Team Building and Speculation Thread

[Chrebetfan80]

23 minutes ago, derp said:

I absolutely get thinking that a LB makes the biggest impact I’ll just believe it when I see it. Is an easy one to draft an impact guy. I’m looking at what the 49ers have done and bracing myself for Travon Walker with the Seattle pick.

I dont know man, just depends on the trade down.. If we cant get a good deal then youre looking at guys that are there and saying "i prob dont want to take this guy but he's BPA and i cant move down". Thats where i could see a CB or a Hamilton taken or even a Neal because we cant get out of the spot so you take the best player you can.  

I think it makes more and more sense to at minimum draft 1 WR in the first as there should be 5 worthy of the choice in the 10-20 range (Wilson, Burks, London, Williams, Olave all prob go in this range maybe a little later). 

Dotson is the other guy that has a chance to creep into that top teir for me, other than that its all second round guys.  I like Bell alot and tolbert but they are second rounders at best then its just a bunch of guys I like but wont get me super excited (Except if metchie falls far).  Theres some interesting players late like a Wan'Dale Robinson, a Doubs a Drummond, but unless they spend on a premiere WR in FA you absolutely have to grab one of those first tier guys this draft I think

[derp]

20 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I dont know man, just depends on the trade down.. If we cant get a good deal then youre looking at guys that are there and saying "i prob dont want to take this guy but he's BPA and i cant move down". Thats where i could see a CB or a Hamilton taken or even a Neal because we cant get out of the spot so you take the best player you can.  

I think it makes more and more sense to at minimum draft 1 WR in the first as there should be 5 worthy of the choice in the 10-20 range (Wilson, Burks, London, Williams, Olave all prob go in this range maybe a little later). 

Dotson is the other guy that has a chance to creep into that top teir for me, other than that its all second round guys.  I like Bell alot and tolbert but they are second rounders at best then its just a bunch of guys I like but wont get me super excited (Except if metchie falls far).  Theres some interesting players late like a Wan'Dale Robinson, a Doubs a Drummond, but unless they spend on a premiere WR in FA you absolutely have to grab one of those first tier guys this draft I think

I mean I want them to draft a WR so you won’t get any arguments from me and I think need-value should mesh with the Seattle pick like you said. Do think there are some FA’s and he’s done it in the second the last few drafts so it’s possible he waits but I’d like a first round receiver.

I was actually talking about LB in the post you quoted so maybe a misread?

[Chrebetfan80]

4 minutes ago, derp said:

I mean I want them to draft a WR so you won’t get any arguments from me and I think need-value should mesh with the Seattle pick like you said. Do think there are some FA’s and he’s done it in the second the last few drafts so it’s possible he waits but I’d like a first round receiver.

I was actually talking about LB in the post you quoted so maybe a misread?

Yea I saw i just got swept up in the WR discussion lol I think thats the one position you almost HAVE to go in rd 1 this year because of the talent drop off.  

LB i think is pretty deep regarldess of the drop off between Lloyd/Dean and the rest.  I think they make the biggest impact to this defense day 1 but like you said I dont really see them pulling the trigger because i do think they'll sit there and say 1. there are really good quality players later in this draft, and 2. they ereally like quincy so i think that ends up taking the LB out of the conversation in rd 1.  

[derp]

36 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Yea I saw i just got swept up in the WR discussion lol I think thats the one position you almost HAVE to go in rd 1 this year because of the talent drop off.  

LB i think is pretty deep regarldess of the drop off between Lloyd/Dean and the rest.  I think they make the biggest impact to this defense day 1 but like you said I dont really see them pulling the trigger because i do think they'll sit there and say 1. there are really good quality players later in this draft, and 2. they ereally like quincy so i think that ends up taking the LB out of the conversation in rd 1.  

Yeah I think there’s Williams, Mosley isn’t going anywhere (yet), and they run a lot of nickel. In retrospect as ugly as it’s been the Sherwood-Nasirildeen logic had to partially be these guys aren’t going to play much early, it’ll be Mosley-Davis, so either we’ll have cheap replacements in house or back fill later if those guys are just special teamers. San Francisco really didn’t invest much in linebackers either - think they start third round pick, sixth round pick, UDFA. So I absolutely get the first round LB logic I’m just not sure if it meshed with any building philosophy. Lloyd I think came into college as a safety so I’m sure the skill set meshes plus Dean is fun and linebackers can definitely make a day one impact. That’s the position I think gets little attention this offseason and annoys fans.

[kdels62]

The only thing I know for sure is that we’re not taking a CB.

[Chrebetfan80]

15 hours ago, derp said:

Yeah I think there’s Williams, Mosley isn’t going anywhere (yet), and they run a lot of nickel. In retrospect as ugly as it’s been the Sherwood-Nasirildeen logic had to partially be these guys aren’t going to play much early, it’ll be Mosley-Davis, so either we’ll have cheap replacements in house or back fill later if those guys are just special teamers. San Francisco really didn’t invest much in linebackers either - think they start third round pick, sixth round pick, UDFA. So I absolutely get the first round LB logic I’m just not sure if it meshed with any building philosophy. Lloyd I think came into college as a safety so I’m sure the skill set meshes plus Dean is fun and linebackers can definitely make a day one impact. That’s the position I think gets little attention this offseason and annoys fans.

i unfortunately think youre right.  I could see us not going that route even though I think it would make a huge difference for this team moving forward.    That really just leaves WR as the only position i feel we MUST draft in rd 1 this year. Everything else has depth or can be addressed in rd 2. 

[SR24]

On 12/20/2021 at 2:35 PM, Chrebetfan80 said:

I dont know man, just depends on the trade down.. If we cant get a good deal then youre looking at guys that are there and saying "i prob dont want to take this guy but he's BPA and i cant move down". Thats where i could see a CB or a Hamilton taken or even a Neal because we cant get out of the spot so you take the best player you can.  

 

The mock draft simulator gets really interesting at #4 when you don't have a trade offer. If we end up at #4 with no trade option I think he'd take Neal assuming he's there

[BurntDice]

Not really player team building as much as coaching team building, but if the hawks blow it up I’d take a serious look at Shane Waldron as passing game coordinator. His play designs with the hawks has been pretty well done. He was mccvays understudy for 4 years and he comes from the same coaching tree as lafleurs, Shannahan, Mcvay etc. has more experience than lafleur and will probably help him a lot. 

[kdels62]

So is Fant gonna get extended? He’s reasonable priced for 1 more season but he’s definitely an NFL starter at this point and that’s worth some coin. For all the draft talk about taking Neal, keeping Fant to maintain continuity for the next few seasons might be more important.

I’d tack on another 3 years to his current deal with like $36 million in new money. That’s a good chunk of coin but by that last year he’ll be considered inexpensive again. 

[Chrebetfan80]

1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

So is Fant gonna get extended? He’s reasonable priced for 1 more season but he’s definitely an NFL starter at this point and that’s worth some coin. For all the draft talk about taking Neal, keeping Fant to maintain continuity for the next few seasons might be more important.

I’d tack on another 3 years to his current deal with like $36 million in new money. That’s a good chunk of coin but by that last year he’ll be considered inexpensive again. 

I think i posted about this in another thread on the main board.  He's going to be 30 so extending him until he's 33 makes a lot of sense, he at minimum gives you a solid RT going forward (although not a ++ run blocker from a RT spot) and a top 15 LT probably.  Which also begs the question of moving becton over to RT.  

Either way I think you hit the number on the head I forget what I figured it out as but I believe i said like 34 million overall.  I believe it was a 3 year extension with the 3rd year being a team option or a year where you could cut bait a year early if needed.  something like 15-16 mil per year. 

[BurntDice]

3 hours ago, kdels62 said:

So is Fant gonna get extended? He’s reasonable priced for 1 more season but he’s definitely an NFL starter at this point and that’s worth some coin. For all the draft talk about taking Neal, keeping Fant to maintain continuity for the next few seasons might be more important.

I’d tack on another 3 years to his current deal with like $36 million in new money. That’s a good chunk of coin but by that last year he’ll be considered inexpensive again. 

I’m hoping he does. He doesn’t have a lot of playing time so his body isn’t as worn down and it’s really starting to click for him. Something is going on with becton behind the scenes so locking up fant adds a lot more security to the T position. 

[derp]

3 hours ago, kdels62 said:

So is Fant gonna get extended? He’s reasonable priced for 1 more season but he’s definitely an NFL starter at this point and that’s worth some coin. For all the draft talk about taking Neal, keeping Fant to maintain continuity for the next few seasons might be more important.

I’d tack on another 3 years to his current deal with like $36 million in new money. That’s a good chunk of coin but by that last year he’ll be considered inexpensive again. 

Posted in the same thread as chrebetfan. I think it’d make sense and be nice to knock tackle off the needs list a bit for a year. Three main potential issues I see.

One is compensation. I think 3/$36 makes sense for the Jets and feels fair. After a great year at left tackle - getting no help from his QB - does Fant think he could get a lot more on the open market? I would.

Another related one is position. Does Fant play LT or RT? If it’s LT - how do things go with Becton moving to the right side - and again the compensation issue - I’d think he’d want more to play on the left side. And if it’s RT - I feel like Fant has talked about playing on the two sides being different. How much of his jump is due to playing on the left side of you’re going to pay him to play on the right? And does he want the opportunity to play on the left side somewhere else?

Finally, I think it makes sense in this scenario but I’ve thought it made sense in others - Douglas has been extremely cap careful. Is he going to give Fant the kinds of guarantees he wants as he gets older? Guys with significant contracts and guaranteed money are ones who expire before they hit 30 so they’re incentivized to play out the deal. It’s maybe different on OL and Fant is an in house guy - but I’ve came up with reasons it makes sense before and it hasn’t happened.

[Chrebetfan80]

1 hour ago, derp said:

Posted in the same thread as chrebetfan. I think it’d make sense and be nice to knock tackle off the needs list a bit for a year. Three main potential issues I see.

One is compensation. I think 3/$36 makes sense for the Jets and feels fair. After a great year at left tackle - getting no help from his QB - does Fant think he could get a lot more on the open market? I would.

Another related one is position. Does Fant play LT or RT? If it’s LT - how do things go with Becton moving to the right side - and again the compensation issue - I’d think he’d want more to play on the left side. And if it’s RT - I feel like Fant has talked about playing on the two sides being different. How much of his jump is due to playing on the left side of you’re going to pay him to play on the right? And does he want the opportunity to play on the left side somewhere else?

Finally, I think it makes sense in this scenario but I’ve thought it made sense in others - Douglas has been extremely cap careful. Is he going to give Fant the kinds of guarantees he wants as he gets older? Guys with significant contracts and guaranteed money are ones who expire before they hit 30 so they’re incentivized to play out the deal. It’s maybe different on OL and Fant is an in house guy - but I’ve came up with reasons it makes sense before and it hasn’t happened.

I think the reason 3-36 is fair is because it is based on average Tackle salaries in general.  I do think he is worth more on the open market but this is a team that has given him the chance to grow and he has played his best ball of his career here.   For instance For left Tackles the range from 1-15 in terms of contract rankings goes from 23m (Williams) -12.2m (Smith) if you give Fant an average at around 15-16m annually he will rank top 10 in the LT market in 2022 which i think is more than fair.   To get into the top 5 that has to push into the 17-18m range but considering not knowing where he will play top 15 money for a tackle is good. 15-16m also ranks him just outside the top 5 for RT as well.  As it stands right now Fant is the 10th highest paid RT in football.  Depending on how its structured you could get him within the top 10 in Tackle salary overall in 2022 for optics and then less in subsequent years, front loading this deal makes sense to me.  It will probably take over 36, but i would be hesitant to go over 40 with only one year of elite production.  

only reason I could see JD changing up procedures this way is 1. the cap is going to take a jump this offseason and then projected another massive jump in another year (some people saying 280-300m).  2. OL has shown to be effective well into their 30s so at only 30 next year and seemingly ascending as a player, it makes sense to retain his services on a short term extension that can be front loaded when no expensive deals are coming for this team the next few years. 

 

 

 

 

[derp]

3 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I think the reason 3-36 is fair is because it is based on average Tackle salaries in general.  I do think he is worth more on the open market but this is a team that has given him the chance to grow and he has played his best ball of his career here.   For instance For left Tackles the range from 1-15 in terms of contract rankings goes from 23m (Williams) -12.2m (Smith) if you give Fant an average at around 15-16m annually he will rank top 10 in the LT market in 2022 which i think is more than fair.   To get into the top 5 that has to push into the 17-18m range but considering not knowing where he will play top 15 money for a tackle is good. 15-16m also ranks him just outside the top 5 for RT as well.  As it stands right now Fant is the 10th highest paid RT in football.  Depending on how its structured you could get him within the top 10 in Tackle salary overall in 2022 for optics and then less in subsequent years, front loading this deal makes sense to me.  It will probably take over 36, but i would be hesitant to go over 40 with only one year of elite production.  

only reason I could see JD changing up procedures this way is 1. the cap is going to take a jump this offseason and then projected another massive jump in another year (some people saying 280-300m).  2. OL has shown to be effective well into their 30s so at only 30 next year and seemingly ascending as a player, it makes sense to retain his services on a short term extension that can be front loaded when no expensive deals are coming for this team the next few years. 

Totally agree with the second paragraph. Regarding the first, also very fair and well researched. The bold is just where it depends how Fant wants to do things. Would be cool if he wants to come back but if he wants to get paid the open market is smarter. Depends on his priorities.

[UntouchableCrew]

Great discussion from smart posters in this thread. 

Draft Forum >>> Main Forum.

[Lith]

15 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Great discussion from smart posters in this thread. 

Draft Forum >>> Main Forum.

Agreed.  A lot easier on the mods too.  Had I thought about it, when Max asked, I should have told him I would be the Draft Forum mod.

[BCJet]

On 12/21/2021 at 9:02 PM, SR24 said:

The mock draft simulator gets really interesting at #4 when you don't have a trade offer. If we end up at #4 with no trade option I think he'd take Neal assuming he's there

I just dont see how we can spend $10 million on fant (either on the last year of his deal or in an extension), draft/pay Becton and then use another top 5 pick on an OT - and one who has similar risk factors to Becton at 350lbs.

I also think that with Fant solidifying LT, its easier for JD to find RTs in free agency.  

The team desperately needs speed on defense, at safety and LB.  On offense we need a TE and some developmental IOL.

If JD was actually able to trade back from the 7-9 pick to pick up a 2nd and something in 2023 and still get Devin Lloyd we could be looking at a group like this which would really help the team:

4. Hamilton

1st: Devin Lloyd

2nd: Edge (jermaine johnson/drake jackson)

2nd: IOL Zion Johnson (elite guard prospect with experience at OT)

2nd: TE Jeremy Ruckert or Trey McBride

That group, along with some FA signings/re-signings (Ronald Jones RB, Morgan Moses, Maye) could really improve the team IF we get improvement from Becton, Zach, AVT, etc.  and participation from Carl Lawson

[derp]

Thinking they stick and pick at 4. Very curious to see what happens in free agency but if they bring a guard in then I'm thinking they hope an OL or Hamilton goes ahead of them and plan on choosing between Hutchinson, Sauce, and Walker.

Giants are a pretty good option for teams to get ahead of - clear OL needs if Ekwonu or Neal is there and a possible QB need. I think there's enough talent that'll be available at 4 that the Jets would ask for a lot to move down. 

Getting way out there, Carolina has like no picks. Would be cool if Jets could pull what Miami did last year with say Washington and Carolina - move off 4 for a boatload of picks (say to Washington), give Carolina some picks to move back up, and still get one of their top guys.

Think they move down from ten. It's been traded three of the last four years and there are just so many prospects day two who'd fit. Good spot to get ahead of some teams and I imagine someone will fall. No clue who they'd target in a trade down.

Also think we will be disappointed by the second round picks. Kind of seems like the need/value/type matchup there is going to be more of a position folks don't value much.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

For those into the Waldo formula numbers, there are some interesting observations. Still missing a lot of the agility drills, so need pro days for that, but of the ones who did some tests:

 

Low Risk 1: Twitch score 1.1 or lower:

Example: name (exp power, twitch)  

Aidan Hutchinson (0.93, 0.93)

Travon Walker (1.01, 1.1)

 

Low Risk 2: Explosive power 1.05 or higher

Josh Paschal (1.06, n/a)

 

Mid-Low Risk: (Twitch < 1.1, but 3 cone > 7 seconds)

Nik Bonitto (0.97, 1.04)

 

High Risk:  Twitch > 1.2

David Ojabo (0.93, 1.21)

Amare Barno (0.97, 1.31)

Jeremiah Moon (1.03, 1.29)

 

 

 

[derp]

6 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

For those into the Waldo formula numbers, there are some interesting observations. Still missing a lot of the agility drills, so need pro days for that, but of the ones who did some tests:

 

Low Risk 1: Twitch score 1.1 or lower:

Example: name (exp power, twitch)  

Aidan Hutchinson (0.93, 0.93)

Travon Walker (1.01, 1.1)

 

Low Risk 2: Explosive power 1.05 or higher

Josh Paschal (1.06, n/a)

 

Mid-Low Risk: (Twitch < 1.1, but 3 cone > 7 seconds)

Nik Bonitto (0.97, 1.04)

 

High Risk:  Twitch > 1.2

David Ojabo (0.93, 1.21)

Amare Barno (0.97, 1.31)

Jeremiah Moon (1.03, 1.29)

 

 

 

Not *ideal* size at 248 but Bonitto tested well at that size and had really good win rates. If they take Walker early he’d be an interesting designated rusher type to take later. Did well rushing the quarterback with not so many opportunities if I remember right. I think conceptually this defense wants the third down type edge and to kick one of the edges inside on passing downs

[kdels62]

So the hype behind Hutchinson and Thibodeaux at 1 and 2 in some order is growing. Assuming those 2 plus Ikem Ekwonu go before our pick who do we draft?

My thoughts would be Sauce Gardner or Travon Walker. There’s also the possibility someone wants to move up to take Evan Neal. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

So the hype behind Hutchinson and Thibodeaux at 1 and 2 in some order is growing. Assuming those 2 plus Ikem Ekwonu go before our pick who do we draft?

My thoughts would be Sauce Gardner or Travon Walker. There’s also the possibility someone wants to move up to take Evan Neal. 

I think it probably goes Walker then Sauce in that order, which I'd be happy with both. Don't see anyone else that I feel good about staying and picking at 4.

[kdels62]

So as the hype of a Gardner/ London combo ramps up I’m left wondering, “Where does the edge support come in?”

The possibility of a trade for Danielle Hunter exists. However, in the draft where is the next best place for JD to find pass rush talent? 

Since I believe 1 of 35 or 38 is going to be Perrion Winfrey or Travis Jones which player might be available there that helps the edge?

Are Ebeketie, Mafe, Cam Thomas, Logan Hall, or injured Ojabo worth drafting over Raimann, Pitre, Cine, Likely, McBride, Dax Hill, Muma, and possible Zion Johnson?

Is it possible that JD feels like the team doesn’t need a starter at Edge with Lawson coming back? Is a rotation of Lawson/ JFM/ Huff/ Martin/ Developmental rookie (Dominique Robinson) enough juice?

[chirorob]

On 12/22/2021 at 4:57 AM, kdels62 said:

So is Fant gonna get extended? He’s reasonable priced for 1 more season but he’s definitely an NFL starter at this point and that’s worth some coin. For all the draft talk about taking Neal, keeping Fant to maintain continuity for the next few seasons might be more important.

I’d tack on another 3 years to his current deal with like $36 million in new money. That’s a good chunk of coin but by that last year he’ll be considered inexpensive again. 

I think it depends on how the draft falls.   If JD is in a spot where BPA is a tackle, maybe he does that to see what happens with Fant and Becton.

I also don't think that contract is going to be enough for Fant, probably more like 3-45/48