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****Jets Never Ending Season Comes To An End Game Thread****


T0mShane
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4 minutes ago, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

I get the frustration with being a Jets fan, but I just get the ZW hate. He's looking solid mentally, solid in making improvements, and sold as a work ethic and team guy. There is huge hope for him if the team keeps getting pieces. Zach isn't going to get worst, and he's not going to make excuses. The haters are going to have no place to go with it.

It's not hate. That's propaganda. It's the reality that even with the improvement, Wilson probably isn't where Sam Darnold was at the end of his 1st season.. or dozens of other QBs. This is why some of us were annoyed he was anointed the starter. The injury showed he should have sat and been brought in off the bench and slowly segued into being the starter.  He was a much more 'raw' prospect than the Jets have had and they should have been stuck to the realities of that. 

A veteran starter could have taken lumps for about 8 weeks while the rookie coaches figured things out and all the new parts of offensive line running a blocking scheme they're not used to... You also would have had benefits of Wilson (who clearly feels a need to be great) to have less pressure after seeing a middling vet for a few weeks and the Jets season basically 'being over'. Instead, we got a coaching staff that seemed dedicated to putting him on the field for a sink or swim type of training when the team around him was not likely to help him swim.

Wilson improved and that's great, but we've seen this show over and over so watching people act like it means it's just a matter of time before Wilson ascends like it's a given gets pretty annoying. Then you have posters who aggressively attack anyone who doesn't immediately proclaim that Wilson is headed for greatness and you get a fair amount of animosity built up by people advocating that the amount of improvement doesn't guarantee anything. 

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13 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Moses is gonna get paid. based on this year’s performance, he will fetch a king’s ransom.They do have the cap space, that’s true. Good tackles are so hard to find. We’ll see.

It all depends on how the the FO feels about Becton. If they have any doubts on his ability to be ready for next season, or his commitment to football, then it would behoove them to make a play for Moses. But it's a gamble. They could always opt for a cheaper contingency option signing like Moses was this past offseason, but that's more likely to net us another Feeney or GVR rather than another Moses. I'm not even sure who's gonna be available. 

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2 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

Wilson probably isn't where Sam Darnold was at the end of his 1st season.. or dozens of other QBs. This is why some of us were annoyed he was anointed the starter. The injury showed he should have sat and been brought in off the bench and slowly segued into being the starter.  He was a much more 'raw' prospect than the Jets have had and they should have been stuck to the realities of that. 

A veteran starter could have taken lumps for about 8 weeks while the rookie coaches figured things out and all the new parts of offensive line running a blocking scheme they're not used to... You also would have had benefits of Wilson (who clearly feels a need to be great) to have less pressure after seeing a middling vet for a few weeks and the Jets season basically 'being over'. Instead, we got a coaching staff that seemed dedicated to putting him on the field for a sink or swim type of training when the team around him was not likely to help him swim.

Wilson improved and that's great, but we've seen this show over and over so watching people act like it means it's just a matter of time before Wilson ascends like it's a given gets pretty annoying. Then you have posters who aggressively attack anyone who doesn't immediately proclaim that Wilson is headed for greatness and you get a fair amount of animosity built up by people advocating that the amount of improvement doesn't guarantee anything. 

We could go back and forth, but I'll skip that. In short, I think there are reasons to be very hopeful that he is the guy of he future. I'm feeling great moving forward. I think Saleh and JD have a plan, and I think Wilson is our guy.

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18 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

It all depends on how the the FO feels about Becton. If they have any doubts on his ability to be ready for next season, or his commitment to football, then it would behoove them to make a play for Moses. But it's a gamble. They could always opt for a cheaper contingency option signing like Moses was this past offseason, but that's more likely to net us another Feeney or GVR rather than another Moses. I'm not even sure who's gonna be available. 

It’s gonna be one of the hardest decisions JD has to make.

Good, reliable and relatively young ( he’s 30) tackles are hard to come by.

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36 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The offense has looked like this in every Zach Wilson game. The only difference is he stopped throwing it longer than ten yards to limit his interceptions.

To blame this game on Wilson is utterly ridiculous.  He played one of the best teams in the NFL with an OL and WR corps that was 3rd and 4th string.  

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2 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

To blame this game on Wilson is utterly ridiculous.  He played one of the best teams in the NFL with an OL and WR corps that was 3rd and 4th string.  

Where in that post did he blame Wilson for the loss?

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32 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

Look the big stat with Zach was the 9 sacks. It’s a terrible number. For 3 quarters the team was in this game but not because of him. I was hoping he’d end the season with a good game. So there is room for concern and IMO he has to win the job in training camp. In a tough game like this you expect your Qb to find a way to make plays. 

This post is absurd.  Seriously?  Who exactly was he supposed to throw a pass to and when did he have time to day anything at all today?  Besides Wilson, the rest of the team accounted for 23 yards of offense. 

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21 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Top 10 pick for a center would only be viewed favorably in hindsight in comparison to a known bust at another position. 

Nobody uses a top 10 pick on a center. Nobody, ever, in NFL history, and with good reason. Center is a 4th-tier position in terms of importance, and acknowledging Feeney is a sucky one doesn’t change that. Neither does a number of people on a message board overvaluing the position. 

The OL problems today were that the backups at 2 positions were unacceptably bad. Just prior to those starter injuries, so much of the too-quick pressure was because our younger RBs are typically between atrocious and nonexistent in pass protection. It’s one thing to have a single weak link; many teams have that on their OL. When the one (or today two) weak links are so bad the pressure is there far too quickly. e.g. LDT isn’t such a great guard, but even being merely ok it seemed like such a visible improvement over GVR. And when they let pressure through this quickly this often, there usually isn’t much to do with that; especially when compounded with WRs and TEs having trouble getting open in under 4 seconds, and too many drops and/or falling down when they do.

They just weren’t fielding a surrounding NFL cast with this many backups at the same time. 2022 will be another season. In addition to getting starters back on the field, the backups can’t be this bad. I think it was a reasonable effort to have this many experienced veterans as the backups, but failure is failure, and this was failure. 

I get that nobody takes centers, I don’t think they will or should, I also don’t think it’d be as bad a pick as you think so I personally wouldn’t mind. Thus, in the middle.

I hate to hand wave with something this broad and boring, but the NFL sucks at drafting. There are really clear obvious trends they ignore and repeat over and over again because that’s how things are done. So I don’t find trends particularly compelling.

I haven’t done it and don’t have the time right now but I’d be interested in a comparison between hit rate by position (offensive line has a high hit rate) and positional salary. I’d imagine center is a higher floor lower ceiling pick but probably doesn’t do much worse if at all in expected value than say wide receiver where the bust rate is really high and Chase is the only guy drafted in the top half of the first round who was in the top 16 in receiving yards heading into this week. Nobody’s going to complain if they take a WR because of positional value but in terms of hit rate early relative to what teams prioritize at the position it’s borderline irresponsible - especially in this class without a clear cut top guy. I’d be excited about it position wise but it’s probably not great use of draft capital.

I also don’t see a major separation in terms of actual positional or dollar value between the interior offensive line and say a defensive non premium position like off ball linebacker or safety. Between that and offensive line having that nice solid hit rate I would bucket those positions pretty similarly.

And Linderbaum has a pretty unique skill set and fits the scheme perfectly.

That all said, I don’t even think it’ll be a consideration come draft day, and again I’m not advocating for it. I’d expect they’ll sign a right guard, draft a potential center to groom behind McGovern on day three, and sign a tackle or draft one outside the first round.

Again, in the middle. Don’t think they will, don’t think they should, like the player a lot, like the high hit rate on the offensive line, not banging the table for it, wouldn’t be as mad about it as you.

 

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40 minutes ago, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

We could go back and forth, but I'll skip that. In short, I think there are reasons to be very hopeful that he is the guy of he future. I'm feeling great moving forward. I think Saleh and JD have a plan, and I think Wilson is our guy.

No, we could not go back and forth. No offense, but much of the people on here with a rosy outlook is 'want' it to be better without causes that it will be and I suspect yours is much the same. 

Do you have any objective evidence or examples that the rookies are developing better than other rookies (just in the AFC East)? Could you name the rookies on the 53 man rosters of the other AFC East teams without looking it up? 

Objective evidence or examples that Wilson has finished 'ahead' of other rookie QBs previously on the Jets or from his own draft class? Improving from awful to simply abysmal is the Sam Darnold career track. 

Many on here were predicting how great it felt in Adam Gase's 2nd year. What the difference in feeling? Player quotes, analysts, differences in comments on this message board? 

Are you aware that there's been almost no GMs that haven't made the playoffs within 3 years of taking over that ever make it? What's the objective evidence or historical analysis that leads you to believe the Jets and Joe Douglass will buck this trend for over 50 years (in your own words by going 6-8 next season)?

 

There's nothing wrong with hoping. There's nothing wrong with wanting, but there's a lot of confusion on this board that somehow makes it 'likely'. Yes, these things could happen, but it's not likely. That's the point. Let's talk about the positives, sure. Let's just cut the crap on here that positives are anything more than they are and that every team in the league in looking at similar things on their team and many teams have examples of why they should suspect that they are either improving at rate equal than or greater than the Jets are or that the Jets are not improving at a rate great enough to catch up to them. 

This whole positive polly act of, "Well, we could go back and forth, but why" is fine.. just simply admit that you're talking about hope, not reality. 

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6 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

No, we could not go back and forth. No offense, but much of the people on here with a rosy outlook is 'want' it to be better without causes that it will be and I suspect yours is much the same. 

Do you have any objective evidence or examples that the rookies are developing better than other rookies (just in the AFC East)? Could you name the rookies on the 53 man rosters of the other AFC East teams without looking it up? 

Objective evidence or examples that Wilson has finished 'ahead' of other rookie QBs previously on the Jets or from his own draft class? Improving from awful to simply abysmal is the Sam Darnold career track. 

Many on here were predicting how great it felt in Adam Gase's 2nd year. What the difference in feeling? Player quotes, analysts, differences in comments on this message board? 

Are you aware that there's been almost no GMs that haven't made the playoffs within 3 years of taking over that ever make it? What's the objective evidence or historical analysis that leads you to believe the Jets and Joe Douglass will buck this trend for over 50 years (in your own words by going 6-8 next season)?

 

There's nothing wrong with hoping. There's nothing wrong with wanting, but there's a lot of confusion on this board that somehow makes it 'likely'. Yes, these things could happen, but it's not likely. That's the point. Let's talk about the positives, sure. Let's just cut the crap on here that positives are anything more than they are and that every team in the league in looking at similar things on their team and many teams have examples of why they should suspect that they are either improving at rate equal than or greater than the Jets are or that the Jets are not improving at a rate great enough to catch up to them. 

This whole positive polly act of, "Well, we could go back and forth, but why" is fine.. just simply admit that you're talking about hope, not reality. 

Reality:

1. We improved win totals this year with nothing to start the year with.

2.  We have a GM and Coach who are on the same page and have a plan.

3. We have a young QB with the right mental, physical, and team skills. He's going to be good. That is not a hope. He's solid.

What is your fool proof evidence that we shouldn't be thinking the future looks good. It's like you're just playing the "show me proof game" without offering your own perfect proof. 

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1 hour ago, jeremy2020 said:

It's not hate. That's propaganda. It's the reality that even with the improvement, Wilson probably isn't where Sam Darnold was at the end of his 1st season.. or dozens of other QBs. This is why some of us were annoyed he was anointed the starter. The injury showed he should have sat and been brought in off the bench and slowly segued into being the starter.  He was a much more 'raw' prospect than the Jets have had and they should have been stuck to the realities of that. 

A veteran starter could have taken lumps for about 8 weeks while the rookie coaches figured things out and all the new parts of offensive line running a blocking scheme they're not used to... You also would have had benefits of Wilson (who clearly feels a need to be great) to have less pressure after seeing a middling vet for a few weeks and the Jets season basically 'being over'. Instead, we got a coaching staff that seemed dedicated to putting him on the field for a sink or swim type of training when the team around him was not likely to help him swim.

Wilson improved and that's great, but we've seen this show over and over so watching people act like it means it's just a matter of time before Wilson ascends like it's a given gets pretty annoying. Then you have posters who aggressively attack anyone who doesn't immediately proclaim that Wilson is headed for greatness and you get a fair amount of animosity built up by people advocating that the amount of improvement doesn't guarantee anything. 

There are people who exclusively make excuses for Zach, and other who exclusively look for things to trash him with.

The truth is pretty much as you said.  A raw rookie who probably shouldn't have started at the beginning of the year, who later showed he has pretty solid future potential in the league even though he was mostly surrounded by practice squad "weaponz" since his return from injury.

Getting excited for the potential is not the same as anointing him the savior of the Jets' woes.

Trashing on his stat line acting like he hasn't shown pretty dramatic improvement since the year began is equally as unproductive.

As we've known since September, we'll know a lot more next year.

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Look Zach has about 13 starts and we’ve seen improvement in recent weeks since his injury. 13 is a good number of starts. He’s no longer a rookie. Today even Allen had problems with the passing game. Allen also had Diggs not Mims and it’s a big difference. But 9 sacks is way over the line almost an unheard of number. It’s an indicator of problems bad QBs get sacked a lot. I’m a Zach fan but let’s call this for what it is. 

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1 hour ago, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

Reality:

1. We improved win totals this year with nothing to start the year with.

2.  We have a GM and Coach who are on the same page and have a plan.

3. We have a young QB with the right mental, physical, and team skills. He's going to be good. That is not a hope. He's solid.

What is your fool proof evidence that we shouldn't be thinking the future looks good. It's like you're just playing the "show me proof game" without offering your own perfect proof. 

This is the sort of stuff I'm talking about. You failed to answer the questions and then instead offered answers to different questions. You're trying to gaslight people to prop up your own hope. 

1. The Jets under Joe Douglas regressed then improved. What was the win total the year before Joe Douglas became GM? How does that change that next season will be his 3rd year?

2. Being on the same page and having "a" plan automatically produce a playoff berth? 

3. Name the 'right' mental, physical and team skills and why they didn't translate this season or for most of his college career? 

I already presented you with the history of GMs making the playoffs by their 3rd year. I present to you the 4-13 season in which the defense was historically bad. I present to you one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Two teams in the division finished with top 3 defenses (the other team was top 10). 

I'm not asking you to give up hope. I'm simply asking to present it as your hope. 

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7 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

This post is absurd.  Seriously?  Who exactly was he supposed to throw a pass to and when did he have time to day anything at all today?  Besides Wilson, the rest of the team accounted for 23 yards of offense. 

Incredibly absurd. These are the people that watch the game and get mad if their team doesn't go for it on every 4th down regardless of field position. Totally brain dead.

Obviously, to the people with brains, the OL was overmatched, the WRs that wouldn't make the practice squad on most teams, could not get open, and the running game was non existent thanks again to the OL. Despite that I felt like he showed poise, showed grit, and didn't panic or self implode like Darnold or a lesser QB would have. 

I saw a post that said Darnold was ahead in development than Zach by this time. Hogwash. Darnold would have completely self destructed in a game like this and turned the ball over multiple times. 

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9 hours ago, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

Reality:

1. We improved win totals this year with nothing to start the year with.

2.  We have a GM and Coach who are on the same page and have a plan.

3. We have a young QB with the right mental, physical, and team skills. He's going to be good. That is not a hope. He's solid.

What is your fool proof evidence that we shouldn't be thinking the future looks good. It's like you're just playing the "show me proof game" without offering your own perfect proof. 

1.  We signed several free agents and drafted near the top of every round

2. Neither  the GM or the HC are proven at their respective jobs.  The 49ers didn't miss a beat lossing both Saleh and Lefleur

3. Zach is far from being solid.  He has good skill sets and is a good athlete.   He isn't close to a solid NFL starting QB.  

There is no evidence that we should think the future looks good.  We have hope as fans.  Hope isn't evidence.  It's what fans do when their teams suck because there is no alternative accept stop watching which isn't going to happen.  

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10 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

Are you aware that there's been almost no GMs that haven't made the playoffs within 3 years of taking over that ever make it? What's the objective evidence or historical analysis that leads you to believe the Jets and Joe Douglass will buck this trend for over 50 years (in your own words by going 6-8 next season)?

I'm cherry picking I know but he was the first one to come to mind.  It probably deserves a deep dive but I work for a living. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/executives/NewsOz0.htm 

At a certain level, all players, coaches and even executives need to figure it out.  Are the capable of learning?  Did JD get lucky last year?  Maybe?  or maybe him and his staff found a better way integrate the ideas of the new coach.  Either way, I like what I see at the moment.

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11 hours ago, derp said:

I get that nobody takes centers, I don’t think they will or should, I also don’t think it’d be as bad a pick as you think so I personally wouldn’t mind. Thus, in the middle.

I hate to hand wave with something this broad and boring, but the NFL sucks at drafting. There are really clear obvious trends they ignore and repeat over and over again because that’s how things are done. So I don’t find trends particularly compelling.

I haven’t done it and don’t have the time right now but I’d be interested in a comparison between hit rate by position (offensive line has a high hit rate) and positional salary. I’d imagine center is a higher floor lower ceiling pick but probably doesn’t do much worse if at all in expected value than say wide receiver where the bust rate is really high and Chase is the only guy drafted in the top half of the first round who was in the top 16 in receiving yards heading into this week. Nobody’s going to complain if they take a WR because of positional value but in terms of hit rate early relative to what teams prioritize at the position it’s borderline irresponsible - especially in this class without a clear cut top guy. I’d be excited about it position wise but it’s probably not great use of draft capital.

I also don’t see a major separation in terms of actual positional or dollar value between the interior offensive line and say a defensive non premium position like off ball linebacker or safety. Between that and offensive line having that nice solid hit rate I would bucket those positions pretty similarly.

And Linderbaum has a pretty unique skill set and fits the scheme perfectly.

That all said, I don’t even think it’ll be a consideration come draft day, and again I’m not advocating for it. I’d expect they’ll sign a right guard, draft a potential center to groom behind McGovern on day three, and sign a tackle or draft one outside the first round.

Again, in the middle. Don’t think they will, don’t think they should, like the player a lot, like the high hit rate on the offensive line, not banging the table for it, wouldn’t be as mad about it as you.

 

3 of the last 5 1st round centers are busts, and 1 of the 2 non-busts is (was) decent but nowhere near what you want from a 1st round center. There’s no evidence they’re high floor picks. The only one that panned out exactly as hoped was taken by Detroit. The truth is they’d 

One of the benefits of this scheme is mere adequacy is what they need. Anyone watching could see they didn’t have that at a couple OL positions today (including center), but those are backups not starters. 

LDT is a perfect example. I’d say he was about an average RG this year. Not terrible, but honestly he wasn’t particularly good either. Once he stepped in, with several games cohesiveness/progress of the other 5 compared to the start of this season in the new offense, the line looked above average overall. A line with one career-backup UFA at LT, one late UFA who cleared waivers (and who was a poor scheme fit upon arriving) at RT, one center coming off a terrible season, and one 1st round pick rookie LG. Swapping in LDT for GVR at RG made it an above average line until more injuries surfaced.

Among the purposes of what they’re doing is you don’t need individuals beating individuals 1-on-1. For this offense/line, upgrading from McGovern to Linderbaum (assuming he’s even everything people hope, and isn’t going to get overpowered more than before at this level, and isn’t going to lose a lot of mobility if he puts on another 20-30 lbs) isn’t going to make a transformational improvement to the entire offense (and, in turn, the team). 

It’d be a waste of a pick unless comparing it to someone who, with the benefit of hindsight, is an outright bust. If center is deemed that important then ante up for a FA, since the last one who was a 1st team AP FA tipped the scales at $13MM — less than JFM got as an early extension. The team that lost him replaced him with a mid-round nobody...and (with their starting QB in) went 13-3 and their RBBC duo averaged 4.5ypc. 

It’s nowhere near as important as people are making it. If the only other option available to the team was Feeney for 17 games? Sure. Except that’s not the case. 

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57 minutes ago, Biggs said:

There is no evidence that we should think the future looks good.  We have hope as fans.  Hope isn't evidence.  It's what fans do when their teams suck because there is no alternative accept stop watching which isn't going to happen.  

A lot of this depends on ZW.  If he lives up to expectations then the franchise has hope.  If not, though, then we're still a complete mess.  He pretty much only played 1 good game this season (against Tampa).  I will admit I was encouraged by that game as well but it's a bit too soon to feel certain that he's the guy going forward.

Everyone likes to say "baby steps" and I guess that's fine for his rookie season.  But next year we need to see real progress.  Not "at least he didn't turn the ball over!"  This is a #2OA draft pick and this is not the old school NFL where it takes years to turn a franchise around.  Look at what Herbert did for the Chargers in 2 years.  

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1 hour ago, Biggs said:

1.  We signed several free agents and drafted near the top of every round

2. Neither  the GM or the HC are proven at their respective jobs.  The 49ers didn't miss a beat lossing both Saleh and Lefleur

3. Zach is far from being solid.  He has good skill sets and is a good athlete.   He isn't close to a solid NFL starting QB.  

There is no evidence that we should think the future looks good.  We have hope as fans.  Hope isn't evidence.  It's what fans do when their teams suck because there is no alternative accept stop watching which isn't going to happen.  

Agreed that the Jet GM and HC still remain unproven, but it’s unfair to try to compare SF and the Jets since the disparity in talent on their rosters is like night and day.

Wilson showed great improvement post injury  in all facets of the game.  From throwing accurate rockets to vastly improving his short game that historically had Never been a problem, to most importantly improving his mental side of the pro game by taking Only what the opposition was giving him, No INTS in what 5 consecutive games now?  Close to a Jet record, when people on this board were jumping out of windows at the beginning of the year when he tried to win games all by himself on this putrid (for the most part) team, which wasn’t much considering the “talent” he was surrounded with much of the time.

Lets see how he plays with a much upgraded roster around him next year, and dare I say it, maybe even a “playmaker” or two, rare as a dinosaur in Jetland.

Kid has outstanding physical tools, a sharp mind and an extremely high ceiling. Will he realize it?  The jury is out.

Tell me how much better Aaron Rodgers would have looked playing for the Jets yesterday.

I’m more than happy going into the off-season knowing that Zach Wilson’s two best games as a pro in his rookie season were beating one of the top teams in the league in Tennessee and going toe to toe with Tome Brady and a top ranked Tampa D and beating him for 59 minutes and 45 seconds while his #1 receiver was Braxton Berrios.

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7 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

Agreed that the Jet GM and HC still remain unproven, but it’s unfair to try to compare SF and the Jets since the disparity in talent on their rosters is like night and day.

Wilson showed great improvement post injury  in all facets of the game.  From throwing accurate rockets to vastly improving his short game that historically had Never been a problem, to most importantly improving his mental side of the pro game by taking Only what the opposition was giving him, No INTS in what 5 consecutive games now?  Close to a Jet record, when people on this board were jumping out of windows at the beginning of the year when he tried to win games all by himself on this putrid (for the most part) team, which wasn’t much considering the “talent” he was surrounded with much of the time.

Lets see how he plays with a much upgraded roster around him next year, and dare I say it, maybe even a “playmaker” or two, rare as a dinosaur in Jetland.

Kid has outstanding physical tools, a sharp mind and an extremely high ceiling. Will he realize it?  The jury is out.

Tell me how much better Aaron Rodgers would have looked playing for the Jets yesterday.

I’m more than happy going into the off-season knowing that Zach Wilson’s two best games as a pro in his rookie season were beating one of the top teams in the league in Tennessee and going toe to toe with Tome Brady and a top ranked Tampa D and beating him for 59 minutes and 45 seconds while his #1 receiver was Braxton Berrios.

With Rodgers we are right in that game to the very end.  Absurd to think Rodgers doesn't make a huge difference.   Davis Mills threw for 300 yards and 3 TD's yesterday.   Mills has just as much raw talent as Zach and he's playing at a much higher level with an equally crappy roster. 

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26 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

3 of the last 5 1st round centers are busts, and 1 of the 2 non-busts is (was) decent but nowhere near what you want from a 1st round center. There’s no evidence they’re high floor picks. The only one that panned out exactly as hoped was taken by Detroit. The truth is they’d 

One of the benefits of this scheme is mere adequacy is what they need. Anyone watching could see they didn’t have that at a couple OL positions today (including center), but those are backups not starters. 

LDT is a perfect example. I’d say he was about an average RG this year. Not terrible, but honestly he wasn’t particularly good either. Once he stepped in, with several games cohesiveness/progress of the other 5 compared to the start of this season in the new offense, the line looked above average overall. A line with one career-backup UFA at LT, one late UFA who cleared waivers (and who was a poor scheme fit upon arriving) at RT, one center coming off a terrible season, and one 1st round pick rookie LG. Swapping in LDT for GVR at RG made it an above average line until more injuries surfaced.

Among the purposes of what they’re doing is you don’t need individuals beating individuals 1-on-1. For this offense/line, upgrading from McGovern to Linderbaum (assuming he’s even everything people hope, and isn’t going to get overpowered more than before at this level, and isn’t going to lose a lot of mobility if he puts on another 20-30 lbs) isn’t going to make a transformational improvement to the entire offense (and, in turn, the team). 

It’d be a waste of a pick unless comparing it to someone who, with the benefit of hindsight, is an outright bust. If center is deemed that important then ante up for a FA, since the last one who was a 1st team AP FA tipped the scales at $13MM — less than JFM got as an early extension. The team that lost him replaced him with a mid-round nobody...and (with their starting QB in) went 13-3 and their RBBC duo averaged 4.5ypc. 

It’s nowhere near as important as people are making it. If the only other option available to the team was Feeney for 17 games? Sure. Except that’s not the case. 

I mean, you’re kind of cherry picking with three of the last five, right, because the six or seven before that worked out. Sometimes late round one is where teams reach for guys - partially because they view center as safe I’d guess - there also aren’t many. The most recent one, Ruiz, was really regarded as an early round two prospect for example. 

Linderbaum is consistently ranked as a top half of the first round, sometimes top ten prospect despite people understanding the lack of positional value. He’s the best center prospect to come out in a while.

I’ve already said Linderbaum doesn’t look 290, certainly doesn’t play 290 and there’s nothing about having issues with power in college. Maybe I’m remembering wrong but strength was a concern Bradbury and people thought he’d overcome it with mobility. College measurements are usually old, if Linderbaum is actually 290 it’d certainly change how he’s regarded as a prospect.

My understanding is you’re understating his ceiling too - the upside is that he can reach guys on outside zone plays other centers can’t and so you can call stuff other teams can’t run which makes the run game harder to prepare for. It’s not mind bending but that could be a big deal for a team that takes him.

Most of the NFL has their better players coming outside the first round. The positions that are exceptions are QB (Jets won’t be taking one), T (think we both agree the Jets aren’t taking one), edge (very good chance the Jets take one but they’ll have another pick), and DT (Jets have taken plenty). Shy of another DT a non edge pick with the second first rounder will be a position that’s easy to address outside the first round. That’s just kind of the situation they’re in. You can argue degrees of salary and we can go in circles about hit rates but it’ll be non premium (S, LB), WR which is a position that has a super high bust rate in the first round and most of the league’s best players are taken day two (or later in the first round than they’ve taken them), CB which falls in between LB/S and WR in terms of when hits get drafted as some teams find them late and some early but would surprise me as it seems in this mixed coverage system they fall into the try to grab them later category, and there’s no RB/TE in play till day two but also non premium. None of those particularly excite me either - except the irresponsible one (WR) - so in a draft I’m going to feel pretty meh about at least one of the first rounders unless they trade into the late teens or twenties and draft a WR or maybe a linebacker a center doesn’t bother me so much since my expectations are pretty low. Especially when the center is a prospect I like.

Again - I don’t think they will or should take him, I just wouldn’t mind personally. It’s the same as Treylon Burks - irresponsible pick, like they player and the scheme fit, not my job on the line, wouldn’t mind it. I’ve also been disappointed so much with the Jets’ draft choices over the years I’ll take a prospect I like over another average athlete at defensive tackle who’s “the best player in the draft”.

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19 minutes ago, Biggs said:

With Rodgers we are right in that game to the very end.  Absurd to think Rodgers doesn't make a huge difference.   Davis Mills threw for 300 yards and 3 TD's yesterday.   Mills has just as much raw talent as Zach and he's playing at a much higher level with an equally crappy roster. 

Rodgers was going to catch his own passes?  The Jets had #6’s at receiver yesterday, they were in the game for 3 Qtrs, and no I’m not saying Zach Wilson is comparable to Aaron Rodgers at this point, I’m just saying that yesterday’s game could have been a white flag game at the outset.  Sanchez and Darnold probably lose 41 zip.

The Kid has made very significant strides.  I recently read that he had 6 passes that he hit where the receiver was stopped at the 1 yard line, you can add that to this.  Exciting to think about what next year will bring.

 

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13 minutes ago, derp said:

I mean, you’re kind of cherry picking with three of the last five, right, because the six or seven before that worked out. Sometimes late round one is where teams reach for guys - partially because they view center as safe I’d guess - there also aren’t many. The most recent one, Ruiz, was really regarded as an early round two prospect for example. 

Linderbaum is consistently ranked as a top half of the first round, sometimes top ten prospect despite people understanding the lack of positional value. He’s the best center prospect to come out in a while.

I’ve already said Linderbaum doesn’t look 290, certainly doesn’t play 290 and there’s nothing about having issues with power in college. Maybe I’m remembering wrong but strength was a concern Bradbury and people thought he’d overcome it with mobility. College measurements are usually old, if Linderbaum is actually 290 it’d certainly change how he’s regarded as a prospect.

My understanding is you’re understating his ceiling too - the upside is that he can reach guys on outside zone plays other centers can’t and so you can call stuff other teams can’t run which makes the run game harder to prepare for. It’s not mind bending but that could be a big deal for a team that takes him.

Most of the NFL has their better players coming outside the first round. The positions that are exceptions are QB (Jets won’t be taking one), T (think we both agree the Jets aren’t taking one), edge (very good chance the Jets take one but they’ll have another pick), and DT (Jets have taken plenty). Shy of another DT a non edge pick with the second first rounder will be a position that’s easy to address outside the first round. That’s just kind of the situation they’re in. You can argue degrees of salary and we can go in circles about hit rates but it’ll be non premium (S, LB), WR which is a position that has a super high bust rate in the first round and most of the league’s best players are taken day two (or later in the first round than they’ve taken them), CB which falls in between LB/S and WR in terms of when hits get drafted as some teams find them late and some early but would surprise me as it seems in this mixed coverage system they fall into the try to grab them later category, and there’s no RB/TE in play till day two but also non premium. None of those particularly excite me either - except the irresponsible one (WR) - so in a draft I’m going to feel pretty meh about at least one of the first rounders unless they trade into the late teens or twenties and draft a WR or maybe a linebacker a center doesn’t bother me so much since my expectations are pretty low. Especially when the center is a prospect I like.

Again - I don’t think they will or should take him, I just wouldn’t mind personally. It’s the same as Treylon Burks - irresponsible pick, like they player and the scheme fit, not my job on the line, wouldn’t mind it. I’ve also been disappointed so much with the Jets’ draft choices over the years I’ll take a prospect I like over another average athlete at defensive tackle who’s “the best player in the draft”.

4 of the last 5 first round centers not panning out as hoped isn't cherry-picking. 

Power in college isn't the same as power at the pro level when you're surrendering that much weight. The last I looked, the only huge-man NT he's faced is a bust recruit who's not even a starter. 

If the Jets take him, a year after failing to offer a 1st team AP center $14.5MM (a solid $2MM/yr more than he got from the LAC), then Douglas should be fired. McGovern could've moved to guard for the year, and a Linsley-McGovern duo would've resulted in a net ~$6MM in spending by dropping his then-planned spending of at least two of: GVR ($3.5MM), Feeney ($4MM), and Lewis ($3-6MM). After that McGovern's guarantees are over.

Granted they're in the position they're in now not the position they were in a year earlier, but surely he can add and would have seen that himself. In seeing that, he still chose the path he did, which suggests he isn't that big on burning a 1st round pick on a center. Let alone a top 10 overall pick, which his just nuts. 

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9 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

4 of the last 5 first round centers not panning out as hoped isn't cherry-picking. 

Power in college isn't the same as power at the pro level when you're surrendering that much weight. The last I looked, the only huge-man NT he's faced is a bust recruit who's not even a starter. 

If the Jets take him, a year after failing to offer a 1st team AP center $14.5MM (a solid $2MM/yr more than he got from the LAC), then Douglas should be fired. McGovern could've moved to guard for the year, and a Linsley-McGovern duo would've resulted in a net ~$6MM in spending by dropping his then-planned spending of at least two of: GVR ($3.5MM), Feeney ($4MM), and Lewis ($3-6MM). After that McGovern's guarantees are over.

Granted they're in the position they're in now not the position they were in a year earlier, but surely he can add and would have seen that himself. In seeing that, he still chose the path he did, which suggests he isn't that big on burning a 1st round pick on a center. Let alone a top 10 overall pick, which his just nuts. 

Semantics or not you chose the cut off that supports your argument, so just own that, and it’s three at best.

Your second paragraph is just restating what I said about his weight. If he’s 290 there’s a question about whether or not that lack of issue translates. If he’s north of 300, which I think he is, it’s less worth digging into. You can make the “college is different” argument for literally every player.

Isn’t part of the issue that offensive linemen don’t want to come to the Jets? Same thing with Thuney. Overpaying free agents isn’t a prudent strategy either - if that’s the one you prefer that’s fine but that doesn’t make it good business.

I think you’re largely arguing with the fans who think they should, will, need to take Linderbaum at ten through your back and forth with me. I also think you’re coming off years of fans not understanding why the team didn’t trade down to take the center who was once ranked as a first round pick in August even though he’s got a fourth round grade by draft day and it clouds the board love of Linderbaum - who again is legitimately ranked as a top ten prospect by some people. I’ve argued against taking that crappy center in past years and I’ve come around on Linderbaum not making sense but he is legitimately an excellent prospect and an ideal scheme fit.

Again, don’t think they will or should take him but I like the prospect and there’s really not much they can do this year that’s prudent in the first round. Much more of a tossing my hands up with their draft situation than anything.

Put a different way I guess - I think our difference in opinion is more you having a higher opinion of other paths they could take in the draft than it is me viewing a top ten center favorably. I understand there’s no precedent - the Jets have a weird set of needs for the top ten and this draft is very weak.

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2 hours ago, derp said:

Semantics or not you chose the cut off that supports your argument, so just own that, and it’s three at best.

Your second paragraph is just restating what I said about his weight. If he’s 290 there’s a question about whether or not that lack of issue translates. If he’s north of 300, which I think he is, it’s less worth digging into. You can make the “college is different” argument for literally every player.

Isn’t part of the issue that offensive linemen don’t want to come to the Jets? Same thing with Thuney. Overpaying free agents isn’t a prudent strategy either - if that’s the one you prefer that’s fine but that doesn’t make it good business.

I think you’re largely arguing with the fans who think they should, will, need to take Linderbaum at ten through your back and forth with me. I also think you’re coming off years of fans not understanding why the team didn’t trade down to take the center who was once ranked as a first round pick in August even though he’s got a fourth round grade by draft day and it clouds the board love of Linderbaum - who again is legitimately ranked as a top ten prospect by some people. I’ve argued against taking that crappy center in past years and I’ve come around on Linderbaum not making sense but he is legitimately an excellent prospect and an ideal scheme fit.

Again, don’t think they will or should take him but I like the prospect and there’s really not much they can do this year that’s prudent in the first round. Much more of a tossing my hands up with their draft situation than anything.

Put a different way I guess - I think our difference in opinion is more you having a higher opinion of other paths they could take in the draft than it is me viewing a top ten center favorably. I understand there’s no precedent - the Jets have a weird set of needs for the top ten and this draft is very weak.

I had a decent look at where centers come from & posted it in the 2nd half of this season. I don't have the link handy but it's still on JN if you care to look. 

It looked at a lot more than an arbitrary cutoff date of 1st round centers, designed to make a single point. Most starting centers do not come from round 1; on the contrary, it's unusual. Inside the top 10 it's nonexistent in NFL history.

Further, the contracts these guys get as veterans says what every team thinks of their starting center: it's the least valuable and important position on the OL, unless you're maybe specifically comparing it to a team's #2 guard. If it was secretly the most important (or as some mistakenly think, the 2nd most important OL position after LT), this woudn't have escaped being noticed by every GM and HC and OLC on every team every year going back decades.

I think taking a top 10 center would only look favorable with the benefit of hindsight, in place of a bust they drafted instead. But again, even that would have a * next to the hindsight outlook, since there'd still be a better and more valuable player to have taken over a center anyway.

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9 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I had a decent look at where centers come from & posted it in the 2nd half of this season. I don't have the link handy but it's still on JN if you care to look. 

It looked at a lot more than an arbitrary cutoff date of 1st round centers, designed to make a single point. Most starting centers do not come from round 1; on the contrary, it's unusual. Inside the top 10 it's nonexistent in NFL history.

Further, the contracts these guys get as veterans says what every team thinks of their starting center: it's the least valuable and important position on the OL, unless you're maybe specifically comparing it to a team's #2 guard. If it was secretly the most important (or as some mistakenly think, the 2nd most important OL position after LT), this woudn't have escaped being noticed by every GM and HC and OLC on every team every year going back decades.

I think taking a top 10 center would only look favorable with the benefit of hindsight, in place of a bust they drafted instead. But again, even that would have a * next to the hindsight outlook, since there'd still be a better and more valuable player to have taken over a center anyway.

Regardless of why that was the cutoff it was the most convenient.

Most starting centers come outside round one is because very few centers are taken inside round one. That’s not related to hit rate. You’re also always going to run into sample size issues with centers because there are so few of them.

Your asterisk comment is similar to the translation from comment one. You can give most first round players that asterisk. I’d also directly state what I’ve I guess danced around which is that, as you repeat your comment regarding outright busts…lots of first round picks are outright busts. That’s part of the point.

You’re otherwise either rephrasing things you’ve said, saying things I’ve said, or just actually saying the exact same thing over again. So I’ll just say my perspective largely remains the same. And I’ll repeat that part of my perspective is that I don’t think the Jets will or should take Linderbaum - I just as a fan would not mind because I don’t see other good options. This is more green is my favorite color than 2+2=4.

And I’ll add that my perspective regarding Linderbaum largely rooted in this team’s current roster construction as it relates to this current draft, which is the part of our back and forth you’ve largely ignored but is extremely relevant in the context of talking about taking a player in this draft. There just aren’t a lot of good fits. Talking about no centers being drafted in the top ten or center contracts doesn’t change that.

To that I suppose I’ll reluctantly ask if you think the Jets would be dramatically better off taking a more premium non premium position or if there’s a path to a second premium position (besides edge) you see that I don’t with this roster?

 

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19 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The offense has looked like this in every Zach Wilson game. The only difference is he stopped throwing it longer than ten yards to limit his interceptions.

Who do we have thats healthy and can get open deep?  Our top 4 WRs are on the shelf or IR.  

Did you watch the game yesterday?   The only guy getting open was Crowder and then he got hurt!    And he was running for his life to the tune of 10 sacks!    Jesus youre a hard critic.  
 

At least he figured out how to use what is available.  Maybe next year he ll learn how to throw it and then go catch it himself

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