Zach’s “breakout” game

[Rhg1084]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Name them.  

Peyton , Eli, Brees, Stafford, Luck, Josh Allen, Rodgers, Rivers, Mcnabb, Mike Vick, Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kirk Cousins, Flacco, Tannhill, Alex Smith … just to name a few. I’m sure I can keep going. All these guys struggled their rookie year (or didn’t even play their rookie year) and went on to have great careers 

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

So a small sample size of 15 years of highly drafted rookie QBs cut down much smaller to an even smaller sample of those who became superstars?

That seems like an interesting exercise that might yield to valuable ideas but that also runs a high risk of leading to faulty conclusions.  

There is simply not enough data with all the variables.  NE and SF have WAY better situation than the others first round rookies, right?   so that needs to be worked in.  Is there a running game or not?  How is the teams defense, which will lead to opportunities.  

You can’t put too much weight from that data, whatever it is. 

Plenty of first round QBs in that timeframe have busted. If you can't think of any, that's:

0 divided by a lot. 

I'm a few decades removed from any sort of math class but I know that's kind of like, not good, for your argument  

[Rhg1084]

52 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  People love to sh*t on Andrew Luck, but he began his career with a 23 TD / 18 INT season, with 4,374 yards, and led his team to an 11-5 record.  He followed that up with 2 more 11-5 seasons, one of which he threw for 40 TDs.  

Luck had a 54% completion percentage and 10 fumbles his rookie year, Jets fans would’ve run him out of the building lmao

[jgb]

Just now, Rhg1084 said:

Luck had a 54% completion percentage and 10 fumbles his rookie year, Jets fans would’ve run him out of the building lmao

Hey, the only people Jets fans have shown any sort of success in running out of the building are GMs. And that was once.

[Hal N of Provo]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

JaMarcus Russell can throw it 70 yards from his knees; expecting big things!

Also, I'm old enough to remember the knock on Manning being that his arm strength might top out at 60 yards (as opposed to the clearly better prospect in Ryan Leaf)

Chad Kelly is on video throwing it 76 yards. Feleipe Franks threw it 76 yards in competition. Cardale Jones is on film winning a similar competition at 74 yards. And let's not forget Joe Milton who can get 80+.

And not sure how far he can throw it, but Paxton Lynch blew all the records away for measured speed so he probably has the biggest arm.

Take it from me, you'll be seeing all these guys (Russell, Kelly, Franks, Jones, Milton, Lynch) as the future of the position and tearing up the NFL any day now.

How does Aaron Rodgers look?  Cause that appears to match Zach’s throw the closest.  Similar body size.  
 

He had 3 years to learn before he played.  Tough to comp Zach as a rookie, but unless Zach falls in love with cough syrup and cheeseburgers, it’s more valid than Jamarcus Russell.

[HawkeyeJet]

58 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So there you have it, @Hal N of Provo, as demonstrated above.  Pulling only the names from QB's since 2005 (or a little before), we have as possible examples:

• Ryan Tannehill
• Josh Allen
• Eli Manning
• Alex Smith

We can discuss these further if you'd like.

 

Meanwhile, highly drafted busts since around 2005 who started out sucking and continued to suck:

• JaMarcus Russell (Pick 1.1, 2007)
• Marcus Mariota (Pick 1.2, 2015)
• Vince Young (Pick 1.3, 2006)
• Blake Bortles (Pick 1.3, 2014)
• Mark Sanchez (Pick 1.5, 2009)
• Jake Locker (Pick 1.8, 2011)
• Matt Leinart (Pick 1.10, 2006)
• Blaine Gabbert (Pick 1.10, 2011)
• Christian Ponder (Pick 1.12, 2011)
• EJ Manuel (Pick 1.16, 2013)
• Josh Freeman (Pick 1.17, 2009)
• J.P. Losman (Pick 1.22, 2004)
• Brady Quinn (Pick 1.22, 2007)
• Brandon Weeden (Pick 1.22, 2012)
• Johnny Manziel (Pick 1.22, 2014)
• Jason Campbell (Pick 1.25, 2005)
• Tim Tebow (Pick 1.25, 2010)
• Paxton Lynch (Pick 1.26, 2016)
• Teddy Bridgewater (Pick 1.32, 2014)
• Kevin Kolb (Pick 2.36, 2007)
• Geno Smith (Pick 2.39, 2013)
• John Beck (Pick 2.40, 2007)
• Pat White (Pick 2.44, 2009)
• Jimmy Clausen (Pick 2.48, 2010)
• Christian Hackenberg (Pick 2.51, 2016)
• DeShone Kizer (Pick 2.52, 2017)
• Brock Osweiler (Pick 2.57, 2012)

Plus Kyle Boller (drafted in 2003 but saw the Ty Law rule come into effect)

If you start including QBs that no one knew if they were playing good or bad their rookie year, then the conversation is a bit different. 
 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

If you start including QBs that no one knew if they were playing good or bad their rookie year, then the conversation is a bit different. 
 

Pretty sure their coaches saw them looking bad in practice.  

Unless of course you’re in the camp that still thinks Hackenberg wasn’t given a fair shot.  But I imagine you’re not. 

Also your take puts a bit of a damper on the idea that QBs sitting for a year helps them in the long run…

[FidelioJet]

5 minutes ago, jgb said:

JaMarcus Russell can throw it 70 yards from his knees; expecting big things!

Also, I'm old enough to remember the knock on Manning being that his arm strength might top out at 60 yards (as opposed to the clearly better prospect in Ryan Leaf)

Chad Kelly is on video throwing it 76 yards. Feleipe Franks threw it 76 yards in competition. Cardale Jones is on film winning a similar competition at 74 yards. And let's not forget Joe Milton who can get 80+.

And not sure how far he can throw it, but Paxton Lynch blew all the records away for measured speed so he probably has the biggest arm.

Take it from me, you'll be seeing all these guys (Russell, Kelly, Franks, Jones, Milton, Lynch) as the future of the position and tearing up the NFL any day now.

This is weakest argument you've made so far and that's saying something.

I believe you're a lawyer (as you've mentioned Law School) 

You should use some basic logic here..

The point, it seems, you're trying to make here is....

1) Zach has a strong arm 

2) Some other people with strong arms failed 

3) Therefor Zach must fail

Laugable really. 

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Hal N of Provo said:

How does Aaron Rodgers look?  Cause that appears to match Zach’s throw the closest.  Similar body size.  
 

He had 3 years to learn before he played.  Tough to comp Zach as a rookie, but unless Zach falls in love with cough syrup and cheeseburgers, it’s more valid than Jamarcus Russell.

Arm speed is great. It's sure better than not having it. But it's not a reason to get excited. This is what I mean: Zach has a cannon. We know this, and he was largely drafted because of it. Great. Good. That's awesome.

But now it's time to show what else he has because I'd sure as Hell prefer a Chad Pennington over a Jeff George. If Zach can meld the two, then we have magic. So the strong arm stuff, it just doesn't excite me. I know he has that. I'm convinced. I want to see him develop the tools he has not yet shown. Then I get excited.

[peekskill68]

7 minutes ago, ultraJETfan said:

Yeah dude. The Carolina game. The Titans game to name a couple. Did you just start watching in November or something?

C'mon bro.  Yes, those throws are NFL caliber throws.  He should make them.  Where's the "WTF did I just see" throws like you get from top tier QBs in the league with superior arm talent?  I'd argue Darnold had better throws (to Robby and Berrios in the Oakland and 49ers games, to name two) vs. anything we've seen so far from Wilson

[HawkeyeJet]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Pretty sure their coaches saw them looking bad in practice.  

And they gave up them?  I don’t follow.  

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is weakest argument you've made so far and that's saying something.

I believe you're a lawyer (as you've mentioned Law School) 

You should use some basic logic here..

The point, it seems, you're trying to make here is....

1) Zach has a strong arm 

2) Some other people with strong arms failed 

3) Therefor Zach must fail

Laugable really. 

It was a cut and paste from a parody post. I'm guilt of joke theft, not poor argument.

Read my post above for what you seek.

[Hal N of Provo]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Plenty of first round QBs in that timeframe have busted. If you can't think of any, that's:

0 divided by a lot. 

I'm a few decades removed from any sort of math class but I know that's kind of like, not good, for your argument  

30 makes Statics 111 Professors happy, but it’s kind of silly to draw conclusions from such a small group.

You don’t have 10 QBs in the same situation with the same skill set who have developed at the same rate.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

30 makes Statics 111 Professors happy, but it’s kind of silly to draw conclusions from such a small group.

You don’t have 10 QBs in the same situation with the same skill set who have developed at the same rate.

Well I can't expand the data set. It's what we have. You seem to think a flaw in the data set means it's better to draw conclusions based on hope. I'll take a conclusion based on limited data with a large margin for error over one made after throwing the only available data away.

[Hal N of Provo]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Arm speed is great. It's sure better than not having it. But it's not a reason to get excited. This is what I mean: Zach has a cannon. We know this, and he was largely drafted because of it. Great. Good. That's awesome.

But now it's time to show what else he has because I'd sure as Hell prefer a Chad Pennington over a Jeff George. If Zach can meld the two, then we have magic. So the strong arm stuff, it just doesn't excite me. I know he has that. I'm convinced. I want to see him develop the tools he has not yet shown. Then I get excited.

So what does he need to do that?  Time?  Maybe 2-3 years? 
 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN OF THE JURY, I  REST MY CASE! 
 

 

 

 

 

 

(lol.  Saw you went to law school at Michigan.  I watched a couple episodes of Perry Masons and LA Law as a kid.)

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

So what does he need to do that?  Time?  Maybe 2-3 years? 
 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN OF THE JURY, I  REST MY CASE! 
 

 

 

 

 

 

(lol.  Saw you went to law school at Michigan.  I watched a couple episodes of Perry Masons and LA Law as a kid.)

Find a post saying I think Zach shouldn't start every single snap this year and next, as much as possible. Otherwise, I'm asking the judge for a directed verdict and attorney's fees.

Yes, Michigan. Great place. For a fun weekend, drive West 3 hours to Chicago instead of 30 minutes East to Detroit.

[ultraJETfan]

50 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

lol.   I know it sounds ridiculous but it’s part of the Zach fan boy disillusion with dropped balls.  

Gunnar Romney (sp?) has had a hard time staying healthy but before that I thought he’d be a great UDFA.  Those guys at BYU were not athletic like Moore but they could body up a DB and come down with the ball and make it look easy and expected. 

I watched Mims stuff before the season and I thought he’d be the NFL version of that.  

I hope they draft a WR like what we all hoped Mims would be. The right WR makes a 50/50 ball a 80/20 ball if the QB is working it right - with no picks.

Anyway, I know it sounds crazy but I really believe it lol.  

I agree with this here. Everyone acts like we have the Rams Greatest Show on Turf offense. 90% of our receivers are mediocre at best. Moore has shown great promise but lets be honest here, he's Welker or Edelman with extra speed, he's not a #1. The TEs are absolute bums. I can't remember any game this season where Zach had more than 3 seconds to stand in the pocket. I watched RZ and saw Jimmy G, Lamar, and sheeeit even Minshew had enough time to stand like a statue and go through 1st, 2nd, and 3rd read.  Jets are also the 3rd worst rushing team in the NFL. Jets are LAST in defense.

The kid NEVER gets a turnover, never gets a short field, never gets a 3 and out from the D to give them a momentum boost. WRs and backs drop the ball EVERY game. So what if the ball was thrown at the backs helmet? It's not like he had to jump 5 feet in the air. Maybe if we had players that were over 6' tall we wouldn't have this problem. Seriously, I've never seen so many midgets on one football team. Usually you see 1 player that is dwarfed by everyone else. On the Jets we have 5 or 6 players this size and they are all center pieces on the offense.  Give this kid some real football players before we send him back on the horse and carriage to Amish country. If he fails with some actual weapons then I'll pay for the cart myself. Until then, lets give him a fighting chance. 

[FidelioJet]

11 minutes ago, jgb said:

Arm speed is great. It's sure better than not having it. But it's not a reason to get excited. This is what I mean: Zach has a cannon. We know this, and he was largely drafted because of it. Great. Good. That's awesome.

But now it's time to show what else he has because I'd sure as Hell prefer a Chad Pennington over a Jeff George. If Zach can meld the two, then we have magic. So the strong arm stuff, it just doesn't excite me. I know he has that. I'm convinced. I want to see him develop the tools he has not yet shown. Then I get excited.

Agreed. And fair assessment.

Placement and accuracy is far more important than power (assuming the power is reasonable)

I have more faith in the kid than you, as I saw him do the things in college he's not doing now - but I also acknowledge he may never be able to play at the speed of the NFL.  

[rtnelson]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

But the Jets offense isn't terrible.  At least people could make that excuse for Darnold.  They can't for Wilson.  The offense has largely been OK.

Stop blaming others for a QB's problems.  It doesn't work.  It didn't even work for Darnold, so why would those excuses make sense for Wilson, who at least has some help around him?  

News flash:  Highly drafted QB's tend to get drafted by bad teams.  Yet not all of them fail.  Some of them do quite well out of the gates.  Like Herbert and Burrow just last season.

The offense was not the same at the start of the year.  Part of that was Zach of course, but a large part of the was the lines inability to pick up a simple stunt causing Zach to run for his life, or expect to every single play.

It's a team game.  Michael Carter, wasn't doing Michael Carter things, Moore wasn't doing Moore things.  The OL is playing much better than it was the first 4 games.  Almost everything about the offense is better than the first 4 games, and a lot of that stems from better OL play.

This isn't blaming others for his bad QB play, because it isn't defensible.  But to completely ignore the rookie OC calling plays for the first time, terrible OL that couldn't pick up a stunt, Moore being injured the entire preseason, and Michael Carter not really making plays yet saying that we were in any way the same offense that White Johnson and Flacco were dealing with is silly.

Zach was seeing ghosts.  sh*t, I was seeing ghosts presnap because you just knew he was going to have zero time to throw the ball.

It's okay to think he sucks, he has sucked.  But the Eagles aren't a bad defense, and he objectively looked like he knew what he was doing.

As the game continues to slow down, his accuracy will come back because it will be back to muscle memory instead of overthinking every throw.  The dude knows how to throw the ball.

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Agreed. And fair assessment.

Placement and accuracy is far more important than power (assuming the power is reasonable)

I have more faith in the kid than you, as I saw him do the things in college he's not doing now - but I also acknowledge he may never be able to play at the speed of the NFL.  

Again, for me it's not about Zach. It's his numbers to date that leads me to the conclusion that the better bet is on a bust. And yes, I do believe that odds have grown longer than when he was drafted. We may only have limited data now but it is some data. And that analysis is fluid. As more data comes in, the odds move. 

It's not personal for me and it never will be. I'm on record for saying I want JD to unlock value in FA by bringing in behavioral rehab projects. So why would I have anything personal about a good family young man like Zach? I just don't care who or what these guys are off the field -- within limits obviously, violent criminals, reckless drunks who kill people, etc. excluded.

There are only 2 NFL players that I can honestly say I hate (again, not including the societal hazards mentioned above): Geno Smith (for being the most unaccountable dolt the Jets have ever seen) and Aaron Rodgers (for not burying the hatchet and calling his mother when her house was threatened in the CA wildfire). That's it. 2 dudes.

[Jetsfan80]

19 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

And they gave up them?  I don’t follow.  

Maybe not right away, but yes, they gave up on them early on, and thus did not give them any meaningful NFL snaps.  

[Warfish]

20 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Luck had a 54% completion percentage and 10 fumbles his rookie year, Jets fans would’ve run him out of the building lmao

Lets compare then, since you bring up Luck:

Luck -- 16 starts (no missed time) - 11-5 as a Starter - 54.1% Comp. - 4,374 Passing Yards - 23 TD - 18 INT - 273.4 YPG

Wilson -- 8 Starts (missed 4 games) - 2-6 as a Starter - 58.0% Comp. - 1,539 Passing Yards - 6 TD - 11 INT - 192.4 YPG

Zach, of course, has 5 games to go he could play in, if he remains healthy.

Looking purely at statlines, I think Jets Fans would take issue with that very low comp. %, yes, and the close to 1:1 TD:INT ratio, but we'd be head over heels for 4,374 passing yards (which would be our all-time franchise record, btw) and W/L.

I can tell you now, I would not "run out of town" a rookie QB who produced the numbers Luck did. 

So no, I don't agree with you.

 

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

We may only have limited data now but it is some data. And that analysis is fluid. As more data comes in, the odds move. 

This.

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, ultraJETfan said:

I agree with this here. Everyone acts like we have the Rams Greatest Show on Turf offense. 90% of our receivers are mediocre at best. Moore has shown great promise but lets be honest here, he's Welker or Edelman with extra speed, he's not a #1. The TEs are absolute bums. I can't remember any game this season where Zach had more than 3 seconds to stand in the pocket. I watched RZ and saw Jimmy G, Lamar, and sheeeit even Minshew had enough time to stand like a statue and go through 1st, 2nd, and 3rd read.  Jets are also the 3rd worst rushing team in the NFL. Jets are LAST in defense.

The kid NEVER gets a turnover, never gets a short field, never gets a 3 and out from the D to give them a momentum boost. WRs and backs drop the ball EVERY game. So what if the ball was thrown at the backs helmet? It's not like he had to jump 5 feet in the air. Maybe if we had players that were over 6' tall we wouldn't have this problem. Seriously, I've never seen so many midgets on one football team. Usually you see 1 player that is dwarfed by everyone else. On the Jets we have 5 or 6 players this size and they are all center pieces on the offense.  Give this kid some real football players before we send him back on the horse and carriage to Amish country. If he fails with some actual weapons then I'll pay for the cart myself. Until then, lets give him a fighting chance. 

And yet with all those offensive shortcomings, the offense averaged 7.1 more ppg with 3 trash QBs under center not named Zach Wilson.  

Tough to reconcile that fact without concluding Wilson has mostly sucked.

[rtnelson]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Again, for me it's not about Zach. It's his numbers to date that leads me to the conclusion that the better bet is on a bust. And yes, I do believe that odds have grown longer than when he was drafted. We may only have limited data now but it is some data. And that analysis is fluid. As more data comes in, the odds move. 

It's not personal for me and it never will be. I'm on record for saying I want JD to unlock value in FA by bringing in behavioral rehab projects. So why would I have anything personal about a good family young man like Zach? I just don't care who or what these guys are off the field -- within limits obviously, violent criminals, reckless drunks who kill people, etc. excluded.

The better bet was always on bust.  We're the Jets.

However I'm not sure you could design a better way to have a terrible start to a rookie year for all the reasons that have been beaten to death.

Rookie HC, OC, QB Coach passing, OL that couldn't pick up a stunt, Moore missing all preseason, Davis being his #1 receiver, no real TE threat, opening the season with no running game.

There are very few QB's in the history of the game that would have come out with a lot of positives given that situation.  Of course, that's my opinion.

All the other rookie QB's don't look much better, and while yes, he has statistically been the worst it's really not by much.

The jury is still out.

[jgb]

9 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

The better bet was always on bust.  We're the Jets.

Which makes the vitriolic defense of him all the more maddening. The odds are with "the haters" so are we "hating" or are we just being logical?

Quote

However I'm not sure you could design a better way to have a terrible start to a rookie year for all the reasons that have been beaten to death.

Rookie HC, OC, QB Coach passing, OL that couldn't pick up a stunt, Moore missing all preseason, Davis being his #1 receiver, no real TE threat, opening the season with no running game.

There are very few QB's in the history of the game that would have come out with a lot of positives given that situation.  Of course, that's my opinion.

I'm sorry, man. But I've just heard this same exact story just too many times. Good QBs rise above. Good QBs take control. Good QBs might not win in a sh*t situation but they show the "it" and I'm not talking about 1-2 plays a game. I know it's early for Zach. I know this. But I also can't assume something that hasn't yet been shown no matter how badly I want it to be there.

Quote

All the other rookie QB's don't look much better, and while yes, he has statistically been the worst it's really not by much.

Respectfully, and please understand this is not aimed at you as a person, I don't give a sh*t. And that's even if it was true and Mac Jones didn't look "much better."

Quote

The jury is still out.

I know we'll never agree on the above so let me end this with a sweet note and say on this I agree. But what happens before the jury comes in? Both sides get to make their case! That's all that's happening here. No one is trying to deny him his day in court. This is how it works.

[peekskill68]

40 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Yes. There are plenty of examples.  It's obvious.  The ball jumps out of his hands.  

I'm going to have to disagree.  There's a difference between having a strong arm and a superior arm.  I haven't seen any Marino-esque throws from Wilson where I'm in awe.  

[slimjasi]

7 hours ago, BallinPB said:

The last 5 weeks will be telling.  Every QB progresses differently but I remember the last 4 weeks of Sam Darnolds rookie season where he was playing at a top 10 QB level.   He was throwing to Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa and Herndon.  He also missed time due to injury.

You can't tell me the receivers we have are not better that what he had.  We need to see something to end this season to make us optimistic.  Obviously Darnold didn't pan out but if he could play that well with his supporting cast then there's no reason Zach can't with his.  

Well, those last 4 games didn’t end up meaning much for Darnold in the grand scheme of things, so it’s hard to say how “telling” how any particular 4-5 game stretch is for longterm prospects. 
 

I think the most important thing is to see consistent improvement in things like completion percentage, yards per attempt , and turnovers. I also am a big believer in seeing how guys look in year 2, after a full offseason to reflect and improve on weaknesses. 

 

[#27TheDominator]

Every day we argue about whether he is going to become a Montana or an Elway.  Wake me up when he is Steve ******* DeBerg.

[ultraJETfan]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And yet with all those offensive shortcomings, the offense averaged 7.1 more ppg with 3 trash QBs under center not named Zach Wilson.  

Tough to reconcile that fact without concluding Wilson has mostly sucked.

I get it. It's frustrating to see him get outperformed by the back ups but we have to be objective here. The other QBs have >20yrs of NFL experience. He hasn't played a full season and this team is a clown show in just about every area which must be hard for even an elite QB to overcome much less a rookie. I think it's a bit premature to expect him to be the best player on the team right out of the gate. I think this first year should be about patience and next year with what I assume will be an improved roster then the kid gloves are off and its sink or swim and I'll be the first one to donate for planes to fly TRADE ZACH! over Florham Park.

[65 Toss Power Trap]

2 hours ago, BallinPB said:

Good rookie QB's can look good on bad teams.  Andrew Luck came in playing with the worst offensive line that might've been assembled in history and still looked good.  Granted he did have Wayne and a young Hilton but everything else in that offense was terrible.  

I'm not saying these guys are Andrew Luck or should be but I would think the goal is for them to be able to play well despite not having everything around them be ideal.  

I agree. Peyton looked pretty decent on a horrible team, or at least most people thought he'd be just fine.

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

All the other rookie QB's don't look much better, and while yes, he has statistically been the worst it's really not by much.

Amazingly, I haven't really looked at that this year.

Lawrence (#1 Overall) -- 12 games, 12 starts - 247 for 426 (58.0%), 2,514 Yards, 9 TD, 10 INT, 209.5 YPG, 72.3 Rate

Wilson (#2 Overall) -- 8 games, 8 Starts - 141 for 243 (58.0%), 1,539 Yards, 6 TD, 11 INT, 192.4 YPG, 66.2 Rate

Lance (#3 Overall) -- 5 games, 1 Start - 25 for 48 (52.1%), 354 Yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 70.8 YPG, 88.4 Rate

Fields (#11 Overall) -- 10 games, 8 starts - 115 for 198 (58.1%), 1,361 Yards, 4 TD, 8 INT, 136.1 YPG, 69.0 Rate

Jones (#15 Overall) -- 12 games, 12 starts - 268 for 381 (70.3%), 2,850 Yards, 16 TD, 8 INT, 237.5 YPG, 97.1 Rate

Trask (#64 Overall) -- Has Not Played

Mond (#66 Overall) -- Has Not Played

Mills (#67 Overall) -- 8 Games, 6 Starts - 146 for 223 (65.5%), 1,406 Yards, 7 TD, 8 INT, 175.8 YPG, 78.4 Rate

Looking at this group, Jones is the head and shoulders best performer of the lot, no question.

Lawrence looks to be #2, but not leading the rest of the pack by much for a "generational" guy.

 Fields and Wilson both look like poop, with Lance not even being good as poop yet.

Mills has produced meh, ok, given his draft slot, on an arguably worse team than anyone else in the class, providing for far less cost the same or better level of production to Wilson/Fields.

2 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

The jury is still out.

Indeed it is. 

There will be a post just like this one two years from now, slamming the door on a few of these guys, and praising others as the pick of this particular litter.

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, ultraJETfan said:

I get it. It's frustrating to see him get outperformed by the back ups but we have to be objective here. The other QBs have >20yrs of NFL experience. He hasn't played a full season and this team is a clown show in just about every area which must be hard for even an elite QB to overcome much less a rookie. I think it's a bit premature to expect him to be the best player on the team right out of the gate. I think this first year should be about patience and next year with what I assume will be an improved roster then the kid gloves are off and its sink or swim and I'll be the first one to donate for planes to fly TRADE ZACH! over Florham Park.

It still doesn't explain -- and in fact, further highlights the illogical position of why so many Wilsonians were adamantly against bringing in a credible QB2 to start the beginning of the season.

[rtnelson]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Which makes the vitriolic defense of him all the more maddening. The odds are with "the haters" so are we "hating" or are we just being logical?

I'm sorry, man. But I've just heard this same exact story just too many times. Good QBs rise above. Good QBs take control. Good QBs might not win in a sh*t situation but they show the "it" and I'm not talking about 1-2 plays a game. 

Respectfully, and please understand this is not aimed at you as a person, I don't give a sh*t. And that's even if it was true and Mac Jones didn't look "much better."

I know we'll never agree on the above so let me end this with a sweet note and say on this I agree. But what happens before the jury comes in? Both sides get to make their cases! That's all that's happening here. No one is trying to deny him his day in court. This is how it works.

It's okay to be "logical" about the situation.  I would just argue that logically the kid has talent and is finally improving.  

He's being asked to completely change his game.  I watched every single game of his at BYU live, and the dude looked for the home run ball on almost every play.  Even before the Covid season when they were playing little sisters of the poor every week.  Not to mention he went from being one of the least pressured QB's in college to the most pressured QB in the NFL through the first number of weeks.  It got in his head, for sure.  He looks like a completely different QB than what I watched in college.  And not just the results, you could see it in his body language in the pocket.  That's also starting to improve.

I respect your opinion, and agree with a lot of it.  So far, it's not looked great.  I suppose we just differ in our opinion on how much the offense as a whole effects a QB, because I don't think the offense that got him to where he is now is the same one we are running now.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

It's okay to be "logical" about the situation.  I would just argue that logically the kid has talent and is finally improving.  

Never questioned.

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

He's being asked to completely change his game.

Sounds like further reason to be skeptical.

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

I watched every single game of his at BYU live, and the dude looked for the home run ball on almost every play.  Even before the Covid season when they were playing little sisters of the poor every week.  Not to mention he went from being one of the least pressured QB's in college to the most pressured QB in the NFL through the first number of weeks.  It got in his head, for sure.  He looks like a completely different QB than what I watched in college.  And not just the results, you could see it in his body language in the pocket. 

See above.

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

That's also starting to improve.

Again, no denial.

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

I respect your opinion, and agree with a lot of it.  So far, it's not looked great.  I suppose we just differ in our opinion on how much the offense as a whole effects a QB, because I don't think the offense that got him to where he is now is the same one we are running now.

I'm not expecting the world. I'm expecting very little. Competence, composure, accuracy, touch. I haven't seen it yet in consistent quantities. Again -- consistency is the #1 QB success metric.