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ZW All-22 Breakdown


rtnelson

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2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

That's great! Don't listen to anyone about anything! You already KNOW Wilson is terrible!

 

Joey Reaction GIF by MOODMAN

Buddy we're on a Jets site and even here the opinion of most was that it was a bad throw.

Anyone who doesn't desperately want that throw to be good can see that it is bad. The irony of you accusing me of having preconceived notions on that play is pretty amusing. 

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12 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

I heard on a podcast that this game from ZW was like a Rorschach test. What you take away from this game says more about you and your pre-conceived thoughts on ZW than it does his performance. 

He played a fine game. If he was a veteran you wouldn't even think twice of it - it was an average game. Since he is a rookie under the microscope people will use any play to show he is either a bust or the second coming depending on your perspective. 

If you're a hater of ZW you can point to several errant throws and the fact that he didn't do anything to wow you. 

If you're a ZW supporter you'll point to progress in his decision making, ability to play within structure, and time to throw. 

Bottom line is if he did this for 17 games this season all of us would be going into next season confident we got our guy. However, he has shown way more bad than good this year, so looking at what is arguably his best game of the year and saying this is ZW now is probably unreasonably optimistic. He still has five games, and my hope is that he continues to build off of these last two weeks where he has shown a better ability to play within structure. If he can sprinkle in a few more hero plays over the next five weeks while limiting the dumb ones, I'l go into next year reasonably confident. 

 

There's so much truth in this post it almost comes across as a comedy to me.

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3 hours ago, rtnelson said:

I'm a big fan of this guys breakdowns, but finally we got a clear all-22 view of the Elijah Moore drop/bad pass.  Time stamping it to that play for those not interested in the rest of the video.

 

This is the type of stuff I’m come to these boards for. Something I would’ve never seen. Looks like that “errant throw” was actually a really good throw 

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3 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Buddy we're on a Jets site and even here the opinion of most was that it was a bad throw.

Anyone who doesn't desperately want that throw to be good can see that it is bad. The irony of you accusing me of having preconceived notions on that play is pretty amusing. 

The only amusing thing is you calling a throw that hit our best WR in the hands on an obvious timing mixup (which was probably on the WR, but there is no way to prove that) a "wild miss"

You are wrong and you should feel bad. 

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7 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

I don’t think anyone, I certainly don’t, hates Wilson.  I was fine with the pick. I will root for and hope he improves until the day he’s no longer playing (here).  The only thing I care about is the Jets winning and being successful.  That is why I point out our starting QB’s flaws, which there have been a lot of up to this point.

People screamed about LaFluer.  People screamed about the OL.  People are screaming about Saleh, Ulbrich, JD and the defense.  People are allowed to scream about Wilson, and there are a number of people around here who just cannot handle that.  It is all justified.  The team is 3-9 and has been historically bad in multiple facets multiple times this year.

QBs have and develop tendencies.  Sure they learn to fix them and grow out of them, but like Darnold and SO many other QBs who come into the league, sometimes they don’t.  Wilson looks promising, but it’s foolish and disingenuous to ignore his issues when he has yet to consistently show otherwise in the few games he’s played.  I take 1 red pill with breakfast each morning.

This is a completely fair take.  I really think the mix-up in general here is that a positive post about improvement is read by some as "proof Zach Wilson is a FQB", and criticism of his downright foul QB play is read as "Zach Wilson is a bust".

For the most part I think we all agree that he's been bad, but is starting to look better.  Taking improvement with a grain of salt because of how low the floor has looked at times is reasonable.  I just don't understand the need to attempt to inject all positive threads about the kid with a dose of negative overall opinions.  Especially when we can all agree on the facts.

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4 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

This is the type of stuff I’m come to these boards for. Something I would’ve never seen. Looks like that “errant throw” was actually a really good throw 

Lord knows it's not for the friendly personalities of the locals. ;)

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7 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Buddy we're on a Jets site and even here the opinion of most was that it was a bad throw.

Anyone who doesn't desperately want that throw to be good can see that it is bad. The irony of you accusing me of having preconceived notions on that play is pretty amusing. 

That opinion was made before the all-22.  Both sides saying "bad throw" and "drop" without complete information.

Now we know it was overwhelmingly probable it was just miscommunication.  Without even attempting to place blame on either Moore or Wilson.

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32 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

In other words if we pretend that the worst QB performance in the league this season didn't happen, ignore the garbage time context for the stats vs Atlanta and then carry the four we can feel much better about ourselves. 

And if it's just recent displays you're prioritising then It's pretty convenient that you didn't start with week 5. 

He was terrible in 2 of his first 3 games in the NFL (and in 3 of his first 5 games before the injury, overall). He has been improving since then. He has. 

What people are saying is: "This 22 year old rookie QB played a lot better in games 4-7 than he did in games 1-3" - This doesn't make sense to you?

I just don't understand why anyone wanted to draft a QB at #2 overall if they weren't willing to let him get better? I'm genuinely blown away by some of the craziness on here. This isn't Sam Darnold, who we watched for 38 games here over three different seasons. 

 

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1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

He was terrible in 2 of his first 3 games in the NFL (and in 3 of his first 5 games before the injury, overall). He has been improving since then. He has. 

What people are saying is: "This 22 year old rookie QB played a lot better in games 4-7 than he did in games 1-3" - This doesn't make sense to you?

I just don't understand why anyone wanted to draft a QB at #2 overall if they weren't willing to let him get better? I'm genuinely blown away by some of the craziness on here. This isn't Sam Darnold, who we watched for 38 games here over three different seasons. 

 

I agree with everything you said.  I just think a lot of people here (myself included) have whiplash due to Zach’s surprisingly horrible accuracy early on (which is getting better)

We expected him to struggle and improve on decision making and reading defenses, not hitting simple screen passes and slants.

And I still have nightmares of Zach literally yolo-ing the ball around in the first Pats game.  I still need more time to get over that.

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14 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

Just go watch the "every throw" film again.  There were plenty of good throws and good decisions in the second half.  If you just want to look at stats, that's well and good.  I just find that strange because everyone in the business would tell you stats don't tell the whole story.

I’ll look at it. I’m not trying to rag on Wilson too much. He showed progress, etc, but if you guys are encouraged by Wilson’s rookie season so far, you had to think Darnold’s rookie year portended superstardom by comparison. 

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1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

 

I'm fascinated by why you guys are so dug into this "Wilson is terrible" narrative. It's really been over the top on here. 

 

The board has become unreadable.  Even after Max asked for a little restraint it's gotten even worse.  Things that have nothing to do with Zach get conflated into a 'Zach sucks' pile-on by the 5-6 dudes trolling the board.  

Used to be a fun board.  

 

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So the people bashing Jets fans for making excuses for Zach are using those same excuses for Trevor?

The Jags have a good enough supporting cast just like the Jets and Bears. The Jags supporting cast was ranked higher than the Jets. The reason they don't look good is because of the QB. Same issue Jets WRs have.

 

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23 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

I agree with everything you said.  I just think a lot of people here (myself included) have whiplash due to Zach’s surprisingly horrible accuracy early on (which is getting better)

We expected him to struggle and improve on decision making and reading defenses, not hitting simple screen passes and slants.

And I still have nightmares of Zach literally yolo-ing the ball around in the first Pats game.  I still need more time to get over that.

Right. He got off to as bad of a start as we could have possibly imagined. Silly overhype from meaningless preseason games didn't help. But all is not lost just yet.

Before we burn the witch, let's look into this "Devil" guy a little more carefully. 

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1 hour ago, LIJetsFan said:

Based on my eyeball test I've been underwhelmed by Zack's progress to date.  However, after watching/listening to this vid and reading this thread my estimation of him has gone up a bit.  I'm back in the "he has talent and looks to be improving" camp.    

He's been better the last couple games. Taking a few weeks off to observe may have been of value to the kid. 

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28 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

The board has become unreadable.  Even after Max asked for a little restraint it's gotten even worse.  Things that have nothing to do with Zach get conflated into a 'Zach sucks' pile-on by the 5-6 dudes trolling the board.  

Used to be a fun board.  

 

For QB's with over 195 passes. Zach's ranking in the following statistical category. According to Footballoutsiders:

DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement - 32nd (Last)

YAR, or Yard Above Replacement - 32nd (Last)

DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average - 31st (2nd Last, Justin Fields is bad)

VOA, or Value Over Average - 32nd (Last)

QBR - 32nd (Last)

Effective Yards (EYds) - 31st (Justin Fields strikes again)

Completion % - 31st (Lawrence)

Basically the list of QB's you can make a case that Zach has been better than are:

J. Rosen

D. Lock

T. Boyle

C. Streveler

T. Hill

P. Walker

T. Huntley

Real heavyweights of the game.

Zach is being criticised because by any statistical measure Zach has been terrible. Terrible for a veteran or terrible for a rookie. The fact that Lawrence and Fields have been garbage does nothing to change the fact that things do not look good or that Zach would already need to be an almost unprecedented outlier to become a quality QB going by performances over the last 10 years. I think the criticism of Zach will ease up when he isn't the worst performing QB in the league.

These are statistical facts by guys who aren't connected to the Jets in any way whatsoever. There is no bias here. We would all like Zach to be great but he hasn't been and has been bad by any measure. That's the reality. Consider it trolling if you will but don't act like that's not a reflection of your bias rather than mine. Hilariously some of the same people vehemently defending Zach were sh*tting all over Tua Tagovailoa last year when he was immeasurably better in every sense. Looking at you @Jet Nut. These guys now pretending to be the voice of reason when Zach is called out for his bad play is just the height of irony.  

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3 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

I just watched the whole video and I came away rolling my eyes. You can make a narrative  to make anyone look good or bad. We don't  know what the route was on the first incomplete pass to Moore. He is correct that Moore broke off the route in man coverage and it appears they weren't  on the same page, but it actually looked like Moore made a good read running open instead of challenging the DB to catch what would have been a contested ball. This is not as bad if that was what it was. It is just familiarity.  The long pass to Moore where Zach had a rush in his face was a prayer. Moore was covered and we aren't  talking about a guy like Diggs who is going to out muscle the DB, Moore needs space to make plays. That said, Zach was great in the first half. I thought the light had gone on but he went back to bad mechanics,  poor throws, and bad decisions  in the second half. I think he has made a better effort in putting together  a complete game by starting out well but still needs to do it. 

I agree for the most part, but he didn’t play much in the 2nd half. The game was step in the right direction.  All i care about 

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27 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I’ll look at it. I’m not trying to rag on Wilson too much. He showed progress, etc, but if you guys are encouraged by Wilson’s rookie season so far, you had to think Darnold’s rookie year portended superstardom by comparison. 

I *was* excited about Darnold after his rookie season, and I don't think that was crazy.  There are a whole lot more QBs that end up being good whose rookie year is like Darnold's, than whose rookie year is like Allen's...

I think there's no chance that Wilson will have "proven" anything by the end of this year.  This offseason I just want to be hopeful that with a not-crazy year 2 jump, he'll start looking like a FQB.  A lot of "hopes" and "maybes", but that's what you get when you draft a QB...

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24 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I’ll look at it. I’m not trying to rag on Wilson too much. He showed progress, etc, but if you guys are encouraged by Wilson’s rookie season so far, you had to think Darnold’s rookie year portended superstardom by comparison. 

To be encouraged about progress of our extremely talented young rookie isn't the same as pointing to the game claiming he's now guaranteed to become a great FQB.

We obviously need to see more of this consistently, and a great game, instead of a great half would go a long way as well.  I'm just taking positive progress as a positive sign that things are moving in a positive direction.  Gotta stay positive!

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23 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

So the people bashing Jets fans for making excuses for Zach are using those same excuses for Trevor?

The Jags have a good enough supporting cast just like the Jets and Bears. The Jags supporting cast was ranked higher than the Jets. The reason they don't look good is because of the QB. Same issue Jets WRs have.

 

Lawrence’s receiving corps is Laviska Shenault, Laquon Treadwell, James O’Shaughnessy, and Marvin Jones.

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4 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

 

 Consider it trolling if you will but don't act like that's not a reflection of your bias rather than mine.

I made one comment about Zach after the game--something along the lines of "Good game, showed improvement, had some poorly placed throws-has started to hit the layups but still missed some.  If he hits Moore for the TD in the back of the endzone and doesn't throw the awful pick, I would feel better.  Needs to show continued improvement over the rest of the season."

ONE COMMENT.  Made my point and left for the day because the board has become a sewer.  

You dudes go on for 100s of posts sh*tting on Zach (quoting and then re-quoting each other) even when it doesn't involve Zach.  It's the definition of trolling. 

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Lawrence’s receiving corps is Laviska Shenault, Laquon Treadwell, James O’Shaughnessy, and Marvin Jones.

I think our WR corps is decent but in desperate need of a TE.  You think the Jacksonville fan would recognize any of our receivers besides Cole?

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2 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

I made one comment about Zach after the game--something along the lines of "Good game, showed improvement, had some poorly placed throws-has started to hit the layups but still missed some.  If he hits Moore for the TD in the back of the endzone and doesn't throw the awful pick, I would feel better.  Needs to show continued improvement over the rest of the season."

ONE COMMENT.  Made my point and left for the day because the board has become a sewer.  

You dudes go on for 100s of posts sh*tting on Zach (quoting and then re-quoting each other) even when it doesn't involve Zach.  It's the definition of trolling. 

It's a Jets forum my guy. The performance of the Jets QB, particularly a 2nd overall pick is always going to be topical. If you consider this to be trolling I worry about what you'd have thought of whatever side of the Pennington divide you weren't on.

This is a thread about Zach Wilson. Why would you be shocked to see comments about Zach Wilson?

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4 minutes ago, thshadow said:

I *was* excited about Darnold after his rookie season, and I don't think that was crazy.  There are a whole lot more QBs that end up being good whose rookie year is like Darnold's, than whose rookie year is like Allen's...

I think there's no chance that Wilson will have "proven" anything by the end of this year.  This offseason I just want to be hopeful that with a not-crazy year 2 jump, he'll start looking like a FQB.  A lot of "hopes" and "maybes", but that's what you get when you draft a QB...

1000% I think pro-Zach people are terrified by what they’ve seen and are increasingly desperate for any shred of evidence that he might be good some day. For example, they’re currently rallying around a video wherein a teenager hypothesizes about touchdowns Zach Wilson would have thrown if his receivers happened to be in the areas where his kooky passes fell harmlessly to the turf. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

It's a Jets forum my guy. The performance of the Jets QB, particularly a 2nd overall pick is always going to be topical. If you consider this to be trolling I worry about what you'd have thought of whatever side of the Pennington divide you weren't on.

This is a thread about Zach Wilson. Why would you be shocked to see comments about Zach Wilson?

It's not THIS thread I'm talking about.

It's the entire board, nearly every thread derailed by the Anti-Zach Militia.

The AZM.  There it is, you guys now have your own call sign.   

And I was on the old board for the Pennington divide.  Didn't play his rookie year. He was a relative veteran when the sh*t really got going.  Was some fun stuff-I had a legendary battle with PatsFanTx about it.  

This is worse.  

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6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

1000% I think pro-Zach people are terrified by what they’ve seen and are increasingly desperate for any shred of evidence that he might be good some day. For example, they’re currently rallying around a video wherein a teenager hypothesizes about touchdowns Zach Wilson would have thrown if his receivers happened to be in the areas where his kooky passes fell harmlessly to the turf. 

 

This is the type of post that keeps this debate going and spawns more vitriol between "sides".  You're seemingly more desperate to argue for the sake of arguing than anything.  I think I am starting to understand your signature now.

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1 hour ago, rtnelson said:

That opinion was made before the all-22.  Both sides saying "bad throw" and "drop" without complete information.

Now we know it was overwhelmingly probable it was just miscommunication.  Without even attempting to place blame on either Moore or Wilson.

I think Wilson actually said he expected Moore to keep running his route on that one, aka on a different page. 

Though I will say that miscommunications can be on the QB, we just don't have the finer details to make a conclusion.

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2 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Few comments; this dude has no idea what the play call was, he has no idea what the route was supposed to be, and has no idea if Zach Wilson put the ball "where he wanted to"....he's speculating like the rest of us.  

And Luke Grant is a giant douche, but that is besides the point. 

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Just now, Grandy said:

I think Wilson actually said he expected Moore to keep running his route on that one, aka on a different page. 

Though I will say that miscommunications can be on the QB, we just don't have the finer details to make a conclusion.

Absolutely, we have no idea if the play was designed one way or the other, or if they weren't on the same page.  Definitely no conclusion to be reached there.  But we can conclude it wasn't just an obviously bad pass.

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