Jump to content

Do what you want with this information


Patriot Killa
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We only have the data points we have available, and my argument has always been that rookie year performance is important and perhaps even predictive.  While it's almost impossible to run a study suggesting whether that's the case, the odds for a QB succeeding seem to only drop precipitously for a QB who fails his rookie season.  They don't stay about the same.  Wilson's chances of succeeding in this league were a lot

The problem is, despite your claim that it is “almost impossible” to study such a thing (why?), there is no statistical evidence that a rookie season is predictive. 

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Mike White threw four picks against the Bills. Three of them came in the late third and fourth quarters after the Jets were down by three TDs already. That happens sometimes when you put the game in the hands of your QB. He still threw for 251 yards (a mark Wilson has eclipsed twice in eleven starts).

So theyre almost as bad as dropped INTs?

Now we're making excuses for throwing picks?  While forgetting the only reason he got to 251 yards passing was the game was out of reach and he was throwing to a Bills D that was playing soft.

Nice

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

The problem is, despite your claim that it is “almost impossible” to study such a thing (why?), there is no statistical evidence that a rookie season is predictive. 

Of course there isnt, that theory is laughable.  

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

When White faced Buffalo and played poorly, he simply sucked.  But when Zach Wilson faces Buffalo and plays poorly, it'll be because the Bills defense are the '85 Bears and no one should be expecting a rookie QB to compete against that in his 13th start.

When White sucked against Buffalo, he was evaluated accordingly, as a 26 year old QB who didn't play well in Dallas in 2018, who was waived by the Cowboys the same year, who played poorly again when signed to the Jets practice squad in 2019, who was waived four times by the Jets in 2020, and then under a completely different coaching staff, was so unimpressive in training camp that when the rookie QB went down injured, the GM traded a 6th round draft pick for a 37 year old to start instead of him. 

If Wilson sucks against Buffalo, he will be evaluated accordingly as a rookie starting his 13th game, which you acknowledge. 

The Buffalo game wasn't White's first rodeo. He has been around the League for years. Maybe, just maybe the Cincinnati game was a one-off and the other four years worth of practice and training camp was a more accurate reflection of his ability to start every week in the NFL. 

  • Upvote 2
  • Post of the Week 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, tfine said:

LMAO it’s pretty comical. Look at all the elite QBs all around the league and stud WRs they have….and Zack is expected to perform at the highest level…kinda feel bad for the kid.

Asking for him to maybe clear 250 yards more than 2 times out of 11 tries is not expecting him to perform "at the highest level".

There's a wide gap between QB # 32 and elite QB play.  Just like I requested out of Darnold, I'd like for Wilson to demonstrate he can be a top 20 QB in this league from time to time.  That's it.  That's not a lot to ask out of a # 2 overall pick.  

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Foley had one huge game too in the late 90s. I’m almost positive it was 98.  I thought we struck gold.  

Yep, you're right.  '98.  This one, right?  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199809060sfo.htm

Though he had a couple other nice games too, including one in '99 for Seattle:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199909190chi.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Jet Nut said:

So theyre almost as bad as dropped INTs?

Now we're making excuses for throwing picks?  While forgetting the only reason he got to 251 yards passing was the game was out of reach and he was throwing to a Bills D that was playing soft.

Nice

What? You boys were very excited to see Mike White throwing picks. I’m just pointing out that the picks were thrown late in a blowout. While he was throwing the ball downfield trying to wage a comeback. As opposed to what Saleh does with Zach, which is to simply concede the game when the other team goes up by a TD in the third quarter. Can’t have Zach throw those INTs now.

  • Upvote 1
  • Post of the Week 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So much of the success in the modern game is your number 1 winning the 50/50 balls.  

Mims was supposed to be that guy, but it's looking unlikely.  Imo, it's VITAL they add that player this year.  Burkes looks to be the closest in the draft.  It will slot Davis to be a solid #2 and Moore would be unstoppable in the slot. 

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Actually it was the Vinny "helmet game" over Seattle.  Though looking back, his performances against the Pats and Panthers were equally impressive or perhaps moreso.

Either way, '98 represented one of the last times we could be proud of the QB play here.

Favre vs AZ was impressive 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

Okay, so you aren't surprised Davis and Moore "opted" for IR because Zach was targeting Berrios too much?

I was just pointing out that other people were saying he just stared at Davis, I wasn't saying you were, only that other people disagreed with your Berrios as his exclusive target.

I’m saying that your excuse that Wilson “only” has Berrios to throw to is lame considering Berrios is Zach’s favorite receiver anyway. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Mike White threw four picks against the Bills. Three of them came in the late third and fourth quarters after the Jets were down by three TDs already. That happens sometimes when you put the game in the hands of your QB. He still threw for 251 yards (a mark Wilson has eclipsed twice in eleven starts).

Well that changes everything! 
 

wilson has thrown two picks since October 10th

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

What? You boys were very excited to see Mike White throwing picks. I’m just pointing out that the picks were thrown late in a blowout. While he was throwing the ball downfield trying to wage a comeback. As opposed to what Saleh does with Zach, which is to simply concede the game when the other team goes up by a TD in the third quarter. Can’t have Zach throw those INTs now.

In what game recently has the game been out of reach?

2 games.

First, the Eagles game.  Zach threw it 38 times.

Second, the Saints game.  Zach threw it 42 times.

When they get behind, they throw the ball.  He has still not been throwing tons of picks.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The problem is, despite your claim that it is “almost impossible” to study such a thing (why?), there is no statistical evidence that a rookie season is predictive. 

All I know is the list of QB's who sucked their rookie years is not impressive.  It's Allen, Stafford, and a bunch of garbage.  It's you stat geeks who say that means nothing, not me. 

Sometimes, correlation is still meaningful even if causation can't be fully established to a p<.05 degree.  This isn't shark attacks and ice cream sales we're talking about.  It's QB's who suck out of the gates who go on to continue to suck.  I don't know why that lacks predictive value to the statisticians out there. 

The fact that there are lot more guys whose statistical profile beyond their bad rookie years look a lot more like DeShone Kizer's than Matthew Stafford's, and seemingly at a higher rate than you'd expect out of any average highly drafted QB, seems meaningful to me.  

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep, you're right.  '98.  This one, right?  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199809060sfo.htm

Though he had a couple other nice games too, including one in '99 for Seattle:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199909190chi.htm

I couldn’t remember who it was against. Dueling it out with Steve Young.  That’s even crazier then I would have remembered.  I need to find tape of this game!  58 pass attempts on a Patcells team.  Wow.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Asking for him to maybe clear 250 yards more than 2 times out of 11 tries is not expecting him to perform "at the highest level".
There's a wide gap between QB # 32 and elite QB play.  Just like I requested out of Darnold, I'd like for Wilson to demonstrate he can be a top 20 QB in this league from time to time.  That's it.  That's not a lot to ask out of a # 2 overall pick.  


It is when you have zero trust in your receivers not named Berrios


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

In what game recently has the game been out of reach?

2 games.

First, the Eagles game.  Zach threw it 38 times.

Second, the Saints game.  Zach threw it 42 times.

When they get behind, they throw the ball.  He has still not been throwing tons of picks.

For 5.8 and 4.8 ypa, respectively. Kinda hard to come back from a deficit with extended handoffs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

What? You boys were very excited to see Mike White throwing picks. I’m just pointing out that the picks were thrown late in a blowout. While he was throwing the ball downfield trying to wage a comeback. As opposed to what Saleh does with Zach, which is to simply concede the game when the other team goes up by a TD in the third quarter. Can’t have Zach throw those INTs now.

Lets be clear, I'm never happy when our QB throws lots of picks.  Thats for you guys who enjoy seeing our players fail in a game.  

I just pointed out that most of Whites yardage came later in a blowout.  

Not that I see it in my crystal ball but now Saleh is covering Zachs ass against failure you say?  What kind of moron of a HC would that make him?  I remember how Montana was brought along by Walsh.  He let DeBerg bring the team downfield and at the redzone bring Montana in to get the glory TD.  How'd that work out for Walsh?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Jet Nut said:

Lets be clear, I'm never happy when our QB throws lots of picks.  Thats for you guys who enjoy seeing our players fail in a game.  

I just pointed out that most of Whites yardage came later in a blowout.  

Not that I see it in my crystal ball but now Saleh is covering Zachs ass against failure you say?  What kind of moron of a HC would that make him?  I remember how Montana was brought along by Walsh.  He let DeBerg bring the team downfield and at the redzone bring Montana in to get the glory TD.  How'd that work out for Walsh?

I am all for bringing in a new QB to lead the team between the twenties.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, tfine said:

It is when you have zero trust in your receivers not named Berrios

What exactly do we learn about Zach Wilson when we send Tevin Coleman up the middle 15x a game?  I thought Saleh talked a big game all summer about "battling through adversity".  Yet when it comes to their # 2 overall pick, they're trying to protect him from adversity?   The f**k is that about?  Are they going to prevent him from playing football until next year?

  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, T0mShane said:

For 5.8 and 4.8 ypa, respectively. Kinda hard to come back from a deficit with extended handoffs.

Agreed.  It would be nice to have receivers who can get open downfield.  Are you saying you'd rather him chuck it up in to coverage than take checkdowns?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

What exactly do we learn about Zach Wilson when we send Tevin Coleman up the middle 15x a game?  I thought Saleh talked a big game all summer about "battling through adversity".  Yet when it comes to their # 2 overall pick, they're trying to protect him from adversity?   The f**k is that about?  Are they going to prevent him from playing football until next year?

What do we learn from him throwing up 50/50 balls with guys who can't win 50/50's?  When we get behind, we throw the ball.  Nobody gets open, it goes to a checkdown.  You don't improve at QB by throwing up hail marys to practice squad receivers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, rtnelson said:

What do we learn from him throwing up 50/50 balls with guys who can't win 50/50's?  When we get behind, we throw the ball.  Nobody gets open, it goes to a checkdown.

Here's a thought:  Maybe it doesn't have to come down to 50/50 jump balls all the time.  Maybe, just maybe, there are throws to be made that Wilson isn't finding or has the confidence to make, and he needs in-game reps to gain that confidence?  Just spit-balling here.  

In any case, having Wilson hand off to Tevin Coleman up the middle 15x a game does not help him learn how to play the QB position.  Giving up on a game because you don't have your top receivers out there is not helpful.  Everyone has COVID right now.  Everyone is banged up right now.  Tough sh*t.  Play with the hands you're dealt to the best of your ability.  There's is zero reason we need to be running 60 % run plays right now, and we better damn well not see that against a Bucs team that is likely going to lay 40+ points on us.  

  • Upvote 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What exactly do we learn about Zach Wilson when we send Tevin Coleman up the middle 15x a game?  I thought Saleh talked a big game all summer about "battling through adversity".  Yet when it comes to their # 2 overall pick, they're trying to protect him from adversity?   The f**k is that about?  Are they going to prevent him from playing football until next year?


What are you talking about?





Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Here's a thought:  Maybe it doesn't have to come down to 50/50 jump balls all the time.  Maybe, just maybe, there are throws to be made that Wilson isn't finding or has the confidence to make, and he needs in-game reps to gain that confidence?  Just spit-balling here.  

In any case, having Wilson hand off to Tevin Coleman up the middle 15x a game does not help him learn how to play the QB position.  Giving up on a game because you don't have your top receivers out there is not helpful.  Everyone has COVID right now.  Everyone is banged up right now.  Tough sh*t.  Play with the hands you're dealt to the best of your ability.  There's is zero reason we need to be running 60 % run plays right now, and we better damn well not see that against a Bucs team that is likely going to lay 40+ points on us.  

In the games we've been down, we've thrown the ball.  I'm with you, I want to see Zach air it out 60 times against the Bucs.

That being said, I am mostly skeptical of the results of those 60 throws because the Bucs defense is good, and we're trotting out practice squad receivers.

If Tom Brady were our QB he would be a 60% passer and checking it down every play because nobody is open.  How do you not see that?

We're in a tough spot right now, and it's not because of QB play.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, T0mShane said:

This thread is gonna be necro gold in two weeks.

I haven't seen anyone claim Zach will have better results against the Bills than Mike White did.

He'll probably throw less picks though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Cool?  Wilson is supposed to have more talent in his pinky than White has in his entire body.  At least that's what we've been told lately.  

And I'll take the 5 TDs and 8 INTs over the 3 TDs and 1 INT.  We scored more points with White under center.  Simple as that.  

no its not. your taken 7 INTs TOO. with our defense you given them more pts than the 14 extra you got.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...