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WHY it might make sense to TRADE DOWN Seattle pick?


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2 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Many Jet fans agree Edge at #1A where Purdue’s Karlaftis or Michigan’s Ojabo likely await.  Interesting that several ‘lazy’ pundits have us taking a corner with our first pick, ignoring the fact we run a heavy zone operation and place more of a premium on Edge.

But there’s a split amongst the VERY knowledgeable fan base (hehe) between OL vs WR at #1B.  Looking at mocks, there doesn’t appear to be a clear cut top WR at the top and it’s interesting to note that everyone’s favorite Center from Iowa can be had mid first round round.  Probably because that’s about as high as dominant centers tend to go.

Which takes us to the Eagles and their 3 first round picks in the ~middle of the draft.  Some key questions:

1. Do they believe in Hurts?

2. Do they LOVE a guy like Pickett (or other QB)?

3. Would they make a run at Watson?

They’ve set themselves up to land their QB of the future if they don’t believe Hurts is that guy, a reasonable but not guaranteed assumption.

The top QB taken should be in the #7-10 range, right where we should land with the Seattle pick.  What better trading partner than the non conference Jets with front office ties and a common adversary (Giants)?  A team like the Jets with multiple holes that could be filled middle of round 1 where the Eagles sit.

Seems too perfect a match but definitely something to keep an eye on.  The draft is always fluid so it will be interesting to see if anything changes in this dynamic between now and the draft.

 A dream scenario could be Seattle pick for 2 of their firsts that we use to acquire both a Center and WR.

I suppose if they really covet the pick that falls to us. Not sure they would want to part with 2 first rounders, but since those would be mid-range picks in the first round that is what it would take. And like you said getting three first rounders for us netting Edge, WR, and another Olineman would be great all 3 being very high prospects. We can then get another TE in the 2nd round and be in good shape, since those 4 positions are our biggest needs. The Edge rusher will make our secondary even better. We mainly need to get the offensive players no matter what it takes for Zack to progress even farther. He looks like he can raise the level of play of the skill position players. Heck, he was making Cole and Yaboah look real good yesterday and those are limited ceiling players since Cole will only ever be so good, and Yaboah needs more experience though he looks like he may continue to progress as a pass catcher.

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I think JD trades back on both first round picks. There is not a lot of value in the top 10 or 15 of this draft. None of those players are truly high impact players. I think it is the weakest top 10 in a long time.  This feels a lot like the 2008 Draft when everyone and their uncle was trying to convince themselves that players wore worthy of a top of the first round pick. The value this year is 16 through 40 and the middle rounds. 

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4 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I think JD trades back on both first round picks. There is not a lot of value in the top 10 or 15 of this draft. None of those players are truly high impact players. I think it is the weakest top 10 in a long time.  This feels a lot like the 2008 Draft when everyone and their uncle was trying to convince themselves that players wore worthy of a top of the first round pick. The value this year is 16 through 40 and the middle rounds. 

Idk about both but we’re definitely getting a trade back.  Most likely aren’t gonna get thibs or hutch, which I’m not too upset about, Stingley isn’t all that he’s being built up as and I don’t want to draft another safety high.  OT would be nice but I’d imagine JD is gonna do everything to have Becton prove he can do it or that he can’t do it.

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If both of the top two edge prospects are gone, I'd be happy if the Jets trade 1a back if they get a nice deal.  But, sadly, who would be trading up for what?  Usually, there would be a QB to do that for, but maybe not in this draft. Kenny Pickett?

Maybe some QB lights up the combine?

Maybe someone falls in love with Hamilton or Stingley??  Yeah, probably not.

A dream might be Jets trade 1a back for the first two Philly picks. If that were today, the Jets would end up with 7, 14, and 19. 

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1 hour ago, Rhg1084 said:

Think about what you just wrote. There’s not a lot of value so JD will trade back. Why the heck would someone else trade up then?! Who are they trading up for exactly if there are no QBs? 

Good Question. Did you think the Jets would get 2 firsts, a second and a player for Adams? How about Darnold? Did you think they'd get a second round pick for him? Don't count on the GM's of the other teams being rocket scientists, or even competent for that matter. 

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4 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Good Question. Did you think the Jets would get 2 firsts, a second a player for Adams? How about Darnold? Did you think they'd get a second round pick for him? Don't count on the GM's of the other teams being rocket scientists, or even competent for that matter. 

Obviously we know if there’s a good deal to make Douglas will be all over it. I just don’t see it happening in this draft 

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

The top QB taken should be in the #7-10 range, right where we should land with the Seattle pick.  What better trading partner than the non conference Jets with front office ties and a common adversary (Giants)?  A team like the Jets with multiple holes that could be filled middle of round 1 where the Eagles sit.

The QBs almost always rise every year. Really hoping at least one goes in the top three.

That said, I’m very much in favor of trading down (as I almost always am), and hoping that they can land an additional first in 2023 as a result. This board is very OL-centric, but I’m hoping for the WR or maybe a LB with their second first rounder.  
 
 

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9 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Obviously we know if there’s a good deal to make Douglas will be all over it. I just don’t see it happening in this draft 


Don't underestimate the stupidity of a GM who falls in love with a player and/or thinks they are just that one player away from a big turnaround.

 

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1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Jalen hurts is a young qb who is improving with each game and took his team to the playoffs this year.  Why would the eagles have any interest in a qb?

Well, there was talk about the eagles going after Watson and some thought Minshew did more with their offense than Hurts. 

With that said, I agree that it would be foolish for the Eagles to give up on Hurts. He is a good NFL QB.  

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5 minutes ago, slats said:

The QBs almost always rise every year. Really hoping at least one goes in the top three.

That said, I’m very much in favor of trading down (as I almost always am), and hoping that they can land an additional first in 2023 as a result. This board is very OL-centric, but I’m hoping for the WR or maybe a LB with their second first rounder.  
 
 

Yeah, by the time draft day rolls around the Teams/pundits will hype up at least 1 QB up into the top 1/2. Howell and Corrall are both getting top 10 hype already. Ridder and Willis are being talked about in the 1st round. 

A couple of those guys will have monster pro days and shoot up. 

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If Philly doesn't want to pick a QB THIS YEAR, but is not wholly sold on Hurts, they might trade one or two of their first rounders to someone for a first in next year's draft - so they can hedge their capital in case Hurts bombs next year, and picking a QB is in their sights once again.

Douglas might indeed trade down here and there, and stockpile for next year if he can. If he can trade down for a lower first round pick plus a high pick in next years' draft, it might make sense - spreading out the future cap hits and not getting too young(er.)

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13 minutes ago, slats said:

The QBs almost always rise every year. Really hoping at least one goes in the top three.

That said, I’m very much in favor of trading down (as I almost always am), and hoping that they can land an additional first in 2023 as a result. This board is very OL-centric, but I’m hoping for the WR or maybe a LB with their second first rounder.  
 
 

Yeah every year it happens. This time in Jan 2009 wasn't Sanchez projected 16-20? I think Goff was still supposed to go around #7-ish this time in 2016, with Tunsil locked in at #1?

If there's just one top QB prospect, and his supposedly-appropriate slot # is 7-ish as well, then it's the 4 pick that should be in play (if things end as they are now). The Giants surely will take a QB, so if there's just one top guy this year - and more than just the Giants love him - we'd be in the perfect trade down slot at #4. 

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1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I think JD trades back on both first round picks. There is not a lot of value in the top 10 or 15 of this draft. None of those players are truly high impact players. I think it is the weakest top 10 in a long time.  This feels a lot like the 2008 Draft when everyone and their uncle was trying to convince themselves that players wore worthy of a top of the first round pick. The value this year is 16 through 40 and the middle rounds. 

I mean, the 2008 draft had 2 Pro Bowlers in the top 5, 3 Pro Bowlers in the top 10 and 6 Pro Bowlers in the top 15. So I'm not so sure thats a great comparison. 

While the 2022 draft doesn't have a lot of clear cut top 5 talent, its definitely deep at certain positions like O-line and Edge. An argument can be made that Hutch, Thib, Leal, Karlaftis, Ojabo, Johnson, Leal, Neal, Green, Ikwonu, Cross, Linderbaum, Hamilton, Stingley, Booth, Corral are all top 10 prospects and high impact players. Again, in particular because of the depth at Edge and O-line. Its a bit too early to tell. As we approach the draft, certain players will separate themselves. 

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I do think that JD will trade down from one of our top 10 picks. He values the draft that much that I could see him trading down and looking to keep the double firsts alive for next year as well. Personally, I would probably prefer to stay put and take the picks UNLESS it’s a team with 2 firsts this year that wants to cough them both over. Picking 3 times in round 1 on top of the 2 second rounders would be fantastic

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Many Jet fans agree Edge at #1A where Purdue’s Karlaftis or Michigan’s Ojabo likely await.  Interesting that several ‘lazy’ pundits have us taking a corner with our first pick, ignoring the fact we run a heavy zone operation and place more of a premium on Edge.

But there’s a split amongst the VERY knowledgeable fan base (hehe) between OL vs WR at #1B.  Looking at mocks, there doesn’t appear to be a clear cut top WR at the top and it’s interesting to note that everyone’s favorite Center from Iowa can be had mid first round round.  Probably because that’s about as high as dominant centers tend to go.

Which takes us to the Eagles and their 3 first round picks in the ~middle of the draft.  Some key questions:

1. Do they believe in Hurts?

2. Do they LOVE a guy like Pickett (or other QB)?

3. Would they make a run at Watson?

They’ve set themselves up to land their QB of the future if they don’t believe Hurts is that guy, a reasonable but not guaranteed assumption.

The top QB taken should be in the #7-10 range, right where we should land with the Seattle pick.  What better trading partner than the non conference Jets with front office ties and a common adversary (Giants)?  A team like the Jets with multiple holes that could be filled middle of round 1 where the Eagles sit.

Seems too perfect a match but definitely something to keep an eye on.  The draft is always fluid so it will be interesting to see if anything changes in this dynamic between now and the draft.

 A dream scenario could be Seattle pick for 2 of their firsts that we use to acquire both a Center and WR.

If we pick at 4, there is no way I am taking Karlaftis or Ojabo at that spot. They are both tremendous reaches and there is a lot of depth at EDGE. Nor am I taking a CB. Neal would be the obvious pick there, but safety is super important to Saleh's defense so they could go Hamilton. BTW for this draft EDGE is no where near our most important need because Zach remains the priority,.

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28 minutes ago, slats said:

The QBs almost always rise every year. Really hoping at least one goes in the top three.

That said, I’m very much in favor of trading down (as I almost always am), and hoping that they can land an additional first in 2023 as a result. This board is very OL-centric, but I’m hoping for the WR or maybe a LB with their second first rounder.  
 
 

Not sure the QBs get pushed up super high this year. Last year at this time it was already happening with Lance and Wilson, not seeing that as much this year.

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15 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I mean, the 2008 draft had 2 Pro Bowlers in the top 5, 3 Pro Bowlers in the top 10 and 6 Pro Bowlers in the top 15. So I'm not so sure thats a great comparison. 

While the 2022 draft doesn't have a lot of clear cut top 5 talent, its definitely deep at certain positions like O-line and Edge. An argument can be made that Hutch, Thib, Leal, Karlaftis, Ojabo, Johnson, Leal, Neal, Green, Ikwonu, Cross, Linderbaum, Hamilton, Stingley, Booth, Corral are all top 10 prospects and high impact players. Again, in particular because of the depth at Edge and O-line. Its a bit too early to tell. As we approach the draft, certain players will separate themselves. 

That’s how it turned out, yes. But I’m talking about the view going into the draft. 

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3 hours ago, HighPitch said:

I think one of our early pics traded to the eagles for their pair of late round firsts in the way to go. Get er done jd

I just did a PFN mock a few minutes ago, and immediately thought of you. Philly traded up to me for 4 & 69, and I got 14 &19. They took Kyle Hamilton.

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2 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

That’s how it turned out, yes. But I’m talking about the view going into the draft. 

Well, yes, you may be right, going into the draft there may not have been a clear cut top 5. However, that draft was also deep at O-line and Edge/D-line. And as it turned out, a lot of the guys drafted early, even if they weren't quite top 5 talents, ended up being Pro Bowlers.

Look, I guess we are splitting hairs. I'm all for a trade down if one is available, as long as we get a good player. In particular an edge and oline. I just don't want us to trade down and whiff. I'd be totally happy if we took Karlaftis/Ojabo/Johnson at #4 and traded the Seattle pick to move down to the high teens to take Linderbaum or Ekwonu. Or some variation of that.  

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3 minutes ago, section314 said:

I just did a PFN mock a few minutes ago, and immediately thought of you. Philly traded up to me for 4 & 69, and I got 14 &19. They took Kyle Hamilton.

I just did this one. Traded both 1st rounders. Then traded a trade. And again. Just moved down a few spots every time picking up later pics. 10 players in the top 71!!!!!

  • NYJ
    16.
    Charles Cross
    OT Mississippi State
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    17.
    Tyler Linderbaum
    OC Iowa
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    35.
    Jaquan Brisker
    S Penn State
     
  • NYJ
    38.
    Isaiah Likely
    TE Coastal Carolina
     
  • NYJ
    42.
    Jalen Wydermyer
    TE Texas A&M
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    44.
    Trent McDuffie
    CB Washington
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    47.
    Carson Strong
    QB Nevada
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    49.
    Jahan Dotson
    WR Penn State
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    63.
    Wan'Dale Robinson
    WR Kentucky
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    71.
    Henry To'o To'o
    LB Alabama
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    111.
    John Metchie III
    WR Alabama
    trade icon
pfn-logo-results-420x50-black.png
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obviously it depends on how this draft shakes out.  apparently there are a few edge guys but it's not like they're going to go 1-2-and 3.  they'll be spread out.  and a qb might get into the top 10 or even a rb.  the jets need to make their picks count so i can easily see them staying put and picking up maybe 4 really good players.  but they can also trade back a few spots and pick up more picks this year or even picks for next year.  can you imagine trading back a couple of spots with the giants and getting their first rounder plus one in 2023?  that would really be keeping the cupboard full.

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1 hour ago, slats said:

The QBs almost always rise every year. Really hoping at least one goes in the top three.

That said, I’m very much in favor of trading down (as I almost always am), and hoping that they can land an additional first in 2023 as a result. This board is very OL-centric, but I’m hoping for the WR or maybe a LB with their second first rounder.  
 
 

Agreed that QBs always rise.  However, doesn't it usually start to happen by now?

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I don't buy the idea that the Jets should trade down because the player they want is slated to be picked later.  There is no guarantee that the player slides down the board and there are plenty of examples of mid round first round picks being better players than early picks. Bottom line - if you really want a player, taking him at 6-7 rather than trying to trade down to 12-18 or so is fine.

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