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Trade Back Speculation


nycdan
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A few things are different about this upcoming draft.

1) There aren't any 'must-draft' players this year

2) We aren't looking to draft a QB (no matter what you think of Wilson, we aren't drafting a QB)

3) There isn't a glut of QBs looking like top-5 picks but a few could go in the 6-15 range

The combination of those speculations leads me to thinking that trading down is more realistic and beneficial than in most years.  Assume we are in the 4 and 8 holes when the draft rolls around.  Here are the teams that feel most likely to target a QB in the 1st round with their current draft positions:

3 - HOU

6 - CAR

9 - WFT

10 - ATL

11 - DEN

12 - MIN

14 - PHI

15 - NO

16 - PIT

Now looking at that glut of teams in the 9-16 range that should be thinking QB, I could see 3-4 QBs going in that range.  Corral, Pickett, Willis, Howell.  So picking at 8 vs. picking at 16, while 8 picks apart, might only see 4, or at most 5 position players go.  So it seems that there is extra value in trading down because you would get 3-4 extra slots of value as the QBs start getting picked ahead of our lower pick.

Say, for example, PHI wanted to move up to 8 to grab their choice of QB.  We go to 14.  That's probably worth their 2nd round pick.  In those 6 slots, 3 could be QBs meaning only 3 other players are drafted.  Looking at a list of guys who might be there at 8 include Ojabo, Linderbaum, Stingley, Hamilton, Leal, Ekwonu and Lloyd.  Assuming we grab Edge at the 4 slot, we can really afford to take any of those guys and we should have our choice of half of them.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

We already have so many picks, and early picks in this draft I hope we try and push capital into 2023 if we do trade down. We can't have another season with 10 rookies starting. We have to be winning games and competing for a playoff spot in 2022.

Totally agree, but having and extra 1 or 2 the following season would be great.

Remember, last year Philly went from 6 to 12 and picked up an extra first for the following year.

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2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

We already have so many picks, and early picks in this draft I hope we try and push capital into 2023 if we do trade down. We can't have another season with 10 rookies starting. We have to be winning games and competing for a playoff spot in 2022.

I agree but they could also probably spend ten day two picks on backups who could start year after next. Won’t happen but the team really needs better depth.

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2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

We already have so many picks, and early picks in this draft I hope we try and push capital into 2023 if we do trade down. We can't have another season with 10 rookies starting. We have to be winning games and competing for a playoff spot in 2022.

Always willing to take a first next year over a second this, but keep in mind this is likely a deeper draft than last or next year. Many went back to school instead of declaring amid the covid year. Might factor into it. 

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1 hour ago, derp said:

I agree but they could also probably spend ten day two picks on backups who could start year after next. Won’t happen but the team really needs better depth.

I wouldn't mind staying put with our two #1s and then packaging our 2s to move up for Linderbaum. So maybe Neal or Karlaftis, top WR on board or top guy that drops, and then Linderbaum. That would give us 3 top 15 players for next season. We can then grab depth in 3rd and 4th rounds.

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5 hours ago, nycdan said:

A few things are different about this upcoming draft.

1) There aren't any 'must-draft' players this year

2) We aren't looking to draft a QB (no matter what you think of Wilson, we aren't drafting a QB)

3) There isn't a glut of QBs looking like top-5 picks but a few could go in the 6-15 range

The combination of those speculations leads me to thinking that trading down is more realistic and beneficial than in most years.  Assume we are in the 4 and 8 holes when the draft rolls around.  Here are the teams that feel most likely to target a QB in the 1st round with their current draft positions:

3 - HOU

6 - CAR

9 - WFT

10 - ATL

11 - DEN

12 - MIN

14 - PHI

15 - NO

16 - PIT

Now looking at that glut of teams in the 9-16 range that should be thinking QB, I could see 3-4 QBs going in that range.  Corral, Pickett, Willis, Howell.  So picking at 8 vs. picking at 16, while 8 picks apart, might only see 4, or at most 5 position players go.  So it seems that there is extra value in trading down because you would get 3-4 extra slots of value as the QBs start getting picked ahead of our lower pick.

Say, for example, PHI wanted to move up to 8 to grab their choice of QB.  We go to 14.  That's probably worth their 2nd round pick.  In those 6 slots, 3 could be QBs meaning only 3 other players are drafted.  Looking at a list of guys who might be there at 8 include Ojabo, Linderbaum, Stingley, Hamilton, Leal, Ekwonu and Lloyd.  Assuming we grab Edge at the 4 slot, we can really afford to take any of those guys and we should have our choice of half of them.

 

 

Houston are going to roll with Davis Mills, he's been the best rookie QB this season in the NFL, so count them out of the QB stakes. 

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5 hours ago, nycdan said:

A few things are different about this upcoming draft.

1) There aren't any 'must-draft' players this year

2) We aren't looking to draft a QB (no matter what you think of Wilson, we aren't drafting a QB)

3) There isn't a glut of QBs looking like top-5 picks but a few could go in the 6-15 range

The combination of those speculations leads me to thinking that trading down is more realistic and beneficial than in most years.  Assume we are in the 4 and 8 holes when the draft rolls around.  Here are the teams that feel most likely to target a QB in the 1st round with their current draft positions:

3 - HOU

6 - CAR

9 - WFT

10 - ATL

11 - DEN

12 - MIN

14 - PHI

15 - NO

16 - PIT

Now looking at that glut of teams in the 9-16 range that should be thinking QB, I could see 3-4 QBs going in that range.  Corral, Pickett, Willis, Howell.  So picking at 8 vs. picking at 16, while 8 picks apart, might only see 4, or at most 5 position players go.  So it seems that there is extra value in trading down because you would get 3-4 extra slots of value as the QBs start getting picked ahead of our lower pick.

Say, for example, PHI wanted to move up to 8 to grab their choice of QB.  We go to 14.  That's probably worth their 2nd round pick.  In those 6 slots, 3 could be QBs meaning only 3 other players are drafted.  Looking at a list of guys who might be there at 8 include Ojabo, Linderbaum, Stingley, Hamilton, Leal, Ekwonu and Lloyd.  Assuming we grab Edge at the 4 slot, we can really afford to take any of those guys and we should have our choice of half of them.

 

 

Agree 100%.
 

trading the jamal pick for a second rounder would move us into the teens.

in the teens, were gonna grab more or less the same player as if we were picking 8th.

The extra 2 nd rounder will get us a starter

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1 hour ago, Greensleeves said:

I wouldn't mind staying put with our two #1s and then packaging our 2s to move up for Linderbaum. So maybe Neal or Karlaftis, top WR on board or top guy that drops, and then Linderbaum. That would give us 3 top 15 players for next season. We can then grab depth in 3rd and 4th rounds.

Noooo!

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On 12/27/2021 at 8:32 PM, HighPitch said:

Noooo!

can't just accumulate picks instead of drafting marquee players anymore - we need some veterans as well. I wouldn't be opposed to moving from 6 to the teens and grabbing another second rounder and still get who we want in the teens - Williams or a receiver or Linderbaum

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Always willing to take a first next year over a second this, but keep in mind this is likely a deeper draft than last or next year. Many went back to school instead of declaring amid the covid year. Might factor into it. 

yeah i thought the idea was this year was the loaded draft post lockdown.
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Pretty bummed there isn't any high end offensive weapons in this draft like last year.  From what I'm reading looks like lot's of edge and secondary talent at the top of the draft and it's a really weak WR and TE draft.  Hopefully Pickett, Howell or a few of these QBs start flying up the board so we can trade back and have multiple ones in 23 or one of the top ends drop.

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I think we have to work out how many legitimate first round talents there are in this draft before we trade back. We don't want to trade back into the middle part of the first round, for example, where the round two talents start. 

This draft is deep, no doubt, but it lacks top end talent. We're in a good spot, being able to pick actual first rounders with our first round picks, and having multiple second day picks. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, IntoTheGreen said:

I could be wrong. I'm only at the beginning of my pre-draft research. Some are sayings it's a weak class. I wont argue yet. 

It only matters if the draft is "loaded" at the spots we need and that appears to be the case.

Edge and TE both have a lot of excellent players and we need both.  Ive also read the safety class is pretty good, even after Hamilton, and we will need to address safety, likely in the second round.  

As for the original post - why did you say that moving from 8-14 would only generate a second round pick?  I think we would absolutely get more then that.  Setting aside the price, I think a lot will depend on how much hype Devin Lloyd gets as he would be an excellent pick in the 8-14 range, and it would be fantastic to get an extra 2nd this year and a 2nd in 2023 and still wind up with an elite LB at a position of need.

I wonder how the team looks at cap management though as say we do get an additional 2nd.  Because those guys are only on 4 year deals as opposed to 5 year deals for 1st rounders, if the players pan out, we could wind up with ZW, AVT and 2/3 2022 second rounders all being FA at the same time. 

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47 minutes ago, BCJet said:

It only matters if the draft is "loaded" at the spots we need and that appears to be the case.

Edge and TE both have a lot of excellent players and we need both.  Ive also read the safety class is pretty good, even after Hamilton, and we will need to address safety, likely in the second round.  

I agree. I hope we can get an elite EDGE in the top 5. Seattle's pick is a little no mans land for our needs. I wish there was a legit #1 WR talent this year. The class doesn't seem bad, but none are head and shoulders above and I'm not sure I'm comfortable picking any in the top 10. 

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With 4 picks in the top 40 we can maneuver up and down however we like to target players that can change our team. 

I don’t love any edge prospects after Hutchison and Kayvon enough to take them top 5 or even 10, so I’d look to keep building the offense through the draft and fix the defense and o line in UFA. Start with Jessie Bates, an absolute must get for this team.  Then maybe someone like Emmanuel Ogbah who won’t be too expensive, and can fill in at multiple d line positions like a cheap Michael Bennett. Plus Connor Williams who also won’t be expensive and is an easy starter on our o line. 
Now come draft time we can target skill positions and linebackers. Id look to add Jameson Williams and his game breaking speed with our 1st. Trade back Seattle’s pick to the late teens and acquire 2023 capital. Then select Devin Lloyd who I see going in that area come draft time. With the early 2s take a te, I prefer Wydermyer, plus a big body WR. I like Drake London provided he drops to the 2nd due to injury. So what 3 2nds and a top 5 pick on wrs in a three year span is too much, a receiving core featuring Elijah Moore, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Jalen Wydermyer, and Michael Carter is very balanced and fits Zach Wilson’s game very well. Regardless of how we acquire them. 

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16 hours ago, BCJet said:

 

As for the original post - why did you say that moving from 8-14 would only generate a second round pick?  I think we would absolutely get more then that.  Setting aside the price, I think a lot will depend on how much hype Devin Lloyd gets as he would be an excellent pick in the 8-14 range, and it would be fantastic to get an extra 2nd this year and a 2nd in 2023 and still wind up with an elite LB at a position of need.

 

Could get more.  That was a little above the value delta of 300 points on the old chart.  It really depends on one or more of the QBs getting 'sexier' as the draft rolls around.  That could drive a trade-up to get in front of the logjam of needy teams to be overpriced.  It does work out well for us that the logjam appears to be just south of where the SEA pick looks to land.

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On 12/30/2021 at 12:07 PM, Greenseed4 said:

I was pretty bummed to see us miss out on the top two “elite” Edge picks, but there are players with better production and comparable traits falling to mid-rounds.  Trading back, if only to recoup another 2nd rounder is 100% the way to go. 
 

I can definitely see a path to one of hutch/thib going to the jets. The jags don’t have much at OT and Neal looks to be a solid pick for them to protect Lawrence. They also already have 2 1st round edges on their roster with Allen and chaisson. As far as the lions, do you believe they will run with Goff instead of drafting a qb? The Texans have been playing well with mills and I can see them winning another game. If they do and we lose out that’ll put us at #3 with at least a fair shot at taking one of the edges. Even at #4 I can see one of the edges being there if neal and a qb go top 4, or even a cb. 

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This draft is pretty underwhelming. 
 

A dream scenario would be Trading up from 4 to 2, picking Hutch or Thibs then trading down from 6 to recoup most if not all of what we traded to move from 4->2. 
 

I think it’s possible but the key snag is that I don’t think Lions or Jags will want to trade out - maybe the Texans would cuz their roster is not only bad, it’s very old, but they are 3rd so that does us no good.

 

Damn if we lost to Jags on that last play that woulda been great. 

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56 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

If this  draft is so bad, and we know this on a message board, what makes you think there are teams lining up, to trade up? 

They may feel they need to get one elite talent before it's all dried up, if they feel there isnt much to offer in round one. 

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