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Can Jets extend Quinnen Williams now?


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I read an article by Tyler Greenawalt at JetsWire a few days ago discussing the possible avenues the Jets could take regarding a Quinnen Williams extension. 

My question is do the Jets have to wait until this off-season or can they work on the extension now? I consider him part of our defensive core and I don't want to trade him like we did Leonard Williams, then draft the same guy with a 1st rd pick. 

Don't the Patriots do this sort of thing when it comes to extensions early? Maybe you get a discount if you take care of his contract early. 

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3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Best I understand he has to have finished 3 years, so earliest would be March ‘22.

They can talk about it before then, but nothing can be signed.

Hopefully JD is having those conversations with his agent. He's gotta be part of the future. Jets need to keep their good homegrown players. 

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As a former high pick, even as one not selected by the current GM, Williams will try to command high dollars.  The Leonard Williams contract ($21M per over 3 years, $45M guaranteed) was really bad for us in that light, because I'm sure that's how QW and his agent will view him to be:  Deserving of the # 2 DT contract behind Aaron Donald.  

I think we should wait at least one more offseason to negotiate in earnest.  He's going to have a high cost regardless of how he performs in the remaining years of his deal.  And I do think there's a decent chance he'll put up big numbers next year with Lawson returning and the likely addition of another EDGE guy or 2, with one of them being a high draft pick.  

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I would try and lock him down at 17-18 with good incentives for production during the offseason.  If he wants 21-22 or something to put him in line with some of the better players in the league I think you have to leave it on the table.

Worst case is you 5th year option, and if he still wants a big deal that you don't think he's worth, franchise for a year and draft a replacement.  He's a good player, and I definitely want him on the team, I just don't think he's worth a top tier contract and the team has options to keep him around a number of years without paying too much.

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9 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

I would try and lock him down at 17-18 with good incentives for production during the offseason.  If he wants 21-22 or something to put him in line with some of the better players in the league I think you have to leave it on the table.

There's no way he's willing to take a cent less than Leonard Williams and DeForest Buckner make ($21M per).

If JD gets QW to sign for $17M per, hand the man an extension of his own.

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7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

There's no way he's willing to take a cent less than Leonard Williams and DeForest Buckner make ($21M per).

If JD gets QW to sign for $17M per, hand the man an extension of his own.

There's a lot to be gained by signing a long extension a year potentially two years early.  Especially when an injury or two over the next few years could drop his stock a lot.  Although you're probably right, I was just saying what I would offer him because he's still locked in for two more years in a contract now that pays nowhere near that.  Combine that with a cheaper franchise tag and that's 3 more years with no long term security it's definitely something he'll have to think about.

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16 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

As someone who’s apprehensive of the Mo Wilkerson effect, I would pay him as late as possible.

Yeah why rush it?  Pick up the 5th year option and negotiate in earnest after that with threat of a franchise tag enticing him to sign long-term during his 5th year.  

If he stays healthy and continues to be a great player then pay him the market value which he's earned.  Kid is a great player, our best player hands down. 

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2 minutes ago, David Harris said:

Yeah why rush it?  Pick up the 5th year option and negotiate in earnest after that with threat of a franchise tag enticing him to sign long-term during his 5th year.  

If he stays healthy and continues to be a great player then pay him the market value which he's earned.  Kid is a great player, our best player hands down. 

I think he’s great too.  I think people just unrealistically expected him to be Aaron Donald 2.0 when we used the 3rd overall pick on him.

Remember taking Dewayne Robertson 4th overall?

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6 minutes ago, David Harris said:

Yeah why rush it?  Pick up the 5th year option and negotiate in earnest after that with threat of a franchise tag enticing him to sign long-term during his 5th year.  

If he stays healthy and continues to be a great player then pay him the market value which he's earned.  Kid is a great player, our best player hands down. 

Because you save money and increase your flexibility long term by doing the extension now.

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6 minutes ago, thebuzzardman said:

My god, why? 

The idea would probably be to offer him a longer deal that is front-loaded with guaranteed money early in exchange for a discount on his annual salary. It could make sense. I'd probably wait a year and see how he plays next to the (hopefully) improved edge rushers we will have next year

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2 hours ago, nj meadowlands said:

What's your take on this, SE?  Should they?

Not yet I wouldn't. 

Say he finishes the season with ~9-10 sacks, give or take, which is a high number for an IDL which will cause his rate to spike into the $20MM/yr range. Thus, there will be no reason to get in early, other than to get in ahead of inflation (at the cost of incurring his injury risk). Except there's already going to be a massive cap increase next year as it is so I don't know how much inflation is really being saved. On the other hand, if he drops down to ~5 in 2022 then his extension would've been for less -- or anyway, no more, and that's one less year of risk being incurred. 

You get in early - e.g. after year 3 - with a player you know 100% for sure that (injuries notwithstanding) you're extending no matter what the contract demands are. I don't think he qualifies as that just yet. The team has him for 2 more years (it's worth exercising his 5th year option), plus they can tag him after that, so they're not risking much by waiting another year or two. 

This doesn't mean they have to wait until the end of his 5th season after tagging him to extend him in Maccagnan fashion; imo plenty before then the team will know more about what he is, what he isn't, and not just what else they think he could be.

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27 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The idea would probably be to offer him a longer deal that is front-loaded with guaranteed money early in exchange for a discount on his annual salary. It could make sense. I'd probably wait a year and see how he plays next to the (hopefully) improved edge rushers we will have next year

It'd be an extension beyond the 5th year option; not ripping up his current deal. Also keep in mind because he's not on the field for 75% of the defensive snaps in at least 2 of his first 3 years, he's as cheap as an IDL player can be for such a high draft pick. I think @jason423 has his projection at a hair over $10MM in 2023, on top of the $5MM he's due for 2022

So they'd exercise his 5th year option and then offer/sign him to a 4-year extension beyond that, to have him locked up for 6 more seasons total (through 2027). But the first 2 years would already be at the rate he's currently due. 

  • 2022 = $5MM
  • 2023 = $10MM
  • 2024-2027 = extension years, probably in the $20MM/yr range if done this coming March, assuming he finishes with ~10 sacks. 

Total = 6 years $95MM, but remember they already have him for 2 years $15MM, plus they could franchise tag him for whatever the rate will be at that time (next year due to be ~$17MM). 

  • 2022 = $5MM
  • 2023 = $10MM
  • 2024 = $20MM(?) franchise tag
  • 2025 = $24MM(?) franchise tag #2

The advantage to the latter is the team is never on the hook for a crazy amount if he regresses or gets injured. The downside is the players generally hate being year to year because they all know their careers can end on any given play, and their future mega- earnings evaporate along with it. 

For now I'd wait. 

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I could make the argument to do it if he's locked in with a 5th yr option at $10.2MM as the basis for it, which means banging out the extension before exercising the option.

If that 5th yr option is still variable (gets a $6MM raise in 2023 for making the pro bowl - 1st ballot, not alternate - in 2022, assuming he doesn't make it for 2021), then there's less incentive to do it this early. It's not like Watt who was already a 2x first team AP and 2x pro bowler at the end of year 3 and it was baked into the cake. 

But it really depends on how what Q's line in the sand will be. The team is now in - and for a while looks to continue to be in - good cap shape so they won't need a lot of Tannenbauming to fit everyone they want to. Especially with so many young starters now and so many more high/higher draft picks still to come, the reality is they can afford overpayment mistakes. Depending on what he demands I could go either way on this in March. 

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2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Because you save money and increase your flexibility long term by doing the extension now.

Meh, I don't think so.

 

 "The fifth-year option, meanwhile, will cost $10.29-$11.51 million for 2023, but would bump up to $16.62 million if Williams makes the Pro Bowl this year"

 

Firstly, let's NOT vote for QW to make the Pro Bowl, LOL.  

Secondly, the top IDL make somewhere around $15 - 20 million per year.  So the 5th year option at $10.2 - 11.5 million is saving five to ten million dollars in his 5th year alone.  Plus if you don't sign him long-term early you mitigate the risk of injury.  What if we extend him early and he tears something in his 5th year and now we're on the hook for a ton of guarantees?

He was the #3 overall pick and is already set for life with what he's been paid.  By extending early you are not getting any savings while taking on injury risk.  I understand you want to reward you're own players, and we should, just smartly and at the right time while mitigating risk. 

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1 hour ago, David Harris said:

Meh, I don't think so.

 

 "The fifth-year option, meanwhile, will cost $10.29-$11.51 million for 2023, but would bump up to $16.62 million if Williams makes the Pro Bowl this year"

 

Firstly, let's NOT vote for QW to make the Pro Bowl, LOL.  

Secondly, the top IDL make somewhere around $15 - 20 million per year.  So the 5th year option at $10.2 - 11.5 million is saving five to ten million dollars in his 5th year alone.  Plus if you don't sign him long-term early you mitigate the risk of injury.  What if we extend him early and he tears something in his 5th year and now we're on the hook for a ton of guarantees?

He was the #3 overall pick and is already set for life with what he's been paid.  By extending early you are not getting any savings while taking on injury risk.  I understand you want to reward you're own players, and we should, just smartly and at the right time while mitigating risk. 

Does anyone know for certain if he'd also get that same $6MM bump if he makes the PB in '22 instead of '21? If so, and he somehow gets a PB nod this year and next year, that'd bump his 5th yr to $20MM (like Nick Bosa will probably get after his 2nd PB vote goes through this year).

My guess is they only count those PB votes for his first 3 seasons, like the way they calculate incentives for playing 75% of the team's D snaps in 2 of the first 3 years (and ignore year 4). Seems likely they'd use the same timeframe for both, but without researching I'm not 100% sure.

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I see the economic justification for extending him now, but the Jets’ track record on second contracts/extensions is really bad.

I am not feeling like that Jets/JD/Johnsons extend him.  

I think guys that big need to be constantly motivated.  I like the idea of keeping QW on a short leash and working for his contracts.  If we don’t need the franchise tag on anyone else, using that and the 5th year option would be the best way to maximize value from him (and yes, I have said that I think the FT is exploitative).  

If QW makes the Pro Bowl this year, so his 5th year option price increases, I think the extension could make more sense. 

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For context, PFF has given him a rank of 65.2 this year, which is 41 out of 125 qualifiying DTs.  Last year he was 81. 

Leonard Williams is like 75 this year, and had an 82 one year with us. 

I mean, its good, and trending upward for the season after a slow start, but is Williams worth it for the Giants at his price point?

We do need a few key foundational players (even if they're not A Donald level), so there is a definite argument that he would be, given the lack of homegrown talent and if he's a good locker room guy then sure.. 

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5 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Makes sense for Q because you're essentially giving him a top-of-market deal, moving money years earlier and eliminating risk for him). Works for the Jets because it shifts his money earlier (i.e. before what you hope are big extensions for your QB and LT) and drops the annualized cost, plus reduces the risk of an inflating market. Basically, the only thing Q gives up by signing that deal is that market inflation, but before he can get to that he's got to play at least 3, more likely 4 healthy seasons (yr 4, option, 1 or 2 franchise tags).

That math is why extensions get done

You're assuming that he won't hold out during the less expensive years later on. As we all know players never hold out despite knowing the language they signed when it isn't to their advantage or their ego takes over.  

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