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Best bets thread ( legal in NY)


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I’m trying not to throw money at it, but Jets +16.5 and the over (40.5) seem pretty likely. The Bills will pull ahead early and get into cruise control, but the Jets are gonna want to be scrappy. I can see them putting a few cheap scores on the board late to feel good about themselves moving forward.

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A couple of contract incentives, records you should keep an eye on for player props tomorrow

 

The following players can hit contract incentives:

Marvin Jones 4 receptions for $500K, 14 receptions for $1 mil

Gronks needs 7 receptions for $500K, 85 yds for $500K and 3 TDs for $500K

AJ Green needs 10 receptions for $250K, 75 yds for $250K

Diggs needs 6 receptions for $1.55 million, 231 yards for another $1.55 million

Rex Burkhead needs 103 yds for $125K

 

The following players can hit milestones:

 

Mike Evans - 54 yds for 1,000 in 8 straight seasons

Cooper Cupp - needs 12 catches and 136 yards to set single season records, respectively.

Jamar Chase  - needs 45 yds for single season rookie record

Pitts - needs 59 yards for single season rookie records (TEs)

Andrews - needs 141 yards for single season record all TEs

Taylor - needs 266 yds for 2,000

Waddle - needs 3 catches for single season rookie reception records

Davante Adams - needs 22 yds for single season Packers records

 

Usually Gronk's player props are around 50 yds and 5 catches.  If I see these props similar to that I am 100% betting them.  Brady will absolutely take care of his boy.  I will also bet Gronk anytime TD and then scale down bets for Gronk 2+ TDs and Gronk 3+ TDs

Andrews I am also going to bet - Harbaugh was the coach who ran the ball purposely when the game was over to get the 100 yd team rushing streak record.  I can see him wanting to get Andrews the record as well.  So probably an Andrews ovr on yards (depending on what it is) and a small sprinkle on an alternate yardage line.

I'll probably throw bets down on Burkhead & Diggs as well.  Coaches can feed them the ball without having to worry about making the playoffs.

Maybe a small sprinkle on some Taylor alternate rushing yards at good numbers.  

I'll stay away from any of the Rams/Cards props because those teams have to stick to the game script

The others listed here are probably stay aways because the numbers needed for incentives or records are so small, they are usually below what the regular prop line is at anyway.  In other words, I'm not betting the standard Adams ovr. 84.5 yards recieving when all he needs is 22 to hit the record. He'll get one catch for 28 yards then sit the rest of the game.

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10 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Awkward Season 4 GIF by The Office

 

How about I save you some money?  Just send me $700. lol

You're welcome for the hundy.

 

Actually when a Line is that significantly lopsided taking the underdog is actually the right play, no matter how remote the probability is that they’d win out right.

Soooooo many unforeseen things can happen  in ball game, a horse race, you name it.

A few years ago I told some guys that Luke Falk and the Jets getting 17 points vs Tom Brady was the lock of the year because the  whole country would be on New England.  
Over 90% of the country actually did bet NE....guess what happened?

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20 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I’m trying not to throw money at it, but Jets +16.5 and the over (40.5) seem pretty likely. The Bills will pull ahead early and get into cruise control, but the Jets are gonna want to be scrappy. I can see them putting a few cheap scores on the board late to feel good about themselves moving forward.

I feel confident Buffalo will cover.  My guess is that Buffalo will "out physical" us in the 1st half and they'll really stick it to us in the 2nd half.  

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21 hours ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

Actually when a Line is that significantly lopsided taking the underdog is actually the right play, no matter how remote the probability is that they’d win out right.

Soooooo many unforeseen things can happen  in ball game, a horse race, you name it.

A few years ago I told some guys that Luke Falk and the Jets getting 17 points vs Tom Brady was the lock of the year because the  whole country would be on New England.  
Over 90% of the country actually did bet NE....guess what happened?

 

Guess what happened today? ?

Channel 9 Wink GIF by The Block

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On 1/8/2022 at 12:54 PM, T0mShane said:

I’m trying not to throw money at it, but Jets +16.5 and the over (40.5) seem pretty likely. The Bills will pull ahead early and get into cruise control, but the Jets are gonna want to be scrappy. I can see them putting a few cheap scores on the board late to feel good about themselves moving forward.


How is Vegas so spot on with this stuff, so often?

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:


How is Vegas so spot on with this stuff, so often?

Billions of dollars worth of computers where EVERY piece of data, no matter how obscure is fed in, (wind will be blowing at 17 mph Southeast, will push blades of grass in that direction, so and so’s Kicker’s FG’s made drops 3% points when that happens, ok move the line 1/2 a point), for them to come up with their number that does it’s best to push the same amount of money on each side of the action.

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