But that they need to go to 3/4 taken is maybe a signal that WR isn’t a layup. Chase is the exception, not the rule, and wants available in that class.

The rest has nothing to do with what I was poking at. Except I will say there are no clear cut elite players in this class so staying put doesn’t do anything. And “were” and “where” should be “we’re”.

[HawkeyeJet]

Well 2022 might be too early overall.  There are some legitimate rumblings inside the program the last day or 2 that it is far from a certainty that Linderbaum is leaving early and may even be leaning ever so slightly at going back to school.

[section314]

1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Well 2022 might be too early overall.  There are some legitimate rumblings inside the program the last day or 2 that it is far from a certainty that Linderbaum is leaving early and may even be leaning ever so slightly at going back to school.

Wow. Do they have a great class coming in/ton of guys coming back?

[IntoTheGreen]

1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Well 2022 might be too early overall.  There are some legitimate rumblings inside the program the last day or 2 that it is far from a certainty that Linderbaum is leaving early and may even be leaning ever so slightly at going back to school.

I was surprised he stayed last year...staying again would be crazy from a value standpoint. Hes got more to lose than gain. But at the end of the day if college is that important to him, kudos. 

[HawkeyeJet]

1 hour ago, section314 said:

Wow. Do they have a great class coming in/ton of guys coming back?

They do have quite a bit coming back and for Iowa a very good recruiting class.  That’s all relative though.  I’d be shocked if they were a playoff contender.  Maybe play in the Big Ten Title game again but their QB situation is putrid.

[sec101row23]

1 minute ago, HawkeyeJet said:

They do have quite a bit coming back and for Iowa a very good recruiting class.  That’s all relative though.  I’d be shocked if they were a playoff contender.  Maybe play in the Big Ten Title game again but their QB situation is putrid.

You guys just signed your highest rated QB recruit in a very long time.   Carson May looks like a good fit in Iowa.  Big kid with a big arm.  

[derp]

2 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Well 2022 might be too early overall.  There are some legitimate rumblings inside the program the last day or 2 that it is far from a certainty that Linderbaum is leaving early and may even be leaning ever so slightly at going back to school.

Seems reasonable. Iowa guys definitely do stick around sometimes when they could go pro - as obviously you know. Would certainly be fun for you I'm sure and I wouldn't mind having that debate off the table this draft cycle.

Added bonus, think there's a better chance the Jets take him next year (after McGovern expires and hopefully they're not picking in the top ten) than this year. Win-win-win.

[HawkeyeJet]

3 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

You guys just signed your highest rated QB recruit in a very long time.   Carson May looks like a good fit in Iowa.  Big kid with a big arm.  

May is interesting for sure.  Huge arm.  Smaller school though will see about the transition.  

There is a Freshman turning heads on campus right now.  Joey Labas.  Wasn’t highly recruited but apparently he’s quite the play maker.  Much more mobile than an recent QBs on the roster.  A bit untamed for Ferentz liking apparently.
 

 

[Paradis]

12 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Well 2022 might be too early overall.  There are some legitimate rumblings inside the program the last day or 2 that it is far from a certainty that Linderbaum is leaving early and may even be leaning ever so slightly at going back to school.

This is disappointing... I sort just auto-slotted him to us in a trade back. I really want him in green and white. I don't care about the cost in draft capital. No one gives af 2-3 years later where these kids are selected. 

[HawkeyeJet]

He just declared.  Apparently it was very close and the word is he wanted to stay at one point but the coaches basically talked him out of it.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

F it. I was against drafting Linderbaum, only because I thought McGovern is fine in that spot and no need to waste a draft pick. But F IT. You have a chance to draft a young dominant player at one of the most important positions on the OL and be good there for the next decade, you f'n do it.

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

He just declared.  Apparently it was very close and the word is he wanted to stay at one point but the coaches basically talked him out of it.

Game on. 

This man will be a New York Jet. I can feel it in my bones. 

[HawkeyeJet]

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Game on. 

This man will be a New York Jet. I can feel it in my bones. 

I think so too.  I think 10 is the spot.  Outside of just being a very good player at a spot we could use, he seems to be exactly what JD and Saleh want in terms of personality Etc

[Lith]

2 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

He just declared.  Apparently it was very close and the word is he wanted to stay at one point but the coaches basically talked him out of it.

Wonder if the injury in the Bowl game, even though not serious, was the deciding factor.  Realizing what it could have cost him may have topped the scales in favor of leaving.

Next stop, Florham Park?

[Barry McCockinner]

12 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I think so too.  I think 10 is the spot.  Outside of just being a very good player at a spot we could use, he seems to be exactly what JD and Saleh want in terms of personality Etc

10 seems high but I do love the player. Wouldn't hate it, especially if we got Jerome Ford later on. They would pair very well together in this offense IMO.

[Rhg1084]

i wouldn’t draft him with a high pick but this is pretty cool

[HawkeyeJet]

41 minutes ago, Lith said:

Wonder if the injury in the Bowl game, even though not serious, was the deciding factor.  Realizing what it could have cost him may have topped the scales in favor of leaving.

Next stop, Florham Park?

Hard to imagine that not being a big part of it.  Once that shield of invincibility gets knocked a bit, I’m sure it’s sobering.

I have to admit, while I would love him in Green, I think I’m blinded a bit by how much I like him personally and the Iowa connection obviously.  If he was the same guy with the same tape but played for Ole Miss, I probably would say 10 is too high for a center. 
 

On the flip side, we just need an overall influx of good talent so maybe traditional value should be secondary.  If the guy is an 6 time pro bowl center is that worth pick 10?  I’d say probably, but that’s a high mark to hit.

[IntoTheGreen]

1 minute ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Hard to imagine that not being a big part of it.  Once that shield of invincibility gets knocked a bit, I’m sure it’s sobering.

I have to admit, while I would love him in Green, I think I’m blinded a bit by how much I like him personally and the Iowa connection obviously.  If he was the same guy with the same tape but played for Ole Miss, I probably would say 10 is too high for a center. 

If this is as weak a class as people say (especially at the top) sometimes it's better to go with the safest pick even if it's not positionally great. A few years from now it's better to have a solid to elite player at a non premium position than someone who is a bust. 

[Lith]

34 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Hard to imagine that not being a big part of it.  Once that shield of invincibility gets knocked a bit, I’m sure it’s sobering.

I have to admit, while I would love him in Green, I think I’m blinded a bit by how much I like him personally and the Iowa connection obviously.  If he was the same guy with the same tape but played for Ole Miss, I probably would say 10 is too high for a center. 
 

On the flip side, we just need an overall influx of good talent so maybe traditional value should be secondary.  If the guy is an 6 time pro bowl center is that worth pick 10?  I’d say probably, but that’s a high mark to hit.

I think part of it is the unique nature of this draft class that may have him become the highest drafted C ever.  QB and WR classes are relatively weak -- last year 7 of top 10 picks were QB/WR, including Kyle Pitts..  If I thought there were Chase/Smith/Pitts type prospects in this draft, I would not be thinking about Linderbaum at 10.  And while the edge class is deep, I am not sure it is deep with guys who would have been considered top 10 guys in past drafts. 

So I think we may see some guys at non-traditional positions drafted higher than you normally expect.  Hamilton, Linderbaum, Lloyd, Dean.  Although I am slowly coming around to thinking that LB is rapidly becoming a premium position -- just look at the impact of guys like Darius Leonard, Micah Parsons, Bobby Wagner, DeMario Davis.  I would love a guy like that (Lloyd/Dean) in the middle of our defense.

[derp]

1 hour ago, IntoTheGreen said:

If this is as weak a class as people say (especially at the top) sometimes it's better to go with the safest pick even if it's not positionally great. A few years from now it's better to have a solid to elite player at a non premium position than someone who is a bust. 

This logic checks out and is also how two massive busts at guard got drafted in the top ten in 2013 (I say as someone who really likes Linderbaum and agrees with your post on the surface - struggle between these two ideas).

32 minutes ago, Lith said:

I think part of it is the unique nature of this draft class that may have him become the highest drafted C ever.  QB and WR classes are relatively weak -- last year 7 of top 10 picks were QB/WR, including Kyle Pitts..  If I thought there were Chase/Smith/Pitts type prospects in this draft, I would not be thinking about Linderbaum at 10.  And while the edge class is deep, I am not sure it is deep with guys who would have been considered top 10 guys in past drafts. 

So I think we may see some guys at non-traditional positions drafted higher than you normally expect.  Hamilton, Linderbaum, Lloyd, Dean.  Although I am slowly coming around to thinking that LB is rapidly becoming a premium position -- just look at the impact of guys like Darius Leonard, Micah Parsons, Bobby Wagner, DeMario Davis.  I would love a guy like that (Lloyd/Dean) in the middle of our defense.

You can say this about nearly every position but it’s wild how many of those elite guys are drafted day two - everyone but Parsons. I took a recent look back at first round off ball LB’s and - Parsons aside - it’s ugly. It’s wild how bad NFL teams are at drafting.

[Bruce Harper]

I think so too.  I think 10 is the spot.  Outside of just being a very good player at a spot we could use, he seems to be exactly what JD and Saleh want in terms of personality Etc

I’m afraid the Giants will take him.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Paradis]

On 1/14/2022 at 10:07 AM, HawkeyeJet said:

Hard to imagine that not being a big part of it.  Once that shield of invincibility gets knocked a bit, I’m sure it’s sobering.

I have to admit, while I would love him in Green, I think I’m blinded a bit by how much I like him personally and the Iowa connection obviously.  If he was the same guy with the same tape but played for Ole Miss, I probably would say 10 is too high for a center. 
 

On the flip side, we just need an overall influx of good talent so maybe traditional value should be secondary.  If the guy is an 6 time pro bowl center is that worth pick 10?  I’d say probably, but that’s a high mark to hit.

Aside from the fact that there's very little in terms of premier talent to challenge the linderbaum pick at 10 (for example) -- I think we need to look at the alternatives as well... There's a lot of high risk players with whom we're basically evaluating their floors -- not their ceilings. If your avg top 10 picks got grades 88%-95%, the avg of this class is more like 75-83%... In other words, lots of these names would be going in the 20s in any other year.

If you took lets say a pass rusher or even WR at 10, if there were anything less than a stalward year in and year out -- we'd be looking back at this and saying - Fck we got cute when we shoulda just took Linderbaum."....No will care in 2-3 years that we took at 10, vs 20 or 25

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Aside from the fact that there's very little in terms of premier talent to challenge the linderbaum pick at 10 (for example) -- I think we need to look at the alternatives as well... There's a lot of high risk players with whom we're basically evaluating their floors -- not their ceilings. If your avg top 10 picks got grades 88%-95%, the avg of this class is more like 75-83%... In other words, lots of these names would be going in the 20s in any other year.

If you took lets say a pass rusher or even WR at 10, if there were anything less than a stalward year in and year out -- we'd be looking back at this and saying - Fck we got cute when we shoulda just took Linderbaum."....No will care in 2-3 years that we took at 10, vs 20 or 25

You could apply the same logic to taking Hamilton IMO.  Not saying i support or oppose it, but if you remove positional value, we probably could use a dominant Safety as much or more as a dominant Center, considering we already have a pretty decent Center and a big pile of Band-Aids at Safety.

[Paradis]

17 minutes ago, nycdan said:

You could apply the same logic to taking Hamilton IMO.  Not saying i support or oppose it, but if you remove positional value, we probably could use a dominant Safety as much or more as a dominant Center, considering we already have a pretty decent Center and a big pile of Band-Aids at Safety.

Yes, Hamilton is one of 4-5 players even flirting with the "blue chip" label and wouldn't surprise me if he is in play at 4... well, he is in play, though i think a PR slides to us or we trade back. I doubt Hamilton is there at 10. He's the top DB.