Do what you want with this information

[T0mShane]

Just now, rtnelson said:

He'll probably throw less picks though.

Second overall pick and $35 million dollars. So pumped.

[Jet Nut]

7 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

It’s clear now that what we all wanted to do with this information was argue ?I love this place and all of you.  I really do.  

Right?  The OP posts some good numbers for our QB and says do with it what you will and thats an invitations to explain how a really good stat line isnt a really good stat line.

We even has a J Rosen reference thrown in to really drag this thread down further

 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, doitny said:

no its not. your taken 7 INTs TOO. with our defense you given them more pts than the 14 extra you got.

And?  Picks happen.  The goal as a QB is to put as many points on the board as possible.  That doesn't happen without taking some chances here and there and throwing picks.

I argue that a 3-and-out is far worse than an INT in most instances, as it puts a tired defense right back on the field.  Wilson has racked up a lot of those.  

And as @T0mShane pointed out, most of White's picks were late in games when he was trying to push the ball down the field and make things happen.  These weren't exactly pick 6's on the first 3 plays of a drive.

[rtnelson]

Just now, T0mShane said:

Second overall pick and $35 million dollars. So pumped.

What is the combined Salary of his top 5 WR's, top 2 TE, top 2 RB's starting this week?

Serious question.  Over/under at 15m a year for those 9 players.

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

In the games we've been down, we've thrown the ball.  I'm with you, I want to see Zach air it out 60 times against the Bucs.

That being said, I am mostly skeptical of the results of those 60 throws because the Bucs defense is good, and we're trotting out practice squad receivers.

If Tom Brady were our QB he would be a 60% passer and checking it down every play because nobody is open.  How do you not see that?

We're in a tough spot right now, and it's not because of QB play.

 

Which is exactly why I wanted Wilson to throw a lot against the Jaguars.  Why not let him sling it 35+ times against a bad defense?  "Because we didn't have to" is a chickensh*t reason.  Just because you CAN run all over a bad Jacksonville defense doesn't mean its an automatic decision to do so.  This season is all about learning what we have in Wilson.  Not squeaking out a W against the # 32 team in the league.  And in the end, we SHOULD have still won even if we ran it less, if Wilson is indeed the goods.

I get that an interim coach was in charge, but my guess is Saleh would have handled it the same way:  Lot's of runs by Tevin Coleman.  

[Jet Nut]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Second overall pick and $35 million dollars. So pumped.

Because what, you expected a finished product, a QB playing like a 4 year vet in his rookie season?

That would be on you my friend

[Jet Nut]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Which is exactly why I wanted Wilson to throw a lot against the Jaguars.  Why not let him sling it 35+ times against a bad defense?  "Because we didn't have to" is a chickensh*t reason.  

Because youre not the HC?

Because everyone around the Jets were happy with he game, because no one in football calls a win chickenshlt?

[T0mShane]

Just now, Jet Nut said:

Because what, you expected a finished product, a QB playing like a 4 year vet in his rookie season?

That would be on you my friend

Hey, knock on wood that Zach improves. My main beef is with the coaching staff, which seems a lot more interested in CYA than in making a QB happen here. We’re at the point in his development where he has the whole offense on his plate. Instead, they went Benjamin Button with him.

[Jet Nut]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Hey, knock on wood that Zach improves. My main beef is with the coaching staff, which seems a lot more interested in CYA than in making a QB happen here. We’re at the point in his development where he has the whole offense on his plate. Instead, they went Benjamin Button with him.

Then bitch about the CS

[ZachEY]

9 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

This thread is gonna be necro gold in two weeks.

It will not be.  For the people currently excited by Zach Wilson, the season is over.  These last two weeks fall under “no help” and “too hard.”  Jacksonville was his Magnum Opus.

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Then bitch about the CS

Zach sucks.

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, ZachEY said:

It will not be.  For the people currently excited by Zach Wilson, the season is over.  These last two weeks fall under “no help” and “too hard.”  Jacksonville was his Magnum Opus.

By the time March rolls around, they’re going to be talking about The Jacksonvile Game like it’s Jordan’s Flu Game.

[tfine]

 
Which is exactly why I wanted Wilson to throw a lot against the Jaguars.  Why not let him sling it 35+ times against a bad defense?  "Because we didn't have to" is a chickensh*t reason.  Just because you CAN run all over a bad Jacksonville defense doesn't mean its an automatic decision to do so.  This season is all about learning what we have in Wilson.  Not squeaking out a W against the # 32 team in the league.  And in the end, we SHOULD have still won even if we ran it less, if Wilson is indeed the goods.
I get that an interim coach was in charge, but my guess is Saleh would have handled it the same way:  Lot's of runs by Tevin Coleman.  

You play to win the game. If the run game is working you run it down their throat till they stop it. Not aimlessly sling 35+ times to a weak receiving core to see if your rookie QB can put up some crazy stat line. If my head coach did this I would fire him on the spot for being so irresponsible.





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[rtnelson]

Just now, T0mShane said:

By the time March rolls around, they’re going to be talking about The Jacksonvile Game like it’s Jordan’s Flu Game.

You'll be here to remind us that "Zach sucks" all offseason.  Don't worry.

[ZachEY]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

By the time March rolls around, they’re going to be talking about The Jacksonvile Game like it’s Jordan’s Flu Game.

Sam Darnold almost beat Green Bay

[KINGDIRK]

5 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Whether people like his other stats or not this is very important and a step, cut the turnovers down and then build up other areas and progress.  Our last few flop QBs never got over that bad turnover buggaboo.

I’m annoyed by the inaccuracy on short passes but can’t ignore this significant and positive stat. 

The kid has been dealing without his top wideouts lately and missing some OL. 

He’s battling and not turning the ball over. It should be commended as much as his poor play has been condemned.

Silly to write this kid off without seeing him play next season. 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

All I know is the list of QB's who sucked their rookie years is not impressive.  It's Allen, Stafford, and a bunch of garbage.  It's you stat geeks who say that means nothing, not me. 

Sometimes, correlation is still meaningful even if causation can't be fully established to a p<.05 degree.  This isn't shark attacks and ice cream sales we're talking about.  It's QB's who suck out of the gates who go on to continue to suck.  I don't know why that lacks predictive value to the statisticians out there.  

I hear you. 
 

I’m a stats geek who uses stats everyday to study medical images. The problem is that probabilities are conditional. Most of ALL QBs are busts - The probability that any given QB is a bust is already very high. So - the question is, how more likely are you to bust, GIVEN THAT your rookie stats were below threshold X? Is your bust rate appreciably higher than the general population of all QBs? How does this change as you change threshold X? 
 

Knowing nothing else, I would say that Wilson is likely to bust just because most QBs bust. Because that probability is already quite high, it’s unlikely that his stats through 11 games are going to move the needle, appreciably. (Now, I would also guess a QB is considerably more likely to be a good QB if his stats are above a certain threshold Y, but that doesn’t help us with Wilson) 

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

You'll be here to remind us that "Zach sucks" all offseason.  Don't worry.

I will chronicle his development in my characteristic objective manner

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

Sam Darnold almost beat Green Bay

That game was exhilarating, to be honest

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, tfine said:

You play to win the game. If the run game is working you run it down their throat till they stop it. Not aimlessly sling 35+ times to a weak receiving core to see if your rookie QB can put up some crazy stat line. If my head coach did I would fire him on the stop for being so irresponsible.

Nice sentiment.  It's not how the coaching staff has been running things this year.  They've treated this entire year like a redshirt campaign. 

[Jet_Engine1]

3 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

Sam Darnold almost beat Green Bay

That seems like 15 years ago 

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nice sentiment.  It's not how the coaching staff has been running things this year.  They've treated this entire year like a redshirt campaign. 

To be fair, I think Ron Middleton was coaching to win the Jacksonville game.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

To be fair, I think Ron Middleton was coaching to win the Jacksonville game.

For sure.  But I have no doubt that Saleh would have handled this game a similar way when it came to letting Lafleur call 60 % run plays, so I'm not putting as much stock into the Middleton factor.  

[Jet Nut]

41 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Mike White threw four picks against the Bills. Three of them came in the late third and fourth quarters after the Jets were down by three TDs already. That happens sometimes when you put the game in the hands of your QB. He still threw for 251 yards (a mark Wilson has eclipsed twice in eleven starts).

 

11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And?  Picks happen.  The goal as a QB is to put as many points on the board as possible.  That doesn't happen without taking some chances here and there and throwing picks.

I argue that a 3-and-out is far worse than an INT in most instances, as it puts a tired defense right back on the field.  Wilson has racked up a lot of those.  

And as @T0mShane pointed out, most of White's picks were late in games when he was trying to push the ball down the field and make things happen.  These weren't exactly pick 6's on the first 3 plays of a drive.

 

Against the Bills Mike White threw pick #1 in the !st quarter of that game.  At the 12 min mark actually with the Jets actually tied with the Bills not down 3 scores 

Pick number 2?  3 minutes after half time.  Score was 17-3.  Bad but not 3 TDs down but 2

Pick number 3?  A little over a minute later, 10:47 into the 3rd

Pick number 4?  4 minutes later, 6 min left in the 3rd.

He did manage, while trailing by 3 or 4 TDs to get 70 of his passing yards on his last drive of the game.  Guess he was trying to make something happen.  

[tfine]

Nice sentiment.  It's not how the coaching staff has been running things this year.  They've treated this entire year like a redshirt campaign. 

Maybe it was in a way, but it doesn’t mean they weren’t going into every game trying to Win or at least be competitive. This is a very young roster and there is no substitute for experience. These kids need to know how to win.


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[Jet Nut]

12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Zach sucks.

So do these constant whiney posts about a rookie who has struggled at QB in a thread talking about his cutting down on TOs.

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, tfine said:

Maybe it was in a way, but it doesn’t mean they weren’t going into every game trying to Win or at least be competitive. This is a very young roster and there is no substitute for experience. These kids need to know how to win.

Yet the starting QB for 11 out of 15 games this year has been the 4th-best QB on the roster.

By your own logic, it'd be nice for the many other young guys on the roster "learning how to win" to have the QB that gives them the best chance to win under center, no?

[FidelioJet]

18 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Zach sucks.

You’re a Towel. 

[T0mShane]

5 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

 

 

Against the Bills Mike White threw pick #1 in the !st quarter of that game.  At the 12 min mark actually with the Jets actually tied with the Bills not down 3 scores 

Pick number 2?  3 minutes after half time.  Score was 17-3.  Bad but not 3 TDs down but 2

Pick number 3?  A little over a minute later, 10:47 into the 3rd

Pick number 4?  4 minutes later, 6 min left in the 3rd.

He did manage, while trailing by 3 or 4 TDs to get 70 of his passing yards on his last drive of the game.  Guess he was trying to make something happen.  

As per usual, you’re obfuscating. 
 

Pick 1: 9:25 left in the first. 

Pick 2: 11:56 mark of the third, Jets down 24-3

Pick 3: 8:28 left in the third. Corey Davis (who fumbled earlier) watches his defender pick the ball off and offers no resistance. Jets down 31-3

Pick 4: 1:14 left in the third. White takes a shot deep to Keelan Cole, gets picked off at Bills 1. Jets down 34-3

[T0mShane]

8 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

So do these constant whiney posts about a rookie who has struggled at QB in a thread talking about his cutting down on TOs.

This thread was meant to antagonize, as evidenced by 80 and myself getting tagged in it. Don’t say “Candyman” three times into a mirror if you don’t want the Candyman to show up and tell you that Zach sucks. And never, ever, ever, ever tell The Candyman that Mike White’s stats were taken “out of context.” Bees everywhere.

[Jet Nut]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

As per usual, you’re obfuscating. 
 

Pick 1: 9:25 left in the first. 

Pick 2: 11:56 mark of the third, Jets down 24-3

Pick 3: 8:28 left in the third. Corey Davis (who fumbled earlier) watches his defender pick the ball off and offers no resistance. Jets down 31-3

Pick 4: 1:14 left in the third. White takes a shot deep to Keelan Cole, gets picked off at Bills 1. Jets down 34-3

 

Jets Drives  

#	Quarter	Time	LOS	Plays	Length	Net Yds	Result
1	1	15:00	NYJ 10	3	0:50	4	Punt
2	1	12:15	NYJ 25	6	2:58	11	Interception
3	1	5:22	NYJ 25	3	1:57	-5	Punt
4	1	0:42	NYJ 16	7	4:51	35	Punt
5	2	5:26	NYJ 23	8	3:33	47	Field Goal
6	2	0:53	NYJ 25	4	0:44	42	Fumble
7	3	12:01	NYJ 17	1	0:14	0	Interception
8	3	10:47	NYJ 12	5	2:28	36	Interception
9	3	6:01	NYJ 25	8	4:53	49	Interception
10	3	0:32	BUF 35	11	3:34	35	Touchdown
11	4	10:57	NYJ 32	7	2:47	25	Downs
12	4	5:52	NYJ 32	8	3:44	68	Touchdown

 

Make excuses but not the story you were pushing before I dug up the numbers.  Nothing unclear or unintelligible 

[Big_Slick]

56 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

As opposed to what Saleh does with Zach, which is to simply concede the game when the other team goes up by a TD in the third quarter. Can’t have Zach throw those INTs now.

Hey, That's step 2.A in the 'actual plan'.

[Big_Slick]

Double post.

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

 

Jets Drives  

#	Quarter	Time	LOS	Plays	Length	Net Yds	Result
1	1	15:00	NYJ 10	3	0:50	4	Punt
2	1	12:15	NYJ 25	6	2:58	11	Interception
3	1	5:22	NYJ 25	3	1:57	-5	Punt
4	1	0:42	NYJ 16	7	4:51	35	Punt
5	2	5:26	NYJ 23	8	3:33	47	Field Goal
6	2	0:53	NYJ 25	4	0:44	42	Fumble
7	3	12:01	NYJ 17	1	0:14	0	Interception
8	3	10:47	NYJ 12	5	2:28	36	Interception
9	3	6:01	NYJ 25	8	4:53	49	Interception
10	3	0:32	BUF 35	11	3:34	35	Touchdown
11	4	10:57	NYJ 32	7	2:47	25	Downs
12	4	5:52	NYJ 32	8	3:44	68	Touchdown

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202111140nyj.htm#all_pbp

[Jet Nut]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202111140nyj.htm#all_pbp

That list is from football-reference.com

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202111140nyj.htm#all_pbp

Either way picks weren't in the 3rd and 4th Qs