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Kiper moves Hutchinson to #1 overall


Scott Dierking
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45 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

For every good brilliant financier you have sh*tty ones as well.

Unless perhaps I am wrong and like pro sports execs all of them are awesome and never screw up.

I actually agree with your original point. There are a handful of posters here who would do just as well or better than the Jets GMs in drafting. The biggest mistakes appear to be made when GM's decide to go off on an angle and outsmart their peers by picking some obscure or lower valued player because of some genius scouting report. Posters here go with the obvious guy hanging out there for all the world to see and scratch their heads when he's passed up. And then turns out to be a solid player, while obscure guy is flailing on the practice squad on his way to MacDonald's. I get that system fits matter to GM's, but it's amazing how a professional organization training to pick football talent can go so wrong. They're like Vizzini in Princess Bride with similar results.

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5 hours ago, Barton said:

This team needs playmakers on offense. Gotta find a top flight TE and/or WR in free agency or the draft. 

Fully agreed.  Problem is the top 10 picks don't look like they have much in the way of WR's or TE's.  Though of course that could easily change and I don't know much at all about the prospects yet.  

My preference would be to use our first pick on an EDGE guy and maybe trade down with the other 1st round pick (maybe try to get a 2023 first rounder out of the deal?) then shoot for a TE/WR/G in the area of the draft we trade down to.  

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5 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I mean, it's easy to keep trucking when there's no accountability for being right.

I guess, but with social media keeping track of things, there will always be heavy criticism after the fact.  Not enough to get him fired, of course, but enough to keep his credibility in check. 

And in any case Kiper's primary job isn't to get stuff right.  It's to try to generate interest in the draft year round.  And he's certainly played a role in helping to make the draft a big deal. 

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8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I guess, but with social media keeping track of things, there will always be heavy criticism after the fact.  Not enough to get him fired, of course, but enough to keep his credibility in check. 

And in any case Kiper's primary job isn't to get stuff right.  It's to try to generate interest in the draft year round.  And he's certainly played a role in helping to make the draft a big deal. 

Agreed.  Plus when you give opinions and projections on as many players per year that Kiper has, you aren’t going to be right all of the time.  It’s the nature of the business.   If you really look at it, an NFL GM is being graded and critiqued on maybe 7-12 players per draft class, Kiper and the other draft prognosticators are being critiqued on hundreds of players per year.   

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8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I guess, but with social media keeping track of things, there will always be heavy criticism after the fact.  Not enough to get him fired, of course, but enough to keep his credibility in check. 

And in any case Kiper's primary job isn't to get stuff right.  It's to try to generate interest in the draft year round.  And he's certainly played a role in helping to make the draft a big deal. 

Yeah, but you were comparing him directly with an NFL GM.

GMs actually have to make the picks. They need to choose players and forego others to do so and if they get it wrong they'll get fired.

Mike Maccagnan could just post his big board and mock drafts -- are we sure it looks different than Kipers? Kiper had Jamal Adams as the third best player in the draft.

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3 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Agreed.  Plus when you give opinions and projections on as many players per year that Kiper has, you aren’t going to be right all of the time.  It’s the nature of the business.   If you really look at it, an NFL GM is being graded and critiqued on maybe 7-12 players per draft class, Kiper and the other draft prognosticators are being critiqued on hundreds of players per year.   

This argument actually favors being kinder to GMs because we're grading them on a much, much smaller sample size.

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2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

This argument actually favors being kinder to GMs because we're grading them on a much, much smaller sample size.

True.  It’s not like Joe Douglas (or any other GM) comes out and tells us his opinions for months and months leading up to the draft on hundreds of prospects each year.  

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8 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Yeah, but you were comparing him directly with an NFL GM.

GMs actually have to make the picks. They need to choose players and forego others to do so and if they get it wrong they'll get fired.

Mike Maccagnan could just post his big board and mock drafts -- are we sure it looks different than Kipers? Kiper had Jamal Adams as the third best player in the draft.

That's fair, and I'm not saying Kiper's job is anywhere close to as difficult as a GM's.  But if you're a GM you should know better than to be openly critical of Kiper, because again, his primary job is to help get the draft attention, I.E. indirectly bring in more money for the league.  If you're sensitive about Kiper ripping your draft picks, you're probably too thin-skinned to handle the big job of being a GM.

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Draft a QB. Not kidding. You keep drafting one until you find an elite guy. It’s probably 70% of your team right there. If you find that guy, good and trade away the other bum (whoever that is). 

When was the last time these edge rushers and DL won us a game? Any game?

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That's fair, and I'm not saying Kiper's job is anywhere close to as difficult as a GM's.  But if you're a GM you should know better than to be openly critical of Kiper, because again, his primary job is to help get the draft attention, I.E. indirectly bring in more money for the league.  If you're sensitive about Kiper ripping your draft picks, you're probably too thin-skinned to handle the big job of being a GM.

Right, my only point was that it's a tough comparison because actually making the picks is much harder and leads to tougher scrutiny.

Completely agree that a GM going after Kiper is hilarious and embarrassing though. Would LOVE if that happened today, would beamazing. Shows how much the landscape has changed. Now there are 10k random dudes out there doing mocks and assigning draft "grades."

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I guess, but with social media keeping track of things, there will always be heavy criticism after the fact.  Not enough to get him fired, of course, but enough to keep his credibility in check. 

And in any case Kiper's primary job isn't to get stuff right.  It's to try to generate interest in the draft year round.  And he's certainly played a role in helping to make the draft a big deal. 

Draft experts are trailing indicators. Their goal is to predict which team will pick whom, not necessarily to say who will be a hit or a bust.

Also, it's easy to disagree with Kiper on a guy or two you really know well and feel strongly about. You might even have a better hit rate than him. But try predicting every draftable player and see where your hit rate lands.

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52 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

I think the Mafia forum is spilling over into where the normal folk post

And this is exactly why a lot more people here need to play Mafia.  I think they don't realize the game is 90 % about the insults, 2 % gameplay, and the rest is complaining about the mod (which of course overlaps into the "insults" pile).  

Maybe if we marketed it by using some of the insults "greatest hits" in Mafia history we'd get more interest...

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44 minutes ago, jgb said:

Draft experts are trailing indicators. Their goal is to predict which team will pick whom, not necessarily to say who will be a hit or a bust.

Also, it's easy to disagree with Kiper on a guy or two you really know well and feel strongly about. You might even have a better hit rate than him. But try predicting every draftable player and see where your hit rate lands.

Yep.  There's a reason front offices don't ever publish their big boards, past or present.  They certainly have to rank every player on their board but they absolutely don't want anyone to see them.  Cowards!

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3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And this is exactly why a lot more people here need to play Mafia.  I think they don't realize the game is 90 % about the insults, 2 % gameplay, and the rest is complaining about the mod (which of course overlaps into the "insults" pile).  

Maybe if we marketed it by using some of the insults "greatest hits" in Mafia history we'd get more interest...

Maybe I'll give my toilet a break and come dump on you morons in the next Mafia game

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4 hours ago, Jet2020 said:

Draft a QB. Not kidding. You keep drafting one until you find an elite guy. It’s probably 70% of your team right there. If you find that guy, good and trade away the other bum (whoever that is). 

When was the last time these edge rushers and DL won us a game? Any game?

Pass rushers did win the Broncos and Giants rings.

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4 hours ago, jgb said:

Draft experts are trailing indicators. Their goal is to predict which team will pick whom, not necessarily to say who will be a hit or a bust.

Also, it's easy to disagree with Kiper on a guy or two you really know well and feel strongly about. You might even have a better hit rate than him. But try predicting every draftable player and see where your hit rate lands.

Good post here.  What started as interest in identifying good prospects has become an information warfare game of who wants whom.  Many of the top sites reward/praise those who accurately predicted who to where.  If they really wanted to measure Kiper, or any GM, an owner or any of us, would take their big board and evaluate after three, five and ten years.  Who consistently had the players ranked as starters, all-pros, potential HOF.  I acknowledge there is a strong correlation with the coaching situation and team culture that plays a role in this as well.  

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9 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

I actually agree with your original point. There are a handful of posters here who would do just as well or better than the Jets GMs in drafting. The biggest mistakes appear to be made when GM's decide to go off on an angle and outsmart their peers by picking some obscure or lower valued player because of some genius scouting report. Posters here go with the obvious guy hanging out there for all the world to see and scratch their heads when he's passed up. And then turns out to be a solid player, while obscure guy is flailing on the practice squad on his way to MacDonald's. I get that system fits matter to GM's, but it's amazing how a professional organization training to pick football talent can go so wrong. They're like Vizzini in Princess Bride with similar results.

Well said...that's why I don't trust JD at all with this upcoming wealth of picks...Perine, Zuniga, Ashtyn Davis, Morgan for starters.

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3 hours ago, Jet2020 said:

Remind me again who their QBs were? 

A capable but slightly overrated Eli Manning and a completely broken down, shell-of-himself version of his older brother? 

Eli certainly played great in his SB runs but he’s not exactly on the level of other SB-winning QBs of his era, like Rodgers and Brees.  In each of those SB wins, the common denominator was elite bookend EDGE guys who wreaked havoc on Brady.  

Eli will likely reach the HOF, and I think he deserves it, but don’t be surprised if he isn’t a 1st ballot guy. 

And the Denver defense carried Peyton completely to that final SB win.  He was like the 28th ranked QB that year or something. 

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