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WHY it might make sense to TRADE DOWN Seattle pick?


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2 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Trading down gets us a Mims or a Farrior.

JD should pick his guy, and trade up if he has to.  Like last year.

Mims was just a stupid pick there were other good players still there at that pick.  

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5 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Many Jet fans agree Edge at #1A where Purdue’s Karlaftis or Michigan’s Ojabo likely await.  Interesting that several ‘lazy’ pundits have us taking a corner with our first pick, ignoring the fact we run a heavy zone operation and place more of a premium on Edge.

But there’s a split amongst the VERY knowledgeable fan base (hehe) between OL vs WR at #1B.  Looking at mocks, there doesn’t appear to be a clear cut top WR at the top and it’s interesting to note that everyone’s favorite Center from Iowa can be had mid first round round.  Probably because that’s about as high as dominant centers tend to go.

Which takes us to the Eagles and their 3 first round picks in the ~middle of the draft.  Some key questions:

1. Do they believe in Hurts?

2. Do they LOVE a guy like Pickett (or other QB)?

3. Would they make a run at Watson?

They’ve set themselves up to land their QB of the future if they don’t believe Hurts is that guy, a reasonable but not guaranteed assumption.

The top QB taken should be in the #7-10 range, right where we should land with the Seattle pick.  What better trading partner than the non conference Jets with front office ties and a common adversary (Giants)?  A team like the Jets with multiple holes that could be filled middle of round 1 where the Eagles sit.

Seems too perfect a match but definitely something to keep an eye on.  The draft is always fluid so it will be interesting to see if anything changes in this dynamic between now and the draft.

 A dream scenario could be Seattle pick for 2 of their firsts that we use to acquire both a Center and WR.

If Seattle ends up in front of the Panthers then I think there is a shot we trade back from the Seattle pick but otherwise I think #4 makes the most sense and grab Ojabo or Karlaftis with Seattle's pick.

If we move down from #4 I'd be looking for a nice haul including a 1 next year. I don't mind passing on picks this year (except for the move back) since we already have 9 picks. I would look to target WR/LB/OL with that trade down.

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I think it is a likely stretch that we get another 1 this year to trade down.  

But I agree that there will be QBs that teams will want.  If you don't have a QB, how are you getting one?  A draft pick around 10 costs $5-6mm year and has upside.  What does Teddy Bridgewater cost?

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2 hours ago, PepPep said:

Well, yes, you may be right, going into the draft there may not have been a clear cut top 5. However, that draft was also deep at O-line and Edge/D-line. And as it turned out, a lot of the guys drafted early, even if they weren't quite top 5 talents, ended up being Pro Bowlers.

Look, I guess we are splitting hairs. I'm all for a trade down if one is available, as long as we get a good player. In particular an edge and oline. I just don't want us to trade down and whiff. I'd be totally happy if we took Karlaftis/Ojabo/Johnson at #4 and traded the Seattle pick to move down to the high teens to take Linderbaum or Ekwonu. Or some variation of that.  

I don't think any of the top edge guys are elite pass rushers. The kid from Michigan is a complete player and a cornerstone type of guy, but he doesn't have the tools to be a great pass rusher in the NFL from the get go. I think someone available in the 2d or 3d round has as good a chance at becoming an elite pass rusher as the guys at the top.

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3 hours ago, johnnysd said:

If we pick at 4, there is no way I am taking Karlaftis or Ojabo at that spot. They are both tremendous reaches and there is a lot of depth at EDGE. Nor am I taking a CB. Neal would be the obvious pick there, but safety is super important to Saleh's defense so they could go Hamilton. BTW for this draft EDGE is no where near our most important need because Zach remains the priority,.

I mean, you just said you doubt any QBs get pushed up high, so who goes top 3? Most likely Neal, Huth and Thib. So who goes at #4? Karlaftis or Hamilton. I love Hamilton as a prospect but most people will tell you we need to edge. I'm not so sure Karlaftis is much of a reach. Hes a top 10 prospect for sure. Will he be around by the time we pick at 8 with the Seattle selection? I doubt it. So how much of a reach is he...by 2-3 selections maybe? IMO, he is def. the next best edge with Ojabo a close second right after him. I think he's a better fit though. 

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2 hours ago, ZachEY said:

Agreed that QBs always rise.  However, doesn't it usually start to happen by now?

I don’t know. @Sperm Edwards mentioned Sanchez, who I thought was expected to go around #20 this time of year back then. Seems like Zach and, even more so, Trey Lance were later risers last year. I usually don’t start really paying attention to the draft until around now, and it always seems like the QBs bubble to the top. 

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46 minutes ago, slats said:

I don’t know. @Sperm Edwards mentioned Sanchez, who I thought was expected to go around #20 this time of year back then. Seems like Zach and, even more so, Trey Lance were later risers last year. I usually don’t start really paying attention to the draft until around now, and it always seems like the QBs bubble to the top. 

Flacco is another one iirc. This time back then I don't think he was a first round projection yet, let alone top 20. 

Goff wasn't #1 back 1.5 months before the combine.

Cutler I think was a bit later climber, too.

I'm sure there are plenty other examples, though.

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2 hours ago, varjet said:

I think it is a likely stretch that we get another 1 this year to trade down.  

But I agree that there will be QBs that teams will want.  If you don't have a QB, how are you getting one?  A draft pick around 10 costs $5-6mm year and has upside.  What does Teddy Bridgewater cost?

Probably not two picks this year, but a second pick next maybe. Depends how badly someone wants the top QB. Good thing about our position is we'll be the lowest high pick among teams with no QB interest, if Houston doesn't take the top guy for themselves. 

Too early to tell yet. Wilson certainly wasn't any consensus #2 overall pick this time last year.

All it takes is one team to get smitten.

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8 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Many Jet fans agree Edge at #1A where Purdue’s Karlaftis or Michigan’s Ojabo likely await.  Interesting that several ‘lazy’ pundits have us taking a corner with our first pick, ignoring the fact we run a heavy zone operation and place more of a premium on Edge.

But there’s a split amongst the VERY knowledgeable fan base (hehe) between OL vs WR at #1B.  Looking at mocks, there doesn’t appear to be a clear cut top WR at the top and it’s interesting to note that everyone’s favorite Center from Iowa can be had mid first round round.  Probably because that’s about as high as dominant centers tend to go.

Which takes us to the Eagles and their 3 first round picks in the ~middle of the draft.  Some key questions:

1. Do they believe in Hurts?

2. Do they LOVE a guy like Pickett (or other QB)?

3. Would they make a run at Watson?

They’ve set themselves up to land their QB of the future if they don’t believe Hurts is that guy, a reasonable but not guaranteed assumption.

The top QB taken should be in the #7-10 range, right where we should land with the Seattle pick.  What better trading partner than the non conference Jets with front office ties and a common adversary (Giants)?  A team like the Jets with multiple holes that could be filled middle of round 1 where the Eagles sit.

Seems too perfect a match but definitely something to keep an eye on.  The draft is always fluid so it will be interesting to see if anything changes in this dynamic between now and the draft.

 A dream scenario could be Seattle pick for 2 of their firsts that we use to acquire both a Center and WR.

I think you are correct regarding the discussion of picking a wide receiver or a offensive lineman with that 2nd 1st round pick.

The fact is that the wide receiver we got in free agency, Davis, has underperformed with his large contract.  We stand to lose Crowder in free agency, and Mims looks like a bust at this point.  The Jets must address this major need either in free agency or the draft.

As far as the offensive line, Moses is a free agent as is our new right guard, Duvernet.  Fant will be entering his final year of his contract, and Becton is a question mark as to his ability to stay healthy, and whether or not the Jets might decide to move him to right tackle, and leave Fant at left tackle.  And with Fant's recent injury, we are all waiting to see what the prognosis is, and if he will be okay for the beginning of next season.

Both of these areas must be addressed, and right now, how Joe Douglas will deal with the offensive line is a big fat question mark.  

Personally, I would address the offensive line with the 2nd 1st round pick, since you can get a high level wide receiver in round 2 (see Elijah Moore), but I believe you are much less likely to get a blue chip offensive lineman in round 2 or below.  

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It’s too bad but typical that the year we will have two top ten picks and no need for a QB is also a year where there is not even one QB projected as a top ten prospect.  If we were in a situation like last year or the Darnold/Mayfield/Allen et al year we could absolutely get a haul moving around with both picks.  Oh well nice to dream….

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2 hours ago, PepPep said:

I mean, you just said you doubt any QBs get pushed up high, so who goes top 3? Most likely Neal, Huth and Thib. So who goes at #4? Karlaftis or Hamilton. I love Hamilton as a prospect but most people will tell you we need to edge. I'm not so sure Karlaftis is much of a reach. Hes a top 10 prospect for sure. Will he be around by the time we pick at 8 with the Seattle selection? I doubt it. So how much of a reach is he...by 2-3 selections maybe? IMO, he is def. the next best edge with Ojabo a close second right after him. I think he's a better fit though. 

I am not taking a 4.5 sack college player Top 10. Nor am I taking a CB in general, and especially not one who's play declined over time in college. If Neal, Hutch and Thib are all gone and I can't trade down then you have to decide between Linderbaum, Hamilton or best WR in that position. Ojabo and Karlaftis are just gigantic reaches to me at 4. 

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I'm all about trading the second 1st rounder back a bit and accumulating another high pick and a couple in 2023, keep the flexibility of draft capital alive.

With that being said, we can have an extremely quality draft without trading, and taking what it gives us.  

Can. You. Imagine. This type of haul? 

 

20220103_202501.jpg.e268cf5ecb3361a939db8e4f5064109e.jpg

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51 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I am not taking a 4.5 sack college player Top 10. Nor am I taking a CB in general, and especially not one who's play declined over time in college. If Neal, Hutch and Thib are all gone and I can't trade down then you have to decide between Linderbaum, Hamilton or best WR in that position. Ojabo and Karlaftis are just gigantic reaches to me at 4. 

Yeah they’re not taking a center 4th overall, no chance. This Linderbaum obsession some Jets fans have as reach a point of absurdity 

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just like a QB will rise to the top 5 or 10, so will a WR. there will be someone that will be a must have. and i dont see the need to draft a OL in the 1st. we played really well with only one 1st rd pick. 

we had 4 FAs who were a UDFA, a 3rd and two 6th rd picks. 

we had Feeney ( 3rd rd pick) who everyone loves to abuse be part of a OL with Edoga give up 1 sack and run for over 150 yds against the 3rd best run defense. 

we have so many spots to fill i dont see us wasting another 1st rd pick on the OL. there a dime a dozen and you can find them all over the place. skill players you cant

 

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37 minutes ago, JTJet said:

I'm all about trading the second 1st rounder back a bit and accumulating another high pick and a couple in 2023, keep the flexibility of draft capital alive.

With that being said, we can have an extremely quality draft without trading, and taking what it gives us.  

Can. You. Imagine. This type of haul? 

 

20220103_202501.jpg.e268cf5ecb3361a939db8e4f5064109e.jpg

I watched that guy Dean running like a madman the other night against Michigan.  There is absolutely NO WAY he makes it to the second round short of an injury in the championship game.  

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39 minutes ago, ChewyandtheJets said:

I watched that guy Dean running like a madman the other night against Michigan.  There is absolutely NO WAY he makes it to the second round short of an injury in the championship game.  

I agree. But this is what the sim gave me, so here we are. 

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6 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Mims was just a stupid pick there were other good players still there at that pick.  

It’s easy to say that in hindsight. On draft day everyone was considering JD a genius for trading down and still getting Mims. Everyone on this board was also in love with him. Hard to say it was a “stupid” pick but for sure one that hasn’t worked out yet 

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Disagree that the Eagles might be the trade partner but I think the idea is right. Jets could be in the sweet spot for the first QB taken and teams with aging QBs like Pitt could be interested in coming up a few spots. I like trading down with the second 1st Round pick. 

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28 minutes ago, Darnold615 said:

It’s easy to say that in hindsight. On draft day everyone was considering JD a genius for trading down and still getting Mims. Everyone on this board was also in love with him. Hard to say it was a “stupid” pick but for sure one that hasn’t worked out yet 

It does not matter what anyone said on the day of the draft. 

The guy is a second rounder, he has done nothing and regressed, looks like a total flop.

We can make excuses as to why every single pick was fine and just did not work out.

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14 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I am not taking a 4.5 sack college player Top 10. Nor am I taking a CB in general, and especially not one who's play declined over time in college. If Neal, Hutch and Thib are all gone and I can't trade down then you have to decide between Linderbaum, Hamilton or best WR in that position. Ojabo and Karlaftis are just gigantic reaches to me at 4. 

I mean, I won't get into a huge argument over this. We can agree to disagree. I think Karlaftis and Ojabo will both be impact players at the next level. Karlaftis had 7.5 sacks in 2019 before he started seeing a ton of double teams and attention from the opposing team. You have to look at more than stats (although those are very important as well). If you did, Hamilton would be a late round prospect because his stats are really not that impressive. 

Karlaftis is a polished pass rusher who has immense upper body strength and a plethora of moves. But what sets him apart- and what will boost his stock assuming there is a combine, is that for a 275lb edge, he is a speed rusher and has tremendous burst and explosiveness.

Personally, I don't see any WR I would take top 10 in this draft. And IMO, Linderbaum is a reach. I think most will tell you the Jets can safely trade down out of the top 10 and still get Linderbaum. 

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20 hours ago, HighPitch said:

I just did this one. Traded both 1st rounders. Then traded a trade. And again. Just moved down a few spots every time picking up later pics. 10 players in the top 71!!!!!

  • NYJ
    16.
    Charles Cross
    OT Mississippi State
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    17.
    Tyler Linderbaum
    OC Iowa
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    35.
    Jaquan Brisker
    S Penn State
     
  • NYJ
    38.
    Isaiah Likely
    TE Coastal Carolina
     
  • NYJ
    42.
    Jalen Wydermyer
    TE Texas A&M
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    44.
    Trent McDuffie
    CB Washington
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    47.
    Carson Strong
    QB Nevada
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    49.
    Jahan Dotson
    WR Penn State
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    63.
    Wan'Dale Robinson
    WR Kentucky
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    71.
    Henry To'o To'o
    LB Alabama
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    111.
    John Metchie III
    WR Alabama
    trade icon
pfn-logo-results-420x50-black.png

OMG...with that draft the Jets will have taken 4 OL in the first round in 3 years!  I've been arguing recently for Linderbaum with pick 1b and been told that it is crazy to draft 3 OL in the first round in 3 years. 

:-)

 

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34 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I mean, I won't get into a huge argument over this. We can agree to disagree. I think Karlaftis and Ojabo will both be impact players at the next level. Karlaftis had 7.5 sacks in 2019 before he started seeing a ton of double teams and attention from the opposing team. You have to look at more than stats (although those are very important as well). If you did, Hamilton would be a late round prospect because his stats are really not that impressive. 

Karlaftis is a polished pass rusher who has immense upper body strength and a plethora of moves. But what sets him apart- and what will boost his stock assuming there is a combine, is that for a 275lb edge, he is a speed rusher and has tremendous burst and explosiveness.

Personally, I don't see any WR I would take top 10 in this draft. And IMO, Linderbaum is a reach. I think most will tell you the Jets can safely trade down out of the top 10 and still get Linderbaum. 

I'd be happy with Karlaftis and Linderbaum in the first round after a trade down.  I'd also be happy with Karlaftis and an OT or WR.

Unfortunately, the issues with Fant (knee) and Becton (?) mean that JD might well take an OT in the first round, or in the 2nd at the latest b/c they also need a good swing tackle, unless Edoga looks surprisingly good this week. They really should not count on Becton for anything.

 

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pfn-logo-black
  • NYJ
    7.
    Aidan Hutchinson
    EDGE Michigan
     
  • NYJ
    14.
    Jameson Williams
    WR Alabama
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    19.
    Tyler Linderbaum
    OC Iowa
    trade icon
  • NYJ
    35.
    Isaiah Likely
    TE Coastal Carolina
     
  • NYJ
    38.
    Breece Hall
    RB Iowa State
     
  • NYJ
    69.
    Daniel Faalele
    OT Minnesota
     
  • NYJ
    108.
    Channing Tindall
    LB Georgia
     
  • NYJ
    115.
    Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson
    CB TCU
     
  • NYJ
    145.
    Zach Harrison
    EDGE Ohio State
     
  • NYJ
    159.
    Jeremy Ruckert
    TE Ohio State
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14 hours ago, ChewyandtheJets said:

I watched that guy Dean running like a madman the other night against Michigan.  There is absolutely NO WAY he makes it to the second round short of an injury in the championship game.  

Dean is 6-0, 225.  Like JOK and Deion Jones.  GMs draft in large part based on profile-their grades are a blend of attributes/metrics and performance.  I am not defending that, but it appears to be the reality.  It is the reason that Becton was picked so high, and why Mims fell and was still picked to high.  And why JOK was picked so low.

Dean is too small to get picked as a LB in the first round.  In retrospect JOK was a great pick for the Jets where they picked Moore.  

This is why in many years the 2nd round picks end up better than the first, such as the Darron Lee draft, for instance.  There a really are not many players picked within 5 picks or so of Lee that looked like better picks for the Jets-maybe Artie Burns.  But the second round had guys like Deion Jones, probably the best comparison to Dean.  

I think there is a decent shot Dean is there at 35, but I would rather scoop him up at 28.  

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19 hours ago, CSNY said:

Depending on the severity of Fants injury might need to keep both picks so they can draft Neal and Karlaftis 

If Fant is seriously injured and the top two edge rushers are gone, I would draft Neal & Dean in the 1st then address the WR & edge in the 2nd round. 

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Edge rushers and Wide Receivers.  These are the most important needs.   You’re not changing the trajectory of this team until you get some speed, explosiveness and depth at these positions.  Good ones are rarely available in free agency so you need to draft them.  It’s very simple. 

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23 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I think JD trades back on both first round picks. There is not a lot of value in the top 10 or 15 of this draft. None of those players are truly high impact players. I think it is the weakest top 10 in a long time.  This feels a lot like the 2008 Draft when everyone and their uncle was trying to convince themselves that players wore worthy of a top of the first round pick. The value this year is 16 through 40 and the middle rounds. 

If there is not a lot of value, why would teams trade up? If the value is sitting in 16 through 40, and I have pick 16, why am I trading for pick 7?

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