Zack Wilson take from Fins Fan

[Jetsfan80]

I don't watch enough of Mac Jones to be able to say with any certainty how strong his arm is.  But he is 16th in the NFL in Intended Air Yards per Attempt, 19th in Completed Air Yards per Completion, and 15th in Completed Air Yards per Attempt.  That seems decent to me.  

Zach Wilson is 14th, 10th, and 22nd in those categories, respectively.  Obviously better overall and he indeed has a good arm, but the numbers seem to suggest Jones is about average in arm strength/deep ball accuracy, and the gap between the 2 isn't nearly as wide as Wilsonites would like to believe.  "Pop gun arm" seems to me to be an unfair critique for Jones.

[Sonny Werblin]

Lots to digest here. . . . 

Here is my bottom line, at the current time, on Zach Wilson. Considering his rookie status from a school that did not play top level competition; the untimely death of his QB coach with the Jets; the fact that he has a rookie OC installing a new offense with many players who are playing with each other the first time; the lack of a run game; and that GVR single-handedly blew up more plays in half a season than most RGs do in a career….  Even considering all of these things, he has played poorly. His two biggest problems IMO are his inaccuracy and the fact that he appears to be a beat (sometimes two beats) behind the play call.

Both of these things can be fixed. Poor fundamentals and footwork are the cause of his accuracy issues. His timing problems are because he has yet to adjust to NFL speed. They really should have sat him for a year, but in today’s nfl that is rarely done. Anyway, at least the kid seems to have a work ethic and desire. Can he fix these problems? Damned if I know? I certainly hope he can.

Regardless, this team has way bigger problems than QB. It needs defensive players who can stop the run and pressure the QB; an O line that can create a productive Run game; a #1 WR; a quality TE; and more. It is pretty apparent that JD and Saleh will be given 2 or 3 more years to build the team. My hope is that regardless of Zach Wilson’s progress the rest of the team progresses to become playoff quality. Then, a quality vet or rookie QB can be given the reigns, and if a rookie, there will not be any built in excuses for his lack of progress.

[jgb]

27 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't watch enough of Mac Jones to be able to say with any certainty how strong his arm is.  But he is 16th in the NFL in Intended Air Yards per Attempt, 19th in Completed Air Yards per Completion, and 15th in Completed Air Yards per Attempt.  That seems decent to me.  

Zach Wilson is 14th, 10th, and 22nd in those categories, respectively.  Obviously better overall and he indeed has a good arm, but the numbers seem to suggest Jones is about average in arm strength/deep ball accuracy, and the gap between the 2 isn't nearly as wide as Wilsonites would like to believe.  "Pop gun arm" seems to me to be an unfair critique for Jones.

"Yeah well Wilson is better in some of these stats so you must admit he's a good QB!!"

If that was the point I was making about Jones, sure. But it's not. I presented these stats to show Mac is not "post-op Chad Pennington."

I never argued that Zach has a weak arm. 

Classic strawmanning.

[jetspenguin]

Why do we care what a dolphin's fan thinks?

Ijs

Sent from the NY Jets /Zack Wilson Suicide Watch desk.

[McNeil]

Precisely, well said and thank you for illuminating those in here who never gave Zach a chance. Or worse yet those who were all about him but then turned on him a few short games in to his rookie campaign. As a QB who came outta college early, too.

Paraphrasing George Patton: basically all of the Zach haters in here know less about QB'ing than they do about fornicating - i.e. nothing.

[Jetsfan80]

59 minutes ago, McNeil said:

Precisely, well said and thank you for illuminating those in here who never gave Zach a chance. Or worse yet those who were all about him but then turned on him a few short games in to his rookie campaign. As a QB who came outta college early, too.

Paraphrasing George Patton: basically all of the Zach haters in here know less about QB'ing than they do about fornicating - i.e. nothing.

Yes, those of us saying that Zach Wilson being the 32nd rated QB in the league is bad are the ones who know "nothing".  

He's performing worse in his rookie year than an even more raw and less supported Sam Darnold did.  That's also bad.  I sure am dumb for pointing that out.  

[jgb]

2 hours ago, McNeil said:

Precisely, well said and thank you for illuminating those in here who never gave Zach a chance. Or worse yet those who were all about him but then turned on him a few short games in to his rookie campaign. As a QB who came outta college early, too.

Paraphrasing George Patton: basically all of the Zach haters in here know less about QB'ing than they do about fornicating - i.e. nothing.

We've presented a mountain of data and statistics. @Jetsfan80 has compiled a long list of QBs who started their careers poorly and never become starting-caliber QBs. On the other side, those that support Wilson have: Josh Allen, some understandable hope as Jets fans, unproven and unproveable assertion (e.g., "Mac Jones would look terrible here, also") and other anecdotal evidence (e.g., "flashes"). There is no comparison between the two camps in the sheer amount of work, data parsing, and analysis that has gone into this. If anyone has a data-driven case to support the optimistic view of Zach's future prospects, I would love to see it. But it simply has not been presented. Instead, they challenge the objectivity of those that compile the data or accuse those that present it of bad faith or ill intent toward the Jets and/or Zach Wilson. This is Mims-level effort. All the while remaining unable or unwilling to offer their own substantive case as an alternative.

While it is true that no one can know with certainty what his future will be, some conclusions can be drawn about the probabilities of his possible outcomes based on the arguments presented by both sides. Personally, I find the data-side compelling -- in fact, undeniably so -- that the odds of Zach becoming a good player are slim and have been trending slimmer since he entered the league.

Both sides are entitled to their opinions. However, if Zach Wilson was a Dolphin or a Patriot, there would be near-universal alignment on JN that he is a bad QB that will likely stay bad. Heck, some of Zach's most ardent supporters also happen to be vocal critics of Mac and Tua, both of whom vastly outperformed Zach as rookies and it's not close. It is also interesting that there is significant correlation between the loudest voices in favor or Zach and those that engaged in the same behavior in defense of Darnold. It is fair that there is also a strong correlation in the opposite direction but consider (1) we were right about Sam; and (2) we only go where the data leads us. It is not personal for us. We all want him to succeed and win 5 rings. Can it really be said it's not personal for you?

So forgive me, but posts like yours seem to be a classic case of applying a different standard to an opposing opinion than you do to your own. If you had a ticket that would pay $1 million dollars would you rather it be a "Zach busts" ticket or a "Zach becomes a franchise QB" ticket? I suspect that the choice of many would not follow their stated positions here. And to think, we are accused of advancing a bad faith argument. I'm sorry but we've done the work, analyzed the data, and have a basic respect for truth even when it is undesirable.

There is no crime in hope. Even unreasonable hope when it comes to low-importance (in the context of life) things like sports. But there is also no crime in skepticism, especially when it is so thoroughly supported by a painstaking compilation and analysis of the data. If you think we're using the wrong data or have analyzed it incorrectly, give us your alternative. That is how to make -- and win -- an argument.

 

[BRONX DUDE]

13 hours ago, dolphann4life said:

So did Tua lol It’s different in the NFL. Surely you’re not saying Macs arm talent is equal to Zachs are you? 

 

13 hours ago, dolphann4life said:

Ok fair enough. Can I ask your view on Tua? He’s currently 2nd in deep ball accuracy. Over the last 6 weeks he also had the most 50+ yard pass plays. Do you consider tua a deep ball passer? 

How ffffing boring has this season become???

We are chatting how baaaaaaaad  Zack is with Fish Fanatics!!!!

 

WHOA !!!!!

[TuscanyTile2]

I hope Zach turns it around next year but I'm definitely pessimistic right now.  You'd think we'd luck into a good QB at some point.  Hack couldn't get on the field, we probably ruined Sam, and Zach is the 32nd ranked QB right now.

[Fantasy Island]

14 hours ago, jgb said:

It's a real pity that Moore went down when he did right as Zach was coming back. With Davis shut down and Mims being terrible at football, Moore is the one guy on the roster with the athletic talent to consistently get behind secondaries.

All the players Joey D drafts goes down.   Duh!

[Fantasy Island]

Fields to Moore, oh what could have been......

[rtnelson]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't watch enough of Mac Jones to be able to say with any certainty how strong his arm is.  But he is 16th in the NFL in Intended Air Yards per Attempt, 19th in Completed Air Yards per Completion, and 15th in Completed Air Yards per Attempt.  That seems decent to me.  

Zach Wilson is 14th, 10th, and 22nd in those categories, respectively.  Obviously better overall and he indeed has a good arm, but the numbers seem to suggest Jones is about average in arm strength/deep ball accuracy, and the gap between the 2 isn't nearly as wide as Wilsonites would like to believe.  "Pop gun arm" seems to me to be an unfair critique for Jones.

Jones is good.  But I think if Zach went to the Pats and Jones was here, we would be saying Zach is better.

That maturity of the Pats' offense as a whole just makes things exponentially easier on the QB.  They baby stepped Jones into the system living and dying by dinks and dunks.  As he's matured in the system with things working around him the play calling has opened up more.  I think Zach could have achieved similar results if given the same situation, albeit maybe a bit slower in picking up steam.

If Jones were here he would have been shredded early in the season but perhaps been Mike White'ing a little better and earlier as the rookie OC figured things out.

Mac was definitely more prepared at the start of the season, and it's been a head start in development.  Zach is essentially where Mac was to start the year, or 3-4 games in.

Jones is good but in the same way that Lawrence and Fields also struggling, it's not an indictment on Zach.

[Maxman]

15 hours ago, jgb said:

Contrary to the dink and dunk narrative, Jones has a:

• higher YPA than Brady
• higher Intended Air Yards Per Attempt than Mahomes
• higher Completed Air Yards Per Completion than Aaron Rodgers
• higher QBR than Russell Wilson

All while being supported by less YAC Per Completion than all of them -- which may have something to do with Mac Jones' top 2 receivers being UDFAs (no weaponinz!!).

Cool, a Dolphin fan comes in to praise Zach Wilson and you post 100 times in here telling us why he is wrong. Long live Mac Jones. SMH.

[Smashmouth]

Maybe he escapes from the QB room everyday

[Biggs]

9 hours ago, McNeil said:

Precisely, well said and thank you for illuminating those in here who never gave Zach a chance. Or worse yet those who were all about him but then turned on him a few short games in to his rookie campaign. As a QB who came outta college early, too.

Paraphrasing George Patton: basically all of the Zach haters in here know less about QB'ing than they do about fornicating - i.e. nothing.

I’m pro Zach.   The more I watch him the more Prozac I need. 
 

Seriously good post but you left out one piece.  The pro Zach crowd know less about QB than they do about fairy dust.  

[jgb]

7 hours ago, Maxman said:

Cool, a Dolphin fan comes in to praise Zach Wilson and you post 100 times in here telling us why he is wrong. Long live Mac Jones. SMH.

I didn’t make the Jets be bad, Max. Nor did I say anything close to "long live Mac Jones." I'm responding to the constant "analysis" that Mac Jones is a "dink and dunker," which he simply is not. Merry Christmas.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Irish Jet said:

This is no longer a safe thread for me.

Same here. Not many are.

[jetspenguin]

We've presented a mountain of data and statistics. [mention=5406]Jetsfan80[/mention] has compiled a long list of QBs who started their careers poorly and never become starting-caliber QBs. On the other side, those that support Wilson have: Josh Allen, some understandable hope as Jets fans, unproven and unproveable assertion (e.g., "Mac Jones would look terrible here, also") and other anecdotal evidence (e.g., "flashes"). There is no comparison between the two camps in the sheer amount of work, data parsing, and analysis that has gone into this. If anyone has a data-driven case to support the optimistic view of Zach's future prospects, I would love to see it. But it simply has not been presented. Instead, they challenge the objectivity of those that compile the data or accuse those that present it of bad faith or ill intent toward the Jets and/or Zach Wilson. This is Mims-level effort. All the while remaining unable or unwilling to offer their own substantive case as an alternative.
While it is true that no one can know with certainty what his future will be, some conclusions can be drawn about the probabilities of his possible outcomes based on the arguments presented by both sides. Personally, I find the data-side compelling -- in fact, undeniably so -- that the odds of Zach becoming a good player are slim and have been trending slimmer since he entered the league.
Both sides are entitled to their opinions. However, if Zach Wilson was a Dolphin or a Patriot, there would be near-universal alignment on JN that he is a bad QB that will likely stay bad. Heck, some of Zach's most ardent supporters also happen to be vocal critics of Mac and Tua, both of whom vastly outperformed Zach as rookies and it's not close. It is also interesting that there is significant correlation between the loudest voices in favor or Zach and those that engaged in the same behavior in defense of Darnold. It is fair that there is also a strong correlation in the opposite direction but consider (1) we were right about Sam; and (2) we only go where the data leads us. It is not personal for us. We all want him to succeed and win 5 rings. Can it really be said it's not personal for you?
So forgive me, but posts like yours seem to be a classic case of applying a different standard to an opposing opinion than you do to your own. If you had a ticket that would pay $1 million dollars would you rather it be a "Zach busts" ticket or a "Zach becomes a franchise QB" ticket? I suspect that the choice of many would not follow their stated positions here. And to think, we are accused of advancing a bad faith argument. I'm sorry but we've done the work, analyzed the data, and have a basic respect for truth even when it is undesirable.
There is no crime in hope. Even unreasonable hope when it comes to low-importance (in the context of life) things like sports. But there is also no crime in skepticism, especially when it is so thoroughly supported by a painstaking compilation and analysis of the data. If you think we're using the wrong data or have analyzed it incorrectly, give us your alternative. That is how to make -- and win -- an argument.
 

Yeah...............uhhhmmmmm.........vague. gonna plagiarize this on a pretty regular basis. 
 
Get used to it

[JustInFudge]

Dink and dunk punk!!!

[slimjasi]

Longest TD run in Jets QB history 

 

With any luck (for a change), maybe this can be the first of many jets records that he breaks. 

[Rangers9]

Actually Trevor Lawrence also had a great run along the sideline that set up a potential game winning Td. 

[RoadFan]

1 hour ago, Rangers9 said:

Actually Trevor Lawrence also had a great run along the sideline that set up a potential game winning Td. 

He could have, and should have tried to score.  

[TuscanyTile2]

For the record, I wouldn't trade Zach for Mac (assuming we were given the opportunity) based on both Zach's upside plus my belief that Mac has a limited ceiling.  I'd absolutely trade Zach for TL though.

[Doggin94it]

On 12/21/2021 at 7:33 AM, jgb said:

I didn’t make the Jets be bad, Max. Nor did I say anything close to "long live Mac Jones." I'm responding to the constant "analysis" that Mac Jones is a "dink and dunker," which he simply is not. Merry Christmas.

5.7ypa in December

[Awesumtenor]

On 12/20/2021 at 9:28 AM, The Crusher said:

Jones is already in complete and total control of that offense and that’s impressive. Yet, he had a couple throws last game that just didn’t have the zip on the ball to get their on time or one at the distance it needed. Dude has some of the nicest short term accuracy and anticipation I seem of anyone coming out in quite the while. The long game improved for Brady as time went in so it might for Jones as well. If he really had a strong arm with everything else he posses  he would have been the number one overall pick. Kid has a better understanding of the WBs  than any other guy coming out but his arm simply isn’t there yet. Zach? He just stinks right now. Not even comparable yet 

Given Saban has borrowed liberally from Belichik’s playbook, a lot of what he has been asked to do are things he was already comfortable with from Alabama. It has taken longer but of late teams have been more successful in making him do the things at which he is weaker and taking from him the reads and routes he does well.

[The Crusher]

1 minute ago, Awesumtenor said:

Given Saban has borrowed liberally from Belichik’s playbook, a lot of what he has been asked to do are things he was already comfortable with from Alabama. It has taken longer but of late teams have been more successful in making him do the things at which he is weaker and taking from him the reads and routes he does well.

No shit right? F-ing Bills!

                -M. White