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Jets a Lock to Draft Linderbaum if he’s There? Not so fast, Jets fans


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I love Linderbaum as much as the next guy but we have a seriously lack of defensive playmakers.  My wish list includes Hutchinson and Leal.  If the Seattle pick and the board flows a certain way I can make room for Linderbaum or Green from A&M but really we need defense.  No, I do not mean Stingley.  

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

Mangold was drafted at the very bottom of round 1 - pick #29, a whopping four picks away from being in round 2 - not inside the top 10. The HOF center we had before him was originally drafted in that range (#36 overall). The best young center in the game from last year's draft went way down at #63 to KC while people were convinced he represented value in the mid-20s. And it's harder to replace a young receiver like Moore than a young iOLman like Humphrey. Meanwhile Humphrey is a 320-pound tank.

With his team fielding the #32 defense, if this melonhead drafts a 280-290 pound center in (or even near) the top 10 overall picks in the draft, when he's got a competent 28 year-old veteran center already under contract, returning in the same blocking system, it's a fireable offense. 

This team is far, far more in need of a game-changer (or 5) on defense than wasting a top 10 pick to upgrade from an average center to a prospect you hope will be an above average center. That magnitude of upgrade isn't worth anywhere near a top 10 overall pick, and it's questionable whether that level upgrade is even worth a top 10 pick in round 2. 

I will never understand where people get the idea that it's even loosely bordering on wisdom for a team to invest 3 top 15 overall picks on the OL in 3 consecutive drafts: a draft strategy employed by zero SB winners, SB losers, or even WC teams in NFL history. 

You take a player in the top 10 who keeps you from spending $20-25MM/year (even more if you're talking QB) on a veteran, at the type of position you typically need to find in the top 10 picks or trade multiple 1sts to grab one; not a $10-12MM/year veteran at a position where most probowlers come from rounds 2 or later (and a handful of the top 10-15 were from round 6 outright or undrafted).

  • Humphrey #63
  • Linsley #161
  • Kelce #191
  • Ragnow #18
    • Evan Brown undrafted (the guy filling in for Ragnow this year, and apparently isn't half bad)
  • Allen #111
  • Roullier #199
  • Tretter #122
  • Jensen #203
  • McGovern #144
  • B.Jones #99
  • Andrews undrafted
  • Bozeman #215
  • Paradis #207 (was great in Den, but blows since getting paid)
  • Biadasz #146 (terrible start this year, but hasn't allowed one pressure or hurry in over a month, nor a sack all season)

The track record for drafting a center in round 1 has been pretty bad over the last 4-5 years. Ragnow is the only one who's lived up to expectations.

finally someone who gets it. i swear reading this i though you stole my thoughts . lol

were going to look back at these 5 top 15 picks in 10 years and were going to cry if we waste 3 on the OL. 

i think we would have a SB or 2 if we drafted TE Vernon Davis instead of Brick. 

we want to change this franchise around all we need to do is look how the best ones do it, and not try to follow the worst team in NFL history ( Detroit ) 

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6 hours ago, varjet said:

As of now, the Jets appear to be in draft never never land again, although I heard Walter Football say that 1-2 QBs will find their way into the top 3.  Yes, we don’t believe it now, but it always happens. 

For these top picks, EDGE, OL and WR seem the way to go.  If the Jets like Linderbaum and/or Kyle Hamilton, they should trade down. 

It will come down to who the Jets really like. And they may even trade own as you suggest. But if they end up selecting 5th, they are great candidates to either get one of the top 2 Edge rushers, Stingley or the top O-lineman in the draft. I would be happy with any one of those players. 

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8 hours ago, HighPitch said:

Jet fans are funny. When the year started it was all about building the line to protect zach and respect the notion that an elite O line is the key to a dominating offense.

jet O line juuuussssst starts to play well? We dont need any more O line guys. Weve got George Fant and Fatty McCrushedknees

It's not that they're just starting to play well.  It's that people are just starting to notice.  If your OL is giving up 2 sacks per game you can live with it while giving enough time to throw the ball, you're good.  That's what the Jets have been doing with Zach under center after he got beat up in his first 3 starts.  And as somebody else mentioned, not taking a C in rd 1 doens't mean you can't take one in rd 2-4.

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On 12/8/2021 at 7:37 PM, Sperm Edwards said:

 

Mangold was drafted at the very bottom of round 1 - pick #29, a whopping four picks away from being in round 2 - not inside the top 10. The HOF center we had before him was originally drafted in that range (#36 overall). The best young center in the game from last year's draft went way down at #63 to KC while people were convinced he represented value in the mid-20s. And it's harder to replace a young receiver like Moore than a young iOLman like Humphrey. Meanwhile Humphrey is a 320-pound tank.

With his team fielding the #32 defense, if this melonhead drafts a 280-290 pound center in (or even near) the top 10 overall picks in the draft, when he's got a competent 28 year-old veteran center already under contract, returning in the same blocking system, it's a fireable offense. 

This team is far, far more in need of a game-changer (or 5) on defense than wasting a top 10 pick to upgrade from an average center to a prospect you hope will be an above average center. That magnitude of upgrade isn't worth anywhere near a top 10 overall pick, and it's questionable whether that level upgrade is even worth a top 10 pick in round 2. 

I will never understand where people get the idea that it's even loosely bordering on wisdom for a team to invest 3 top 15 overall picks on the OL in 3 consecutive drafts: a draft strategy employed by zero SB winners, SB losers, or even WC teams in NFL history. 

You take a player in the top 10 who keeps you from spending $20-25MM/year (even more if you're talking QB) on a veteran, at the type of position you typically need to find in the top 10 picks or trade multiple 1sts to grab one; not a $10-12MM/year veteran at a position where most probowlers come from rounds 2 or later (and a handful of the top 10-15 were from round 6 outright or undrafted).

  • Humphrey #63
  • Linsley #161
  • Kelce #191
  • Ragnow #18
    • Evan Brown undrafted (the guy filling in for Ragnow this year, and apparently isn't half bad)
  • Allen #111
  • Roullier #199
  • Tretter #122
  • Jensen #203
  • McGovern #144
  • B.Jones #99
  • Andrews undrafted
  • Bozeman #215
  • Paradis #207 (was great in Den, but blows since getting paid)
  • Biadasz #146 (terrible start this year, but hasn't allowed one pressure or hurry in over a month, nor a sack all season)

The track record for drafting a center in round 1 has been pretty bad over the last 4-5 years. Ragnow is the only one who's lived up to expectations.

As I said previously... With the second first since the seahawks will win a few more, and spoil the top ten/fifteen status of their/our pick, and only if he's really elite as advertised. I was unaware he was sub 300 lbs which is a red flag for me on the line. With regard to a track record and drafting players at a position... I forgot our D is loaded after drafting so many DL and DBs that went bust or never lived up to their draft position.... For context I'm also not taking a C if a stud LB who can do everything is there. I'm simply disagreeing with the idea that line is finished being built.

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8 minutes ago, Embrace the Suck said:

As I said previously... With the second first since the seahawks will win a few more, and spoil the top ten/fifteen status of their/our pick, and only if he's really elite as advertised. I was unaware he was sub 300 lbs which is a red flag for me on the line. With regard to a track record and drafting players at a position... I forgot our D is loaded after drafting so many DL and DBs that went bust or never lived up to their draft position.... For context I'm also not taking a C if a stud LB who can do everything is there. I'm simply disagreeing with the idea that line is finished being built.

I thought I read he had trouble keeping weight on. Naturally I'd expect that to be less of an issue as he gets well into his 20s. Brick had the same thing his first couple years where he'd drop under 290 himself. But then, Ferguson wasn't taking on 350 pound NTs.

From how highly people speak of him, I've little doubt he's phenomenally talented. But his slight build (compared to most) and the reality that he's just a center, make me hold my nose if they're even thinking of taking him inside the top 15.

Also I think there's an assumption that because he plays on the OL it's therefore a much safer pick than other positions. In practice, these round 1 centers rarely live up to expectations. Ragnow's the only one in over a decade, and what's crazier is the team's not even decidedly worse off with his backup. Before him the last top 20-ish drafted center that was truly elite was Alex Mack (taken with our pick I think after we moved way up for Sanchez), taken at #21 like a dozen years ago. There are more busts than those reaching expectations when you're talking #20-ish overall pick centers. 

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Jets' Rooting Guide for 2021 NFL Draft Implications of Week 14

JOE TANSEYDECEMBER 10, 20211

 

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Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

New York Jets fans should have their sights set on Houston in Week 14.

The Houston Texans host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in a game that will significantly affect the first-round order of the 2022 NFL draft.

Houston sits one spot above the Jets at No. 3. A Texans win combined with a Jets loss to the New Orleans Saints could shift that order.

A Seattle win does the Jets no good because it would keep Houston at No. 3 and move the Seahawks, whose first-round pick belongs to New York, down the projected order.

Jets fans should also have their eyes on the two games that affect the pair of selections owned by the New York Giants. The Giants visit the Los Angeles Chargers, while the Chicago Bears take on the Green Bay Packers.

The Giants have the Bears' first-round selection. Wins by either the Bears or Giants seem unlikely, but that would set up the best-case scenario for the Jets' draft position coming out of Week 14.

 

Texans over Seahawks

1 OF 3

 

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Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

The Jets need both the Seahawks and Texans to struggle over the final five weeks of the regular season.

Seattle has the likelier chance to end the campaign with a few victories since it hosts the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions in consecutive weeks.

Houston still has to play the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that is the only win that could be left on its schedule after Sunday.

The Texans have a chance to win two games in a row, which would be the ideal situation for the Jets to try and move into the top three. Houston closes the season with games against the Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans, all of which should be losses.

Weeks 14 and 15 present the last time in which a team could jump out of the top three and allow the Jets to slide into those positions. If the Jets keep losing and Houston comes up with two wins, the draft dynamic beneath the Detroit Lions will change.

Giants over Chargers

2 OF 3

 

hi-res-a4b8338080cc21d7a6d32432100a6149_
Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

The Jets would love for their closest rival to fall down the draft order.

The Giants have not played well of late, but there is always the chance for an upset to happen.

New York will have no pressure on it inside SoFi Stadium on Sunday since the Los Angeles Chargers are in the thick of a divisional and wild-card race.

Los Angeles could have its guard down against the Giants since the NFC East side is dealing with injury issues at quarterback.

Jake Fromm has been taking first-team reps for the Giants since Daniel Jones has not been cleared to play and Mike Glennon is in concussion protocol.

Giants head coach Joe Judge was hopeful that Glennon would be cleared to play Sunday, per Michael Eisen of the team's website.

The Chargers are in the perfect letdown spot after they earned a vital win in the AFC wild-card race over the Cincinnati Bengals. They could also be looking ahead to the Thursday night clash with the Kansas City Chiefs.

A Giants win seems improbable, but an upset would likely move them down in the draft order from No. 7.

 
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Do you take a center with a top 10 pick or grab edge, CB or OT?  Was fine with Linderbaum when I thought the pick would be in the mid/late teens.  If it's in the top 8 or 10?  Nah.
If you think the center could be the next mangold I don't think you hesitate. Tricking yourself into thinking you need to draft one position at a certain spot and passing on a player you believe could be great for your franchise for the next 12 years is how bad teams build imo.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

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On 12/11/2021 at 12:08 AM, bealeb319 said:

If you think the center could be the next mangold I don't think you hesitate. Tricking yourself into thinking you need to draft one position at a certain spot and passing on a player you believe could be great for your franchise for the next 12 years is how bad teams build imo.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Given the choice, I go for the premium positions in round 1 and get another center at some point.  Some good ones in this class.  I like Lindstrom from BC.  If you grab a legit edge rusher, an elite OT to pair with Becton and Lindstrom?  I'd do it.

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On 12/10/2021 at 7:08 PM, bealeb319 said:

If you think the center could be the next mangold I don't think you hesitate. Tricking yourself into thinking you need to draft one position at a certain spot and passing on a player you believe could be great for your franchise for the next 12 years is how bad teams build imo.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app
 

We all have our imos, but imo using ultra-premium resources on decidedly not-premium positions is how bad teams build.

If he pans out exactly as you hope, and no less than that, the pick would only be favorable when compared to a major disappointment taken instead. 

A center isn’t the straw that stirs the drink for successful QBs (and, in turn, successful franchises). That’s why nobody touches one in the top half of round 1. 

And given his size, compared to most of today’s good/great young centers, he’s no guarantee’d stud himself. We’ll never know until it happens, but because of his stature and position I’d be surprised to see any team pull the trigger on him before pick 18-20 (depending on a marriage of need and draft slot), and would be unsurprised to see him slip out of round 1 outright. Nobody burns a 1st round pick on a ~285-pound offensive lineman anymore (let alone at center). 

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Drafting a center in the top 10 is like…

Say someone lives in a trailer and drives a 5 year-old Accord. It’s unsexy, it’s not going to last forever, but it’s mostly reliable and has been driving fine of late, and anyway there’s still another year left on its 72-month lease. Then after inheriting a decent bit of money, said trailer resident then spends $150K to make an upgrade...to a new C-class Mercedes.

Sure, with the benefit of hindsight that Mercedes will be of immensely greater long term use than a high-priced lemon he didn’t buy. It’ll also probably last longer than that older Accord, too. The problem is it’s still a preposterous overpayment and the better-still move would’ve been to keep the mostly-reliable car he already had and put that money towards something that positively impacts his life far more.

Like upgrading from living in the f***ing s***hole trailer that is the NYJ defense.

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On 12/8/2021 at 2:59 PM, AFJF said:

Do you take a center with a top 10 pick or grab edge, CB or OT?  Was fine with Linderbaum when I thought the pick would be in the mid/late teens.  If it's in the top 8 or 10?  Nah.

Take the best wr in the draft.  I want me a devante adams!

 

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6 minutes ago, whodeawhodat said:

Take the best wr in the draft.  I want me a devante adams!

 

Not for me, thanks.  Bring back Cole with Moore and Davis as your 1-2 punch.  Add a TE or two in FA and snag a WR in the middle/late rounds.  Premium picks all have to be spent on defense or OT.

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8 minutes ago, whodeawhodat said:

Take the best wr in the draft.  I want me a devante adams!

 

Davante Adams is actually scheduled to be a free agent. Doubt it actually happens but if it does and the powers that be believe Wilson is the guy they ought to write that man a blank check and do whatever else they need to make him a NYJ.

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10 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Drafting a center in the top 10 is like…

Say someone lives in a trailer and drives a 5 year-old Accord. It’s unsexy, it’s not going to last forever, but it’s mostly reliable and has been driving fine of late, and anyway there’s still another year left on its 72-month lease. Then after inheriting a decent bit of money, said trailer resident then spends $150K to make an upgrade...to a new C-class Mercedes.

Sure, with the benefit of hindsight that Mercedes will be of immensely greater long term use than a high-priced lemon he didn’t buy. It’ll also probably last longer than that older Accord, too. The problem is it’s still a preposterous overpayment and the better-still move would’ve been to keep the mostly-reliable car he already had and put that money towards something that positively impacts his life far more.

Like upgrading from living in the f***ing s***hole trailer that is the NYJ defense.

Agreed.  It’s about how much value-add drafting a center that high gives you.  McGovern hasn’t played poorly this year, in fact he’s been good.  So just how much are you improving and moving the needle by investing in drafting Linderbaum that high?  It’s a minimal upgrade at best.  This team needs speed and athletes, that’s where the investments should go.   Speed off the edge, speed at LBer, speed at WR.   If you do want to go O-line it should be for a tackle and one that you can possibly move around.   Linderbaum is only a center, a very good one, but doesnt  offer versatility.   

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Given the choice, I go for the premium positions in round 1 and get another center at some point.  Some good ones in this class.  I like Lindstrom from BC.  If you grab a legit edge rusher, an elite OT to pair with Becton and Lindstrom?  I'd do it.
No doubt if you can grab an elite edge rusher or ot that outweighs center but outside of Neal I don't know if there is a tackle I would draft as high as we are set to pick right now. I could definatly see us ending up with a blue chip edge rushing prospect this year.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using JetNation.com mobile app

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28 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Not for me, thanks.  Bring back Cole with Moore and Davis as your 1-2 punch.  Add a TE or two in FA and snag a WR in the middle/late rounds.  Premium picks all have to be spent on defense or OT.

wow, you like what you have seen from davis?

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27 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Davante Adams is actually scheduled to be a free agent. Doubt it actually happens but if it does and the powers that be believe Wilson is the guy they ought to write that man a blank check and do whatever else they need to make him a NYJ.

QFT

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3 minutes ago, whodeawhodat said:

wow, you like what you have seen from davis?

His struggles are an aberration IMO.  Was trending upward in almost every aspect of his game before this season.  Sometimes good players have bad stretches.  No reason to believe he'll have these issues again next season.  And it's not as if he didn't do anything well.  Probably finishes the season at around 1,000 yards and 8 TD's if he stays healthy.

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On 12/8/2021 at 3:13 PM, JiFapono said:

Agreed, I think the Jets probably beat the Jags and pick 3 or 4.  As it looks now, I'd probably go best edge/or Stingley and I'd love Williams as the 2nd pick, that kid is special. 

You would take Stingley based on his play in 2019?  I don't think I want to use a top pick on a player that hasn't played a meaningful down in a long time.  It's ok to gamble on talent in later rounds, but with a top 10-15 pick?  I'd rather use it somewhere else on someone else.  

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On 12/8/2021 at 4:19 PM, rangerous said:

these early projections are pretty meaningless.  teams are going to be looking for real impact in the first round and that means qb or edge or corner or wr.  the beef is going to be picked up later.  this isn't to say he won't go in the first round just after other skill type positions are exhausted.

the jets cant mess this draft up they have a tune of  holes QB T G RG  T CB LB 

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