Jets at the top of league on going for it on 4th down in situation the increase win percentage

[Rhg1084]

Nice to see Douglas and Saleh are buying into the analytics 

[Joe W. Namath]

Matt Burke is handling this.  Smart gm and smart coach doing smart things.  Love it!

 

[JohnnyLV]

Teams in general though are going for it WAY too often on 4th down inside the 10. They are costing themselves games by giving up a sure 3 points, especially early in games. Sure if you are around 45% analytics says over time you should be ahead but early points not only give up points but prevent momentum shifts when missed.

[slimjasi]

I've noticed this all year and I'm a big fan of it. 

Middelton was a little crazy this past week, but I have always been a go for it guy, especially in no man's land between long FG and short punt. 

[Jetsfan80]

26 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Teams in general though are going for it WAY too often on 4th down inside the 10. They are costing themselves games by giving up a sure 3 points, especially early in games. Sure if you are around 45% analytics says over time you should be ahead but early points not only give up points but prevent momentum shifts when missed.

Come on now.  If you don’t trust your kicker, going for it is a no brainer.  

[undertow]

I'm sure being down 25 in every game has something to do with it

[RutgersJetFan]

Kevin Kelley pioneered this when he was a high school coach. Loved it at the time and still do, but I question the 1-to-1 translation of it for the NFL. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

I like that we're aggressive on 4th down. As the offense gets better, we should definitely continue to do so when the analytics matches up for down, distance, and situation.

On another note, I feel like where teams are still behind on is going for 2-point conversions. I haven't looked at the data, but I wonder what the conversion rates have been and whether teams take that risk too early in games just for the benefit of tying the score early.

[RedBeardedSavage]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Come on now.  If you don’t trust your kicker, going for it is a no brainer.  

Yup, I think this statistic is more indicative of a terrible kicking game as opposed to any significant philosophical change. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, undertow said:

I'm sure being down 25 in every game has something to do with it

Your ability to take something that could at first be taken as a positive and douse it in gasoline warms my heart. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

I like that we're aggressive on 4th down. As the offense gets better, we should definitely continue to do so when the analytics matches up for down, distance, and situation.

On another note, I feel like where teams are still behind on is going for 2-point conversions. I haven't looked at the data, but I wonder what the conversion rates have been and whether teams take that risk too early in games just for the benefit of tying the score early.

Every team should be going for 2 every single time.  I’ll trust any NFL offense to draw up and execute a play to get 2 yards rather than ask a K to make a 32 yard kick for a measly 1 point. 

Convert 45+ % of your 2-point conversions and you come out ahead, since kickers miss lots of XPs these days.

[UntouchableCrew]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Every team should be going for 2 every single time.  I’ll trust any NFL offense to draw up and execute a play to get 2 yards rather than ask a K to make a 32 yard kick for a measly 1 point. 

Convert 45+ % of your 2-point conversions and you come out ahead, since kickers miss lots of XPs these days.

I'll never understand the move to push back PATs.

Supposedly the logic was that the XP was a meaningless play -- but does anyone really want a game decided on a missed XP?

[GreenFish]

This is promising from a. coaching perspective. Saleh really needs to work on his clock management though.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I'll never understand the move to push back PATs.

Supposedly the logic was that the XP was a meaningless play -- but does anyone really want a game decided on a missed XP?

Wasn’t the logic that XP’s had become too automatic?  Kickers were making them about 97-98 % of the time so they wanted to make it more challenging.

[FootballLove]

Imma fan of going for it inside the 10. I get the momentum shift if we're stopped. But there's also a momentum shift if the other Defense forces a 3pt try vs giving up 7, especially inside the 10. You see defenses all the time whooping it up and high fiving if they stop the other team's 3rd down attempt, forcing a FG try.

Plus, if we fail on a 4th and goal and turn the ball over, the other Offense is starting deep inside the 10. That's a big win for our Defense that will most likely force a punt and get the ball back around midfield.

When a HC shows true faith in his oline and offense to get that last yard, it goes a long way. Versus calling your offense off the field and sending in the kick squad.

Last, when the 4th and goal trys work out, there's nothing better as a fan!

[UntouchableCrew]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Wasn’t the logic that XP’s had become too automatic?  Kickers were making them about 97-98 % of the time so they wanted to make it more challenging.

Same thing. Meaningless play because they were always made.

I just can't fathom thinking "you know what would make this game better? More missed extra points."

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Same thing. Meaningless play because they were always made.

I just can't fathom thinking "you know what would make this game better? More missed extra points."

If the end result had been more teams go for 2 a lot more often, I’d have liked the change more.  Instead we just get a lot of missed kicks and weird scores.

If teams aren’t going to follow the numbers and go for 2, then yeah, I’d prefer the XP to be automatic.  Consider it a reward for scoring a TD rather than settling for a FG.  7 pts is so much better than 3 after a great drive.  When you miss the XP it’s quite a bit deflating. 

[RutgersJetFan]

9 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Imma fan of going for it inside the 10. I get the momentum shift if we're stopped. But there's also a momentum shift if the other Defense forces a 3pt try vs giving up 7, especially inside the 10. You see defenses all the time whooping it up and high fiving if they stop the other team's 3rd down attempt, forcing a FG try.

Plus, if we fail on a 4th and goal and turn the ball over, the other Offense is starting deep inside the 10. That's a big win for our Defense that will most likely force a punt and get the ball back around midfield.

When a HC shows true faith in his oline and offense to get that last yard, it goes a long way. Versus calling your offense off the field and sending in the kick squad.

Last, when the 4th and goal trys work out, there's nothing better as a fan!

Limiting it to arbitrary situations diminishes the point of the strategy. The entire premise that Kelley built is to always go for it in order to increase your odds, which are quite high on 4th and short so long as you don't water it down to a sample size. The population has to always be full for the success to be realized. So, for example, not punting it on 4th and 10 on your own 40 has an effect on when you eventually have to go for it on your opponent's 20 on 4th and 5. According to the theory, which has some serious footing in logic and principle, it only works if you commit to the aggregate. 

^That's Kelley's logic btw. And it's worth noting that he's had some struggles with it since getting a D1 job, but to be fair to him I'm not sure any of this matters when you're Presbyterian playing against Clemson.  

[HawkeyeJet]

35 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Kevin Kelley pioneered this when he was a high school coach. Loved it at the time and still do, but I question the 1-to-1 translation of it for the NFL. 

Wish he was about 10 years younger do that he could get a crack at a D1 job if he does well at Presbyterian.  Maybe he still would.  Didn’t go well in year one but gotta have time to turn it around.

[rangerous]

it's kind of like the whole 3 point basket in basket ball.  get the shot percentage up and it becomes a better shot than a 2 point jump shot.  i don't claim to know much about the nuances of football but ,c'mon, just about every team can make a yard or two any time they want.

[Rhg1084]

Teams should be going for it everytime on 4th and less than 5 on the plus side of the 50

[Beerfish]

The Ravens could very well miss the playoffs because they went for two rather than let a hof kicker sure thing make  kick in back to back games.

Everyone has excuses like the ravens did as to why they have to go for two (secondary we can't stop them yada yada)

Going for it in tweener positions you should always do.

If you have a kicker you do not trust go for it.

If you have a really good kicker, well those points add up over time as well.

Lots of thought has to go into these things becasue you can't imo just look at any given 4th down play, you have to layer probabilities I would think.

 

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Every team should be going for 2 every single time.  I’ll trust any NFL offense to draw up and execute a play to get 2 yards rather than ask a K to make a 32 yard kick for a measly 1 point. 

Convert 45+ % of your 2-point conversions and you come out ahead, since kickers miss lots of XPs these days.

The Ravens say Hi (possibly from the golf course after not making the playoffs).

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Wish he was about 10 years younger do that he could get a crack at a D1 job if he does well at Presbyterian.  Maybe he still would.  Didn’t go well in year one but gotta have time to turn it around.

He already resigned. Wasn't reflected in the record or scoreboard but it's worth noting they were like top in the nation in passing for schools without scholarships, which is anecdotal and circumstantial but I still think he's onto something.

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

The Ravens say Hi (possibly from the golf course after not making the playoffs).

See and this is the problem.  People readily remember when it fails but forget the times they succeed, especially those that occur earlier in games or in less critical situations. 

Just because it doesn’t work sometimes and in crucial situations doesn’t mean it’s a bad overall philosophy.  

[faba]

It also a reflection we are behind most of the time in all our games I might add

[Dunnie]

... and the winner for longest thread title goes to ....

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

[Irish Jet]

Analytics ruined sports.

[FidelioJet]

20 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I'll never understand the move to push back PATs.

Supposedly the logic was that the XP was a meaningless play -- but does anyone really want a game decided on a missed XP?

Completely agreed.

Always felt like far too many games are decided by the one player that shouldn't be deciding game - The Kicker.

And all they did was make that position even more important.  

IMO, if anything they should be doing what they can to ensure the kickers have less influence over the game.  Not more. 

[shawn306]

I think analytics has its place in sports but if you live and die by them i.e Yankees, Ravens, Rays, etc I think they do more harm than good.

Also if you notice the Bucs are last in going for it on 4th down even though they have the so-called GOAT of QB's and stars and just about every position out there.

[Integrity28]

21 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Kevin Kelley pioneered this when he was a high school coach. Loved it at the time and still do, but I question the 1-to-1 translation of it for the NFL. 

This. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, shawn306 said:

I think analytics has its place in sports but if you live and die by them i.e Yankees, Ravens, Rays, etc I think they do more harm than good.

Also if you notice the Bucs are last in going for it on 4th down even though they have the so-called GOAT of QB's and stars and just about every position out there.

How do we know they just don’t run into 4th down situations all that often compared to other teams?  This graph doesn’t say.

Also, it’s easier to pass on going for it in 4th down when you often have a big lead in games.